Monday December 23 2024 Forecast (8:43AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Some ocean-effect snow showers dusted parts of the South Shore (including areas that missed out on snow from the last event) and parts of Cape Cod overnight, but these have moved offshore. High pressure brings cold, dry, tranquil weather to our region for today. Low pressure moving across northern New England Tuesday sends a warm front through the region with a brief period of snow favoring areas north of I-90 in the pre-dawn hours, followed by a cold front which will produce a band of snow showers (rain or snow showers for Cape Cod) Tuesday morning to midday. Dry weather returns for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as this system departs and high pressure moves in. With a snow cover in much of the region not going anywhere, this will qualify as a white Christmas for a good portion of the region. Only some areas well to the west and north may lack sufficient snowcover, as well as a small area of southeastern MA which got little or no snow during the recent event. High pressure will hold on with dry weather and a slight temperature moderation late this week, but no big warm-up.

TODAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by an increase in high cloudiness. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. A period of light snow favoring areas north of I-90 in the overnight hours with a very minor accumulation. Lows 16-23 occurring before midnight, followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mainly cloudy through midday with a period of snow showers (except rain or snow showers Cape Cod) from northwest to southeast with accumulation of snow up to 1/2 inch possible. Becoming partly to mostly sunny behind this also from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy Cape Cod. Lows 16-23. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of light snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

A quiet pattern with seasonable temperatures (slight moderating trend) for the final handful of 2024 days. Unsettled weather may be here by the first day of 2025.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Early period and late period low pressure impacts are possible, but too soon for details.

69 thoughts on “Monday December 23 2024 Forecast (8:43AM)”

    2. The satellite burn-up is much longer and more dramatic because it’s traveling at a snail’s pace compared to the asteroid segment, and at a much more horizontal angle .. basically skimming along the top of the atmosphere versus just plunging right into it.

      1. Good. I like skimming rather than dropping. But space junk? And, I know it’s there but what……We got tired of polluting the earth and moved to polluting space?

    1. Nice. I am trying to picture in my mind where that 2nd shot was taken. Curious to know exactly where. Part of Hingham bay.harbor / Lands End or Wompatuck ?

        1. Hmm you lost me. So, if driving South on 3A you pass the left turn to Nantasket? Or is it well before it.
          I’m having trouble locating it in my mind. Does not look familar to me. I can see the inner Hingham harbor in my mind. Can’t see your image.

          No worries, if you had enough of my inquires. 🙂

    2. Am I the only one who didn’t think starting pitching was the problem with last year’s team? Clutch hitting, defense, and bullpen were the weaknesses. If not for poor defense and blown saves late in games, they would have been a playoff team. They need to sure up the back end of the bullpen. Chapman isn’t gonna get it done. And they still need reliable clutch hitting.

  13. WBZ headline on their latest fb post with C-2 inches for Boston…

    “Wishing for more snow? There could be some treacherous travel on Christmas Eve.”

  15. Not much cooking on today’s 12z operational models. A muted warmup after Christmas and a couple of cutters they may or may not wash out before they get to our area as we approach New Years.

    Much colder and more interesting look as we get into the first full week of January, at least on the ECMWF.

  17. John Homenuk
    @jhomenuk
    4h

    I am becoming increasingly convinced that the upcoming pattern will be the most favorable we have seen for winter weather in the Northeast US in at least a few years. No guarantees, but this is a very impressive configuration – effective for both low level cold and storm chances.

    https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1871201631448220075

    1. I follow Tomer and John probably less so (He seems to be a little bit of an NYC celeb … but more power to him.) Both seem to have a no-hype approach to the weather. They give their opinion but neither is really into shameful sensationalism.

      1. Agree, neither are hype masters so seeing this from them definitely has my attention. And WxWatcher has mentioned the same.

        Looking at the GEPS and EPS ensembles, it is a good look…cold air and troughiness in the East with blocking to our north. GEFS has backpeddled though and is showing a bigger trough out west which would keep milder air and a cutter train going in the East for longer.

  18. Thanks TK!

    Piggy-backing on some of the posts above: IMO, latest models showing a Southeast ridge pattern over the East, with troughing much further to the west, do not have it correct. The GFS/GEFS in particular seem suspect. As TK warned, we’ll see many different model solutions in the next week or so. Big picture wise, everything looks on track for a cold and likely snowy period in the East starting as early as ~1/5.

    If you really want to get speculative: We “may” see that traditional La Nina, -PNA, Southeast ridge dominant pattern emerge by later Jan and Feb. But, that may also depend on how early to mid Jan evolves. If we lay down a big Northeast US snowpack in January (very possible) the feedbacks associated with that can greatly alter whatever follows.

    1. FWIW, the big picture, sub-seasonal (3-6 week) aspects of the CONUS pattern have shown pretty high predictability relative to normal so far this fall/winter. In other words, the periods of more Pacific-dominant patterns versus -EPO Alaskan blocking patterns have been well telegraphed. We’ve known for probably 10-15+ days that there would be a relative lull in winter weather over much of the CONUS to end this year and start next. But it lends relatively high confidence (IMO) to what’s coming in the big picture 1/5 and beyond…

    2. Thanks WxWatcher. Let’s hope this is the year we have a more traditional New England winter. So far it has felt different from the last few winters with some good cold snaps and a few early season overachieving snow events. Hopefully we can capitalize on this upcoming pattern and keep that SE ridge at bay!

    3. I asked you yesterday Wx on this snow & cold pattern starting on 1/5 as I’ve seen it mentioned here a few times . If this does not happens if you will, is it a bust . Thank you . You seem very confident in a snowy period for this time .

      1. I missed the second post so I see some answers there , but if it does not happen will you be surprised, again thank you .

      2. Hey! I would be surprised if most folks in SNE don’t receive at least one significant snow (say, 6”+) from 1/5 to 1/20. But there’s a lot of variables with snow, and a “big picture” prediction like this is not something you can verify in any one backyard. I’m speaking pretty broadly about the Northeast US as a whole.

        I would say I’d call it a “bust” if we do in fact end up with a stronger Southeast ridge and a parade of Lakes cutters during that 1/5-1/20 window. That would be very opposite my thinking, and I’ll take the egg on my face if so 🙂

        1. Thank you Wx I really appreciate the explanation, I am rooting for some 6+ events down here on the SS. Merry Christmas

  21. I find it amazing that from Boston area to due south, a White Christmas is assured but those well N&W will probably not. I wonder if that is unprecedented? If not I would say “extremely rare”.

    1. It’s all bare here Philly. We had some very minor flurry activity in Duxbury around noontime today, you needed to really look closely .

      1. That’s why I said “due south” in my post. I know that much of the South Shore didn’t receive much if any snow. Quincy definitely lucked out. I consider “due south” of Boston such as Milton, Norwood, Brockton etc.

        In the future, DO NOT call me “Philly”. Just Philip like everyone else here. Thanks. 😉

        1. Norwood is SW of
          Boston and Brockton is SE of Boston. Those 2 locations usually have very different conditions in events like that

        2. Hey Philip, I did not realize it said Philly until you just mentioned , definitely a typing error

            1. Hoping so. Thank you !! You???? Although even without snow it’s hard to not be extra excited with little ones watching for Santa.

  22. I moved to Padanaram in the summer of 2022. I have not yet even experienced one winter storm watch Since living here Quite a change from my 17 years of living in Minneapolis. I would like to see a good old fashion blizzard – like my days on Long Island – sometime in early 2025.

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