Tuesday December 17 2024 Forecast (6:54AM)

80 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

A warm front passing by early this morning brings showers to an end by mid morning and sets up a mild day, despite a cold front passing through the midday hours. The cold front will have no more than a few isolated showers with it, so the general trend will be for dry with the return of sun. Clear, cooler (not too cold) for tonight as a narrow area of high pressure moves in. The next low pressure system tracks our way from the Midwest in rapid fashion on Wednesday, passing through the region at night with rain (maybe some wet snow in elevated areas to the north and northwest). This ends early Thursday followed by a clearing trend and the return of colder air, which will steadily overtake the region heading into late week. At this point we watch the evolution of low pressure to our south, off the Mid Atlantic Coast. The weather pattern likely carries the bulk of this system out to sea, but it may be close enough to throw its precipitation shield up into southeastern portions of our region Friday afternoon and Friday night. This will be in the form of snow if it occurs except rain or snow for Cape Cod. Additionally, a feed of colder air with a northeast wind both Friday and into Saturday will promote ocean-effect snow shower chances for parts of the MA coast (Cape Ann, South Shore). The coldest air of the season so far arrives just in time for the Winter Solstice (4:20 a.m. Saturday).

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain showers ending west to east. Partly cloudy midday with a slight chance of one more rain shower. Clearing thereafter. Highs 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially South Coast, shifting to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives by late-day, may be mixed with snow initially interior locations of southern NH and northern MA. Highs 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending, possibly mixed with snow, especially north and west of Boston. Clouds decrease thereafter. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun north and west / least sun southeast. Snow showers possible to probable Cape Ann to MA South Shore, especially afternoon. Steadier rain/snow possible Cape Cod and a chance of steadier snow into southeastern MA late-day. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow or snow showers most likely southeastern MA. Lows 20-27. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Additional snow showers possible favoring eastern coastal areas especially southeastern MA. Highs 25-32. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

A weak disturbance can produce a few more snow showers on December 22. High pressure brings fair weather for the remainder of this period with temperatures starting below normal then recovering to near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

A Pacific air flow will bring milder air to wrap up December and the year, but indications are that weather systems will be weak with mostly fair weather and just a couple minor precipitation threats.

80 thoughts on “Tuesday December 17 2024 Forecast (6:54AM)”

    1. The current pattern doesn’t dictate the entire winter.

      See WxW & JMA comments from yesterday. 🙂

      And be careful about run-to-run on any particular model.

      Reply

      1. Of course I know that. And I did read what you guys said.
        Doesn’t mean I can’t feel the way I do. 🙂 I said it remains to be seen. My feelings are reflected in my snowfall prediction.
        AND I sincerely hope I am DEAD WRONG. 🙂

        Reply

  4. This has been a weird december so far. Absolutely brutally punishing cold most days and then when the precip threats come it warms up. As a snow hater, I’m loving it. But I know January and February are always the bigger snow threat months.

    Reply

    1. This pattern is actually more common than many realize. Now we understand better the causes (which combo of indices do it).

      Early 1979 (particularly February) here. Brutal cold, except when the storms came.

      Reply

    2. punishing cold? Do you reside on planet Earth?
      punishing cold? seriously???

      Have we become a bunch of wimps?

      I haven’t been truly cold yet.

      Saturday nigh when it got down to 19 according to my equipment was glorious. I was out in it and loved it.

      Reply

      1. Yes – punishing cold for me because I run 10k’s in the morning before work. If you think that’s comfortable to sweat in and endure vs even 36 degree weather, I don’t know what to tell you!

        Reply

      1. If I remember correctly Philip there was a heavy snow cover down & I believe on Christmas Eve night or close before we had a lot of fog come through one night & it all went . The photo of the snow came up as a memory on my FB feed today

        Reply

    1. If it comes at all, it would be late Friday into Sat morning.
      Likely ending prior to 7AM, but can’t be sure of that.
      Note: IF

      Trends are getting a bit more interesting.

      Reply

  14. Typically the GFS is late to the party. Let’s hope that is the case here. It looks like other guidance has started a little bit of a tick northwest.

    Reply

  17. Friday afternoon at 850 and 925 mb, there is some very light onshore NE wind flow off the ocean for several hrs.

    Assuming there is not a ton of low level dry air to overcome, I can see a few hrs of snizzle/drizzle or frz drizzle near the coast that could coat the ground or provide a light glaze.

    I’m struggling to get excited for this when after a few days of real cold, it probably is 40-55F the majority of the last week of December.

    Reply

  19. From Bernie Rayno
    You still have to keep an eye on this coastal late Fri into Saturday for a period of snow from New York City into eastern New Eng. All you need is the trough just to dig a little more across the Carolinas Friday resulting in the flowing backing.

    Reply

  20. I believe I’ve read here that it’s easier to snow coming out of warm than it is out cold….not predicting, just regurgitating…:)

    Reply

    1. Figures. It couldn’t come around, could it. NOT surprised at all.
      Once I saw the UKMET off shore, I was virtually certain that the Euro would be as well. 🙂

      Reply

            1. Well it’s more dependent on where it’s pulling the temp from. Many folks in the NW suburbs, for example, are going to get Bedford’s temps, which may be close to or not that close to where they are.

              Reply

  23. Pretty decent ocean effect snow event may be setting up for eastern MA Friday into Saturday (would probably start as mix/rain for Cape Cod then transition over).

    As I said, we’re not going to need a low pressure center that close to squeeze snow out of the coming set-up.

    Reply

    1. I find it interesting that rain events have a typical low pressure area practically on top of us but to get snow we have to rely on “cheap” sources aka ocean effect. ❄️ 😉

      Reply

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Two observations: 1. It has not been that cold this month. Run-of-the-mill, for the most part. I do appreciate that people subjectively feel the cold differently, just as people’s tolerance for warmth differs. I guess that as person with chronically high blood pressure – like my mother – cold never gets to me. Of course, that chronic high bp may fell me in a different way, a heart attack, but so far I’m still here. I just can’t manage my bp no matter what I do (daily meds; daily running; careful diet – absolutely no effect).

    2. You only know just how relatively sunny it is in these parts in winter until you spend some time elsewhere. My daughter in London and my ex-wife in the Netherlands have experienced 10 straight days of NO sun, as in zero, not even a cameo appearance. That is expected to continue for at least a few more days. And even when the sun then appears it’ll most likely be for a brief period. I’ll be over there soon and will report on truly dark days of December (and winter). Keep in mind, zero sun does NOT mean constant rain. In fact, it usual just means nothingness. The Dutch even call it “gray nothingness.” After the series of Atlantic storms last week, nothing has been happening over there. It’s just overcast all day. Maybe a sprinkle or some light rain some days. But that’s it.

    Reply

      1. Well, I got ice on my local pond earlier than I have most of the last 10 years, and earlier than the average.

        The month at -2F so far is cold by December standards, but not excessively so. We’ll shave a tiny bit off the deficit after today, but add to it significantly late this week, only take a few more chips off of it late in the month.

        December will finish colder than the long term average.

        Reply

        2. I’m talking about the month’s average. It’s calculated. -2F departure. December has been colder than normal to date. That’s a fact. Of course if you live next to the ocean it’s going to be modified. But all SNE stations are running BELOW normal. It’s a chilly December so far.

          Reply

      1. Yeah I guess so . I’ve been only wearing a thin vest everyday & I’ve been hot . Today was a phenomenal day to be out & about .

        Reply

        1. I just came in from the deck and wore only a sweatshirt. Hard to determine temp by what we wear since every one of us has a different tolerance level. And remember, I’m not at the coast

          Reply

  28. Today was great for running through the state park! Everyone was out this afternoon walking, running, cycling. Usually it’s lonely for me out there or by the beach in the mornings when I run.

    Reply

    1. Sounds awesome. I’m headed to the deck shortly for a fire ans Christmas songs. I like the lonely out there since the only company would be coyotes. Or if I’m lucky bunnies or a groundhog

      Reply

  29. FWIW the 18z ECMWF operational run is about 50 miles further northwest with the precipitation shield for the late week system than the 12z ECMWF operational run was.

    Watching for trends. Not a clear one yet as it’s still a bit wavery.

    Reply

  30. Commenting late after a long day. I felt that little storm packed a good punch last night. We had 3/4 of an inch of rain in Padanaram Village. I noticed some yards with lots of standing water Since we had 4 inches last week. Sump pump going strong again like the spring. Quite a warm up today too. That felt very nice after temps in 20s a few days ago. Amazing how warm 50s feel after 2 days in 20s. Looking forward to some ocean effect this weekend when my vacation starts

    Reply

    1. And the synoptic snows from the system are much further to the north and west. Impact on cape and islands on 00z run where there was really no synoptic snow in extreme southeast mass on the previous 12z run of the GFS

      Reply

        1. Well we’ll see if the trend continues NW or this is part of a windshield wiper back and forth across a few 00 and 12z set of runs.

          Reply

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