DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)
A weak, fast-moving low pressure area will deliver its slug of precipitation to our area tonight and early Thursday while it’s mild enough for rain, however it can both start and end mixed with wet snow well northwest and north of Boston, with no additional impact. It starts to turn colder Thursday after the low exits, and the coldest air of the season so far moves in during Friday lasting through the weekend. This can be accompanied by some ocean-effect snow showers as a northeasterly air flow will set up between Canadian high pressure and offshore low pressure to our southeast. Potentially, some of the precipitation shield from the low can make it far enough north for a steadier period of snow (rain to snow Cape Cod) in southeastern MA late Friday. A more northerly air flow will confine ocean effect snow showers to Cape Cod Saturday, and dry weather will dominate the region on Sunday. The winter solstice occurs at 4:20 a.m. Saturday.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives early, possibly mixed with wet snow briefly well north and northwest of Boston. Lows 35-42. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending, possibly mixed with snow, especially north and west of Boston. Clouds decrease thereafter. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun north and west / least sun southeast. Snow showers possible to probable Cape Ann to MA South Shore, especially afternoon. Steadier rain/snow possible Cape Cod and a chance of steadier snow into southeastern MA late-day. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow or snow showers most likely southeastern MA. Lows 20-27. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Additional snow showers possible favoring eastern coastal areas especially southeastern MA early then just Cape Cod by midday on. Highs 25-32. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)
A weak low pressure area from the west can bring some light snow or snow showers (rain or snow showers South Coast) at mid period, otherwise a fairly benign pattern is expected around the holiday with temperatures starting below normal then moderating to above normal.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)
Pacific-dominated air flow brings milder weather but minor precipitation threats as we wrap up 2024 and welcome 2025.
Thanks, TK.
Good morning and thank you TK.
models still back and forth regarding Friday into Saturday. I guess we’ll find out.
Thanks TK
From Bernie Rayno
https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1869355102450106733
https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1869357875791114610
#MeteorologyNotModelology
Always liked Bernie and his analysis. His old Accuweather.com bloopers are hilarious.
Just Bernie’s usual “wishcasting” I’m afraid. That scenario rarely happens if ever. Another Christmas will go by without a White Christmas. ❄️ 🙁
Well, we don’t know that just yet, do we? 🙂
Perhaps, then again, one never knows.
Watching the 12Z runs for changes. Hard to say so far.
I am hoping for some snow from this system and that it stays on the ground for a White Christmas.
Even if we get a couple of inches, my guess is that it would be GONE by Christmas morning.
Thanks TK !
12Z NAM says NOPE
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024121812&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024121812&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z RDPS still wants to deliver “some” SNOW.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024121812&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
total Kuichera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024121812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Shows the boundary layer getting in the way!!!!
I am looking at the 12z NAM if that area just west of me could shift a little to the east I could get in on some snow. So close yet so far.
Thanks, TK.
12Z GFS brings a bit of Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024121812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z GFS Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024121812&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I keep looking at the 850 mb and 925 mb winds and for a few hrs, there is some modest NE flow off of the ocean.
I think, at this point, its reasonable most of the synoptic, deep lift, rain and snow misses SE of us.
But, there is a 3-6, maybe 9 hr window, where somewhere northwest of the synoptic snow, there should be some light moisture moving in off the ocean somewhere in eastern MA, but the models are REALLY struggling with this more micro part of the event.
I see that. Perhaps when the HRRR gets in range it might show up????
That would be nice if the HRRR could offer more small scale detail when we get to within 48 hrs.
Just not quite there yet. the 3KM is “almost” there. Perhaps that will show something soon.