Friday January 3 2025 Forecast (6:43AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

The theme is cold and dry as we head through the first weekend of 2025 and into the first full week of the new year. A blocking pattern features a large low pressure circulation in Atlantic Canada and high pressure to the west, and New England in a cold northwesterly air flow, and this doesn’t change much at all. I’ve been eyeing the January 6-7 period for many days now to watch a low pressure area passing to our south, and it will definitely do that, and the closest it appears it can get is maybe to send a few snowflakes into the South Coast region Monday, if that. Beyond the opportunity for a passing snow shower wandering our way from around the Great Lakes today and tomorrow, and the aforementioned minor threat to the south Monday, there isn’t anything else to talk about besides dry weather and a cold breeze.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy morning-midday with a chance of light snow near the South Coast, then increasing sun. Highs 24-31. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Cold and dry pattern. Suppressed storm track keeps snow threats to south.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Cold continues, but storm track also edges closer with a potential storm threat evolving.

77 thoughts on “Friday January 3 2025 Forecast (6:43AM)”

  7. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Friday (or whatever day of the week it is)! This two-day, school week has really confused me! 🙂

    I cannot find the post, but I think it was Philip or Tom who pointed out the other day that this morning’s sunrise was the latest sunrise (7:10:32) of the winter! Monday, the sun sets at 4:30!

    2. I have been confused since Christmas week. I’ve looked at my phone several times daily to see what day it is. Makes me feel better to see the younguns confused too. 😉

    3. Captain, that was Tom who pointed out the latest sunrise. I’ll be glad when sunrises get back to more earlier hours! 🙂

      1. Remember 1/5-1/20 . I asked Wx about this & he is pretty certain., and it was for snow storms for us .

        1. Yes, I did read all of the commentary on the current pattern and future pattern. It would certainly be nice but I think we all know that it is not etched in stone. It is weather and it will do whatever it pleases. 🙂

          1. No it is not. We shall see. TK says that the suppressed pattern WILL relax opening the door for a Snow threat.
            But, until it happens, a threat is just that, a threat.
            Color me, I’ll believe it when I see it. 🙂

          2. It sure will !! I did ask him if it did not pan out would it be considered a bust & I am pretty certain he said yes , time will tell right , but I am rooting hard for it to happen

            1. I am not sure how you consider it a bust when there has not yet been a storm forecast. Mets like WxW and TK are simply discussing weather patterns and conditions and what could happen at this time. Would it be a disappointment for those looking for snow to not get any in a time that conditions look favorable, sure. But is it a bust, I personally would not see it that way.

              2. I have often said that if we are going to attribute a comment to a specific person, it is a good idea to cite it.

                Fortunately, we have archives. I went back in them.

                WxWatcher and TK mentioned multiple times that suppression/blocking is a factor. Both also mentioned the timing of 1/5-1/20.

                The only time I found “bust” mentioned was by TK in response to a comment by SSK. This is the conversation

                South shore Kid
                DECEMBER 28, 2024 AT 4:40 PM
                Boy I have these dates down & can’t wait to see if it produces. 1/5-1/20.

                Woods Hill Weather
                DECEMBER 28, 2024 AT 5:01 PM
                Don’t go by exact dates. This is an approximate. In other words, if nothing has happened on January 5, it’s not a “bust”.

                1. That’s not it . It was just a question. I asked to Wx . Like Tk’s posts I really like his as well , appreciate the effort

                2. Monday Vicki 12/23 . Question I asked Wx & he gave me an excellent explanation, as he always does . It was a curiosity question . Have a nice weekend.

                3. I don’t read this as WxWatcher saying for “us”. It’s for the whole northeast.

                  WxWatcher
                  DECEMBER 23, 2024 AT 3:52 PM
                  Hey! I would be surprised if most folks in SNE don’t receive at least one significant snow (say, 6”+) from 1/5 to 1/20. But there’s a lot of variables with snow, and a “big picture” prediction like this is not something you can verify in any one backyard. I’m speaking pretty broadly about the Northeast US as a whole.

                  I would say I’d call it a “bust” if we do in fact end up with a stronger Southeast ridge and a parade of Lakes cutters during that 1/5-1/20 window. That would be very opposite my thinking, and I’ll take the egg on my face if so

  9. WINTER DOLDRUMS

    A feeling of despondency: The term “doldrums” can also refer to a period of sadness, depression, inactivity, or stagnation. For example, you might describe someone as “fighting off the winter doldrums”.
    A state of bafflement: The term “doldrums” can also refer to a state of bafflement or quandary.

    Yes, that describes it perfectly.

    Now if I were younger and looking for some good ice for a hockey game or even a good skate, this stretch might be really nice. But since I am not, I can only describe this weather as BORING!!! BORING!!!! BORING!!!!

    1. Good luck finding any ice strong enough for a human (or even a small dog for that matter) these days. Too many times during the winter on the tv news there’s always someone falling into the ice (usually trying to rescue their dog or someone else’s dog). Ice on ponds nowadays are no longer safe due to climate change. Our cold days just don’t last long enough. I bet even this upcoming cold spell still won’t be “cold enough”.

      Kids playing hockey on pond ice is now just a relic of the past. Enjoy those memories JPD! 🙂

  10. Only saving grace is it won’t be THAT cold during the cold and dry pattern. Daytime highs hovering either side of 32 and nights in the teens. That’s winter.

    1. Agree 100%. NO BIG DEAL at all.
      Other than no snow, almost perfect Winter Weather.
      Albeit a little windy at times.

  11. I’m enjoying the boring weather. I have never fully recovered from a fractured ankle almost four years ago. I’m sure we will get some snow for the snow lovers out there but not me. I have the fear of falling again. Before the injury I would enjoy the excitement of a snowstorm on the way but not now.
    Have a great dry and cold day.

    2. I completely empathize with you as I also broke my ankle by slipping on a patch of ice. I “baby-step” it from my car to wherever I may need to go if there is anything frozen on the ground. I am sure people watch me and think I have lost my mind but I am all set with going through that agony again.

      1. I hear you both!!! and so sorry.
        I took a header with the last snow we had here before Christmas! I broke my fall with my left hand.
        HOW I didn’t break something is beyond me!!!! Bones of steal??? I dunno and I weight over 250 pounds, so that was a lot of weight to stop on a fall. I was walking along and next thing I knew I was on the street. I missed a little patch of ice extending out into the street.

        MUST BE MORE CAREFUL!!!

        But, even given that, I look forward to the next snow event.
        I’ll just be a bit more cautious. 🙂

  12. Crazier things have happened 3 days out from a potential storm, but I get the feeling this one is locked in to stay south. No trends in our favor that I’ve seen.

  13. Walked the shore this AM. No wind at that hour though it’s picked up since, but still nothing like yesterday.

  15. Baltimore and D.C. if this pans out will have more snow than Boston after that storm system. D.C. could get close to have the normal snow for the entire season with this storm system. 14.1 is the average snowfall for a winter in D.C.

  16. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    I’d feel pretty confident in the big picture pattern to the 10th, as you can see the NAO and AO outlooks have strong agreement in their indices.

    But from about the 11th and definitely to the 15th, the outlook for the AO and NAO are much more uncertain, which will have a big effect on the 500 mb pattern.

    With that, I’m looking out, today, on the models to about 150-168 hrs or so with some believability. After that, it could look starkly different in that time range, post Jan 10th, just a few days from now, as we get closer.

  17. Thanks TK.

    12z GFS Run Total Kuchera Snow is quite comical with deep snowpack being laid from the Midwest over to the Mid Atlantic with storms tracking just south of us and similar deep snowpack being laid across the interior Northeast from Lake Effect and upslope snows in the mountains. Only snow hole is right over SNE and the NY Metro area, lol…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010312&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

    So the well advertised cold and snow pattern in the Eastern US for the first half of January is verifying, just not in our immediate backyard……yet. Still seeing signs on the models that the blocking pattern may start breaking down enough by mid month to get some storm threats further north into SNE.

  18. Good snows the last three days in the mountains…

    Killington 10″
    Stratton 11″
    Stowe 16″
    Jay 28″

    Trail counts are going back up! And with non-stop snowmaking availability the next two weeks, I’d expect most ski areas to be nearing 100% open by MLK weekend.

  19. Meant to post this the other day but we ended up with 54.25″ of rain on the year for 2024 on my rain gauge so despite what was essentially a 3 month drought, still ended up solidly above normal for precip on the year.

    Also received 1.10″ from the Wednesday event so starting out 2025 pretty strong.

  20. Baltimore and DC could also exceed Worcester (10.2”) for total snowfall to date as well. It will be interesting to see if it happens. ❄️

  21. To Robert, Sue, JPD:

    So sorry about your recent falls on the ice. At your conveniences, you can read my last post from the previous blog at the very end. I mentioned about how bad many sidewalks are following snow events.

    1. Philip, Sue and Robert were injured. Other than a small cut, I was not. Big difference there, but you are correct about the side walks. I see that here in JP as well.

  23. Good afternoon all!!

    First up, a quick clarification on the meteorlogically-used term “bust”. It’s not an actual weather term. It’s just a word that some meteorologists used for a forecast that did not work out as expected. And most often it is applied to a SHORT TERM forecast that goes awry. Here’s an example: I forecast a 1-3 inch snowfall tomorrow. The storm responsible forms a synoptic band I didn’t anticipate, and the entire area gets 4-6 inches. That’s a forecast bust. It can go the other way too. Another example. I forecast a 1-3 inch rainstorm, and a high pressure area to the north is stronger than expected and dry air holds on longer and the rain area is partially obliterated, giving the region only 1/2 inch of rain and over a much shorter duration. My wet weather forecast would be considered a busted forecast.

    An incorrect use of the term is when a storm misses a region (but was expected to miss). There are a lot of people in social media land who have hijacked the term and use it incorrectly. I’m not a fan of that, but whatever – nothing I can do about it.

    So let’s go back now and revisit what folks like myself and WxW said. We highlighted a pattern that favors suppression of storms to the south, meaning colder but generally dry for New England. We also talked about further down the road when the blocking can relax and increase the opportunity for storminess to migrate further north, increasing the chance that a snow event could occur in New England. HOWEVER, there is nothing here that can “bust”, as we’re not forecasting specifics, but general pattern expected behavior. And everybody knows that forecasting the general pattern over a week away is hard enough, nevermind trying to pinpoint a storm threat and its specific behavior. So let’s refine the definition of what is basically a meteorological slang word, “bust”, to a short term forecast that doesn’t work out. It’s more often applied to getting less of something than expected, but it’s not limited to that use. I’d focus on the actual forecasts that I write, and that mets like SAK, WxWatcher, and JMA add their professional opinions to when they feel the need to do so. And of course the opinions of “seasoned” model watcher are always welcomed too, since everybody here is open to learning.

    Ok, onto the actual weather…

    I don’t really have anything to add right now, since I don’t really see anything that looks different to me than what I wrote for DAYS 1-5, 6-10, & 11-15 this morning. So for that, the next update will be tomorrow morning. 🙂

    Have a great weekend!

    1. Thank you very much. This was exactly what I thought. Ans throughout you and WxWatcher have been I. Agreement as time/posts progress. Honestly, I am not a fan of the word bust.

    2. Thanks Tk . Not sure why a great conversation amongst myself & fellow blogger needed so much attention as you all saw our conversation., Tk I am most certainly not saying you . I hope you have a nice weekend Tk & go Pats !

      1. Well, let me be clear about this. It’s not a SSK-centric topic. You happened to be one who asked a question about a term which spurred a wider discussion on it, specifically the use of the term, which I took steps to clarify above, since it relates to weather and this is a weather blog. That should come as no surprise. The same discussion from any other bloggers would have triggered the same clarification post. That’s what I do here.

      2. You brought attention to the topic again which is why I responded with how I view a “bust”. Of course TK had a much more knowledgeable response on what a “bust” is and although I never said it, I also thought it was more of a short term forecast than can bust, not the discussion of an overall pattern. No harm, no foul.

  24. Thanks TK.

    I don’t have anything to add on your very well-written comments above. I honestly don’t think this pattern change could’ve worked out any better from what we’d been expecting. Heck, add onto that, I think we did a real good job also with a long stretch of cold and mostly dry in December, and the turn of the year warm-up. It’s hard, and risky, to forecast any extended period of “below average” temperatures in today’s day. The reality is, cold ain’t what it used to be. That’s why CPC is so reluctant to show it on their monthly and seasonal outlooks (a practice that I, and I know TK as well, disagree with).

    FWIW, I do believe it remains likely we come out of this 1/5-1/20 window with a widespread snow event in SNE. But what was a legitimate storm threat for 1/6 looks like mostly a miss. So as TK has chronicled well, at this point it looks like that snow chances would be later in the period, 1/12 or beyond.

    And, as I’ve mentioned several times, the door does not necessarily close at 1/20. I’ve purposefully been much more non-committal on what happens beyond then. If you’re expecting to break out the flip flops beyond then, I think you’ll be disappointed. But I’ll have more to add on that soon 🙂

    1. Fabulous! Thank you for this and I’ll be looking forward to your thoughts beyond 1/20. I know that I fully agree that we won’t be breaking out the flipflops, unless you’re me and you’re going to Hampton Beach to put your feet in the water sometime later this month. 😉

  25. I saw the crescent moon and planet Venus side by side in the western sky just after sunset.

    Beautiful and breathtaking! 🙂

    1. Subject of my photography at the moment. 🙂 Now I have to go get dinner for mom, but yes!

    2. I’ve been watching and agree with you, Philip, that it is beautiful and breathtaking. As I think everyone knows, we think of God’s fingernail as my mom’s moon and her angel day is January 7

  26. One look at the GFS forecast snowmap I posted at 12:21PM above (and granted it is the GFS so don’t take it verbatim) and it is evident that the well forecast cold and snowy pattern in the East from now through at least 1/20 is verifying. Widespread cold and snow getting laid down in the coming days, with one small area missing out on the snow FOR NOW (NY metro area up into SNE). The Monday storm could easily have been a significant snow producer for us with a track 150 miles north. Forecasting storm tracks and precise areas that get significant snow a month in advance is near impossible. We will get our chances mid month and beyond when the blocking relaxes.

    1. This is 100% correct, but there are a lot of people out there who have a bias, which in this case is termed “backyard bias”. In other words, if it doesn’t happen in my back yard, it doesn’t happen, and they were wrong. I see it all over social media.

      1. Yes Sue I’ve been using them for a few years now . It’s cheap , easy & going towards a good cause .

  28. I believe that 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of the ECMWF’s existence. The Euro was conceived in the early 70’s and became real in 1975 though I am not sure how functional it was at that point. I think it produced forecasts later in that decade and may have started daily forecasts in the early 80’s.

    It has stood the test of time and today is an essential contributor in the development of AI models. Despite the fact that I personally feel the Euro has lost some of its luster, it is after all a survivor. Not much lasts for 50 years in the world of computing / super-computing.

  29. 0z GFS looking more interesting for 1/10 and was close to something bigger. Canadian and Icon have a good setup for a few days later.

    More interesting times perhaps in play after this upcoming dry week.

  30. Time for the occasional reminder that individual systems on op runs are not going to tell you much, other than why not to pay much attention to details.

    The last 3 GFS op runs have put a low center for January 18 …

    1) A few hundred miles southeast of New England.
    2) Over Pennsylvania.
    3) Over the western Great Lakes.

    SAME LOW. About a 1000 mile spread over 3 runs. Bad.

    Ensembles. Trends.

    Inconsistencies like that are a big red flag.

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