Monday January 6 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

195 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

Low pressure with a storied past (lots of winter weather across the country) passes south of New England today, and while its cloud shield will spend some time over our sky, its snow area will miss to the south, outside of a few stray flakes that may sprinkle themselves over the South Coast region. This moves away tonight and as the low heads into Atlantic Canada to be absorbed by the quasi-stationary low pressure circulation there, it will serve to keep us cold, dry, and windy through midweek, with no more than a few stray snow showers wandering across our winter-dry landscape. Friday, high pressure edges a bit closer and the low in Atlantic Canada slightly loosens its grip, so we’ll have less wind that day, but dry weather again.

TODAY: Early morning bright sky and some sun far eastern areas, and the process of clearing starts toward the end of the day with a nice sunset potential for part of the region, but between generally an overcast sky. Touch of light snow possible South Coast for a brief time. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing light snow shower possible. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasional under 10.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

Storm passes by to our south during the January 11-12 weekend with highest odds of a miss from it, medium odds of a South Coast graze, and lowest odds of a more widespread impact. Another disturbance going by to the north may produce some light snow or snow showers in the region at some point. Dry, cold weather follows this early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Early to mid period snow potential but highly uncertain scenario. Temperatures generally below normal.

195 thoughts on “Monday January 6 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  7. It absolutely INFURIATES me to see snow occurring to our South while we remain barren with WASTED COLD!

    I suppose it is much better than a torch. At least ski areas can make snow to their hearts content!

    Reply

    1. I’m happy. This is the pattern I forecast, and while my son is enduring a snowstorm and his girlfriend’s very important medical appointments were not canceled, he will be able to drive home safely tomorrow. 🙂

      Also I do not believe in the term wasted cold. For me, it is simply cold, dry weather, which I also love. 🙂

      Reply

  10. Thanks TK. I realize that the wind will return for the next few days but wondered if it will be as strong as last Thursday or more of an irritant than potential tree damage etc. I notice there are not any warnings yet.

    Reply

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Cold, dry, and sunny … Not a realistic scenario for Northwestern Europe. But one of the marvels of a New England winter. I know that some view it as wasted cold. But, please believe me, you’d be begging for wasted cold if you were over here. I love it here in many ways, but the weather is for the ducks and dogs. They like water and mud after all.

    Reply

  12. Happy Little Christmas! We celebrated the Italian tradition of La Befana with the kids this morning. They woke up to little treats in their shoes.

    Reply

  13. Thanks tk. This mornings run was dry and cold!

    Re patriots – Mayo getting fired is a good thing, in my opinion. I’m not opposed to former players as head coaches if they have good experience under their belt. The NFL is very much a league of what results do you have for me now league. Throwing someone into the head coach position with very little experience never made sense to me. There were plenty of better options like Eric Bieniemy who I thought the patriots should have courted. Not a fan of Vrable as a head coach either. Whoever they select, I hope it’s someone who injects fresh blood that isn’t some sort of past dynasty connection. That’s the kind of stuff the cowboys do.

    Reply

  18. Sunday Sports.

    Celtics: Needed win to stop the Thunder streak. They lost.
    Bruins: Needed win to get more points. They lost.
    Patriots: Needed loss to get 1st pick. They won.

    Reply

  19. A little light snow happening where I am. Won’t amount to anything but nice to see.
    I am in the wasted cold camp. If you can’t get snowfall when you have the cold it is a waste.

    Reply

  21. Nice to look at but we know how it will turn out. For the majority of on this blog we will not be happy with the outcome.

    Reply

  27. Both the latest GEFS and EPS I saw have trended more NW from where they were yesterday so I would not put the nail in the coffin quite yet, especially after these runs.

    Reply

  28. From NWS Albany this AM regarding the weekend threat. It’s applicable for SNE as well and why I am not getting my hopes up……….

    Attention then turns to next weekend when another storm system, at
    this point, looks to pass us by to the south. Deterministic
    solutions, though slightly varied in the evolution of the system,
    generally favor the disconnect of the northern and southern streams.
    The lack of phasing of two shortwaves embedded within these flow
    regimes would lead to a faster, more east-northeasterly track of a
    developing surface low in the deep south which looks to become a
    coastal low off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday
    afternoon. If this is to be realized, much of our region would
    remain dry through the weekend, with only light snow showers
    possible in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England.
    However, if there were to be phasing of the two aforementioned
    shortwaves, the track of the coastal low would be slower and shifted
    farther west, giving us a potentially significant snowfall. This
    isn`t out of the question being that there is still a fair amount of
    lead time ahead of the system, but based on latest ensembles, the
    probability for even sub-Advisory snowfall is very low.

    Reply

  29. UKMET IS quickly spitting out panels. I think this “may” give us a clue as to where the Euro might be on a solution???

    Reply

  30. Insane snow amounts coming out of the recent lake effect event in Upstate NY. The intense lake effect plume that developed essentially parked itself over northern Oneida County for 5 days straight, with only slight oscillations north and south and buried the area in 5-6 feet of snow. These were some of the snow amounts from NWS in Binghamton. Scroll down to Oneida County:

    https://www.weather.gov/bgm/helpPublicInformationStatements

    My ex’s father actually lives near Stokes Corner (about 5 miles north of Rome) where they received 75″ of snow since Wednesday and he sent these ridiculous pictures. Look at the snow on his roof!

    https://imgur.com/Spi5hNG

    https://imgur.com/gw42Evn

    He is 83 years old and was able to snowblow the driveway (several times) himself. Fortunately he has someone coming over to rake off his roof today.

    Reply

    1. The lake effect band at one point was so strong that it extended all the way down to the Mohawk Valley to my mother’s in Amsterdam and even she received 8-10″. Can never remember a lake effect event that large in Amsterdam in my year’s growing up there. We usually got the tail end of bands and a few inches at most.

      Reply

    2. And this from Woods Valley Ski Area in northern Oneida County:

      https://www.facebook.com/@woodsvalley/

      Woods Valley Ski Area
      Yesterday at 6:19 AM ·

      It’s unreal. We have received 76 inches of snow since Wednesday – and it’s still snowing. Here’s the breakdown:
      Wednesday – 2 inches following 5 days with light rain.
      Thursday – 12 inches.
      Friday – 26 inches
      Saturday – 24 inches
      Sunday through 9am – 12 inches.
      And I think 76 inches is conservative.
      Parking lots are opened up and the lifts are turning until 4pm. Snow conditions are epic.
      Live music this afternoon with Top of Trees – 2 to 5pm.
      See you at WV.

      Reply

    1. Nice catch Jimmy. That was a great one. I remember being on a beach on Long Island experiencing thundersnow. Schools were closed for three days!

      Reply

      1. Now that storm I do remember! Looking at that map, the South Shore received the bulk of the snowfall. They usually get skunked.
        I remember especially because I got the Monday off from work after a nice Christmas break. I was actually hoping for 2 days off. Oh well. Thanks Jimmy! 🙂

        Reply

    2. Thank you JimmyJames. I sure remember that one well. Seems like yesterday. Well maybe not yesterday but certainly not 20 years ago.

      Reply

    2. Southern stream energy is still lagging so no phasing. Looks pretty identical to the 0z run last night. Though will be interested to see if any improvement with the ensembles on the EPS.

      This seems like an all or nothing scenario to me. Phase and its big. No phase and its a complete miss well south with nothing more than some snow showers for us. With the latter now still far more likely.

      Reply

  38. Nice catch Jimmy. That was a great one. I remember being on a beach on Long Island experiencing thundersnow. Schools were closed for three days!

    Reply

  40. The 1 hope for the extreme solution is that, the southern stream energy evolves from the deep southwest US and the models really struggle to resolve, from this far out, how energy will eject out from that location.

    I do tend to weigh the miss or graze scenarios heavily from this far out, but am open to any scenario as a non zero possibility.

    Reply

  41. Turns out today’s system did get snow to reach the ground as far north as southern CT as 1pm obs have southern CT locations reporting light snow.

    Further north than I thought it would get.

    Reply

    2. Flurries here in Hartford but I’ve seen several reports of a coating to an inch of snow just south of here. A poster from Trumbull on the American Wx forum said roads are a mess down there and plows weren’t out.

      Reply

      1. Bridgeport and New Haven’s visibility at the time of the ob is 1 mile.

        Given how cold it is, I’ll be that has whitened up the ground and roads quite quickly.

        Reply

  43. Philip where I am it has been snowing lightly for about two hours. Only a coating of snow here. Snow had no problem sticking to the roads.

    Reply

  44. NY moved a little closer to BOS in the snowfall standings. As of 1pm 0.5 inches was recorded.
    Snowfall Standings and correct me if I am wrong with the BOS total
    BOS 5.7
    NY 3.3

    Reply

  45. Thanks, TK.

    (I like this weather. I love snow too, but I appreciate the more secure footing and easier driving without it, so I’m happy either way.)

    Reply

  46. Vicki, I love imagining your “wise men progress”!
    I found a spectacularly colorful jigsaw puzzle, The Journey of the Wise Men, online last week, and we had a wonderful time putting it together.

    Reply

    1. I don’t know if I mentioned this here before or not … the church that my son’s choir performs in twice a year has a set of wise men that they start progressing from the back to the front of the church along the window sills during the course of the season. I imagine they have reached their destination today as well. 🙂

      Reply

  47. These very unrealistic simulations on the GFS op runs are both amusing and annoying. HAHA!

    Central NJ, 18 inches of snow in 6 hours with a 963mb low offshore, 40 inch storm total. It’s kind of disturbing how bad the GFS is with simulating larger events beyond a few days out.

    Reply

  49. That storm down there has behaved very much as expected. No big over-production, no big areas where nothing happened where stuff was expected.

    NWS & all local media down along the storm’s path provided excellent information – far better than your social media playcasters. 😉

    Reply

  50. My estimate for total snowfall in Swampscott for the next 10 days is 114 flakes. And that’s probably over-cooked!

    Reply

    1. You may see some isolated light snow showers either or both of the next 2 days (Tue & Wed), and again for a portion of the weekend.

      Reply

  51. Reports of an inch of snow in Southbury and Fairfield in southern CT. Lots of accidents on the road. CTDOT and the local DPW’s clearly caught off guard and didn’t get the plows out. Accumulating snow was not in the forecast today in CT, at least from the outlets I was looking at.

    Reply

    1. They always have to be ready when they are “on the edge”, even if the forecasts they look at don’t indicate much or anything.

      All it takes is a coating when it’s this cold. It doesn’t just melt away on the roads. It stays. And trouble takes place.

      When you plan for something that’s a close call to potentially produce a worst case scenario, you’re not caught off guard. Woburn’s DPW practices this.

      Reply

        1. Winter. And yes, forecasts are usually pretty good, but these folks in this business know that unexpected things happen, so best to be ready and not need to go than to be caught off guard.

          Reply

    1. The southern energy is well south of here. We’ll get a touch of light snow or snow showers from the northern energy.

      I have a watcher tab on January 20.

      Reply

  53. Good video here from Bernie Rayno on the weekend threat:

    https://youtu.be/vfaSBHsOt8M

    He notes that the Euro has been consistent with no storm because it is burying the southern stream energy in the SW for too long. He notes that is a common error in the Euro to hold back energy there too long and that we cannot discount the GFS solution. Though he stopped short of saying that he thought the GFS solution was correct.

    Reply

    1. He also says that the ensembles are going to oscillate with the operationals and that two of the three pieces of energy responsible for the potential storm are still out over the central Pacific. Likely wont have a better handle on this until Wednesday. Said his initial thought was the Euro is correct but is not sold on it given it is notorious for burying SW energy too much.

      Reply

      1. Interesting that he cautioned the Euro was making an error but then said his initial thought was that it was correct.

        So, which one is it? I like Bernie, but he crossed himself up there.

        Reply

        1. I believe he meant he usually gives more credence to the Euro over the GFS but in this case, the Euro solution being spit out is at least partially impacted by its bias to hold too much of the SW energy back.

          Reply

  55. If you read my discussion & forecast above, you’ll note I have “scattered snow showers” in Thursday’s forecast. This is from a trough swinging around the back side of the Atlantic Canada low and moving through New England. These snow showers may produce some accumulation. I’ll revisit this on tomorrow’s discussion.

    Reply

      1. TBD. But I have seen this set-up before produce a general light snowfall across much of the region. There may also be a slight ocean component, but this far in advance I think that would be more a Cape Cod thing with too much northerly or northwesterly wind. The rest of the region would have to depend on the trough itself for snowfall.

        Early in the game on this. Up to this morning I’m only confident enough to have scattered snow showers in the forecast. I’ll try to refine that with more confidence starting tomorrow morning, as we’ll be 48 hours out from the potential event.

        Reply

        1. Just watching something around that time. Timing. Pattern. It’s just a date that has my attention 2 weeks in advance.

          I’d be lying if I said I could give any more info than that.

          Reply

  57. Nice NWS discussion about next weekend. ‘

    Next Weekend

    Forecast confidence drops off significantly for next weekend as a
    coastal storm is expected to develop off the MidAtlantic coast
    (North Carolina/Virginia). Where it goes from there is the forecast
    challenge of the week. Latest deterministic GFS model supports a
    strong Nor`Easter Saturday night into Sunday while the EURO model
    supports the system moving out to sea well south and east of the
    70/40 benchmark. If we consult the LREF and it`s 100 ensemble model
    members, we find that at this time more members than not lean
    towards the deterministic EURO solution which would keep the system
    south and east of the 70/40 benchmark. Probabilities of greater than
    an inch of snow anywhere in southern New England are only about 20%
    at this time for the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. While
    confidence in any snow for the region next weekend is low at this
    time, a lot can change in 5 to 6 days, as the development and track
    of this system will hinge on the complex interactions between a PV
    anomaly over Baja California and another PV anomaly expected to dig
    south from the Pacific Northwest. We`ll have a better idea of what
    to expect as ensembles hone in on a consensus forecast later this
    week. Stay tuned for further details.

    Reply

    1. 500 mb flow would take it close to BM, however, I fear the 200 and 300mb flow is much flatter which would steer it more ENE and out too far South of us. We’ll know where the ICON is going with the 0Z run (I mean we’ll know what it thinks at that time, not that it would be a final solution. ) 🙂

      Reply

  63. Hadi in terms of your comment to my comment, I wasn’t talking about your comments, I am talking about the national media that haven’t been talking about the Patriots at all this year but now because they fired a POC after one year its a big deal, meanwhile there are other coaches that been fired that are white that been put in similar situations as Mayo, yet no out cry. I understand the rules that been put in place but no matter what they do, with that owners and general managers will pick who they want regardless. The rule helps with staff but doesn’t really do what they are wanting it to do with head coaches.

    Reply

    2. Like Rayno, he mentions the ECMWF’s historical issue with holding onto energy in the SW too long., citing the 2010 Boxing Day storm. The question is…is this still a legit concern or have recent model upgrades corrected it?

      Reply

    1. Need to see some bending in the Euro solutions at 0z/12z tomorrow before this can be elevated to a legit threat IMO. But nice trends this afternoon otherwise.

      Reply

      1. All this just supports what I say about run-to-run deterministic guidance. 🙂 Especially when there’s not really any support for the extreme solutions from more reliable tools at 5 to 6 days out. 🙂

        Reply

        1. Well to be fair, there are phased NW solutions now showing up in the GFS, GGEM and Icon ensembles as well 🙂

          But, not one of the 50+ EPS members shows what the GFS is showing. At least yet…

          18z Euro will be running shortly.

          Reply

  67. NY ended up with 0.9 from the northern edge of the storm system that hit parts of the Mid Atlantic.

    UPDATED SNOWFALL STANDINGS
    BOS 5.7
    NY 3.7

    Reply

    1. Not sure why so many take the GFS bait when mets like myself explain exactly what to expect from that model.

      It’s posted all over social media – AGAIN – but only the runs that show the storm as a hit. They ignore the runs that show a miss. How interesting…………………………….

      Reply

      1. I saw that and had to do a re-read. It does at first impression sound like that’s what is said.

        But I hesitate to agree that the GFS is considered among the most reliable. It WAS, at one point. Right now, it’s not, at least at this range.

        Reply

        2. I was going to mention that earlier with all the GFS chatter. Several of our Mets…..the ones I consider the best…have mentioned the GFS sniffing things out early. I think that is what they said. I’ve posted it on whw several times but need to find exactly what they said.

          Reply

  72. Eric mentioned this stat on air:

    1,046 days…(and counting) since the last 6”+ snow event in Boston. ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

    Here we go again… 😉

    Reply

  73. While looking for GFS comments, I found this. I cannot recall where you are located now, WxWatcher. This area?

    HEADS UP!!! A LIFE-THREATENING, DESTRUCTIVE, Widespread Windstorm is expected Tue afternoon-Weds morning across much of Ventura/LA Co. Areas not typically windy will be impacted. See graphic for areas of greatest concern. Stay indoors, away from windows, expect poweroutages. #LA

    https://x.com/nwslosangeles/status/1876343016526598292?s=61

    Reply

  75. JJ posted earlier a link to a Mets X page with mention of similarities to the Dec 26, 2010 storm. IIRC, that was a consensus OTS situation until about 48 hrs out.

    Reply

    1. Not sure where they are getting that. I compared the GFS forecast upper air pattern for this coming weekend to what the upper pattern was like on 12/26/2010. Not really the same at all.

      Reply

  76. I keep hearing references to 2010 brought up, and the similarities.

    This is not the case. For one thing, they are comparing something that hasn’t formed yet and is a few days away from really getting formed to a well-documented event.

    If you look at the upper air pattern of the model that has the biggest hit for New England, and assume it’s correct, it’s quite different from the 12/26/2010 event. The orientation and magnitude of the upper air pattern between the 2 events are quite different, actually. So that’s not a good analog storm at all.

    Reply

    1. Even at the surface…

      2 1/2 days before the storm in 2010, high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley.

      2 1/2 days before the potential storm in 2025, low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley.

      These differences are not to be ignored.

      Reply

  77. No above normal temps at all anywhere in the country forecast by CPC for 8-14. Mostly below, small areas of near.

    Reply

  78. The progression of the surface low on the 18z GFS op run is comically odd. Let’s just jump a moderate strength low in NC/VA to a powerhouse low over southern NJ in just 6 hours, redeveloping north of itself. I’m gonna say no on that one…

    Reply

    1. Did you see my post above at 11:44am today? My ex’s father lives in Stokes/Lee Center where the 75” total was reported. I posted some pictures he sent from his house. Absolutely unreal. He has had some deep snowpacks there through the years but this is historic even for them.

      Reply

  86. According to Eric, we either get hit…or miss. There is no “in between” graze.

    I guess that means, ON TO THE 1/20 event!

    Reply

    1. Actually, a graze is completely on the table as a solution.

      I admire and respect Eric, but I couldn’t disagree with him more on that one if that’s indeed what he said. It is most definitely not one or the other with no chance of the mid point scenario. That’s actually impossible to discount this far in advance.

      And that doesn’t mean it’s onto the 20th event.

      That’s not how things work this far in advance…

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *