Saturday December 28 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)

100 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27 – JANUARY 1)

Scattered rain / drizzle in the region this morning can freeze on surfaces especially outside of urban centers and away from the coast. Areas vulnerable include Metro Boston and I-95 belt westward and northward. Temperatures should rise sufficiently, albeit slowly, especially over interior valley areas, so that the icing issue comes to an end during the midday hours. By then, most of the patchy rainfall, associated with an approaching warm front, will have ended. The front will take until Sunday to fully push through the region, probably accompanied by some additional light rainfall, but this time with surface temperatures above freezing across the region – so no icing threat. While the low pressure area parenting that front passes to our north, its trailing cold front will bring a ribbon of rainfall to the region Monday, mainly during the first half of the day, before the front passes and introduces a drying westerly air flow later in the day. A bubble of high pressure passing south of the region on the final day of 2024 Tuesday will exert enough influence for partial sunshine. Another low pressure system will be heading our way though, and 2025 will begin with an unsettled day Wednesday. The track of this low will be close to the region, and enough cold air may be present over interior locations for some mixed rain/snow or even some patchy icing conditions at least at the onset. It’s a bit too soon to pin down the details of this system, so check updates!

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain with icing inland locations morning to midday. Patchy drizzle with freezing drizzle inland thereafter. Highs 32-39, coldest interior locations north of I-90 and west of I-95, except 36-43 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind calm through midday then SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Patchy drizzle, which may freeze on surfaces far north and west of Boston initially. Temperatures rise to 40-47. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. An additional period or two of rain possible. Highs 45-52, mildest interior locations south of I-90. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

MONDAY: Overcast with areas of fog and widespread rain showers morning-midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing and becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Overcast. Rain likely with areas of fog. Some mix/ice potential well inland. Highs 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

A few snow showers otherwise dry, windy, colder early in the period then more tranquil but cold mid period as high pressure replaces departing low pressure. Next storm threat comes at the end of the period but too early for details.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

Winter storm potential early in the period, followed by fair weather. Temperatures below to much below normal.

100 thoughts on “Saturday December 28 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  1. Thanks TK

    My fear with this pattern is the blocking will be too much for us. Look at 6zGFS obviously don’t take verbatim but show the track much further south. We shall see how it plays out but I have serious doubt about lots of snow. The cold is coming, no stopping that.

    Reply

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    36 here now. was 35 at 6 AM.

    Unless I have lost all track of time, today makes 8 consecutive days of snow cover. Can’t remember the last time I have seen this.

    Snow should be gone in a few days.

    Reply

  6. From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino

    There is a lot of interesting potential for January, especially from January 5th through January 20th. However, while the pattern is favorable, please understand that 15 to 45 day snow maps have very little skill. Don’t worry about the details at this point.

    Reply

  8. The last potential I remember panning out for a big snowstorm was the Blizzard of 2013. EURO when it was considered KING sniffed that storm out 7-8 days in advance.
    The NAO was slightly positive for that big storm. A lot of people posting on X saying if you don’t have a negative NAO you can’t get a big snowstorm. NOT TRUE!

    Reply

  12. Thanks, TK

    35 degrees with 0.02 in very light showers and drizzle and fog.

    Vanderbilt 35, Georgia Tech 27!

    Only the fifth bowl win in school history and the first winning season in 11 years!

    A sure Sign of the Apocalypse! 🙂

    Reply

    1. It sure was Jimmy! That 1976-77 winter Boston received 58.5”. The following winter 1977-78 Boston received 85.1” (much from the Blizzard).

      Reply

  18. Thank you TK!

    Exciting morning over here as the “Bus” is officially on the road after passing his road test. Eeeek! He told me he can’t wait to drive in the snow. Not so sure I agree.

    Reply

  21. Thanks TK.

    Up to 41F after a low of 28F this AM here in Coventry. 0.28″ of rain this morning. Like at Vicki’s, snowcover is starting to get patchy.

    Reply

  22. Another day of temperature inversions up north as the milder air streams in aloft. Current Mt Washington auto road temp profile:

    https://mountwashington.org/weather/current-summit-conditions/

    I still cannot get over the temps yesterday AM. 2F at the base at Pinkham Notch at 1600′, 42F at Tuckerman’s Ravine at 4000′, and 28F at the summit at 6288′. Must have been wild for the people hiking up the mountain yesterday. 40F temp increase has you hike two hours/2400′ up in elevation is not something you see every day. I think the average temp decrease per increase in 1000′ elevation is normally 3-4F.

    Reply

  26. Did someone say 1977?

    Mike Thomas
    @MikeTFox5

    Mentioned several days ago how the brutally cold Januarys of 1977 & 1985 were showing up as pattern analogs…

    New Euro rolling in…it’s showing one of the most extreme cold air outbreaks I’ve ever seen from the ECMWF in the East mid-January.

    Probably overdone but like…wow. That’s a -40° below normal contour in the Southeast/Midwest!

    https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872887141560402245

    Reply

    1. The cold pattern looks like a given at this point. You can never guarantee snow as things need to line up just right. At least we dont need to worry about any rainy cutters in this pattern. If we get skunked it is going to be by storms passing to our southeast out to sea, as Hadi mentioned above.

      Reply

      1. How about we get a stationary arctic high parked to our North sending a nice NE flow in off of the ocean. With the sea surface temp and the cold over land temps, it could set up a
        major OE snow event similar to the big ones of the Great Lakes. Would really like to see one of those before my time is up. Never have so far. A few decent ones like 4-8 inches, but NEVER the big one like the GL.

        Reply

        1. That would do nothing for me. I’d rather see a slow moving blizzard along the coast with a widespread 2-4 feet for everyone. But go ahead…be selfish! 🙂

          Has a GL style ocean effect event like that ever happened in eastern New England? I cannot recall any that have dropped feet of snow, though I suppose it is technically possible if the setup is perfect.

          Reply

          1. Not to the level of the extreme events, but we’ve had significant O.E.S. events here, yes. On the order of 12+ in heaviest bands.

            Reply

  30. 12z Euro has s system with some late coastal redevelopment on 1/7 which would be a 3-6″snow to mix/rain event. That ushers in a prolonged cold and dry pattern. The follow-up 1/10 coastal storm that bombs out over eastern Canada and ushers in historic cold to much of the US is gone on that run.

    Reply

    1. Agree, not concerned with individual operational model solutions as they are going to vary run to run. The ensembles show a lot of potential. Looks like there are two risk periods…Jan 6-7 and Jan9-10 timeframe. I think whatever happens on the 6/7th could set up a larger east coast storm opportunity on the 9/10th.

      Reply

  32. I would love to see the 6th -7th be the appetizer before the main course comes later in the week. I remember back in 2015 there was a moderate snowfall event before the blizzard of 2015 a few days later.

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  34. Radio Ouch #1: WBZ earlier this morning. Paraphrased – “A washout weekend, in fact three rainy days.” Nah, not really. 🙂 It’ll precipitate under 50% of the time today through Monday.

    Radio Ouch #2: Safety Insurance commercial run weekly on the Pats broadcasts. “Tornadoes have gone so far off course (from Tornado Alley) that they have hit every New England state in the last 5 years.” …………..Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm…………. Yeah. New England averages 8+ tornadoes per year. This is SO incorrect it’s not even remotely amusing.

    So have we just stopped educating people who make it on the air?

    Reply

    2. I’d like to think this is new but I stopped listening to radio forecasts too many years ago to count. I have never understood why news folks give forecasts and weather info rather than trained meteorologists

      Reply

  37. Thanks TK!

    Long awaited, Pacific-induced end of year warm-up in the Northeast is in progress. Accompanied by an uptick in severe weather across the Deep South.

    Otherwise: 1/5-1/20. Been talking about it for weeks at this point. That period may be remembered for a long time across the Central and/or Eastern US.

    In terms of “will there be significant snow with the cold in SNE?”, my thinking remains yes, but I do have the concern of blocking being too strong and/or the mid-latitude flow too progressive at least at times, which would be more of a cold/dry. But I don’t think that will be the entire time.

    I also have a suspicion that it’s not going to stop at 1/20. There will probably be overall moderation and more in the way of “ups and downs” beyond then as a more traditional La Nina pattern tries to develop. But in a climatologically cold time of year, that can bode well for wintry precip chances, especially across the interior, but even to the coast especially if we lay down some snowpack in the meantime…

    Reply

    1. I hope the window is open past 1/20. I know meteorologist Steve DiMartino a few weeks ago on X posted he thought early January to mid February was the window for this winter when it comes to cold and snow chances.

      Reply

      1. Don’t go by exact dates. This is an approximate. In other words, if nothing has happened on January 5, it’s not a “bust”.

        Reply

      2. “Awful” doesn’t begin to describe this team.

        I still plan to watch the final game next week, whenever that is. Date/time still TBD.

        If Buffalo doesn’t have anything left to play for, it might be the Patriots best shot at a win.

        Reply

    2. I’ll keep watching as I’m a lifetime fan but they absolutely suck !! I can’t believe that Kraft has let it come to this . Vrabel wants to coach this team so bad & Kraft won’t hire him . From ownership, to coaching , to product on the field it’s just not a good look !! I really feel bad for drake as this guy is going to be a really great QB in time, he’s not there yet as he needs a real team around him . Clean house Kraft & spend some money right now on your team , not your weight room .

      Reply

      1. Coach Mayo will still be here next year. He deserves one more chance. If he can win at least 8 games he deserves another year after that imo.

        Reply

  39. To WxWatcher’s point about this upcoming pattern not just being a fleeting two week thing……Just took a look at the Euro weeklies and they look cold for the NE right through the end of January, then temps look about average as we get into the first half of February. No torches modeled (just dont look at the February CFS….)

    Reply

  43. Man that was an awful game you can tell the players are not really trying.
    things needed to do
    1. Fire Mayo. ( I understand he is new with a bad roster but coaching has been a real problem and that comes down to him and he did nothing to fix it)
    2. Covington needs to be fired
    3. Oline coach I feel like needs to be fired they need to find someone that is good for todays game
    4. Draft needs to be heavy Oline and get a pass rusher.
    5. FA wide receivers

    I know people want AVP to be gone, but I am not sure he deserved to be the scape goat for Mayo, Wolf and Krafts. He has shown improvement with what he has done but the most important thing is Drake Maye. We do not want another one and done OC like Josh was with Jones.

    I would like Mike Vrabel to be the HC thought that since he was let go by the Titans. Unfortunately I think Mayo will be kept by kraft. It wouldn’t be the route I go if I was the owner but they will. With that said, if they do keep with Mayo, they better have a good off season and a winning record next year. If not and they continue to do bone headed coaching decisions and bad product on the field, Mayo is fired by the Bye week.

    Reply

  44. I’m for giving Jerod Mayo another year.

    This roster, save for Maye and Gonzalez is atrocious. Vrabel and any other coach wouldn’t win more than 3 games with this roster.

    I’m for getting rid of the GM and having someone else draft. Also, The Krafts have to commit to spending on free agency.

    If you can legitimately tell me 2 offensive linemen, a WR that can get open, a pass rusher and a line backer, ALL of whom can play, get added to the roster, then give Mayo a year with that and let’s see what he can do.

    I don’t know what he’s supposed to do with this roster left behind by BB and a cheap owner. I support Mayo.

    Reply

    1. I would be for that but the defense is way worst this year than last year. Play calling is worst than last year. Unlike last year in which the players were the problem, coaching has also been a major problem this year and Mayo has not fixed any of it. Bill would be on the side lines coaching even if the game was out of control or they were beating down on a weaker team, I see Mayo just standing there on the sideline doing jack squat. I do not see any in game adjustments from the staff either. I also hate hate how he puts blame on other people including his players. Bill would never do that and would be critical of himself before anyone else even when he didn’t deserve it. I was an always will be a big fan of BB. Meanwhile I have lost all my respect for Kraft. These past two years have shown who the real problems stem from and it wasn’t Brady, it wasn’t Bill it was Krafts.

      Reply

    2. Mayo is BB trained. I said here and elsewhere when he was announced that he would struggle if for that reason alone. But it doesn’t mean he isn’t trying. BB, and I’m sure with some help from Kraft if only turning a blind eye, have already damaged the career of a promising QB, Mayo needs a chance.

      Reply

        1. Lock it in. No need to run the model from here. That’s definitely the final solution. 😉

          BTW, MJO outlook is a little more favorable now. Showing a migration through phases 7 into phase 8 with a gradual strengthening. This would be better news for the classic winter weather fan.

          Reply

            1. Mentioned earlier that. 1/7 is My mom’s angel day….. but with things as they are in my life, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she send a smile

              Reply

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