DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Welcome to the weather forecast for the final five days of autumn! There are some changes we’ll be going through, so let’s get to a summary of them. Today, cloud cover will be dominant but from a disturbance that’s running into dry air and falling apart as it does so. Initially, I expected more precipitation from this system, but it’s not to be, and other than some rain across the South Coast region and some lighter freezing rain and/or snow to the north of there, mainly southwest of Boston, for a while this morning, not much will take place today. A broad area of low pressure passing to our north tonight and Tuesday will drag a warm front across the region, accompanied by a period of rain overnight / Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front that may produce a brief rain shower in the midday to mid afternoon hours Tuesday, but it will be a mild day, with high temperatures exceeding 50 across the region. Cooler air settles back in behind the cold front Tuesday night, and the next low pressure system races our way from the west southwest Wednesday, spreading clouds back in, and a shield of precipitation at night into Thursday morning. The air will be mild enough for rain in bulk of the region, but cold enough for a mix or some wet snow at the start and possibly again at the end in interior northern MA and southern NH. Another batch of cold air follows this system, and is reinforced on Friday when a disturbance goes by bringing with it a chance of snow showers.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain South Coast, light snow and/or freezing rain west of I-95 in the I-90 / I-86 areas with some minor snow accumulation and light glazing possible during the morning. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Lows 33-40 evening followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain tapering off west to east. Cloud/sun mix late morning on with an additional rain shower possible midday or early afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives by late-day, may be mixed with snow initially interior locations of southern NH and northern MA. Highs 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending, possibly mixed with snow, especially north and west of Boston. Clouds decrease thereafter. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)
The winter solstice occurs at 4:20 a.m. on December 21, and the weekend of December 21-22 looks cold as we watch additional storminess to the south, but probably have high pressure to the north more dominant with mostly dry weather and some potential coastal snow showers. High pressure builds in with tranquil weather December 23 through Christmas Day, staring out with below normal temperatures then followed by a moderation.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)
A more active period for precipitation chances but also milder weather as a Pacific flow overtakes the large scale pattern.
https://stormhq.blog/2024/12/16/weekly-outlook-december-16-22-2024/
Good morning and thank you TK.
So it now appears that there will be NO white Christmas. No surprise there. Perhaps the coastal snow showers can over achieve and drop enough snow???? Not likely, but one never knows.
And we can always hope for a surprise.
Thursday system is mostly wet and the weekend system gets its act together too far off shore. Really close to something bigger over the weekend but the flow just looks too progressive. Still bears watching.
Always watching, but so far, doesn’t look too promising. 🙂
Thanks, TK.
Thanks TK
Just measured 3 inches of snow. It will melt and be gone with temperatures in the 40s and 50s tomorrow. I will enjoy the snow cover until then.
Wow!!! Not too shabby, considering the set up. 🙂
Impressive!
Awesome!
The two times it snowed this season today and back in 12/5 overachied
Meant to say overachieved where I am
Thanks TK.
About an inch here in Coventry CT with a glaze on top. Still sitting at 31.5F. Schools are on a two hour delay.
Thanks Tk . Unless something changes looks like those snow shovels will stay idle for now . Hoping for a snow storm in January but I thought someone mentioned yesterday January starts out mild .
I left my snow shovels behind when I moved over the summer. The senior living facility takes care of those matters. 🙂
I don’t even have to worry about the basement flooding anymore. This place does have a basement but that’s not my problem anymore. See above. 🙂
Which one are you in Philip as I know Quincy very well , drive through everyday & lived there for awhile .
I live at Brookdale Quincy Bay on the Southern Artery, rte. 3A. Not far from Quincy Center.
I thought I read somewhere here that later in January it gets cold again.
Thanks TK
A light but solid coating. Timing of icy part was a bit rough. I heard the school bus so no delay.
Thanks TK !
Just started raining in the city , lightly
I wouldn’t write off the weekend system just yet. Although my forecast matches TKs with cold and dry weather, it’s far from a lock. I can’t tell you the number of times over the past several winters that the models show a storm 7-10 days out, lose it around Day 5-6, then bring it back when it’s only 2-3 days out.
Thank you SAK. As we have been saying, we’ll be watching.
I am not counting on it, but it would be a pleasant surprise. 🙂
Which of the following “4s” will occur first?
A. Patriots win their 4th game of the season.
B. Boston gets its first 4-inch snow in 1,000+ days.
12Z GFS looks more off shore for the weekend than ever.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024121612&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
So much for the Christmas miracle. Oh well. ❄️ 🙁
My snow shovel is collecting dust just the way I like it. Ever since I fractured my ankle on black ice four years ago at sixty nine years old I have the extreme fear of falling again. My right ankle has twelve screws and a titanium plate. I’ve lost fifty percent of the range of motion in the injured right ankle and swelling that won’t go away. I did all the physical therapy after the surgery and now neuropathy had set in. Most people that have neuropathy in there feet are diabetic not in my case. Sorry for the long rant about a dusty snow shovel.
SSK – quite the contrary :re January. First half of that month looks potentially colder and stormier as there are signs that the blocking in the Northwest and Alaska returns. WeatherWx mentioned this yesterday.
Yeah I’m not sure mark I saw it somewhere that post Xmas is Warmer & the very beginning of January, after it gets colder
Post Christmas to New Years looks milder, yes. But right now does not necessarily look like the milder period is going to have much staying power. Looks like a potential cold reload for early January.
Meant WxWatcher, lol.
WeatherWx is my stage name.
12z Canadian much closer for the weekend than the GFS and delivers accumulating snow to Eastern MA:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2024121612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2024121612&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024121612&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z Icon delivers a period of accumulating snow Fri night/Sat as well.
And as I said above, both models are close to something bigger if the system can get its act together a bit sooner.
Well, isn’t that special!
Let’s see what the Euro has to say.
and the ICON?
It is closer as well
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024121612/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
“true” snow
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024121612/icon_asnow_neus_43.png
Thanks TK.
Agree with the general discourse here: watch that Fri/Sat system for sure. While the drier solution probably remains a little more likely, there’s very real potential for a substantial snow event.
euro is a swing and a miss.
Euro Ensembles still have several members closer that would deliver accumulating snow:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2024121606&fh=114
This was the 6z EPS, still waiting on the latest 12z EPS.
Cold temps this weekend seem to be in order. Just curious how cold is likely and if warmer weather will return for Xmas? Trying to plan some family activities. Thanks.
As noted, we’ll be at the start of moderation there, but probably not substantially for the day itself.
Quick update / thoughts after a glance at 12z DDDDDDDATA!
No changes really.
There’s room for the Friday / Saturday threat to be closer. The guidance (especially the ECMWF) shows something I’ve seen before. A dead zone where meteorologically there should be some snow. Future model runs may very well fill this in, and if that happens, and it’s right, a minor to borderline moderate event could take place Friday PM. Do you want to know why it’s going to happen? Because I have plans to walk in sandals across Hampton Beach at sunrise on Saturday and enter the water shin-deep for about 20 seconds. And if there is even a thin cover of new snow on the sand you better believe I’m putting some footprints in it with bare feet. 😉
Don’t worry, the already fully heated car awaits just steps away by the boardwalk. 😉
Beyond… May be a little Christmas afternoon snowfall ahead of our warm-up. Some of the guidance hints at this now.
When the warm up happens I will be seeing on X WINTER IS OVER or WINTER IS CANCELLED
I’ve already seen a few of those online in places…
Every year, there are very predictable and often very untrue complaints. A few examples…
1) Remember when it used to snow?
This is recency bias. We just came off the SNOWIEST 30 YEAR PERIOD ON RECORD. A relatively small stretch of lean years in a portion of the Northeast does not warrant that question. Also, as recently as the last 2 years, snowfall just a few dozen miles northwest of Boston was ABOVE normal for the season while the coastal plain was below. That is backyard bias.
2) Winter is over.
This is often seen before the end of the calendar year and no more than 10 days into actual winter (which begins on December 21). We saw claims to this into January of 2015, and…
3) One of my bigger pet peeves as you know are the “fake mets” or the social media crowd that is playing weather forecaster with absolutely no business doing so, especially since their bad information is at the fingertips of everybody, and misused / shared by many who have no idea they’re following a fake. I struggle a lot with this one, because it makes me wish that computer models were not available to the general public, but that would punish responsible model watchers, such as the lot we have here that discuss the guidance with the knowledge of its limitations.
EPS MJO Forecast has it between Phase7 and 8 by 12/30 although somewhat weak. Though I read in a recent post by Eric Webb that the EPS has a weak bias in its MJO Forecast. Regardless, if this forecast verifies, could mean a colder start to January for us:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml
CPC agrees in today’s MJO update:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf
An excerpt:
“A continued eastward MJO propagation over the Pacific would favor a period of below-normal temperatures across the northeastern U.S. to start off the New Year, as well as a wet start for the West Coast.”
I’ve been keeping an eye on this and yes it looks pretty solid into 7 & 8, but weaker than we really want to see it. I think it opens the door to the return of cold right after the Pacific-influenced moderation between Christmas & the new year. But I’d stop shy of saying we’re about to dive into full harsh winter weather at that point.
I think January is going to present a struggle between the colder shots and the Pacific flushes.
To clarify, the “EPS suite has a significant, weak MJO bias when a strong MJO wave is initialized near phase 5 (maritime continent) in the model, which is where the MJO is currently located. Oth, the amplitude in the CFS was more realistic.”
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1867717444900729192
TK, Eric (Webb) seems to agree with you on the struggle between colder shots and Pacific flushes in January:
Eric Webb
@webberweather
Though details are obviously tbd, today’s Euro weeklies in general probably have the right idea here I talked about a few days ago, w/ the late Dec mild Nino pattern quickly giving way to a big -EPO/+TNH (polar vortex) pattern in early-mid January, then a progressive transition towards a more classic -PNA/SE ridge later in January &/or early February.
We’re likely getting a full tour of every ENSO pattern flavor in N America the next several weeks.
There will be lots of volatility & wild swings from one extreme to the other. Buckle up.
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1867696309160849438
Yes…
So if we can get a 2-3 week period of cold and storminess in at the height winter during early-mid January when we are climatologically at the coldest time of the year and sun angle is low, I am all in. Would rather have it then to enjoy when snow has some staying power instead of March when whatever falls is melted in 2-3 days. We havent had much of that the past few years.
I will be happy if we could get one sizeable snowstorm this winter
12 EPS is further offshore for the Friday system:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2024121612&fh=108
We might be dreaming of a While Christmas once again. Last White Christmas for my area 2017.
Don’t hang on each of these model runs. Offer me a choice of widespread snow in SNE, I would go a light Christmas day dusting to 1/2″.
The rest of this is inconsistent model noise. As for early January, given climate shifts, the weak MJO phases are not enough to move me towards real winter…Pacific wins in the first half of January. You want to tempt me, January 20-Feburary 5 is winter in SNE…
What are your thoughts on the potential for some ocean effect fluff bands Friday and Saturday?
Cape Ann and Outer Cape, yes! Not so much for Boston, south shore.
Very much like your post !!!
Above for JMA
Feeling nostalgic…thinking about the 2015 snowmageddon we experienced. Even I, as a major snow lover, almost said enough. Will we ever see anything like that again? Probably not in my lifetime.
Temp was 34 at 6:18 and is up to 43 now
The entire 0z model suite is getting more interesting for the Friday/Saturday system. A definite trend back closer to the coast and the ocean storm looks like it is trying to get its act together sooner. Most are still in the game for some accumulating snow in that time period.
Yep. SAK talked about this earlier. I agreed.
On Wednesday’s update I’ll probably have a snow amounts forecast for that event, which will be late Friday.
According to Mike Waunkum:
Boston’s last White Christmas = 2009
Boston received 2.9” on Christmas Day 2017 but “technically” not a White Christmas because the snowfall was AFTER 7:00 am??
TK – What difference does the time make? How does the NWS come up with that rule?
If I recall correctly that snow was not forecasted even on Christmas Eve. It was raining when I woke up that morning then suddenly changed to snow. A nice surprise gift! ❄️ 🙂
The definition is that 1 inch or more of snow has to be on the ground (snow cover) at 12z (which in Boston is 7 a.m.).
It’s silly from a practical standpoint.
If the ground was bare at 7:00 a.m. and it started snowing at 7:01 a.m. and by noon we had several inches on the ground, that’s a white Christmas in my book. 😉 …but for the sake of official records, they go by “the definition”, which is very limiting.
New post!