Wednesday January 8 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

The cold, mainly dry, windy weather will continue for a few more days thanks to the large low pressure circulation that has taken up residence, for now, in Atlantic Canada. This low also continues to prevent eastward-moving storms from making their way up the coast, and will do so again, sending another one out to our south early in the weekend, while we just get a touch of light snow from a disturbance to its north that it failed to phase with. Prior to that, I still eye the chance of a batch of snow showers that can coat the ground tomorrow in a few spots and a few flurries that may occur today. Behind the Saturday system, I expect fair weather again for Sunday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasional under 10.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers likely with minor spotty accumulation possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 26-33. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 14-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

A disturbance / weak low brings a snow shower chance about January 14, otherwise a dry and cold pattern much of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Mid period snow potential flanked by dry weather. Temperatures generally below normal.

102 thoughts on “Wednesday January 8 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. Putting out the trash and then the walk into school were really cold this morning.

    While I’m aware of wind chill, I was still stunned by the thermometer reading 22F at the bank near school. It felt like -22F !! 🙂

    Reply

  3. I have a good friend on the dart team which plays on Tuesday night’s.

    I walked in the house last night and my wife asked if my friend had talked with his brother in the last 2 hours.

    I said, “I’m not sure”. His brother lives in southern CA.

    His brother’s house was lost to one of those wild fires last night, thankfully he and his fiance are both fine.

    Reply

  4. Thanks, TK!

    Trash day in our neighborhood, too, Tom. The trash was still intact when I left for school. I went to the flannel and heavy winter coat this morning! 🙂

    Reply

  9. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namfntsfcwbg.gif

    1,009 mb low just south of the US/Mexico border and a large area of high pressure over Northern CA, NV into Colorado generally 1,036-1,040 mb with southern California in the squeeze play btwn the 2.

    Not familiar with the terrain out there, but I’m sure the canyons and the downslope off the mtns enhance the wind significantly.

    Reply

  11. With all the horrible fires out in CA, I was wondering. If it was summer now, would we be seeing or smelling smoke? I know the wind has been out of the northwest now so that could be keeping the smoke away.

    Feeling bad for all those in CA w/the fires.

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  12. Thanks, TK.

    Terrible situation in Southern California.

    Weather here is gray and relatively cold: 36F with spitting mix of light snow and rain.

    Reply

      1. I heard someone started the fire carelessly.

        Also, multimillion dollar homes just feet apart asks for trouble in a region prone to wind and long dry spells.

        Just facts. I do feel for the ppl impacted. I’m not cold and unfeeling, but there are potential disasters that can be lessened or even avoided.

        Reply

    1. Believe it or not, on the 00z GFS, the timings don’t quite match up, but this general time frame’s set-up leads to a decent snowfall.

      Reply

    2. “They” meaning the GFS that isn’t worth a bean beyond day 4?

      Knowing this model’s current shortcomings and biases, I’m actually kind of glad it’s arrived at this solution this many hours in advance…

      Put that thought on the back burner to revisit early next week….

      Reply

      1. I’ll never forget when someone told me that in regards to snow a week or more out, the GFS stands for “good for shit” lol

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        1. HAHAHA …

          One of the FakeMets posted on his FB page the other day…

          “GFS means Good For Snow” … and his readers literally bought it.

          Reply

  23. Well, meterologists around the world ….

    When you talk about warm, hot humid air coming from a certain body of water

    or a hurricane tracking across a certain body of water ….

    be ready.

    A certain someone is floating an idea of changing its name from the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

    LMAO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

    2. That’s not really a suppressed track, verbatim. The thing is, this is one run of an operational model for a system just under 2 weeks away. It’s the general pattern we need to be looking at, and January 20th presents a threat.

      Reply

  26. One of my work friends texted me asking “how slammed are we going to get with snow this weekend?” I said not slammed at all. I asked why they thought we’d get slammed and he showed me the opening page of his web browser: https://ibb.co/6BrRFsY

    Reply

    1. I really really REALLY REALLY R E A L L Y wish ALL these news outlets would ..for the love of humanity, STOP SHOWING THE DAMN COMPUTER GUIDANCE!

      These were never meant for the public. They are meant for METEOROLOGISTS! I’m really fed the heck up with this stuff! And by goodness gracious I’ve earned the right to RANT ABOUT IT!

      STOP
      SHOWING
      THE
      MODELS
      ON
      TV
      AND
      SOCIAL
      MEDIA

      PLEASE!!!!!

      Ok, rant done. 🙂 🙂

      Reply

        1. Thanks Dave 🙂

          I’m really not p.o.’ed, like I sound there, I was just being dramatic, but it is very disappointing to me that guidance is such an headlining site on our weathercasts, and this includes all our Boston weathercasts. And yes, from the horse’s mouth, it is the news directors that want this done. But them or the meteorologists … I still don’t agree with the practice. Nobody is going to convince me it helps the general viewer. It confuses them more than helps them, and I’ve heard from plenty of “general public” to know this is fact.

          Old school way: The meteorologist would look at the tools, make a forecast, and present it.

          It’s one thing to make mention of the tools to the viewer – to some of them it’s interesting, but don’t dwell on it, and don’t present 16 scenarios of how the next 3 threats over the next 15 days can go. Nobody really comes away with anything they can use.

          3 days or sooner: Snow amounts / exact track / impact.

          4 to 7 days: General ideas of potentials and possible impacts, but no numbers.

          Beyond 7 days: Hints of the pattern and what it can result in.

          That’s it. Simplicity is far greater a benefit, and the focus should really still be on today, tomorrow, and the next day, unless it’s something like a hurricane or extreme event that is moderate to high confidence – one we need more time to prepare for.

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          1. Also Dr. S, thank you for showing that so my often-made point can be proven yet again. If I had a dime for every query I got like the one you did ……………

            I’m still getting them today: “So, big blizzard this weekend? I saw them say that.” … My first question now is: “Who’s ‘them’?” And then I go from there…

            Reply

          2. It confuses the regular viewer – absolutely. But it also drives clicks. And clicks are king. They only care about the bottom line. Backlash be damned. “How can we sell this story” is basically the motto in newsrooms all around. The boston globe, for example, posts stuff with “interesting” titles on reddit, their social media person includes the first two paragraphs in a comment to tantalize people to click and get paywalled. It really is a predatory thing. Can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.

            Reply

  27. “This fire feels different.” … I saw that on X.
    The answer is: This one started just upwind of a densely populated area on what’s likely the windiest day of the winter after a lengthy dry spell. That’s the only explanation that actually is an adequate answer. There’s nothing else “different” to look for. That is THE answer.

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    1. Then you have all the jokers with their political comments and the drones etc. … they need to re-examine their priorities. There are major impacts to consider here – not a time for jokes about drones and political parties.

      Reply

      1. They need to reevaluate who they are as human beings. The social media folks who believe they have the answer make me sick. People are losing everything, lives are lost and at risk. Yet keyboard warriors feel the need to add to their pain. The politicians weighing in with lies are beyond reprehensible.

        Reply

  28. Kind of while I’m still thinking of the above subject … One of my coworkers today pointed out having seen Mike Wankum cautioning viewers about the outrageous snow amounts posted days in advance by non-mets on social media. I’m very pleased to know he’s joined folks like Jeremy, Pete, Eric, and others in the effort to bring attention to this problem. Kudos to Wankum (and the rest) and keep it up!

    Reply

      1. I think the thought process is don’t pay attention to them way in advance from unqualified sources.

        While I highly disagree with the practice of a local meteorologist posting them, it’s not up to me whether they do or not. I personally (as noted above) don’t think it’s helpful.

        But if they want to do it, it’s their call. Just be ready to field the questions and criticisms that may come with it. But again a lot of that is not driven by the met themselves, but the boss they work for. You know how it goes: “They’re doing it, so we have to do it, and do it better”. And news directors either don’t understand or don’t care that doing this may have a negative impact. They view it in terms of ratings, clicks, and shares.

        Reply

        1. You last paragraph is absolute fact. These guys get blamed for many issues that are out of their control. It’s why I react whenever they are faulted.

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          1. Most of the time I get flustered about local stuff it’s aimed at the news directors who can’t look at the whole picture – and I know that’s not going to change anytime soon, unfortunately.

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  29. While the rest of the world searches guidance for big snow, I’m now pulling it into the region in the short range, and focusing on tomorrow’s snow shower event that I have been forecasting for 3 days now. Still on as a distinct probability.

    My call at this point is episodic snow showers or even a band of more solid snow shower activity migrating south southwest into the region pre-dawn and hanging around into midday tomorrow.

    Accumulations of a dusting to 1/2 inch are POSSIBLE anywhere from about the I-495 belt eastward.

    Reminder: The word “possible” is not a synonym of “definite”. Spread the word (pun intended). 😉

    Reply

      1. Seems to be the NAMS AND

        the HRW FV3 and HRW WRF-ARW AND
        HRW WRF-NSSL

        And a bit from the EURO

        I guess that is enough. 🙂

        Reply

  30. Despite my cranky vibe, I’m happy. Just venting above. 🙂

    Off to check in with mom about her NP appointment today and then do the care-related stuff. 🙂

    Reply

  31. I posted this on the other post, but wanted to repost it here. I feel bad for California, this is not their fire season, but here we are. We went from one extreme last year to another extreme this year for that area. This is our changing climate along with other aspects but the underlying issue is anthropogenic climate change at play here. The planet wants to be balanced. We are going to continue to see more and more of this unfortunately. We need to adjust to this. Australia is starting now to get their own fire fighting air fleet. Alot of fire fighting materials like helicopters in the US are sent to Australia during winter as the fire seasons are typically the opposite. Fire season is on here in Australia, have two large fires in the grampians (which is more like the Australian bush people think about when talking about Australia) but now also Otaways national park which is temperate rainforest. I feel for the people in California, we are seeing more and more natural disasters and our natural disaster relief funds needs to be increased to support the people impacted by these events.

    Reply

    2. With all due respect, it is through the subjectivity of you and other people what “balance” is. The earth has been both warmer and colder in the past….continents have shifted, species have come and gone…this will continue into the future, with or without humans. I’m not sure there is any empirical evidence that events are more frequent or more severe than at any other point. There are more people, more structures to damage and more access to current events, but that in and of itself does not support the idea the climate is more severe. I recommend reading the Rational Optimist, which besides improving one’s outlook on the world i.e. there has never been a better time to be alive, it touches on the in vogue obsession of climate change. Whether you agree or not with the author’s view it is intellectually simulating

      Reply

      1. I have learned these days that ” with all due respect” is basically the finger. I have also pretty much given up talking trying to talk to anyone that thinks climate change is not real. Its not worth my time trying to hit a stone wall. I will make an exception here because I feel most on this blog are good people and willing to listen to the science. The debate of anthropogenic climate change is over, there is no debate on that anymore or at least there shouldn’t be. I have gotten to the point in which I have given up even trying to get it across peoples thick skulls. There is empirical facts and observations. I see the evidence, I have had access to alot of data in my young career that says climate change deniers are full of it this includes biological, chemical, geological, atmospheric. I am a marine and environmental scientist which means I look at the entire picture of the environment that I am working in. More experts support anthropogenic climate change than the big bang. Our activities are impacting our environment sure the planet always goes through ups and downs, but the rate of change is a problem and not natural. We are going through the beginnings of an extinction event and this is fact. Want me to show you the coral reefs? PS the majority of the FLorida reef track is technically functionally dead with less than 2% coral cover. No animal of the past has created this much change to our earth’s systems. There is no evidence showing that anthropogenic climate change is not real. It is happening, there are also other factors at play that are influencing the past handful of years like volcanic activity, shipping regulations, etc. That book has an author that is not an expert and has been proven wrong on many of his ” theories” by real experts not only on the climate front. Listen to the experts not the wannabees. Sorry if this comes across as harsh and this is nothing against you or anyone else on this blog but I am done dealing with fake takes that have no foundational facts. If people actually have real facts that are funded by good sources that are not bias come and talk to me. If not throw it in the trash.

        Reply

        2. Matt, Mac tested and logged air, soil, water throughout the US and in many areas throughout the wold for over 40 years. I understand that on the scheme of things that is a very short period. But every year the pollution increased …..every year. Climate is cyclical yes. But it is impossible to deny that man has influenced our climate.

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        3. We will have to agree to disagree. 99 percent of the book is about what separates humans from all other species and how specialization of task has led to our amazing progess as a species and led to a massive improvement in not only how long we live, but how well. His quam with climate change is their attack on energy. He asserts and I agree that abundance of energy and quality of life are directly related. More energy rquals better quality of life, more progress. He considers himself a preservstionist but argues that land use is less disturbed by the use of petrocarbons vs “green” alternatives….He is a tremendous fan of solar and at the time of his writing 2013 believed it would eventually become cost effective(and it has) as well as nuclear….attacking or attempting to discredit someone who doesn’t share your views is not constructive. I believe you have more in common than not. No one has a monopoly on good ideas, not even the “Experts”.

          Reply

          1. I gotta ask. I’m not sure what this means. Does he mean humans are superior to other species ?

            99 percent of the book is about what separates humans from all other species and how specialization of task has led to our amazing progess as a species and led to a massive improvement in not only how long we live, but how well.

            Reply

            1. Pretty much witch is kind of a dumb statement take it from someone who on top of having a MS in Marine and environmental science, a BS in Enviornmental sciences I also have a minor in environmental Anthropology and his works is something that comes up and pretty much always on how bad it is. We see how much so called human behavior/cultures also exists with other animials.

              Reply

  33. I have a little bit of concern for a sneaky slippery coating on some roads tomorrow morning and nobody is really talking about it.

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  37. Here’s your fire recipe.

    First, a myth busting. Santa Ana winds are not exclusive to autumn. They are most common in autumn, but they can occur ANY day of the year. That is a meteorological fact. So if you read that Santa Ana at this time of year has never occurred before, that’s 100% false.

    This particular Santa Ana episode is a product of a hemispheric pattern which features stability. In other words, where it is, it stays for a while. This is part of the same pattern that has us persistently cold. Out there, they have high pressure over Nevada / low pressure in northwestern Mexico. The magnitude of each is such that the pressure gradient is particularly strong, and the placement of the tightest gradient is taking the strongest wind from the DRY Mohave Desert and moving it over the mountains, where it then down-slopes toward LA and surrounding areas and drys out even more, at the same time it funnels through the canyons. Since air cannot flow THROUGH a mountain, it is squeezed between the passes. You’ve witnessed this many times when you see water move more quickly through a narrowed area. The same happens with air (aka moving air aka wind).

    Now let’s add the drought-breaking rainfall the area had during the last couple years. What happens when you return moisture to the ground? You grow plentiful vegetation. After that, a dry spell took place – not uncommon to the region. This dried out the vegetation, providing fuel for these fires, started likely carelessly by people (it wasn’t natural causes, let me put it that way).

    There you have a perfect storm so to speak, and the result is what we are seeing now.

    Santa Ana wind-driven wildfires are certainly nothing new, observed as long as we’ve been around. Property damage is more widespread and frequent these days due to population growth and construction clustering. In this, we are our own worst enemy in helping to start the fires in a place we’ve packed flammable materials.

    Are these the strongest Santa Ana winds observed? Absolutely not. In the absence of widespread instrumentation, earlier episodes were not thoroughly recorded, and it’s very likely that some of the strongest events were “unrecorded”. The strongest recorded Santa Ana wind event was in December of 2011, when sustained winds of 95 to 100 MPH with gusts of 155 to 170 MPH were recorded at Pasadena and Altadena in the San Gabriel Valley.

    We have to keep in mind that observing these events is better in modern times than in the past, because of better instrumentation and more widespread measurements. The same reason we now see more cold season tornadoes (because we have better tools for detection).

    THANKFULLY, the worst of the wind is over, and while it stays windy in the region through tomorrow, it shuts down by Friday. Then the long recovery process will get underway.

    Thoughts with those impacted.

    Reply

      1. And thanks Dr. S for posting your friend’s web browser above. FOR SHAME on NBC-10!!!

        TK – Who is the chief met now since Matt Noyes left? I hope it’s not Pete.

        Reply

  38. TK – Now that social media platforms Meta, X, FB, Instagram etc. no longer have fact-checking, will the fake mets and snow weenies have more power than ever? The only social media I use is WHW so I really don’t know how they work exactly.

    Reply

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