Monday December 9 2024 Forecast (7:53AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Unsettled weather is the theme into midweek. Today, an early nice sunrise for many will be replaced quickly by advancing clouds. Rain arrives ahead of a warm front which will never quite make it through the region, at least not before a very lengthy delay. As is typical, cold air trapped at the surface will allow it to warm aloft but not really at ground level, and this will be most evident over interior locations, particularly well north and northwest of Boston. Precipitation arrives later today in the form of rain for most of the region, but it will be cold enough for some wet snow over south central and southwestern NH and far north central MA, particularly higher elevations. Also elevated valleys stand the highest chance of seeing some icing at times this evening and even into a portion of Tuesday as the coldest air remains trapped right at the ground, and the lowest temperatures will be around the freezing point. Even when the main precipitation shield exists and we’re left with low clouds and areas of drizzle Tuesday, with the help of a weak secondary low pressure area just off our coast, there can be some pockets of freezing drizzle in those same locations. Elsewhere, above freezing temperatures will prevent that. It will not be until Wednesday, when a deeper trough of low pressure approaches. A stronger southerly air flow ahead of this will push the stubborn warm front through the region, but at the same time a stronger cold front will be approaching from the west, with a couple areas of low pressure to slide up along the boundary, passing just to our west as they move north northeastward. This brings in warmer air, but also a stronger south wind, along with waves of widespread rain showers. Even embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in this set-up. Finally, the cold front moves across the region late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This puts an end to the rainfall, and I do think it happens quickly enough so that we won’t see cold enough air for snow to mix in before precipitation ends. However, a fairly rapid temperature drop can cause icy areas to form where the ground is wet from rain by the time many people are heading out on Thursday morning. Keep this in mind! We’ll have windy, colder, generally dry weather during the day Thursday, which continues with some modest wind diminishment on Friday. While it looks mainly dry both days, I can’t rule out a few stray snow showers.

TODAY: Any early sun is fleeting as it becomes overcast from west to east. Rain arrives later, but snow/ice likely south central and southwestern NH and adjacent north central MA. Highs 33-40 southwestern NH and north central MA, 40-47 elsewhere, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N to NE under 10 MPH interior valleys, E to SE 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain likely evening including areas of icing in portions of south central NH and far north central MA. Lows 31-38 west of the I-95 belt – coldest in valley areas, 39-46 elsewhere – mildest South Coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. Highs 34-41 interior valleys, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 with gusts to 30 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Rain showers ending with clouds breaking overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 15-35 MPH, shifting to W, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Main precipitation threats December 15 (minor) and December 17. Up and down temperatures averaging around normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Main precipitation threats December 20 (minor) and December 22, but lower confidence with this being further into the future. Temperatures near to below normal.

59 thoughts on “Monday December 9 2024 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  6. FWIW, the EURO snow threat for the 22nd has gone
    bye-bye. There’s a big surprise.

    I see an awful lot of systems that “appear” to want to track
    through the Great Lakes. Nice. Perfect for SNOW in New England!!!! ))!@(#)(*!@)(*#)(!@&*#)(*!@()#*!)(@#*)(!@#*)

    1. True, but if earlier storms in the short term are poorly modeled either on track or intensity, then that can throw everything off in the medium and long range.

      1. Of course and therein lies the problem with medium and long range models. We’ll just have to wait and see, but honestly, do you expect anything at all between now and Christmas?

        I, for one, do not. I’m just hoping for a sneak snow event
        just before Christmas. 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK

    Remembering the December 9, 2005 snowstorm, one of the fiercest weather events that I have experienced in my lifetime. A cold rain at 1:30 turned into a raging blizzard at 2:30 with hurricane-force winds, 3″ an hour snowfall and thundersnow.
    A normal 25-minute commute from Middleborough to Taunton took a couple of hours!

    1. yup, that was a doozey for sure.
      My commute was 3.4 miles and it took an hour and a half. When I got home, my street was not plowed. Made 1/2 way down street before I had to shovel my way in and to my driveway.

        1. did not shovel whole street, just a path for each tire track. Ie 2 paths down the street to my driveway. 🙂

    2. What an awesome storm. It took Mac hours to get home too. There have been lots of Dec 9 events.

      The most memorable for me was 46 years ago. It poured all day. When we began the service it was still raining. But when we came out of the church to head to our reception, it was heavy snow.

      The reception area overlooked Belmont conservation land. There was a roaring fire and wall to wall glass looking out on the storm.

      Later at the Hyatt Regency, we had thunder snow overlooking the Charles.

    3. My daughter’s school suddenly decided to have early dismissal at 1:30. It took me seven minutes to get to the school and two hours for us to get back home.

  11. Pre-Christmas storm odds:

    I have snow data for Lowell back to 1928. In that 96 year span, Lowell has had a storm dump 10″ or more on the city before December 25 a total of 22 times (once every 5 years roughly)

    Of the 22, 3 occurred in November, 6 occurred between December 1-10, 8 between December 11-20, and 5 between December 20-24.

    The last one to do so was a storm that dropped 12.8″ on December 16-17, 2020.

  12. I am seeing maybe 1.5 to 2 inches of rain along the coast. Is that from the intensity of showers in the embedded thunderstorms?

  13. During the late afternoon on December 9, 2005 many students had to remain in their respective schools until roads could be cleared. I remember that many Boston students didn’t arrive back home until 8:00 or later that Friday evening.

      1. My sons were in early elementary school back then in a school just down the street from the high school. I called to have them dismissed. Then the superintendent ordered the buses off the road via the radio. My sons’ classmates and teachers were in school until after 6 pm.

        I vaguely remember something similar in Providence the following year or so. I think that one was because work and school in the region all got released early at the same time and there were massive traffic jams.

  14. Weather…loosely…..Christmas trivia

    What Christmas song has the phrase
    “Heedless of the wind and weather”

    A. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow
    B. Deck the Halls
    C. Winter Wonderland
    D. None of the above

    1. Well, this is almost cheating. There was a holiday concert at our library yesterday and Deck the Hall was a sing-along.

  15. Can you give me a ballpark estimate on rain and wind in Natick for the storm this Wednesday? Looks like a soaker though the worst of the wind seems to be on the Cape. Thanks.

  16. Back to the colder / clipper pattern after the midweek warmer / wet interlude.

    There are 5 opportunities to put snow on the ground between December 15 & 25 in the area (in general). Don’t go looking for them on the operational GFS model. That’ll be a waste of your time. 🙂

      1. General pattern – ECMWF has better hints. Just don’t take the operational run verbatim. The model has a better handle on the pattern at this time.

    1. It’s a winter wonderland up there as you could see from the pictures I posted yesterday and they will add to it again today. Just hoping the mild surge and downpours upcoming on Wednesday doesnt set them back too far. After Wednesday, looks OK again up there again with periodic snow chances and the return of better snowmaking temps for the remainder of the month.

      1. Indeed. They should be OK, Perhaps even a change to snow at the end of the Wednesday event. We shall see.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Still had 100% snow cover at my house when I left this morning though I am sure that has taken a beating as the day has worn on. It was a nice prelude to winter the last couple weeks with the cold temps and being in the right spot to experience two snowstorms (one in Upstate NY on Thanksgiving and the one in Coventry on Thursday). Got two days of skiing in during that stretch as well.

    Ski areas have gone from what began as a slow start to the season to what has become one of the best starts in years. Just need to get through Wednesday and then things look decent again through month’s end as TK said, at least if you believe the Euro and its ensembles.

  20. Lots of reports of moderate to heavy snow and poor road conditions over the past few hours up in NH and VT.

  26. That low level cold air in Maine did make it to Boston.

    I’d imagine it’s possible icy Boston and surrounding suburbs this morning.

    1. The cold air almost always makes it further south than guidance indicates. Almost always. This concept was one of the first things that I (and SAK too) learned from working where we did in the early days. We were mentored by some of the best forecasters in the business who taught us many of the meteorological “rules of thumb” in general as well as some quirks more specific to the area we are in.

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