Monday December 30 2024 Forecast (7:58AM)

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Quick-hitting rain this morning as a cold front crosses the region. A follow-up trough may trigger one more quick round of showers early this afternoon especially west and north of Boston. This will be followed by drier weather later today and during the daytime / evening of Tuesday. Another low pressure area moves in and delivers its rain shield to our region as 2025 begins, but this system, while it’s wrapping up nicely in the jet stream, will be progressive enough that the rain doesn’t hang around too long – into the late morning hours of New Year’s Day, before it tapers off and we just have some lingering clouds and sprinkles of rain that afternoon. Breezy / windy, dry weather is then ours behind that storm system Thursday and Friday with a colder trend. I can’t rule out a brief passing rain or snow shower Thursday and snow flurry Friday.

TODAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers crossing the region through mid morning. Clearing trend midday on including some afternoon sunshine. Watch for one additional passing rain shower early afternoon mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 53-60 early, then a slight / slow temperature fall during the daytime. Wind S shifting to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 31-38. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing and becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to E increasing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Rain tapers to patchy drizzle / sprinkles. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, becoming variable around 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of brief passing rain / snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Below normal temperature pattern will be established during this time. Watching for a storm impact potential January 6-7 time frame after a tranquil January 4-5 weekend. Will monitor and update as always.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Below to much below normal temperatures. Leaning dry for the weather with occasional snow showers, but have to watch disturbances passing to south in case they are close enough for impact.

112 thoughts on “Monday December 30 2024 Forecast (7:58AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6Z GFS has the big Kahuna again for the 10th-11th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024123006&fh=282

    But goes to RAIN across parts of SNE

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024123006&fh=288&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    Total Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024123006&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Bonanza for Berks and Greens!!!!!

    But, of course we know this is the GFS!!!

      1. Oh, I am not, believe me. I just find it fascinating and almost comical seeing the run-to-run differences. There is likely something up, but I would like to see it on the Euro.

        So, I am most interested in seeing the 12Z Euro run. 🙂

        If that GFS run were to happen with a more Easterly track, it would be quite the snow storm!! Ahh, not likely, but will watch just the same.

  2. 1) Rain is already ending in the western reaches of the WHW forecast area. This will progress eastward so we’re all done (except Cape Cod) by late morning.

    2) If the “increasing clouds” are slow enough / thin enough tomorrow then there’s the potential to see the aurora in the evening.

  3. Thanks TK

    Can’t watch the operational runs st this point. Sniff the pattern, clearly the cold is coming so now we need to watch for subtle details.

    Arrived in NC yesterday with a high of nearly 70, crossed off a bucket list event to see a UNC game at the Dean Smith Center. It was awesome, something special really.

    We then came home and nearly had a heart attack watching my Commanders clinch a playoff spot for the first time in 5 years. Have faith Pats nation, Maye’s 22 and a stud. Problem is awful drafting from BB and now Mayo/ Elliott. I mean those two WR they picked are awful and a total waste. Look at Washington, 4-13 last year to probably 12-5 this year and a 6 seed. It can be done if you draft well and sign good free agents. You need a coach to also change the culture, just look at Washington. They turned the roster over in 1 year, our coach should be Coach of the year and Adam Peters should be GM of the year. Just look at the Cap space the Pats and Commanders have. So it can be done with the right people in charge. I wouldn’t fire Mayo but I would fire the OC/DC/ and GM.

    1. Good news on your Commanders Hadi!
      re: Pats
      PATHETIC management and drafting as you say.
      Mayo HAS TO GO!!!
      He is agood man, but just doesn’t have the proper skill set.
      I’d love to see Vrabal in here! FAT CHANCE of that!

      1. I don’t agree about Mayo. He has nothing to work with. And hasn’t been given a chance based on that. I mean we may as well just start a new coach every year if they don’t go 16-1 and win it all. 😉

        1. Well, You have every right to see it that way.

          I just don’t think Mayo has a handle on things. I question many of his decisions. I like him as a person, but not as a coach. Sometimes, that’s just the way it is.

          We are all entitled to our opinions and views. In the end, it is Kraft’s decision and not ours. 🙂

          1. Did I ever mention that my main mentor in meteorology and his wife were good friends of the Krafts. I recall a couple times he’d phone Bob about plans while I was sitting opposite him in the office. This was BEFORE Kraft owned the Pats (late 1980s / early 1990s).

        2. Oddly this ended up on yesterday’s blog. No idea how I did that. Loved it to here.

          While I thought Pats had better options for a coach initially, they went with mayo. I agree with Hadi re the influence of BB in drafting continues to exist. They need to move past that, and I believe they can. Mayo also needs to move past the shadow of BB and be his own person and that will take a bit of time. I absolutely agree with you, TK, re giving him a chance. Also, as fans I think we may have to adjust a bit and understand that our team will never always be on top We had an incredible two decades. Time to sit back and just enjoy the game and support the team win or lose. And that could be far easier said than done

        1. Not yet. Give him a team to coach first, then we can evaluate it.

          Not fair to him. Hard to win more than a few games if you don’t have a good enough set of players to coach. This problem is not his.

  4. Had almost full snow coverage yesterday AM, but it slowly melted awat during the day. But nightfall we were down to perhaps 50% coverage and very patchy. This morning snow
    is totally gone.

    woke up to 56 degrees! Now 55

    1. WBZ radio was in full hype mode about a “warm up” that was about 6 to 12 hours long, as if it never happens.

      “How does it go from 9 to 63!?” said one person they interviewed. It’s funny how some random person in an interview is used to make something sound unprecedented. Have these people never paid attention? For one thing, nobody hit 63. There were a couple 60 degree readings briefly. That’s also not unusual as it hits 60 at least once most Decembers. So it happened 3 times this December? BIG DEAL!!!! That’s not unusual either. The temperature at Boston is running below normal for the month-to-date. Why didn’t they mention that? The answer: Bias toward warmth over cold. It’s all over media. It’ll be interesting to see if the upcoming cold pattern is downplayed by a media that usually hypes everything. I think the built in excuse is the obsession with snowstorms. This way the cold can be more conveniently ignored by the news directors. 🙂

      1. Those persons at BZ should be FIRED!!!!
        They haven’t a clue and they have their collective head
        up their asses!!!!!

        Crap, it’s been 70 in Decmember before, so as you say, what is the big deal!!!!!

        I remember in the 60s it being 60-65 several days in a row during December. So it CLEARY has happened before.
        NOTHING new!!!

        I AGREE 100% with you rant!!!!

        Those people need a slap upside the head!!!!!

        1. It’s a very warranted rant, because I don’t like media misrepresenting what’s going on. So, we were in the warm sector of a low that passed west of us. It happens ALL THE TIME! And just because it’s December doesn’t make us immune to it.

          I’m so tired of the mentality of having to hype one side of things because the overall theme of weather and climate these days is warmth. Well, there are other types of weather too. It would have been far more impressive if a bunch of records were set in this incredible heatwave of midnight to 6AM Dec 30. 😉

          1. To add to that, I heard one of them say that Boston hit 60 again …. nah. The high so far today is 55. 😉

            BZZZZZZZZZZZT! What was I saying about misrepresentation? I rest my case. There’s not even a counter-argument to be made. I’m 100% correct.

            1. Of course you are 100% correct!!!!!
              I CRINGE along with you.

              Even on the 11PM News, I often CRINGE at what
              the news anchor says about the weather.
              And even with “some” of the METS I CRINGE and almost throw my shoes at the TV!!! (not the chief Mets, of course. most espeically some of the weekend mets. They shouldn’t even be on air!!!)

              There, I ranted a bit.

              I could name them, but I won’t.

              1. Some of the issues…

                For WBZ, ever since iHeart bought them, the format is completely different. Not just “news” but “entertainment”.

                For the local media, you do have a lot of new blood and inexperience, which plays a role. But also, they are told by their bosses to “make it entertaining” …. I don’t know why everything has to be “entertainment”. I’m not a fuddydud, but news should be news. You have your fun moments, but otherwise you give the INFORMATION! You know who excelled at this? Jack & Liz. Ch 4. We’ll never have that again.

                1. Jack & Liz could “inform” and “entertain” when warranted. The problem is these days newsrooms want to just “entertain” with a teeny bit of “info” in between.

  5. The “Wicked Boston” FB page posted that over-used SNL meme with Chris Farley: “For the love of god, stop raining!” … As if it’s been raining forever. Last I checked, where in a drought. The rain is beneficial. So I don’t see what the problem is here. We’re getting beneficial rain without the flooding. That’s a good thing!

    1. And yes, I’m on a roll against this crap today. Don’t stop me. 😉 I’ll finish when I’m good and ready.. 😀

      1. Keep it coming!!! I’m with you!!!!
        I really get PISSED OFF when the news people totally and completely misrepresent the weather!!!!

        1. I think I’ve exhausted my rants but thanks for the support. 🙂

          Once in a while it builds up and I gotta let it go. But what I was hearing in media today was setting it off big time!

          But now I’m back to just following the weather and doing my thing. 🙂

      2. While I know this isn’t new, I agree with you. In the past, the misreporting only went as far as the person listening. Now it is spread absolutely everywhere through social media. And if I hear one more person say it’s the only profession you get paid for being wrong.

        Ok now I’m taking over your rant.

  6. HRRR has picked up on a secondary trough that may produce short-lived but potentially heavy showers mainly N & W of Boston early this afternoon. Keep an eye out for that. Otherwise, the general drying trend will be underway now that the main cold front is moving offshore. Northeastern MA / NH Seacoast as well as the South Coast of MA / Cape Cod are holding onto the last of the main area of showers as we head through the 10 a.m. hour.

  7. I think Mayo needs more time because his roster is awful but also consider …….

    Let’s give BB the reigns for 20+ years, remembering that he started 5-11 and was 1-3 in year 2 until Bledsoe got crunched on the side line.

    His last few years were awful and his overall media relation and fan interaction was insulting throughout.

    Let’s give the African American coach 1 year in a league that is suspect at best, in its hiring practices.

    The majority of the leagues players are African American and why on earth would they want to sign here if Mayo gets 1 year with clearly the worst roster imaginable ??

    Now I’m all for canning Elliot wolf, because after Maye, he had about the worst draft possible.

    Can the GM.

  8. The NFL you get the right coach QB and GM you could turn things around quickly. Washington Commanders perfect example of this.

    1. I had that game on last night and as soon as I saw it go to OT I said “Washington gets the ball and they go win it.” They’re a team that knows how to win, even when it didn’t go exactly as they’d have liked.

        1. Nope. They will be a team to contend with for several years to come.

          In the mean time, I think maybe Pats fans owe the Giants a thank you. 😉

  9. Thanks TK.

    The sun is peaking out here in Amsterdam NY this morning. Still very mild at 50 degrees and breezy. The snowcover that was here when we arrived yesterday has been incinerated. Still going to try and cross country ski this PM. One of the two areas to the north of us is opening back up today albeit with thin coverage.

  10. We were up at Ogunquit for a few days and I took a break from watching the models.

    But, looking at the 12z GFS run, I see what you mean TK that initial turn to cold is a slow step down in the northeast.

  11. Please leave Mayo alone for now and let’s see what happens next year. It’s a handful of assistants/coordinators/players that do need to go.

    Yes, if the team ends next season with 3-4 wins, then Mayo SHOULD go obviously.

  12. How will that piece of the polar vortex set up in southeast central/southeast Canada, will effect whether something can come close enough in the flow underneath it.

    1. There will be interesting solutions for days to come and some things probably way back in the pacific or over Siberia will need to come a lot closer to be better sampled and how they will interact with the blocking near/east of Greenland.

  13. From Meteorologist John Homenuk

    If you are spending your time analyzing deterministic model runs to death in this pattern, you will drive yourself insane. We have broad storm threat periods at this range & not much more. The overall regime continues to look exceptionally favorable for both cold & snow chances.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Certainly no changes to my thinking on the pattern. My 1/5 start timing is going to be more like a 1/2 in terms of bringing the cold air in, but like TK and Tom have said it’s kind of a stair step through the first week of January. From there, absolutely brutal and long duration Arctic blast week 2 of January. Will be brutal for SNE but the bigger picture concern may be utility and/or agricultural impacts much farther south. Gulf Coast snow anyone?

    From a SNE precip perspective, still the concern of things being too suppressed/progressive, but several snow opportunities will present themselves in that 1/5-1/20 window and if I was playing the odds I’d favor at least one widespread significant snow event in SNE, at least.

  15. Hopefully the window will stay open past 1/20. As I mentioned on Saturday Meteorologist Steve DiMartino on X posted a few weeks ago he felt the window for cold and snow chances for this winter would be early January to mid February.

  16. Thanks, TK!

    55 degrees with 0.64″ rainfall.

    Heard the sump pump activate yesterday, the first time in several months.

  17. The Pats: They need help all around. The O-line is swiss cheese. I think they rank around 30th. The D-line is a little better. Good news is they have the top draft pick and they can trade that for a lot. Most likely Mayo will stick around but another year of the same and he’ll be gone. I will end up watching every game this year. Painful but I remain loyal to all Boston teams in the good and bad times.

    1. Fair comment. Let’s see if they can figure how to draft.

      I didn’t watch any games…or maybe I watched one or two….but not for any reason on other than I always seemed to have something to do. I’m going to try and watch playoffs. But I’m so out of touch I have no idea who the teams are

  18. you had to pull my fingernails off, I would lean toward more of a 1/6 storm than 1/10 storm, but my interpretation of the pattern transition and broader evolution is post 1/15. If you remember, I was kind of delayed on storm potential onset, more towards 1/20 and still feel that might come out close to o giver or take a few days. Let’s see what comes to be. For what its worth, if we take the snow on ground average for 1/14 from the ECENS, CMCE, GEFS its about 0-3″ east to west SNE. Point being, if you ignore the day to day op runs alone, minimal screams for big snow for the next 2 weeks.

    Also exciting for weather dorks like me. Coming soon to public sites near you. ECMWF 00 and 12z 360 hour MOS. You will also be able to do specific Lat/Lon call ups in the not so distant future.

    1. The Fakemets on social media have many people convinced that we’re flipping a switch to instant extreme cold and buried in snow everywhere east of the Mississippi in a few days. They just don’t get it.

        1. BAHAHAHA!

          These people are pathetic and systematically destroying our profession for the amount of people who believe & share the bullcrap they post .. over and over .. and then when it doesn’t pan out, WE get blamed. It’s pathetic.

          I still sit on the fence because I’d feel bad for people like the folks here who love to look at the models but know far better than the clowns posting, but a big part of me wishes the models were not available to the general public.

          The “I can read the models so I know how to forecast” (which by the way is a direct quote from someone who is not a met.) mentality is rampant.

          1. This has been the worst amplification of weather disinformation factor. I got a subscription to a pay weather site, I am going to make up a fake name, and even faker credentials, and become a prognosticator of doom.

            1. There’s a guy running a FB page and web site that now has hundreds of paying subscribers. He has no qualifications whatsoever to be forecasting weather, as the only thing he’s good at is rewriting expert interpretations and trashing the NWS. I’m astounded at the amount of people who pay for bullshit.

              1. Its a significant problem for any credentialed forecaster. As we are all lumped in. Also, the public interpretation of the 7-10 day TV forecast with snow icon on day 9 means its going to for sure snow next Wednesday. Small pet peeve, many TV mets say and “we are looking at snow next Wednesday, as opposed to saying “are some indications of a potential snow threat next Wednesday, far too early for any definition or specifics. “

  19. A short end of run sample…
    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CEF LAT= 42.20 LON= -72.53 ELE= 246

    12Z DEC30
    2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL
    MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD
    (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT)
    MON 00Z 13-JAN 20.0 14.4 14.4 2.6 32006 0.00 0.00 28
    MON 06Z 13-JAN 14.4 12.9 12.9 1.6 33006 0.00 0.00 2
    MON 12Z 13-JAN 12.9 12.0 12.0 0.5 34004 0.00 0.00 0
    MON 18Z 13-JAN 30.2 11.8 30.5 0.2 32002 0.00 0.00 33
    TUE 00Z 14-JAN 32.1 21.0 20.8 2.6 26002 0.00 0.00 99
    TUE 06Z 14-JAN 20.8 17.5 19.3 3.4 17003 0.00 0.00 100
    TUE 12Z 14-JAN 24.4 19.3 24.0 10.6 20005 0.01 0.01 53

    1. I know you said this is a deterministic forecast, but is this AI assisted in some way. I think that the ECMWF makes use of one of Google’s AI models … perhaps GraphCast. I only ask because I have been reading a lot lately about AI weather models … NetMet-3, GraphCast,and GenCast.

    1. It was a good one here. The lower clouds were lit up nicely, but they were limited so it was a good mixed sky.

      Are you on Facebook by any chance? Or Instagram?

        1. Fair enough. If you were, you’d have access to a plethora of pictures that I post. 🙂 Ah well, I share some of my faves here anyway.

  20. During the discussion above of Linda Lavin, I mentioned Valerie Bertinelli. I had the wrong show in mind. VB was on “One Day At A Time” which was on during the same decade (1970s) and same network (CBS). Linda Lavin was on “Alice”. Sorry for the mixup. 🙂

    Actually both shows involved single mothers raising kids. Both good ones. 🙂

    1. They are not always the same.

      Many of the “fake mets” are indeed “snow weenies”, but the vast majority of “snow weenies” are not “fake mets”. 😉

      Most of the fakers out there do this because of the rush they get from being the “news breakers”. And many of them combine it with their inability to actually predict the weather scientifically, so they just do some combo of stealing and rewording professional material along with “wishcasting”, or choose one of the two and focus on that.

  21. Re Patriots…

    Wasn’t a fan of Mayo being named as a head coach. The jump from being an inside linebackers coach to head coach just seemed like too big a leap. Plus, when you’re following in the footsteps of a dynasty, you’re not going to have the goodwill of most of the fanbase. It’s hard to perform in that type of environment. He’s not been good at the pressers with keeping stuff that should stay in house more under wraps. I feel like that can sow discontent amongst players and make it harder to court talent. Kraft will give him another year, but I don’t think it’ll do much good. We have a few good draft positions, if there isn’t a marked change – how much longer do you give him?

    Also – re bill having losing seasons to start with the Pats… I don’t think it can be discounted that he won two rings as a DC and his 25 years in different coaching positions leading up to the Patriots as a reason why he should have been allotted more of an adjustment time to a new team (which he got to the superbowl in his second year coaching. yes, brady came into the picture – but the defense was the real story of that season in my mind.)

    Let’s see what Mayo does in his second season if he’s afforded one – but I just don’t think he has the experience to do much better than what we’ve seen.

    1. Huge mistake letting Vrabel walk again , he’s practically begging to coach this team . I just know Kraft won’t fire Mayo & he absolutely should .

  22. Fire everyone. The coaching staff, the front office, the scouts. All of them. This has been building for a few years, it’s just been amplified this year because the drafting and coaching are even worse. Mayo is not the answer. He’s in over his head, and never should have been hired in the first place. They never interviewed anyone else for the job, just handed him the keys and said here you go. The only way to turn this around is to completely clean house and bring in people with a different perspective.

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