DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Today is our “in-between” day after last night’s slug of rain (and some snow well to the northwest) and the upcoming wind and rain event for tomorrow. Weak low pressure just to the east slowly drifts away but low level moisture will remain trapped over the region today so we’ll be under an overcast and there can be periods of drizzle. Low level cold air dominates, and the air temps are near to just below freezing early this morning from the immediate north and northwest suburbs of Boston northward into southern NH and northwestern into north central MA. Watch for black ice in these locations, and any drizzle that falls can also freeze on surfaces until the temperature goes above freezing. There will be only a very modest temperature rise during the day today as the cold air remains trapped near the surface. Warmer air will finally invade the region from south to north tonight in response to a stronger southerly air flow ahead of an approaching front, driven by a low pressure trough moving in from the west. Low pressure waves ride up this front and we get waves of numerous to widespread rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms Wednesday. Heavy rain can cause some ponding and road flooding, and watch for some strong wind gusts that can result in tree damage and some resultant power outages. If you have any holiday decorations vulnerable to wind, take steps to secure (or temporarily remove) them if possible. Out goes the rain, and in comes the dry and cold weather for late this week, accompanied by plenty of wind Thursday into Friday, which settles down by Saturday as high pressure builds in. The door is open for a few stray snow showers in our area Thursday and/or Friday, but these are not expected to be heavy enough to cause any travel issues.
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. Watch for black ice north and west of Boston along with some freezing drizzle. Highs 33-40 north and west of Boston, coldest southwestern NH and north central MA, 41-48 elsewhere, mildest South Coast. Wind N under 10 MPH north and west of Boston, E up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog / drizzle. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind S 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH, strongest in coastal locations.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Rain showers ending with clouds breaking overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 15-35 MPH, shifting to W, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A slight chance of a passing snow shower late in the day. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.
FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)
Main precipitation threats December 15 (minor) and December 17. Up and down temperatures averaging around normal.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)
Pattern hints at colder and minor precipitation (mainly snow) threats every other day but no major storms.
Good morning and thank you TK
33 here.
Thanks TK !
Well, last year, we had December 19th cancelled as a school day because of down trees and a good part of Marshfield without power. I hope we don’t lose this Thursday to tree removal/power outage restoration.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=925wh&rh=2024121000&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Low level jet peaking at 70 knots at 925 mb overhead Marshfield at 00z tomorrow night.
I remember that, Tom. We have conferences tomorrow night from 5:30-7:30. I will not risk my life for a handful of families!
Good luck, Captain !
Pembroke got hit bad with that one .
Thanks Tk
Thanks, TK.
Thanks, TK!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2024121012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
850 mb jet per the HRRR at 00z tomorrow night (7 or 8pm)
85-90 knots over most of eastern Mass
Itโs ripping right above us, get it to mix down and it will be powerful. I am betting some 70-80 gusts will be present.
7PM now that it is EST. ๐
How much gets mixed to ground level????
That is the question.
Thanks TK
.84 for the event and itโs 32.6 and dropping ever so slowly.
Logan showing 0.41 inch for yesterday’s RAIN.
Logan now showing 32. That may be a round, but still it is creepy low for the wet weather.
Total for the event? I just changed batteries, recalibrated my ambient and itโs if great. Drained the solar panel energy etc. mine was for yesterday and overnight into today. Surprised itโs that much of a difference.
Yes Well 24 hours. that covers event, I do believe.
https://ibb.co/jvXf83h
This is a 6Z NAM wind gust map in MPH for 7PM tomorrow
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2024121006/USA_GUSTM_sfc_042.gif
32.3 so dropping slight.
Thank you, TK
Another Dec 9 event. The 1952 London smog that killed 12,000. Credit to a friend for sending me the link
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/the-great-london-smog-how-the-weather-conspired-to-kill-12000-people/1721589
The 12z HRRR has a 64-mph gust at 8 pm over SE Mass.
Thanks TK.
NWS forecasted wind map:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_12/764496158_WindsDec112024.png.680128d6446c75b8209c6958ce452bb9.png
Yikes. I need to tie a few things down.
The NWS just hoisted Trampoline Warnings for the greater Sutton metro area. ๐
Ruh Roh. You have a GREAT memory!! I forgot to check that. Thank you.
Down to 31.8 so below, weโve seen this before as the cold air bleeds in down from Maine.
Per the Mt Washington Auto Road webpage
Its 24.3F at 1,600 ft (base)
Its 37.6F at 4,000 ft
and 30.5F at the summit
Interesting surface map from the EURO down the road
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024121012&fh=276&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
24 hour hour 10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024121012&fh=294&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
IF that is right and it probably is not that will get it done for a White Christmas
All we can do is pray for that Christmas miracle. โ๏ธ
Ainโt happening
Rather large IF. ๐ ๐ ๐
1,019โฆand counting ๐
Keep counting….
This particular solution doesn’t have much support from the ensemble.
18Z HRRR has 90 knot winds over Boston at 850mb or roughly 5,000 feet.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2024121018&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
90 knots = 103.57 mph.
If just 50% of that mixes to the surface, it would be over 50 mph.
18Z HRRR forecast wind gusts in KNOTS for 7PM tomorrow
https://ibb.co/NpL6gWR
40 knots = 46.0312
45 knots = 51.7851
50 knots = 57.539
55 knots = 63.2929
60 knots = 69.0468
65 knots = 74.8007
70 knots = 80.5546
So across the area we’re looking at basically 50-75 mph wind
gusts. I excluded the lowest and highest.
Interesting. Will it happen?
I think were going to see a fair amount of power outages across eastern parts of SNE with this storm system
SPC Outlook for tomorrow
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png?1733851805
WPC Excessive Rainfall. Most of SNE in a level two out of 4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2
This day in weather history goes back to 1960.
https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1866452805931680108/photo/1
remember thatvone well. 1st of 3 biggies that Winter.
I was living in Millis and it was a powder blizzard. nice drifts all over. and it was still snowing Monday AM and we had no school! yay!!!!
I also remember also. I would have been 11 and remember making snow forts with my brother in the piles of snow at the end of our driveway.
Us snow lovers would be happy for one storm like that this winter.
Sure would be happy
I don’t think we’re going to dislodge the low level cold west of I-95 until late morning tomorrow.
Crossed the warm front this morning dropping my wife off at the airport.
Left the airport, it was 39F, back to Marshfield, its 55F and all the windows fogged up.
It feels nice and warm.
yep. 38 here in JP. ๐
High Wind Warning
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/weatherstory.png?id=1733925347241