Saturday January 4 2025 Forecast (7:41AM)

109 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Our pattern remains cold and for the most part dry, but we have a decent westerly air flow allowing some moisture to make its our way via the Great Lakes in the form of occasional cloudiness. Some of these clouds are capable of releasing snow showers, but most of them are just light flurries. This continues this weekend. Monday, a quick-moving low pressure area will pass just south of the region and I do not believe any of its snow shield will make it to New England. After a lighter northerly wind as that low goes by and interrupts the larger scale northwesterly air flow over us, the latter will return Tuesday and Wednesday with more cold and dry weather on tap.

TODAY / TONIGHT / SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Highs 27-34. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-13)

Cold and dry pattern. Suppressed storm track keeps snow threats to south, but one system may make a close pass around mid period so it’ll be watched for sneakiness.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Cold continues, but storm track also edges closer with a potential storm threat evolving – nothing specific to detail this far in advance.

109 thoughts on “Saturday January 4 2025 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  2. I really don’t want to have to do this kind of thing, and i’m only sharing it here as an example, not as a teaching tool, because everybody here knows better…

    I will be sharing this screenshot of a post on Threads and other social media platforms that appeared twenty four hours ago.

    This literally takes a single GFS run and its bogus snow map from several days ago, with the time label cropped out, and turns it into a gross hype post.

    This post is a perfect example of everything that is wrong with people like this on social media regarding ” weather information”.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/kBWKaeXkf41ky4HPA

    Reply

    2. I am not a social media type just for this reason. It doesn’t matter what the subject is … weather, sports, politics, etc … I always feel there is more false than true information.

      Reply

      2. I completely understand this, and I stubbornly always try to see it for its good side, and there IS a good side. I just wish more people would use it that way.

        Reply

        1. That looks like an obvious fake text or email I get occasionally. Sometimes a close call of “real vs. fake”. The poor English is a tip-off if nothing else. I would like to think 90% not falling for that.

          Nice fantasy storm though. 😉

          Reply

    3. Thankfully 90% of the replies are people absolutely rinsing him for posting it and what he said. Calling him a fear mongerer. Which, side note, I always loved that phrase because I think of fish mongers who throw around fish at the markets in a wild fashion, then I think of demons throwing around fears as fear mongerers.

      Reply

  5. 6z Nams want to bring the Northern fringe of the Monday system up to about Boston. Even if so, would be very light, perhaps only flurries?
    Waiting for 12z runs.

    Also, NO support from any other models as they all keep it South.

    Can’t hurt to watch just in case.

    Reply

    1. That’s not necessarily an unreasonable depiction, but probably the northern 30 to 50 miles of that “snow shield” would be falling as virga. This model does that a lot.

      Reply

      1. I was just going to post that I saw that on College of DuPage, but Pivotal Weather has precip shield to the South. So, I don’t get that at all.

        One must factor in what you just posted.
        ???

        thank you

        Reply

    1. There’s always a chance …….. but nothing in the cards soon.

      Odds of stuff like that go up in a much more energized subtropical jet stream set-up, which we do not have.

      Reply

      1. As always I have no memory of that whatsoever. I remember the 1978 Blizzard vividly from beginning to end 47 years ago but these events of a few years ago, absolutely nothing.

        Thanks Jimmy! Keep posting these! 🙂

        Reply

        1. Our furthest pass is in our summer.

          In contrast, the opposite is true for the southern hemisphere.

          The impact of this is nearly negligible. There is a slightly greater range of extremes in the southern hemisphere vs. the northern hemisphere in terms of observed temperatures, but part of that is also because of placement of observation sites.

          Reply

    1. I made a joke one day that there’s probably a “national clip your toenails day” … Well …………. there is. April 25. I’m not kidding.

      Reply

  12. TK – Could DC and/or Baltimore get very close if not surpass Worcester snowfall to date (10.2”)?

    Also does the accumulating snow get as far north as NYC?

    ORH = 10.2”
    BOS = 5.7”
    NYC = 2.8”
    BAL = TBD
    DCA = TBD

    Reply

    1. They can, but it won’t stay that way.

      It’s not totally unusual to see a location with a lower snowfall average have more snow than an area with a higher snowfall average at this point in the season, depending on the pattern.

      I expect NYC to get a trace of snow from that system.

      Reply

      1. Of course I never expected for DC to keep up with Worcester for the entire winter season, not even close. This is probably DC’s only serious snow event. I know better but it is fun to watch even if it’s very temporary. 🙂

        Good that Boston’s lead over NY will still be safe. Just got a bit nervous there. 😉

        Thanks TK!

        Reply

        1. It will probably also be “not there” on the ensemble mean too.

          The mean will have some measurable snow here on account of the “outliers”. Not surprising to see that. But with time it’ll adjust to what the pattern favors as a suppressed track and a graze or a miss.

          Our better opportunities come after we hit the mid point of January.

          Reply

    2. Just had a post sent to me I hadn’t seen from 6 days ago from another person “playing weatherman” on Facebook about the 2 storms coming to hit New England on January 6 & 8. The first one a significant snowfall, the second one a massive blizzard.

      Nope.

      Meanwhile, the actual mets were calling for storm track suppression. Hmmmmmmmmmm. How did we ever arrive at that? Oh yeah … science!

      Reply

  16. 12z GFS: 963 low just south of New England.

    12z GDPS: 1003 low off the South Carolina Coast.

    Same system.

    What was it I said about deterministic runs beyond a couple days? 😉 Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

    Reply

    1. Ironically it may be around the 20th of January where we are starting at our first legit widespread threat, believe it or not.

      It’s around that time the pattern actually favors it more than any time in the next 10 to 15 days. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Isn’t there a “national holiday” on that particular date? Hmmm. 😉

        Yes TK, I get that Mother Nature doesn’t care about our holidays. If that were the case, she would be sending snow “on cue” every December 20-25 around here. ❄️ 🙂

        Reply

  20. As expected, the GFS ensemble mean for the threat next weekend is a couple inches in general, skewed up by outliers of course.

    Far lower than that one operational run, and higher than what is most likely.

    Reply

  21. I fully expect that the operational version of the ECMWF will have a more realistic simulation of what the system passing our longitude a week from now will behave like, and I suspect it will put a surface low somewhere between the position the GFS has and the position the GDPS has at an intensity somewhere between the 2, but closer to the GDPS intensity as opposed to the GFS intensity. Now we wait and see, because after all even the ECMWF is not immune to what I say about the op runs. And of course I’ll check those ensemble members as they become available.

    Reply

    1. Close, but not quite. The ECMWF op run is pretty far north, but weaker than the GFS. This tells me there was an issue with the 12z initialization data that got to the models, and they blow up in their own style. I don’t think the ECMWF will have any ensemble support.

      These runs will be different again at 18z / 00z.

      Reply

  22. “Double helix in the sky tonight. Throw out the hardware. Let’s do it right.”

    Name the song these lyrics belong to. 🙂

    Reply

        1. The talent that has been utilized in that band is off the charts. The low brow dry cynical humor they wrote with. I just adore them. They also remind me of my brother, a real lot. 🙂

          Reply

          1. Understand that of course. 🙂

            I just didn’t like the music, nothing against the band members. My taste in music, as you know, is pretty narrow. There are often times I wished I had a wider taste in music, but sadly, it is not the case.

            I have no issue whatsoever with people liking whatever they want. 🙂

            Reply

  24. 12Z EURO for the 11th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025010412&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025010412&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Caution. Some of this may include sleet, not that it matters IF this is all FICTION!

    Did someone say the Ensemble mean would NOT even show this???

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2025010412&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    hmmm

    Reply

    2. I used to sing this song a lot. 🙂

      Jess Cain played it. That is correct.

      This record may actually be in my basement…

      Reply

      1. Thanks for the memories Captain! ❄️ ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

        Reply

  29. Thanks, TK!

    And, thank you for posting the top songs on 1984 a couple of days ago! Your list inspired me to go look for my list of the top songs of 1974. I found my two notebooks that contained the Top 10 songs for every week of 1974 from WBZ-FM, 106.7. “Capt.” Ken Shelton counted down the Top 40 songs in Boston each week. I have notebooks filled with music, weather and sports records and memories throughout the years.
    I, too, have Capt. Ken’s Top 40 of 1974 on cassette tape and have digitized it!

    I sent in a self-addressed, stamped envelope in each week and got the Top 40 printed on a card. I even won a Yes album from Capt. Ken!

    I will be listening to the Top 40 tomorrow as my indoor activity.

    Here are the Top 40 songs in Boston for 1974 as determined by WBZ-FM and as recorded this 14-year old kid. It is mindblowing that these songs are more than 50 years old!

    40. Everlasting Love ~ Carl Carltton
    39. Help Me ~ Joni Mitchell
    38. Tell Me Something Good ~ Rufus
    37. Takin’ Care of Business ~ Bachman-Turner Overdrive
    36. Tin Man ~ America
    35. Can’t Get Enough ~ Bad Company
    34. Seasons in the Sun ~ Terry Jacks
    33. The Show Must Go On ~ Three Dog Night
    32. Another Saturday Night ~ Cat Stevens
    31. Rikki, Don’t Lose That Number ~ Steely Dan
    30. Dancing Machine ~ Jackson 5

    29. Star ~ Stealer’s Wheel
    28. Waterloo ~ Abba
    27. Then Came You ~ Dionne Warwick
    26. Life Is A Rock (But The Radio Rolled Me) ~ Reunion
    25. When Will I See You Again? ~ Three Degrees
    24. Jazz Man ~ Carole King
    23. Rock Me Gently ~ Andy Kim
    22. Country Dreamer ~ Paul McCartney and Wings
    21. You’re 16 ~ Ringo Starr
    20. Can’t Get Enough Of Your Love, Babe ~ Barry White

    19. Rock and Roll Hootchie Koo ~ Rick Derringer
    18. My Mistake Was To Love You ~ Marvin Gaye and Diana Ross
    17. Rock Your Baby ~ George McCrae
    16. Rock On ~ David Essex
    15. Hooked On A Feeling ~ Blue Swede
    14. Bungle In The Jungle ~ Jethro Tull
    13. You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet ~ Bachman-Turner Overdrive
    12. I’ve Been Searchin’ So Long ~ Chicago
    11. Nothin’ From Nothin’ ~ Billy Preston

    10. I Shot The Sheriff ~ Eric Clapton
    9. You Haven’t Done Nothin’ ~ Stevie Wonder
    8. Whatever Gets You Through The Night ~ John Lennon and Elton John
    7. Don’t Let The Sun Go Down On Me ~ Elton John
    6. Harmony ~ Elton John
    5. Rock The Boat ~ The Hues Corporation
    4. Locomotion ~ Grand Funk Railroad
    3. Jet ~ Paul McCartney and Wings
    2. Band on the Run ~ Paul McCartney and Wings
    And, The Number One Song In Boston For 1974:

    Bennie and the Jets ~ Elton John

    Reply

    3. You’re getting more into my favorite decade. But I sure recognize most of these songs and am humming Bennie and the jets now.

      Reply

  30. One more stat from my vault of crazy records:

    Tonight marks the 121st anniversary of the lowest temperature ever recorded in Massachusetts: -35, here in Taunton on January 5, 1904. There was a major fire at the Taunton State Hospital that same night a couple of streets over. I do not believe there was any loss of lives, but I can’t imagine anyone having to deal with such an event on such an incredibly frigid night.

    Reply

  32. From NWS discussion

    Some indication in a few
    global ensemble NWP members of some storminess evolving sometime next weekend; with a complex interplay of phasing of trough
    energies involved which are tough to pinpoint inside of 3 days
    let alone a day 7-8 forecast, it`s still too uncertain if we`ll
    see any development, but it is something we`ll be monitoring.

    Reply

  33. I have noticed that once we get to 2:30 pm in the winter, sunlight starts to noticeably fade. Has anyone else noticed this?

    Reply

  34. No changes in the short range. The miss is a lock inside 48 hours. A few tiny flakes may make it to the ground on the South Coast beaches, at most. Otherwise, nothing.

    Too much attention will now be paid to next weekend because of 2 model runs slightly timing the energy in 2 jet streams differently. Considering where those are located now, it means virtually nothing. The pattern is not likely to support something big moving up this way until AFTER 7 days from now, but nevertheless I’d be doing my profession a disservice if I didn’t monitor it going forward.

    Reply

  36. I obviously didn’t listen to enough radio back in the day. I had no idea that there was a WBZ Radio 106.7 FM. I always thought of WBZ radio on the AM only.

    Reply

    2. From 1957 to 1981, 106.7 used WBZ as its call letters.

      After that, 106.7FM became WMJX.

      Currently, 98.5 The Sports Hub is WBZ FM. This has been the case since 2009.

      Reply

    1. The classic over-amp issue this version of the GFS has. It’s virtually never correct when it does this at this range. It comes from the inability to time phasing and the mode’s bias of intensifying low pressure far too rapidly and giving it unrealistic tracks.

      Sometimes I wish they would scrap this model and start over.

      Reply

        1. When you see it suddenly do something, and it’s more than 4 days out, and it’s the GFS (especially), … we’ve seen this, many times.

          But social media falls for it EVERY TIME. The posts are all over the place already, and they are almost as bad as that one I shared this morning.

          Reply

    2. How come nobody is talking about the ICON & GDPS still with a suppressed storm track? 🙂 I checked social media – nothing about those models! Only the ones that show the snow!

      Reply

  38. An absolutely beautiful day here in southern California. 77 and sunny in Palm Springs. We spent the morning and early afternoon checking out the city, then came back to our hotel in Indian Wells for a little time in the pool. In a little while we’ll head over to Acrisure Arena to watch Lowell take on the University of Nebraska-Omaha in the championship game of the inaugural Coachella Valley Cactus Cup. Let’s go RiverHawks!

    Reply

    1. Go Lowell! Enjoy the weather. Cold & dry here.

      After a consistent set of runs showing nothing, 1 set comes out showing snow next weekend and of course social media goes nuts. The snow obsession is borderline unhealthy in society now. People literally stress to the max over it.

      Reply

  39. Happy 2025 to all at WHW!

    Cold, dry, and sunny in Boston … that is my kind of weather.

    Here in London, there was a brief period of 2 or 3 days of spells of sun, relatively cold, and dry. And, after some rain – and even patches of snow in North London last night (higher elevations) – a period of comparatively cold (~37F-42F during the day/~29F-35F at night) and dry is in the offing later this week.

    But, the Met Office (and others here) snow and ice warnings are insanely overhyped. Worse than in the U.S. There’s been a “severe snow warning” in effect for London for several days. In the end, we got a half-inch of snow which will rapidly melt as rain moves in and 52F is expected by noon.

    Reply

  40. Local forecasts here are not localized enough. The warnings issued apply hundreds of miles to London’s north. So when the warnings are posted for London it would be like issuing such warnings for Boston when only Central and Northern New England are affected.

    Reply

    1. I think thats a general problem for anyone but the USA, here in Australia there was a Wind warning issued for SW Victoria but in reality it was only for a small portion of the NW areas of the area. Citizens in the US really do not know how lucky we are to have the NWS.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *