Tuesday December 31 2024 Forecast (7:30AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

An area of high pressure to the south of New England slides eastward, providing fair weather for the final day of 2024 today. The air flow will shift from light westerly to southerly during the day. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching low pressure area, which will deliver a slug of rain to the region as we ring in 2025. The main rain area ahead of the low center will arrive in much of CT, RI, and southern MA prior to midnight, but should hold off until around or after midnight from Metro Boston northward. The main rain area than moves through overnight and exits by early morning. As a low pressure center comes right up over the region from the southwest, a short-lived easterly breeze ahead of it will become light and variable through midday Wednesday, with areas of drizzle and a few rain showers lingering, and also the opportunity for some fairly significant fog to form. As the low center starts to pull away to the north later Wednesday, a drying westerly air flow will take over, and a clearing trend will begin by evening and continue during the night. Thursday through Saturday will feature mostly dry weather outside of the chance of a passing rain or snow shower Thursday and snow flurry on Friday, but these will be fairly windy days, especially Thursday, along with a trend to colder weather daily.

TODAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH, shifting to S.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Cloudy. Rain arrives southwest to northeast. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind S shifting to E and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Rain tapers to patchy drizzle / scattered rain showers. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, becoming variable around 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts developing.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of brief passing rain / snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-50 MPH, strongest over open areas and higher elevations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Dry, colder, but more tranquil weather January 5 as high pressure moves in. Window of opportunity for snow exists from late January 6 through January 7 as low pressure passes south of the region – the track to be the determining factor on how much snow makes it into this area. A miss to the south is also a potential. Fair, cold weather follows that for late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

Pattern will feature below normal temperatures into the middle of January. Watching another window of opportunity for a snow event mid to late period, otherwise the pattern is mainly dry.

89 thoughts on “Tuesday December 31 2024 Forecast (7:30AM)”

    1. TBD. I lean toward something that resembles a light to moderate snowfall for SNE on January 7. The event after that I think goes south. I can’t speculate on beyond that more than I’ve already written in my discussion.

      Reply

  4. I wish there were a bit more certainty with the snow threats.
    So many times the runs showed OTS, only to have it change as the event approached. The models have been all over the place, but lately have trended off shore. Doesn’t mean that is the final result.

    For example. the EURO suppresses the system for the 7th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2024123100&fh=174

    But gives a hit for the 11th=12th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2024123100&fh=294

    While the GFS

    NOTHING for the 7th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&rh=2024123100&fh=186

    NOTHING for the 11th-12th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&rh=2024123100&fh=294

    So who knows what will happen. We’ll just have to continue to watch.

    Reply

    1. They’ll do ok. It’s not going to be that warm. Rain doesn’t really impact them. And the rain holds off until after most of the celebrating is done.

      Reply

  16. Well, with today’s 12Z GFS, what looks like a promising system

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024123112&fh=135&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Gets severely depressed and the life sucked out of it!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024123112&fh=165&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Inquiring minds wonder HOW this sucker ever will make it up here. Certainly NOT as depicted. Will it change? Ah, that is the question.

    Reply

    1. All we’ll get from operational deterministic runs is a lot of inconsistency, but not too many questions answered. 🙂

      Reply

    2. And the 10th-11th is also EXTREMELY suppressed!!
      Waiting on the Euro. I’m sure the 1oth-11th hit will be LONG GONE on the 12Z run. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Looks like cold and dry (at least for now) 🙂

      Reply

  18. What’s about to take place in January across this country is essentially the complete opposite to what CPC has advertised for January for months and months. I know that long range forecasting is a pain in the ass, but I’ve been saying for weeks, months, how their overly warm bias keeps coming back to bite them, and it does, and they’re not changing it. They just start by forecasting above normal temperatures everywhere beyond a couple months, and then they always have to change it for at least a portion of the country. I’m perplexed by the approach they take now. These used to be better products (again, within reason, regarding long range forecasting).

    Reply

  19. Upcoming pattern features a pretty strong -NAO and one of the strongest -AO episodes we’ve seen (may approach record negative). This and +PNA screams cold and dry for the Northeast. It also says, as I have suspected, that the coldest anomalies will take place in the Midwest and Southeast, NOT the Northeast (though still cold for sure).

    In addition, this is a bit out on a limb, but Mexico City may have snow for only the 3rd time in observed history sometime in the next 10 to 14 days. March 5 1940 & January 12 1967 are the 2 dates that snow has been observed there.

    Reply

    1. And just 24 hours ago they had 4 inches on the ground. They usually have a few days each December with little or no snowcover, but the way things fell this time, they just happened to lose it 24 hours before the month was over. 🙂 The only other year that happened (since 1939) was 1982. I’m sure it’s also happened prior to 1939, just not observed officially. But, it’s rare for sure!

      They had about 17 inches of snow this month.

      Reply

      1. It would have been better has I said it was from Nws caribou and Eric forwarded it. Comments are interesting too.

        NO SNOW on the ground in Caribou officially today. This is very unusual. Records began in 1939, and only in 1982 on 12/31 has there been no snow on the ground. There was a trace on 12/31 in 2001 and 2011. The average snow depth for today is 11.4″. #MEwx

        Reply

          1. For sure. I like when Eric, Pete and others I follow repost information. I don’t have to worry that it is from an unreliable source

            Reply

  22. Estimated arrival time for rain in Boston: 1:30 a.m.

    All of the main outdoor activities will take place free of rain.

    I also don’t think the steady rain lasts more than 4 hours there.

    Most of the daylight hours of NYD will feature drizzle, fog, and sprinkles, but no solid rainfall.

    The evening hours Wednesday may feature one more solid batch of showers from a trough swinging around the back side of the low as it lifts away.

    Reply

    1. I like the idea of the 7:00 pm fireworks. Boston has them either in the Public Garden or Boston Common. I forget which location specifically.

      Reply

      1. That’s a very successful event. 🙂

        I go to the Hampton Beach ones at 8:00 then come back and I’m home by 9:30 for the night. 🙂

        Reply

      1. Well, if they are GL cutters, they are named that because they go through the GL. 🙂

        But yes there are patterns that push those storms further south as well. Some of those turn into New England snowstorms.

        The pattern we are looking at is one that typically results in a further south storm track. It’s an AO/NAO pattern that is strongly negative. That combo, as I have said many times over the years, tends to be cold but dry, vs. cold and snowy.

        Additionally, just because the flip to cold starts this way, doesn’t mean it stays this way. If you recall, I mentioned a period of time later on where I suspect New England snow chances go up notably.

        Reply

  24. Well, the Euro is out.

    7th suppressed.
    9th-10th-11th NOTHING
    14th Suppressed!

    COLD AND DRY AND SAY GOOD_BYE!!!!

    LOUSY Winter Weather. Good for Snow Making and eventually ice skating around here. but that’s about it.

    Almost as bad as warm and rainy. Just can’t win!!

    I’ll bet anything that the cold/dry pattern ends with an inside runner or Cutter that is warm and VERY VERY WET.

    Reply

    2. I actually love cold/dry patterns. But I am definitely hoping the first threat is quick and well south. My son has to drive home from NJ on January 7.

      But as I have said many times now, and will repeat here, I favor the dry side of the cold pattern for the next week or two, and then we’ll have our snow. Boston will end up not far from normal when the winter is over.

      Reply

  25. Those at Times Square will have a slug of moderate to heavy rainfall to deal with as they gather this evening. The bad news: There are no umbrellas allowed. The good news: The heaviest rain will likely be over before the ball drops.

    An update on Boston’s rain timing: No changes. Arrival in the city approximately 1:30 a.m., after most people have finished celebrating and headed home.

    Reply

  26. Thanks TK, and happy New Year all!

    More to come on the pattern in the new year, but I agree there is no cause for despair when it comes to SNE snow prospects. Suppression will be a common concern, but there are a number of opportunities on the table. From a curiosity standpoint, I am definitely interested in the potential for snow much farther south than normal in the upcoming pattern. TK mentioned Mexico City. Let’s hit Houston and New Orleans while we’re at it. It’s possible!

    Reply

    1. Thanks tk . You guys are really putting yourselves out there for significant snows ( even on the South shore ) I hope it does happen

      Reply

      1. We’re not really putting ourselves out there. The reason it’s not likely to happen right away has been explained. A highly negative AO and/or NAO will often lead to suppression of the storm track. When we transition out of those, we tend to get most of our snow here in SNE, especially in ENSO neutral conditions, which we essentially have.

        The suppressed storm track is NOT a surprise, whatsoever. Mets like myself, WxWatcher, JMA, etc, have talked about this likely being a character of the early part of the pattern change in January. If you go on social media to the fakes and wishcasters, they are the ones who are posting single deterministic model runs that have virtually no value and choosing the ones that show “the big one” and hyping the everliving sh*t out of it. Nobody should be paying attention to them / sharing their stuff.

        Reply

  27. Michigan beat heavily-favored Alabama in a bowl game today. I think Alabama was more than a 2-touchdown favorite. The game was in Tampa and there was 20 minutes deluge of intense rainfall.

    Reply

  29. Can we hold rain off our here till after midnight. I like to ring (or boom) the new year in with a fire on the deck so I can hear the civil war cannon fired in Sutton Center.

    Reply

        1. It’s a needle-thread but let’s hope!

          Latest H-triple-R model does hold the rain in a bit longer at Times Square with rain still falling as the ball drops. Ah well! I honestly don’t think the folks there at that point will care. The occasion overwhelms the conditions. 🙂

          Reply

  31. I’m going to hit the winds a little harder Thursday. I updated the existing forecast to change from “higher gusts” to more specific #’s. I think 30 to 50 MPH wind gusts will become common on Thursday, with the strongest gusts in places like Blue Hill (higher elevations) and Logan (flat areas).

    Reply

  35. 18Z GFS for the 11th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024123118&fh=264&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024123118&fh=270&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total run Kuchera Snow. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Yeah right, 11 days of cold here and then a deluge rain event
    That would be just PERFECT! Gimmie a Break.

    We all know this will be gone with the 0Z run.

    NO WAY we get a 951 mb Bomb! No way.

    Reply

  36. Thank you 18z GFS for proving my point again about deterministic runs… 🙂

    Meanwhile, in the much more important short term, parts of the WHW forecast area may be booming in the new year with thunderstorms…

    Reply

  38. Good thunderstorms moving through Smithtown area on Long Island where my sister lives. I can’t remember thunderstorms on New Years Eve.

    Reply

    1. Oh wow. So cool. I know how much you enjoy thunder storms. I’m hoping if we have some that I won’t be too sound asleep

      Happy new year, JimmyJames

      Reply

  43. Happy New year to all of you. In terms of the snow chances for new england, I was excited for a while but there seems like we could be seeing the case of to much of a good thing is actually being detremental in terms of snow chances. As a Kid I always felt cold with dry conditions was a waste of cold as I wanted snow on the ground or falling so school was canceled. Now I always prefer snowy conditions over cold and dry but I rather cold and dry than warm/wet warm/dry in winter as the ski areas can keep the snow pack and build on it which is getting harder and harder.

    Reply

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