Thursday December 26 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)

94 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A low level inversion has delivered a large cloud patch to much of eastern MA and parts of RI, blotting out the sun as it rises early this morning, but this cloud area will break up and clear out from north to south by mid morning, and with high pressure in control today and again Friday, a stretch of fair, tranquil early winter weather will continue. But as optimistic as I was about our weekend yesterday, I need to be less so today, as high pressure will lose control sooner, sliding off to the east and weakening. While this happens, a low pressure trough approaches from the west. Clouds arrive Saturday, along with a milder southerly air flow, into Sunday as well. A frontal boundary will get closer to the region and waves of low pressure moving up along it, passing to our west, will deliver periodic rainfall to our region from late Saturday through Sunday. Does it get better Monday? It may be improving late in the day, but not before one more low pressure area brings a slug of soaking rain to the region. The benefits to the milder, wetter upcoming pattern are that stubborn icy areas on walkways will melt away, and rainfall will continue to reduce our ongoing drought.

TODAY: Early clouds eastern MA / RI, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 19-26. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late-day, which can be in the form of freezing rain in some portions of central MA and southern NH. Highs 35-42. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures rise to 40-47 then steady. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain likely. Temperatures rise slightly to 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast with areas of fog and rain likely morning-midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

A drier interlude on the final day of 2024 with an area of high pressure sliding just south of our region. Another low pressure area moves in with a rain chance for the first day of 2025. This will be followed by drier weather – maybe a few snow showers – and a colder trend in the early days of the New Year.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

This period looks more active with at least and probably 2 storm threats (rain/mix/snow TBD) as it’s far too soon to talk about details.

94 thoughts on “Thursday December 26 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Sitting in a cafe working on an article on Alzheimer’s disease – the cafe is called Gail’s; it’s a chain of bakeries/coffee shops – on the 3rd in a series of gray nothingness days since I arrived. Literally, nothing happens weather-wise during these periods. It’s not windy. It’s not raining. It’s just gray, damp (not from rain; rather, from low-lying clouds/fog), and raw. This kind of weather really doesn’t happen in Boston at all. The closest simile is late March/early April rawness. But usually it then actually does something, like rain or snow.

    Of course, variability in weather does happen here. I’d day that summer and fall here are MORE variable than New England. Just not during these extraordinarily dark (I’m now much further away from the equator than Boston, which limits the daylight hours by around 2) and dreary days. The indoor and outdoor lights really help and are absolutely necessary, as you really won’t see the sun for days/weeks/months on end.

      1. UK, in North London.

        During this lengthy trip, I will be spending some time here, in the Netherlands, and Germany. As I head east, the weather will be increasingly continental and therefore feel more like Boston, particularly when I am in Berlin. And while I do know that Boston’s climate has a maritime component, it’s much more continental than, say, London or Amsterdam. You sense this right away, as even on dry days (it’s been dry since Monday) it’s hardly ever sunny and ALWAYS damp. When my daughter does laundry it takes days for things to dry. She and her boyfriend don’t have a dryer. There’s really no room for one in the unit. Their fridge is VERY small, too.

        I prefer the smallness of it all, including the cars. But then again, I grew accustomed to it while living here for decades.

    2. It’s great to hear from you Joshua. Thanks for taking the time to post here and for your description of “nothingness days.”

      1. “nothingness days.” is a perfect way to describe the upcoming weather here for at least 10 days to 2 weeks and likely more. Even if there is a large rain event, in my mind it is also a “Nothingness day”!

          1. It’s nothingness to me. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            I view the weather rather differently. 🙂

            If it’s not doing what I want, it is NOTHING.
            Just the way I run…..

  3. Funny thing happened on the 11PM CH 10 news last night.
    Just before the weather came on, the news host said
    what a beautiful evening, NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY.
    Switch to weather where the Met says currently 30 degrees
    and Mostly Cloudy in Boston. UNREAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The news people should just keep their damn mouths SHUT!!!!!
    when it comes to the weather!!! They don’t know Jack Sh**!!!!!

      1. ha ha ha ha…..Perhaps.
        I just about through my shoe at the TV!!!!!!
        You could have hear me in Woburn! Did you? 🙂

        1. And we had just come in for celebrating Christmas at our Daughters and I could SEE it was CLOUDY. We got out of the car and I looked up to see a CLOUDY SKY. In fact, I 1/2 thought there might have been a few OE snow showers. NOPE. There were some down by Plymouth and the canal. 🙂 SO I damn well knew it was cloudy when the news host
          said NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY!!!!!!!

  4. MJO progresses through phases 7, 8, and 1 during the coming 2 weeks or so, but as suspected in my winter outlook and subsequent commentary, it’s going to be weak, which significantly lessens its impact on the pattern.

    Unlike the last few winters, we should start to see a trend where this index becomes more pronounced as we move further into winter.

    One thing we may see from this (and it’s combination with other indices) is that the coldest air, relative to long term averages, is directed more through the Midwest into the Southeast, and not as directly at the Northeast.

    HOWEVER, please keep in mind, because this seems to be forgotten a lot, that snowfall and temperature anomaly are not directly related. Meaning you don’t need below normal winter temps to snow, nor do above normal winter temps automatically mean rain. Case by case. You take it case by case. Weather is not just a broadbrush idea of definitions meaning A, B, C, X, and Y. That’s not how it works.

    1. How true. In fact, what you describe may help keep suppressed
      storms away and allow some to come up that might otherwise
      have gone OTS.

      1. That is a potential, yes.

        The complex interaction of global, hemispheric, and continental / oceanic indices makes it impossible to just generalize.

        One of my favorite examples of this…

        The NAO is generally thought of as bad for snowstorms if it’s positive, and good for snowstorms if it’s negative. YET, the NAO was positive for the entirety of the 2015 snow blitz period.

        1. I Know. That was a hoot. That was a snow blitz that may never be repeated, certainly not for a long time if it ever is repeated.

          So, we just never know do we. I continue to watch. Not excited yet, but I do expect things to happen down the road.
          Hope so, anyway.

  5. Observation:

    As we drove out to Hopkinton yesterday, the difference
    in snow depth was quite noticeable!!! Quite the opposite
    of what it usually is.

    Rare for my location to be in the jackpot zone, but that is exactly what happened with that event last week.

    It was WONDERFUL having a genuine WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!

    1. I noticed that on Sunday when I drove to Acton and back. We only had 2.5 inches from the Friday event in Woburn, but there was barely 1 inch out there.

      1. Probably 2 on the ground in Hopkinton and at least 4 inches
        still on the ground here and perhaps a bit more. Wish I measured. 🙂 🙂 I know Logan was 3 , but we got about 2 inches
        more than Logan. So it could have still been 5 here. 🙂 Looked like it.

            1. Yup. That’s a preview of my 2025 “partially scientific but not completely” predictions. 🙂

              1. I find it interesting that White Christmases are so difficult to come by around here and yet HHH from the deep south has no problem visiting us on July 4th like clockwork.

    2. I noticed that when you were reporting a ton and we barely had a coating. Was it a couple years ago when it was more one the cape or south shore?? I lose track of time in retirement

      1. Time? What is that? It is passing at such a rate, I can’t believe it!!!!!

        It’s truly like a death march at my age. 🙂
        Next thing I know I’ll be in my coffin.

        2. I was going to say something about the possibility of snow on that day, but then I remembered a bit of our family lore.

          The eldest of my parents’ siblings passed away in April in upstate NY. There was a lot of snow before the burial, but it was warm and sunny at the actual time. The other pall bearers and I were wheeling the coffin down a steep incline toward the burial spot. The combination of snow, mud, and inappropriate footware soon had everyone, including the undertakers, in panic mode trying to save Aunt Anne. We were finally able to halt her descent, and all went as planned after that.

  8. I always pay attention to what Magic 106.7 selects as their first and last songs at the start of and end of their holiday music run.

    At 5PM on November 22 they opened it stretch with the listener-selected “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” by Andy Williams, and the final track played just before midnight last night was “Same Old Lang Syne” by Dan Fogelberg.

    While I’m really happy that they (and some other stations in the area) do switch to a holiday format for a handful of weeks, I do wish they’d add some great songs to their playlist that are annually left off of it. There are so many….

    I love the standards, I love the classics, I love the “well known” tunes. But there are so many they are missing. 🙂

      1. They have good songs in their playlist, for sure, but IMO it’s far too few given the variety out there.

        You’ll often hear the same tune 3 times in a 5 or 6 hour stretch. And I don’t mean different versions of one song, I mean the same song by the same artist.

        They are OK, but they can do much better. I’ve written to them numerous times requesting certain songs be added I know their listeners would love, but they never even reply to me.

      1. It will take a lot more than what we’re about to get to wipe that map clean. About 4 or 5 times as much as we’re about to get.

    1. Amazing how every now and then, eastern sections actually bear the brunt of the heaviest snowfall. ❄️❄️

      Wasn’t that the first day of WHW blog? 🙂

      Iirc Vicki was the first poster?

              1. Of course!!!! I continue to have trouble telling my fingers to do what my brains wants them to!!!!
                🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Only name I recognize is coastal who invited many of us to the new blog! 🙂

              Complete freedom from those awful WBZ trolls.

  12. Philip did Boston receive measurable snow Christmas Eve morning? NY got one inch
    Snowfall standings
    BOS 5.5
    NY 2.8

  13. For those wondering, the first ever post on this blog was made on December 26 2010 at 3:32 a.m. under the title “December Dumping”. It was a short test blog, basically, and this is what it contained:

    Good morning!

    We are staring down the barrel of a weather gun as a powerful storm takes shape along the US Southeast Coast and begins a trip up the coast during the day today. This storm, responsible for some snow & a white Christmas in parts of the Deep South (Alabama, Mississippi, & Georgia), will spread heavy snow into New England later today through tonight, into Monday. Depending on the track of the low pressure center, some mixing with rain may occur especially along the coast from Boston south. Areas that stay all snow, and I expect most of the I-95 corridor to be included in this, will receive a foot or more of snowfall, up to 20 inches in some locations. Blizzard conditions are also likely in these areas Sunday night into Monday, thanks to strong northeast to north winds.

    Check back for more updates Sunday!

        1. I’m sure I worked all night removing it , just can’t remember. Boy it’s so awesome now that I am not doing snow removal at the Hospital as I do not miss it one bit .

      2. There is a snow map in the link that JJ posted above….

        https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1872251021336211500?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

        Remember this storm well. We got screwed in Coventry from that one and only ended up with 8”. Eastern CT was caught in any area of subsidence between the stronger bands that set up over Eastern MA and points further west.

        I was up in Amsterdam NY for the actual event and there was a very sharp cut off to the precip. We drove down to Albany (25 miles Sw) to the Christmas light show that night and it was snowing like hell. They ended up with a foot of snow. Got back home to my mother’s in Amsterdam and nothing on the ground. No accumulation beyond a few flakes in the air.

    1. And Worcester as usual manages to keep an “arms” length on Boston snowfall…

      ORH = 10.2
      BOS = 5.7

      Hopefully Boston can at least make a good race. I have a good feeling this time that Worcester won’t just run away like previous winters. We will see. 😉 ❄️❄️

  15. Thanks TK.

    And on the appreciative note, many thanks for continuing to host the blog here. Pretty wild that it’s been almost 15 years. Rare in any social network, let alone a local weather blog, for something to maintain itself that long and keep so much of its original feel 🙂

    This blog has absolutely made me a better met, both from the valuable insights of pro mets like TK, SAK, JMA, and others, and the enthusiasm and civility of all the regular posters here. “Back in the day” this blog and all of you introduced me to so many tools that I might’ve never known about until much later. That’s a huge leg up for a perspective met student. Time will tell if my professional travels ever bring me back to SNE, but I’ll always have a passion for the weather there!

    1. Very kind words which I thank you for. 🙂
      It was great to get to see you in person at that conference too!

      I hope in the future we do have that opportunity again, whether you come back this way for work or not. It’s been very pleasing to be able to follow along on your journey. You’re already one excellent professional, as well as a genuinely nice person! So it’s a pleasure to have you as part of this blog!

      2. I echo those sentiments!!
        And having lived in Millis (before WxWatcher was born) I feel
        like we were neighbors. 🙂

  16. Now something rather amusing: literally just 2 or 3 days ago, people were getting worried about the models (mainly GFS/GEFS) showing a Southeast ridge, -PNA pattern that would thwart the expected cold/snowy pattern in the East. Well, guess what, that’s completely gone away.

    Now, the concern from the same people is that the upcoming pattern could be too progressive for significant storminess. In other words, a cold (potentially extremely cold) but mostly dry pattern. Now that, I can’t rule out the way I could pretty safely rule out the Southeast ridge pattern. It’s possible the mean trough axis over the East and mean ridge axis over the West could both set up too far east, at least initially. However, IMO, things look as good as ever for both significant cold and snow for much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic in that target 1/5-1/20 window…

    1. Thanks WxW! It’s nice that you and TK generally have the same thoughts on the medium/long range especially. 🙂

      WxW – Weren’t you posting on the old WBZ blog as well?

      1. If I remember correctly, I never posted on the WBZ blogs, but I was most definitely a reader of them, through the initial “good days” and then the unfortunate decline. I was just a weather-obsessed high school student back in those days 🙂

        1. I still remember Barry Burbank joking with me “you stole all our readers!” but he was kidding. He knew that the fact they were not really allowed to police their own blog made it easy for the trolls to “troll”. You gotta be pretty bored if that’s the highlight of your day. 😉

          1. Some of the folks there continued to troll a few of us mentioning this blog. You really gotta feel sad for them

            2. Just for kicks, I was curious to the exact definition
              on an online troll:

              Urban Dictionary defines “Troll” as: One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument.

              Well that describes it pretty well. 🙂

  17. I’m the first to say don’t pay attention to details on op runs, but if for some reason the end of the ECMWF 12z op run was correct, that’s one hell of a bomb, and one hell of a cold air delivery. And probably a record snowstorm for Maine. Again, taking the run verbatim. It won’t happen exactly this way.

  18. TK, thank you for all of your dedication and hard word during thr past 15 year. It is an honor to be part of this whw family and to get to know so many special people.

    2. Certainly is. I’ve enjoyed it immensely!!!

      Did ever figure out who Baily Man? was or whatever the name was.

  19. Just to stir up the pot (and not to be taken too seriously)!

    Recently, I have wondered off and on about the current lineup of weather models. We used to say on this very blog that the Euro is King. No one says it anymore. The GFS was always thought of as mainly reliable and today we seem refer to it more often being not-so-reliable. The NAM is about to be replaced by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model.

    I look at op runs / ensembles 2-3 times a week. I know models are just tools in the weather forecasting kit and they get it right sometimes, but I cannot help but feel we are being underserved. Models are updated from time to time … sometimes for the better and sometimes seriously not.

    There are now AI-based models such as GenCast from Google’s DeepMind project and AI-assisted models (Euro?). Despite the empirical claims, I remain reserved, for now, about AI in this field for very specific reasons which I’ll skip for the moment.

    Maybe I am just looking for another King (or Queen). Okay time to beat up my comments. Rant over!

    1. I won’t beat them up.
      I certainly remember the days when EURO was KING!
      Too bad those days are in the past.

      Modeling the atmosphere is a really rough business. I am amazed that the models do as well as they do sometimes.

    1. Thanks! You bring up a very good point about the freezing rain/drizzle chances. Models nearly always over-forecast sfc temps.

      Definitely a set-up to watch.

  21. there was about a 4 year period in which the EURO was king, but had certain flaws in other parts of the world specifically the tropics same with the GFS. They tried fixing one thing and made another thing worst. Sometimes I feel like model people try and fix things to quickly and it ends up making it worst which is what I think has happened to the EURO in many aspects. I actually like the UKMET alot more than I use too and put it up there with the EURO

    Anyways it looks like there is some good old fashion new england winter cold come January at least for a little bit and come along with it some snow chances. No matter if it snows or not, the colder air being around has let ski areas hold onto their snow instead of it just melting away. This is certainly a rebound year for ski areas.

    1. IIRC, last year’s ski season was a bit of a sh*t sandwich. Great early start followed by terrible conditions over the 2 school vacations until about mid March when a series of storms dumped in central and NNE with mid winter conditions through April.

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