Sunday December 29 2024 Forecast (8:13AM)

84 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

A dense fog sits across much of the WHW forecast area early this morning, and will be a hindrance to travel. This fog has thinned out and dissipated along the South Coast where a warm front has now moved through, and this front will progress northward, along with a band of rain showers. As it moves along, the fog will gradually diminish and temperatures will rise. The low pressure area pulling this front through will then send its cold front through the region Monday morning, with widespread rain showers. Drier air arrives behind that front during the afternoon and evening, and a weak area of high pressure sliding by to our south provides fair weather for the final day of 2024 on Tuesday. Another low pressure area moves our way for the first day of 2025 on Wednesday. This one will bring another slug of mainly rain to the region, though its track right over the region means that some higher elevation areas well north and west of Boston may be borderline in temperature so that some mixed precipitation may be part of the event. A little bit of fine-tuning needs to be done ahead of that system. Behind that system, colder air begins to move into the region along with a gusty wind and a chance of a few rain and/or snow showers on Thursday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread fog, gradually dissipating from south to north. Scattered to numerous rain showers moving south to north through the region morning through midday. Highs 45-52, mildest to the south of I-90. Wind calm except S up to 10 MPH South Coast early, then S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog returns. Widespread rain showers arrive around dawn from west to east. Temperatures steady 45-52 then a slow rise. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially along the South Coast.

MONDAY: Overcast with areas of fog and widespread rain showers morning-midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing and becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Overcast. Rain likely with areas of fog. Some mixed precipitation potential higher elevations southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, becoming variable, then shifting to W late-day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of brief passing rain / snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

Solid colder pattern becomes established. Mainly dry or isolated snow showers at first (January 3), a dry January 4-5 weekend, then a winter storm potential early the following week (January 6-7).

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

Below to much below normal temperatures as a cold wave overtake the region. Too soon to say if additional important storminess is a factor, or just occasional snow showers. Leaning toward the drier side on the pattern but much uncertainty that far in the future.

84 thoughts on “Sunday December 29 2024 Forecast (8:13AM)”

  2. From Bernie:l this morning on X

    Nothing has changed in my mind from Jan6-12.There are two storms. Early in the week and late week.If early week cuts across Midwest, it sets up the POTENTIAL for a East Coast snowstorm later in week followed by brutal cold. If early wk storm cuts east then late wk storm is O.T.S

    Reply

    1. Bernie’s approach is the correct meteorological approach. He doesn’t change is outlook every 6 hours with new runs. He doesn’t watch the position and strength of forecast surface low pressure areas on operational runs in such a way that it makes him re-write his overall idea 4 times a day. He watches this stuff, but he utilizes the tools correctly when it comes to forming his forecast ideas and communicating them. He also understands the definition of the word “potential”, knowing it’s not a synonym of “definite”, and he puts out the info hoping that his followers know this as well. 🙂

      Reply

      1. I enjoy reading his posts on X. I have never known him to hype anything and he puts it out there for people like me to understand. Kind of like someone else who happens to be the author of this blog 🙂

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  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    0z gfs had the big Kahuna for the 10th, but 6z has zippo for the 10th!!

    0z Euro has the big one for the 10th. Will it also be gone with this morning’s run??? probably.

    I think I am in TK’s camp on this one.
    7th system is borderline “moderate” while the 10th is NADA or ots.
    Still plenty of time to sort this out.

    Only thing virtually a certainty is the cold coming.

    imho, likely wasted cold. we shall see.

    Reply

    1. This is a great example of why I don’t (and always remind others not to) get caught up in run-to-run details to the point of stressing. Those details matter virtually nothing beyond a few days out.

      I easily agree with Bernie on the idea of the pattern.

      Reply

  8. Good approach by meteorologist Mike Thomas

    About as textbook a Miller-A Euro run as you could hope for as well. ❄️☃️ Model still bringing big cold too.

    Again, we’re still early in the game.

    My typical approach is…

    7-12 days out – Focus on the 500mb pattern. Watch for shifts.

    4-6 days – Focus on the storm track

    1-3 days – worry about QPF/snow totals.

    Too much can change at this range. But it’s VERY nice to see especially given the widespread ensemble agreement.

    Reply

  9. Looks like ocean temps running a bit higher the normal. 45 degrees of Boston. 50.4 at the Block Island buoy. Maybe less shocking for the polar bear plunge on New year’s day.

    Reply

    2. Ocean temps I believe were right around 45 when my niece took part in the polar plunge at humarock in 2012 or maybe 2011. I was shocked how many people actually lingered in the water chatting.

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    1. I tend to avoid the 6z and 18z model runs for any of the models due to the info that goes into them. 00z is the best followed by the 12z.

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  14. On social media I’ve had posts sent to me containing far too much detail and break-down about the “potential” (they need to look up that word’s definition, too) threat for around January 6-7.

    Currently, the trough responsible for this potential threat in the US Northeast has just exited Japan. Yeah…….. Good luck with details on that one. 😉

    Reply

    1. Additionally, in thinking about it, you see all these posts about the “perfect pattern” but this also does not mean that every threat that comes along turns into a bomb / blizzard. There’s a very legit chance that the low pressure areas coming along in the pattern are not bombs, but weaker, progressive systems.

      There’s too much sensationalism out there on the net which makes it very difficult for folks like myself, SAK, JMA, WxW because we have to constantly bring it back to reality. This is obviously not a problem here on the blog, as people know this. But out there on X, Facebook, etc., it’s a huge issue. I know I sound like a recording saying it over and over, but the problem continues. I still am pleased, however, that alot of local meteorologists have begun to caution their viewers about that information out there – and I can only hope the word spreads and people become more educated on legit vs. bogus info. 🙂

      Reply

    2. I don’t think we have enough info to say if that happens with the first threat, that the 2nd one is a New England jackpot. That’s narrowing down the maximum impact of a system into a couple hundred miles for a trough that is currently somewhere in Asia. Not happening. 🙂

      We’re also talking about the GFS, which has been less than stellar. Far less than stellar, in fact. 😉

      Reply

      1. Oh, I know for sure. 🙂
        The 10th Could end up as nothing, or something really major or something in between. A whole lot of watching coming up.

        BUT, I must say last night’s oz gfs and euro really caught my attention.

        Waiting on the Euro, which I fully expect to have ZILCH or OTS for the 10th.

        Reply

        1. I still like the idea of a colder, but drier overall scenario after the initial threat (which I think will do “something”).

          But this is not it either. This pattern, in various forms, hangs around for quite a while. In other words, it’s not transient.

          Let me put it this way, this winter is not going to be nearly as “rainy” as last winter was. That was a TOTALLY different pattern.

          Reply

            1. Well, we have a long way to go for that. At December 29, we have a full 3 months and change to get Boston to my predicted range. It’ll happen. 🙂

              Reply

                1. For Boston / eastern MA, 40-50 inches. Boston’s 30 year average is 49 inches.

                  I’d keep the same idea for your area too, because I think in our coldest pattern some of our storms may ride south and hit the southern half of my forecast area harder with snowfall. Obviously, this is speculation, but not unreasonable.

  17. Thanks, TK.

    I must have sent the fog and 40s back across the Atlantic.

    It’s the same weather here as it has been all week: 44F for a high and 41F for a low with low-lying clouds, occasional drizzle and sometimes very dense fog. I must say that despite the miserable dreariness I don’t mind it. I feel happier here than I do in America. It’s kind of sad, because I love the U.S. but no longer feel at home there.

    Reply

    1. Thanks for checking in Joshua. I could never live with fog day after day after day. So sorry that you no longer feel at home back here but you should always feel at home here at WHW! 🙂

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    1. See, these op runs will go back and forth on which waves to drive eastward, and which ones to develop further and turn up-coast.

      #Ensembles
      #Trends

      Reply

  21. And the Euro has spoken. NO system on the 7th.
    NO system on the 10th. NADA, NOTHING, ZILCH!!!

    Dry and cold

    Sure, as TK indicates above, this could change with subsequent runs, but we know what is going to happen. COLD AND DRY!!!

    I hope not, but that is my fear. Time will tell. there is much time for things to change.

    If I may, I would like to point out the 0Z Euro for the 7th and the 12Z Euro for the 7th. Could they be more farther apart????

    0Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024122900&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024122912&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

    1. We actually don’t know what’s going to happen (yet) which is the entire reason why the individual runs mean nothing and the ensembles and trends mean much more.

      Yes I do have a dry leaning beyond January 6-7 for a while, but I still consider the January 6-7 threat legit.

      Reply

  23. I like 1 shot of something in the January 6-7 window (as noted above), and continue to lean cold/dry for the rest of my outlook period.

    It really isn’t until the January 13 and beyond time right now that I see a more legit potential for the full deal on winter. Cold along with the storms.

    I think we have to go through a cold/dry spell first to get there.

    Reply

  25. Regarding the cold: The signal is strong and that part is a lock. Huge area of below normal temps for much of the central and eastern US upcoming. However, here in New England, recall that I said the core of the initial cold shots may be directed at the Midwest and Southeast. THIS IS LIKELY THE CASE. So we’re not going to just go through Wednesday’s event and right into the deep freeze. It’s going to be a process that takes place over a number of days. May areas still 40+ for highs on Thursday. 30s Friday-Sunday but a slow downward trend. Storm threat is Monday-Tuesday, probably 20s to near 30. Then an extended episode of sub-freezing temperatures follows that.

    The reason I’m still in favor of the January 6-7 storm threat is I feel we have enough of a progressive pattern to allow it. The storm that goes by here on NYD, if it got stuck too far west, it would direct the next trough too far south. But I think it moves far enough away that there’s a little downstream ridge just adequate to direct the next trough far enough north so we’re impacted by the associated surface low.

    After that, however, we may block the pattern too much, so that the next couple threats are directed more to the south.

    Reply

  27. TK – Regarding the next snow threat, will it be a relative quick hitter (6-8 hrs.) or a long duration event (2-3 days)?

    You have been hinting that after this potential, we go cold & dry. Does this mean in terms of meaningful precipitation (especially snow) we will be “one and done” for the rest of January?

    Reply

    1. I don’t have a time duration for the threat. First I have to fine tune the forecast enough to be confident we receive precipitation from the system, and then I can start working on the details. That will take place around January 2-4.

      A period of cold with a dry leaning after that does not remotely mean it’s dry for the rest of January. I noted above a time frame I’m eyeing for a much better shot at winter precipitation events.

      Reply

    1. The operational model runs don’t really handle the individual waves well, which is why we’ve seen during the course of today this model go from a hit with the first and a miss with the second to a miss with the first and a hit with the second.

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  29. The 18z operational GFS is a CLASSIC example of what I say all the time. That’s a really non-trustable run. It’s really bad. Like, really really bad.

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  30. Thanks TK.

    Just arrived a few hours ago at my mothers in Amsterdam NY. Still a snowcover here which is resulting in some very dense fog and a temp of 42F. Ground was was bare the entire ride here from CT, through the Berkshires and up through Albany. Temp reached as high as 58 just SE of Albany with some breaks in the clouds.

    Still trying to go cross country skiing tomorrow in the Adirondacks so hoping for minimal rainfall and limited additional snowmelt overnight.

    Reply

      1. Ha, small world! We were hoping to go cross country skiing at Lapland Lake tomorrow which is up near Northville, about 20 min north of Gloversville. If they lose too much snow there, we might head further north to Garnet Hill Lodge which is up in North River near Gore Mtn.

        If you are looking to go downhill skiing I’d say Gore is your best bet. Little over an hour drive and they have 25 trails open last I checked. They just opened some terrain off the summit as well.

        Reply

      1. The Boxing Day Blizzard (December 2010) was a Miller A low pressure area. That was the first day of the WHW blog.

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  31. Can’t watch the operational runs st this point. Sniff the pattern, clearly the cold is coming so now we need to watch for subtle details.

    Arrived in NC yesterday with a high of nearly 70, crossed off a bucket list event to see a UNC game at the Dean Smith Center. It was awesome, something special really.

    We then came home and nearly had a heart attack watching my Commanders clinch a playoff spot for the first time in 5 years. Have faith Pats nation, Maye’s 22 and a stud. Problem is awful drafting from BB and now Mayo/ Elliott. I mean those two WR they picked are awful and a total waste. Look at Washington, 4-13 last year to probably 12-5 this year and a 6 seed. It can be done if you draft well and sign good free agents. You need a coach to also change the culture, just look at Washington. They turned the roster over in 1 year, our coach should be Coach of the year and Adam Peters should be GM of the year. Just look at the Cap space the Pats and Commanders have. So it can be done with the right people in charge. I wouldn’t fire Mayo but I would fire the OC/DC/ and GM.

    Reply

    1. Mayo has nothing to work with. The people who say fire him after 1st year don’t really know the game. If it’s the same after he’s given an actual team to coach, then ok. But this soon? That’s like missing a potential wet snow event on November 22 and declaring winter over. 😛

      Reply

      1. While I thought they had better options for a coach initially, they went with mayo. I agree with Hadi re the influence of BB in drafting continues to exist. They need to move past that and I believe they can. Mayo also needs to move past the shadow of BB and be his own person and that will take a bit of time. I absolutely agree with you, TK, re giving him a chance. Also, as fans I think we may have to adjust a bit and understand that our team will never always be on top We had an incredible two decades. Time to sit back and just enjoy the game. And that is far easier said than done

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