Sunday December 22 2024 Forecast (8:12AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

An arctic air mass is in place and will hang around through Monday as high pressure builds toward the region today and crests over the region Monday. A low pressure area will move through our region Tuesday with a pre-dawn episode of light snow and some daytime snow showers, producing minor snowfall accumulation in some areas. High pressure builds back in with fair weather for Christmas Day and Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers Outer Cape Cod. Highs Highs 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except partly cloudy with additional snow showers possible Outer Cape Cod. Lows 5-12 except 12-17 immediate coast / urban centers. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light snow overnight with minor accumulation (under 1 inch). Lows 15-22. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Variably cloudy. Good chance of snow showers through midday. Highs 27-34. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of light snow showers in eastern areas. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Tranquil pattern with a slight moderation in temperature and no major storminess.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

A low pressure system brings a precipitation threat early in the period before dry weather returns with a colder trend getting underway.

78 thoughts on “Sunday December 22 2024 Forecast (8:12AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    You are a brave soul for being able to get in the ocean at this time of year.

    Just walked with the dog out to my car.

    It’s very cold, but not too breezy so it wasn’t as bad as I was expecting. The car isn’t too happy though. 🙂

    1. This morning would have been more difficult than just 24 hours ago to do what we did. 🙂 ..

      At sunrise yesterday: Air temp 24 / Water temp 46. Wind was under 10 MPH which makes a huge difference in those couple minutes you are out of the water and making the walk back up to the car (through a fresh albeit very light snow cover).

      At sunrise today: Air temp 9 / Water temp 45. Wind is W about 10-15 MPH which drives the wind chill to about zero. And that little thin snowcover would still be enough to be blown about a bit on the walk back .Yup. I’m glad we did this yesterday, not today. HAHA!

    1. Long term averages show the overall picture …
      Year to year can be quite different.

      Remember about 10 days ago I mentioned there were several opportunities to put snow on the ground before Christmas? 🙂

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Any thought on how much of Boston’s snow from the recent event was OE. I am gurssing for my location about 60% and perhaps a bit more 0

    thoughrs?

    many thanks.

      1. thank you. Sounds about right to me. One of the more impressive OE events I’ve seen around these parts. 🙂

  6. 11 here aerlirr this morning and still 11 brrr

    I was out late yesterday and had to fill the car with gas While doing so I actually felt cold for the 1st time this season.

    2. Yeah that’s the most insane snow maps I have seen. Just a bizarre setup. I can’t believe JP was pretty much the jackpot. But the NWS still won’t put my number in, annoyed by them.

      1. Where do you report that. Maybe I could tell them what I measured? NOT that they would believe me either. 🙂

        Hadi was you final number 6.2 or 7.2? I got confused a bit.

        1. If you got 7.2, I think that number is SOLID based on what I saw. I could make a case for 6.5, 7.25 or 7.5 here. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I’m the opposite. I hate the heat (and humidity).

      I don’t mind the cold much as long as wind chills aren’t too low and I bundle up properly. Hat, coat, sweater and gloves. All is good. 🙂

      I will be going out briefly later and I will put on two sweaters underneath which I do on occasion. Full sunshine helps a lot btw. 🙂

      1. I used to be OK with heat and humidity but as I have aged, I don’t tolerate it as well anymore. I do much better with the cold, but as you say, as long as the winds aren’t too strong. Bitter cold with a brutal wind is about as bad as it can get.

        Funny thing, as I posted earlier, yesterday was the 1st day I have felt cold outside this season. 🙂

        1. It’s all good Jean just to be off is great as I have been working a lot of extra hours at work / all different shifts . I can deal with the cold , but summer is my season .

  11. Monday night into Tuesday not looking like much of anything.
    Even what was the more robust RDPS has totally backed off
    and now showing virtually no accumulation. So, we shall see.
    Color me not impressed.

  12. Thanks, TK!

    Overnight low was exactly 10 degrees.

    Tonight’s NWS forecasted low for us is 3.
    The last time is was that cold (on a silent night) was February 15 (0) and February 16 (1), 2022 after an 8″ snowfall. It was -10 on February 4 and 5, 2023 during a brutal blast of destructive winds.

    And speaking of destructive winds, tomorrow morning is the 30th anniversary of the horrible North Attleboro house fire that killed seven, including five children, fueled, in part, by the storm-force winds. Winds that morning were 88 mph reported in Walpole and 100 mph on the Cape. It was one of the memorable, windest storms in my lifetime.

    Sources: Wikipedia and NWS/BOX NOWData

  18. Look at the lack of snowcover at my house on the satellite image that Tom posted. As Mark has said often, he could never live in the mid CT River Valley.

    All seriousness, TK and WXW really got Friday right. I just didn’t see it. I thought maybe a narrow private storm somewhere Suffolk, Norfolk County, and some OES Cape Ann and Cape Cod . This was a much more widespread 3″ plus in the areas where most people live.

    Also the NAM did not suck…I continue to use it with the ECMWF and the ENS GEFS N3K on a regular basis. The ECMWF did not do well this time around. Good lesson for all who are model acolytes.

    Back to my failure room, for self flogging…

  19. Just a reminder, you’ll see all kinds of “scenarios” on medium range guidance, particularly the GFS, in the runs ahead. Don’t hang hats on these individual runs. Watch ensemble, trends, etc.

    I don’t think we’ll really materialize a shot at a more classic type winter storm until near the end of the first week of January. A couple of interesting events are possible before that, but nothing that really stands out to me there just yet. 🙂

    1. I’ll take anything, even if it is something to look at that doesn’t materialize. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Warning duly noted.

  20. Thanks TK. I think end of the first week of January is a good time to watch for the bigger storm threats to start. “Possible” it could come just before then, but I think most of that week will just be shuffling the pieces around to make it possible… FWIW, the 12z Euro (which now runs to 15 days) has a mega bomb around 1/5. But like TK said, we’ll see many different outcomes on the models…

    Also agree with JMA that the NAM ultimately did not suck on the last storm. It wasn’t great, and definitely had inconsistency, but at least it showed something as opposed to many of the models which showed nothing. I expected snow in eastern MA, but the 4-6″+ corridor around the city surprised me for sure.

    Going to be a really interesting winter. Already a much more wintry December than the past several especially from a cold perspective. Next 10 days is a relative breather. But January looks extremely intriguing with high latitude blocking across both the Atlantic and Pacific the likes of which we haven’t seen in at least several years. And it’s likely a pattern that may not be epically cold, but is likely to support significant storminess (i.e., not a cold and dry). Buckle up…

    1. Have you looked much into the “Atlantic Nina” (that quick drop in ocean temps in the summer) that basically mimics a -AMO? Is it a coincidence that this particular December reminds us around here of many of the Decembers we saw during the actual -AMO phase? I think there is a strong relationship between the AMO (not exclusively of course) and global climate. As time goes by, I see more and more evidence of this. Just wondering if this is anything you have looked into.

      1. Honestly, not really, probably in large part because I’m so Pacific-focused these days. But I totally agree about the AMO. I also think that’s a big reason why the Atlantic hurricane season under-performed a lot of predictions, though ultimately still ended up being an active year.

        If I have it right, the AMO flipped to positive in 1995? I’d be curious as to your recollection of Decembers/early winter in New England in the -AMO era of the late 60s through early 90s. There were a lot of low-snow years in there, versus many high-snow years from the mid 90s-2010s. The AMO has seemed more “amorphous” in recent years since about 2020, and it’s hard to tell whether it’s trying to switch back to negative, or if it’s being altered by other changes in global climate…

        1. We’ll see everything from a bomb over the Great Lakes to a bomb at 40/70 to a bomb way out to sea to a non-bomb to a high pressure area (maybe even throw in a GFS fake-i-cane) on all these runs before whatever that event is going to be is known. HA HA!

          1. Sounds like a barrel of fun!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
            I shall heed your warning. Just hope one of those runs
            doesn’t cause the FAKE METS on the web to go ballistic!!!!

            1. I’ve already seen a few hype posts from single runs.

              “This will shut down all major cities…” etc etc.

              “Confidence is increasing…” (Did I ever mention how much I hate this phrase?) Nope, confidence on any one single major storm is not increasing this far out for anybody.

    3. What if January does not produce these storms , would that be considered a bust if you will , just curious .

  21. It’s 14 in Buffalo, so it will be a cold one for the Pats.
    Let’s see how Drake Maye performs in this weather.
    Brady was superb in the cold. Hope he does well!!!

    I am fearful of Josh Allen lighting it up.

  22. Looks like I had a high of 19 here today which is what the previous low for the season was before today.

    I wonder if this will be the lowest high of the entire Winter??

    And how COLD it will get tonight. Single digits, even here I suppose.

    Look for a surprise in this game: Pats upset win.

        1. With essentially ENSO neutral (we’re not in La Nina) are odds are better at seeing a more wintry winter. This is why I hedged toward normal snowfall. MJO has been the early enemy for snow lovers, but it’s now borderline and heading into better places. Still would benefit from a stronger index, but can’t have everything. This index has been the enemy of the snow lover for the last 4 winters (with a few brief periods of time when it was more favorable).

  23. I woke up to a Patriots score of 14-0 Patriots score, thought I was still asleep… I am hoping that the Bills are the team that gets to the superbowl instead of the chiefs. I want Lions and Bills as the superbowl this year as the Patriots have no shot at it. Patriots Offense is showing why I feel AVP should be kept and Covington needs to go.

    2. One of my grands is a swiftie. So I’m going with Kc. Meanwhile if anyone would like TS facts, I’m
      Pretty sure there is little I don’t know

      1. problem is I don’t want to hear all the BS about the chiefs being better than the Patriots and that Mahomes is the GOAT BLAH BLAH BLAH nonsense. I don’t want them to go 4 in a row.

  24. Thanks TK.

    Only made it to 16F here in Coventry today for a high after a low of 6F this AM. Looks and feels like deep winter out there!

  26. Down to 13.3

    Is this one of those nights that you can predict the minimum by reading the current dew point?

  28. Nice effort by the Pats today.

    Still floored on how good the Commanders have been. Shows you how important the QB is.

  33. Hadi, I really would like to see the Lions to be in it, they have never made it, they have gone through so much. Though I do not like the Bills in the afc east as a Patriot Rival, I would really like Josh Allen to get a ring. He is such a good person and out of the top tier qbs he deserves it. I wouldn’t mind the commanders either, but I just do not want KC in the superbowl and win it. Commanders did good by their young QB patriots have not done so for Drake Maye even though I think Daniels and Maye though different could have had sucess in DC.

    1. I was going to ask you if any of that ocean effect snow crept up the coast as far as Marshfield. I guess it did.

      Anything happening now?

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