Saturday December 7 2024 Forecast (7:56AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A west northwest flow of cold air and a passing disturbance turns what moisture is in the air a few thousand feet up into areas of clouds today. Sunrise this morning presented an opportunity for me to see a sunlit batch of snow virga (which I photographed), and this indicates that these clouds can produce a little flurry of snow in a few places if the flakes can overcome drier air near the ground, so I leave that slight chance in the forecast today. Tonight, a fast moving low pressure area moves our way via the Great Lakes. A warm front ahead of the system will generate a swath of snow across the region, producing a minor accumulation, especially from I-90 northward. The combination of less intensity and slightly milder air nearer the South Coast lessens the ability for snow to accumulate down that way. This system exits Sunday morning and we see fair weather return for the day. But our pattern is also injected with systems from an active Pacific jet stream and the next one moves in by later Monday. The set-up in the atmosphere will be a little more complex for the arrival of this system. While a weak cold front drops through the region as the Sunday system departs, it will sit to our south and try to be lifted back through as a warm front as the next low pressure area approaches later Monday, but will struggle to do so as low level cold will be hard or impossible to push out of the way, especially over inland locations. This means when that area of precipitation moves in, while warmer air aloft means it likely falls as rain in coastal areas up through the I-95 belt, inland areas to the northwest can see a variety of precipitation. And while this does not look like a big precipitation producer, even modest amounts of frozen or freezing precipitation will cause some travel trouble. I’ll take a shot at pinpointing this in detail on tomorrow’s update. This thrust of moisture exits by early Tuesday, and it looks like between that and the next Pacific system, much of our region will be sitting just north of a frontal boundary with a chilly, raw day Tuesday with stubborn cloud cover and even some drizzle around. We may have to watch surface temperatures over inland valleys for potential freezing drizzle. Again, I’ll revisit this potential tomorrow and try to detail it. This is particularly important because if we should see a slightly more defined low pressure area along the frontal boundary that gets to our east, it could pull in a little bit of dry air and thin out or even break up the overcast for a while that day, and it would be less “dank” than I’m predicting on this post. Finally, a frontal boundary will approach from the west Wednesday. A southerly air flow should finally be strong enough to push warmer air into the entire region at least for a few hours while a wave or two of low pressure pass by just to our west. This will bring widespread rain showers to the region, which provide further benefit in reducing the drought.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Very slight chance of brief passing snow flurries. Highs 29-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Light snow from late evening on, arriving from west northwest to east southeast. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy early morning with snow ending – accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches except for under 1/2 southeastern MA and RI. Clearing thereafter. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives during the afternoon but may be mixed with snow/sleet/ice over some interior locations north of I-90. Highs 33-40 interior valleys, 40-47 elsewhere, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N to NE under 10 MPH interior valleys, E to SE 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain likely. Temperatures generally steady 33-40 interior valleys to 40-47 elsewhere. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. Highs 35-42 interior valleys, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts along the coast and in elevated locations.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

A strong cold front passes by early morning December 12 and we’ll have to watch for rain ending as a mix/snow if the cold air arrives quickly enough. Remainder of December 12 trends drier but windy and turning colder. Generally fair and seasonably chilly weather expected December 13-14. Watch for a minor system to bring a precipitation threat December 15-16 (though probably not that entire time frame).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

This outlook brings us through the final few days of astronomical autumn up to the winter solstice. Currently, the pattern looks fairly quiet overall with perhaps one minor system / precipitation threat in the December 18-20 window. I realize this is a broad window of time but guidance in medium range struggles to accurately simulate which disturbances may have noticeable impact in any given region. While the pattern does not look persistently cold, it doesn’t look warm either. So for now let’s just say “variable / seasonable”!

69 thoughts on “Saturday December 7 2024 Forecast (7:56AM)”

    1. Yes, it will be pretty accurate. And this system, unlike the last one, will have a fluff factor as temps will be considerably colder in comparison.

      1. Cool. Did they make any changes to the HRRR? Why so accurate all of a sudden or has it gradually become more
        accurate? I remember not too long ago, SAK and yourself regularly trashed that model. 🙂

  3. From WGC…

    December 7 1941: The War Department Airway Weather Report for Hickam Field (Pearl Harbor), Honolulu, Hawaii, shows benign weather prior to the attack. Temperatures were in the lower 70s. The wind was from the east northeast, and there were a few cumulus clouds around. There were no visibility obstructions. Then, an observation noted “obstructions to visibility at this . . . ” followed by illegible writing over writing, followed by misspelling of “terrified”. Is it possible “obstructions” referred to smoke? Weather observer PFC Sherman Levine from Chicago, Illinois, was killed in the attack.

    1. Watched the 2019 version of the movie MIDWAY yesterday.
      EXCELLENT movie btw. Well worth a look.

      The powers to be just wouldn’t listen at all. What a shame.
      They sure as hell listened when it came to Midway. Midway was likely the turning point in the whole war with Japan.

      1. I meant they wouldn’t listen about Pearl Harbor. There were staff in intelligence that warned of a possible attack from Japan, but no one would listen. They listened about Midway.

        The American intelligence was so good, that they caught Japan by total surprise and inflicted so much damage to the Japanese fleet that they had to retreat.

  7. According to Jacob this morning: 1,016 days (and counting) since Boston’s last 4”+ snowfall ❄️.

    I am now wondering if it’s approaching a record.

        1. It’s hard to pick out any one stat for one area and label it, but scientifically, it’s a combination of many factors.

          We are still not in a “snow drought” nearly as long as the one from the end of the 1970s to the early 1990s. But media never mentions that. 🙂

          Near-coast snowfall is very possibly less in recent years due, in part, to the +AMO. Another factor: We’re in solar max. Look at history regarding those. Two examples of many.

          1. Thank you.
            I understand it is hard to say, but I am concerned
            that more and more may be attributed to “Climate Change”. The Earth is warming.

            We shall see going forward. 🙂 🙂

            1. Long term patterns will cause redistribution of trends. This will happen with or without warming, so it’ll be impossible to say really for sure until we can look back on it with a lot more info than we have now.

              I mean it’s not highly unusual to have some lean years after what was just the snowiest 30 year period on record (yes, for Boston).

        2. While there is no question natural cycles enter in. It was my sense that Harvey thinks more climate change. We have been watching warming for decades now and oddly can’t see it.

    1. As of now, it looks that way, but one never knows. Something sneaky could occur, plus you know how notorious these models are in the long range. 🙂

    1. Because you think my forecast is going to be incorrect. 🙂
      J/K .. New HRRR supports my discussion above.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
        Well I am not impressed by the 15Z HRRR. 🙂
        Perhaps you are. 🙂

        We’ll know tomorrow AM.

        At this point does it matter?

        I am an absolute PESSIMIST, if you haven’t gathered that already. 🙂

          1. ha ha ha
            But I am enjoying it.
            If it snows tonight, great! If it doesn’t, who cares. It’s not like we’d be missing a FOOT snowstorm. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. The best part of your being a pessimist is when you get excited as the event is happening. It brings an extra big smile to me

              1. I’m tellin’ ya, if WHW was a sit-com, Dave would win the “who’s your favorite character” question on social media. HAHAHA

  15. Even though today is the 7th day of “meteorological winter” I still see plenty of insects buzzing around in the direct sunlight.

    Maybe it’s always happened in the past but I don’t recall this back when I was a kid.

  18. Thanks, TK!

    Tonight and tomorrow are the earliest sunsets of the year: 4:14:46 pm here in Taunton!

    Monday’s sunset: 4:14:48 am. Breakout the sun block (SPF 50) 🙂

      1. How about this one for today and tomorrow, Fairbanks, Alaska. Talk about a short day

        10:40 AM
        Sunday, December 8, 2024 (AKST)
        Sunrise in Fairbanks, AK
        2:48 PM
        Saturday, December 7, 2024 (AKST)
        Sunset in Fairbanks, AK

  20. Watching midway. Thank you for the suggestion JPD. I’m not sure which version. Is there more than one. It’s the one Netflix just added

      1. If you are watching on NEtflix select English subtitles. I had to use that to see what the Japanese were saying.
        And yes, you have the correct version.

  21. The B’s played HOCKEY this afternoon. No, it wasn’t their greatest game but they got on a roll in the 3rd period an in OT. First time they won 4 in a row this year!

  22. I need a hallmark movie after that. I think I went through a box of tissues for the very last when they showed and credited each hero of so so many who were lost

    2. We definitely need that, but I have a feeling that system is going to under-perform model projection.

  28. The EURO weeklies/control is showing a rather active/snowy feel to it.

    In terms of climate change and snowfall, vs natural cycles and snowfall.

    It is a combination and different patterns can equal different results.

    1. Climate change is making it generally warmer making it harder for sustained cold over large areas
    2. More extremes, Cold and hot but less in between and the heat being longer and easier to achieve than the cold.

    Natural cycles, we tend to go through 10 year cycles in terms of snowfall and this can be linked to certain telloconnections and SST orientations.

    For example over the past 5 years we have had -PDO which favors below normal snowfall. The positive PDO is linked to snowier periods.
    This year is also the first year in many in which we have a weak ENSO event on either side, our better snowfall years has been linked to weaker ENSO events generally speaking. This is another aspect of climate change as the planet tries to balance itself out as it likes to balance itself more extreme La-Nina’s and EL-Ninos will become more likely and it becomes more apparent when you take out the overall warmer background state. It is a mix of climate change and natural cycles, but the cycles are going to be more extreme and pronounced. If you have a cycle that tends to support warmth and less snow, you get your 2012 type season, if you get your snowier patterns, you can get your 2014 or you can get that year in which there is no winter but then you get that 6 week period of non-stop snow. The big problem I can see is that it will become harder to keep the snow cover on the ground. We might get the snowfall, but it won’t stay on the ground and provide the protection that vegetation needs from the cold exposure and keep the water tables up.

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