Friday December 6 2024 Forecast (6:49AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Cold weather is ours for the next couple days. It will be mainly dry with a northwesterly air flow and I cannot rule out a few isolated snow showers. A wave of low pressure is set to move quickly across northern New England early Sunday, and the warm front from this system will produce a swath of fluffy snow with a minor accumulation in much of the region before we clear out during the day on Sunday. We enter another period of unsettled weather early next week. The trend indicates chilly air tough to dislodge. This means that precipitation that arrives on Monday will probably be in the form of snow/mix over some interior areas and is more likely to be rain at the coast, and even after that moves off on Tuesday, low level moisture will likely keep us socked in with clouds and drizzle Tuesday, maybe even some freezing drizzle with cold air trapped over the interior. These details can be brought into better focus as we get closer to the event.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 29-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 20.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill as low as 10.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 29-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Light snow arriving overnight, especially from the I-90 belt northward. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy early with light snow ending – accumulation a coating to 2 inches across the region, with above 1 inch amounts most likely north of I-90. A mix of clouds and sun mid morning on. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives during the afternoon but may be mixed with snow/sleet/ice over some interior locations north of I-90. Highs 35-42 interior valleys, 43-50 elsewhere, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N to NE under 10 MPH interior valleys, E to SE 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 35-42 interior valley, 43-50 elsewhere. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. A slight chance of rain. Temperatures remain generally steady. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

A stronger push of southerly wind December 11 as low pressure tracks by to the west with rain showers likely. Cloudy start then clearing December 12 with a wind shift to northwest and colder trend. Fair, seasonable late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

More of a west to northwest flow and variable but mostly seasonable temperatures expected during this period with a minor precipitation threat mid to late period.

52 thoughts on “Friday December 6 2024 Forecast (6:49AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Only got to 30 this morning. I expected lower. Big woof.

    We’ll see tonight. I certainly expect colder.

  4. NOTE: I went for the “wetter” scenario for the first part of the unsettled stretch. There is a distinct possibility that portion of the stretch is being overplayed by guidance and it’s far less of a deal. I’ll keep an eye on this, but don’t be surprised if the next update cuts back on the Monday thing, and even allows for sun before the clouds come in, lighter precipitation, and a “nicer” Tuesday than I have written above. The entire thing might turn into a kinda-cloudy-light-mixed-precip beginning and one glorified cold frontal passage later Wednesday.

  7. Thanks, TK!

    Friday of a very long week!!

    10 more wake-ups till Holiday Break, Tom! Woo-Hoo! 🙂

    1. Very much looking forward to that !!!!!

      If our district had started before Labor Day and got those 3 days in, we could have a 2 week break and STILL be 1 day ahead of where we will be. Instead, we have to come back for Thursday and Friday, Jan 2nd and 3rd.

      All because the union and the leadership team negotiated to choose start dates for the school year based on when Labor Day falls. Not very smart, in my opinion.

      1. So do we. But’s only two days. We can do that. I’d rather do January 2 and 3 rather than June 20 and 23, especially in my retirement year! 🙂

  8. Thanks TK.

    The 2024-25 Boston vs. Worcester “snow rivalry” begins: ❄️

    Worcester 6.6”
    Boston 0.0”

    Worcester out to its usual head start. 😉

    1. Well the average snowfall for these 2 places is quite different, so that’s like an annual game between a top college team and a so-so high school team. 🙂

  10. Hmmm Temperature dropped here to 29 at 7:45 AM
    and now at 9:30 AM is it all the way up to 30. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. To me, I find it strange that these clippers seem to deliver snow
    to SNE even while passing well to the North. I find this to be
    a bit unusual, FWIW. 🙂

  17. Interesting FB post from Pete.

    Head scratcher here…

    Last week I was home alone with the dog when it sounded like something hit the house with a thud. It was brief and nothing rattled. I thought nothing of it, but I got a note from a viewer in Keene, NH who had the same thing happen last Friday the 29th. I confirmed these were not earthquakes. My guess: TINY meteoroid airburst or “space junk’ reentry shockwave?? ‍

  18. Very brisk outside to say the least. Going to sturbridge village by candlelight and will be wearing 50 layers and making my own warm ecosystem with said layers hopefully. lol

  19. Thanks TK.

    My folks in Wrentham sent me their “first snow” picture yesterday, looked to be a solid inch or so, very festive 🙂

    Relative to recent years in particular, you can’t ask for much more in terms of early season cold across the East. Obviously the I-95 snow fans would’ve liked for something to take advantage of it for the coastal areas, but again, it’s early and major I-95 corridor snowfall is really not favored climatologically before 12/5. Good to see the drought getting dented here and there as well, that’ll still continue to take time but the worst is over.

    The Arctic/Canadian air is about to go on extended hiatus though. Very Pacific-dominated pattern coming up for both Canada and the CONUS, quite possibly through Christmas or beyond. Doesn’t necessarily mean “torch”, though you’ll see that said, but >90% of the CONUS including SNE will see + temperature anomalies, in some cases fairly significant, the next 3 weeks. SNE snow chances certainly aren’t zero over that time either, but White Christmas odds will run below normal…

    1. This was the first time this century that Boston’s high temp was below 40 on the first 3 days of December. In fact, it’s the first time since 1989 this has been the case. 🙂

      1. Boring? No. A lot of changes to track already.
        And you forget, “warmer” in the winter can present many kinds of potentials for varying types of precipitation. Don’t just judge it based on exactly where you are. This is a region. 🙂

    1. Then let’s go with that model, much like the HRRR last event! Maybe coastal areas overproduce for a change. If nothing else, Boston (and Quincy) can at least get “measurable” snowfall. 🙂 ❄️

  21. Since moving to Quincy, I have witnessed the most beautiful sunsets and today’s was no exception. The crescent moon in the western sky once again was a nice touch (the “pierre de resistance” if you will). 🙂

  22. From Google’s DeepMind project we are seeing an AI weather forecasting model, GenCast. It provides an ensemble forecast and the claim is that it forecasts 15 days out and is better than existing models. (GenCast is not Google’s 1st attempt at this.)

    In one experiment, the model collected 40 years of historical data from 1979 to 2018 and used it to project weather in 2019. Then the results were compared to the ECWMF ensemble (ENS). The claim is that GenCast performed much better in terms of accuracy.

    This is where things get cloudy (no pun intended). I get very uneasy with this stuff. They are comparing an AI model, GenCast, to the ECWMF at a point when ECWMF was just beginning an AI push. I believe the ECWMF got rolling with AI in 2023 with its AIFS (AI-based Forecasting System).

    I like reading about technical progress, but I usually remain very suspect when it comes to self-proclaimed glory in scientific fields. Hopefully there are others on this blog who know more about this than I do.

  23. From JR. Bluesky

    Last winter (Dec 1-Feb 29), Boston only had 10 *cold days* for the entire winter!

    We’ve already had 5 *cold days* in the young winter season (all this week)!

      2. Meteorological winter runs from December 1st through the end of February. Meteorologists, climatologists, and a few in the food growing industry use this definition.

      3. The person who sent that knows that, which is why they noted specifically Dec 1 thru Feb 29, which for climate purposes is known as “meteorological winter”. It’s nothing new. 🙂

  24. HRRR 6z looks snowy for a lot of the area later tonight/overnight. Nothing crazy but enough to be festive?

      1. If you have tracked the NAM (especially the 12km) lately, it has been “losing” precipitation in its simulation inside 48 hours. I’m not sure what’s up with this, but I wish they’d just discontinue that particular model sooner rather than later. Stick with 3km, refine and improve. Shorter range guidance should be tested to 2km at this point.

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