DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
The wind and cold ease up today as high pressure moves over the region with fair weather and plenty of sun. A deepening low pressure area will pass off the Mid Atlantic Coast and move well south of New England Saturday, while a weaker system to the north, in the form of upper level low pressure with a weak surface low, will bring our region a period of light snowfall. As this system starts to move offshore late in the day and evening, a narrow lobe of moisture in the form of moderate snow showers can pivot southward and clip the NH Seacoast, far eastern MA, and Cape Cod, with an additional small snowfall accumulation over a shorter period of time, so keep this in mind if you have late day or evening plans that include travel. High pressure to the southwest noses its way into the region with fair, seasonably chilly weather and a breeze – but not too windy – Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, a low pressure system from Canada will pass to our north and send a trough and cold front into the region with a snow shower chance, also introducing a surge of colder air with more wind.
TODAY: Sunshine – some high clouds show up during the afternoon hours. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow morning-midday, accumulating 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch. Highs 25-32. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with additional snow showers favoring eastern coastal areas with an additional 1/2 inch to 1 inch possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 14-21. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mosttly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 16-24. Highs 29-36. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
A stretch of mainly dry weather – maybe a few snow showers from a passing disturbance mid period. Temperatures generally below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
An early period snow/mix threat and another possible late in the period with indications of a more active pattern and continued below normal temperatures. A significant shot of Arctic air is possible mid period.
Thanks, TK!
23 degrees and much less wind for the AM commute.
24 at midnighr here and 25 this morning.
Good morning and thank you TK.
I was wondering if you were going to mention that additional lobe of moisture. I really noticed that on the RDPS model,although it kept most of it just off shore. Will be watching.
Features like that are tricky … they can be good for a few flakes, a few inches, or most likely something in between. 🙂 … Or it could end up entirely offshore. Just have to watch it.
Indeed. Many thanks.
Of course since we have cold air in place (snow event) the LAST scenario is most likely. If temperatures were in the 40s Saturday would be washed out easily. 😉
Thanks TK
Thank you, TK.
It’s starting to snow in Nashville.
Here’s the scene at all of the honky tonks on Lower Broadway:
https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/tennessee/broadway-nashville.html
They’re expecting 3-7 with heavy snow this afternoon.
Thank you TK!
Happy Friday!
AI Weather Model: Pangu
I think Pangu-Weather is the first publicly available AI weather model and is brought to you by our old friend, the ECMWF. The Euro is working with a suite of these models.
The link below will take you to Pangu’s temperature forecast (in centigrade) for the period 1/10-1/20. Three things: 1) select North America on the left side. 2) Click on the middle icon (3 dashes) on the lower right to get the legend. 3) Hit the play button. A little rudimentary at this point but here you go.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/pangu_medium-t-z?base_time=202501100000&level=1000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501100000
Interesting, thank you.
12Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow for tomorrow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=37&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Regular NAM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The NWS doesn’t expect much tomorrow
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg
This model is really the only one I am seeing this on, but
it looks like there “may” be some Ocean Effect Snow.
Look at the conversion near the coast
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=sfct_b-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=29&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks, TK.
Vicki, just read your comment to me from yesterday. The holidays weren’t that great for us as my husband and me have had many medical issues, going all the way back to May. And we still are awaiting more stuff. We tried to make the best of Christmas with music, a dinner with friends. Marc is waiting for cataract surgery and a surgery in his lower back. I am waiting for kidney stone surgery. Long story about that situation. In any case, hope you and your family are well. I would rather have snow than these freezing and windy weather conditions.
Rainshine, I am very sorry that your health issues continue. I’ll email today to chat if that is all right. Hugs to you both
Thank you. Would love to hear about your Christmas, too. Still can’t make a heart on this computer(still using old desktop) . So sending love you you!
Sending love right back
I found this interesting from Eric Fisher from yesterday which I forgot to post.
“Today is the 4th day in row that the CPC’s 8-14 day temperature outlook has no orange areas in the Contiguous U.S. The average number of days this occurs in an entire year is 3.”
Hahaha. You beat me to it. I was about to share. Thank you JummyJames.
Thanks TK !
Today is the 2nd Friday in January aka “National Quitting Day”! 🙂
Today is the day that many folks end their New Years resolutions. Oh well.
There seems to be a special day for everything these days. 😉
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850hvv&rh=2025011012&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Here’s a signal for some lift in NE Mass and SW coastal NH for the middle of the day tomorrow, which as TK indicates, could then rotate southward along the immediate coast later in the day.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850hvv&rh=2025011012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
6 hrs later, at 8pm simulation
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Radar simulation at 8pm
I heard somewhere that many southern cities could easily surpass Boston for snowfall to date.
Our climate just doesn’t make sense anymore.
While southern states have had snow in the past, we are seeing weather changes far more frequently ….and will continue to
Actually this has happened. It’s just not frequent.
Northern areas will finish with more snow. Far more.
Thanks, TK!
A private drone collided with one of the two Canadian super scoopers …grounding it. I’ve read various fines. One was $75,000. IMO it should be many times that. And possibly jail or major community service
https://www.businessinsider.com/la-fires-firefighting-plane-grounded-after-hit-drone-super-scooper-2025-1
And on a positive side… there are so many stories of neighbor helping neighbor
One is of Dick van Dyke being carried from his home
https://www.themirror.com/entertainment/celebrity-news/dick-van-dyke-wildfire-rescue-899723
The upside of drones are many. The downside are many. Agree reckless operation of a drone should be met with HARSH penalties.
I agree.
They have the owner I believe. He is suspected of being the photographer who had been sharing aerial photos. Just suspected for now.
Rainshine .. it’s always great to see you post here. I’m sorry to hear of the medical issues. I am hoping for nothing but the best!
Thank you! And I know a lot of people have/had health issues here, too. I wish them the best, too.
Think of you and Marc Rainshine. Hope you both feel better soon
12Z GFS is trying for the 20th. Getting there.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=231&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Rainshine, I am hoping for the best for you and your husband.
We had our own “adventure” yesterday.
My alarm usually goes off during the week at 6:40am.
Never got that to that alarm because my wife woke me up about 6:20am. I have chest pain, I think I should go to the ER.
Long story short, a good EKG, good bloodwork and a good xray later determined no cardiac event.
They think she overdid an upper body workout on Wednesday but we wanted to make sure it was just that.
Sent her home with pain meds for muscle inflamation and of course to return if improvement isn’t seen over a couple days.
Total time 6 hrs which felt like in and out for the ER experience.
Make sure that your wife takes it easy for awhile. Glad that everything went well! 🙂
Also, a good move going right away to the ER!
Thanks Philip !
I had a similar ER trip a couple months ago. Cardiologist said it was probably just a “musculoskeletal” pain or something of that nature. He also said that since it was a pain and I wasn’t experiencing any heaviness or shortness of breath and the bloodwork came back fine – that should give me all the assurance that it’s not heart related.
It’s easy to go a bit too hard when working out!
Thanks Dr S. Sounds very similar !!
I am glad you are ok too !!
Very happy you are ok also.
How scary Tom. I am so glad the tests showed no cardiac event. You were very wise to go to ER.
Glad she was ok. Scary to say the least.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Definitely multi model support for that second snow shower burst along the coast tomorrow late afternoon thru early evening.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Euro has it also, with a slightly quicker rotation down that coast, so that by 00z, its already over Cape Cod and has ended at the Cape Cod bridges.
well 🙂 🙂 :), maybe more like ended a few miles north of the bridges.
Snowfall forecasts from around the dial:
https://ibb.co/9bppPvC
Maybe locally 3+ somewhere far east. Watching this…
Philip… regarding above.
This pattern of cold and dry north and snow south is not really anything surprising. Happened many times, but it’s more frequent during negative AMO.
This particular pattern was foreseen by me and others and talked about here well in advance. 🙂
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G18§or=psw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Remember last year when storms went south of us, but we always needed strong dynamics because it was 38F in Quebec City …… little different this go around.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK.
I am seeing reports of 1-3″ across Atlanta Metro and 4″ in the northern suburbs. Definitely did not underproduce there. I believe I saw somewhere that this is the first time since 2018 that Atlanta has had measurable snow.
At least it has been snowing up north. Another 6″ overnight in Bretton Woods, NH. This from a poster on the AmericanWx forum…
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_01/IMG_7640.jpeg.63286ba5cab1d1d8e30b4415a2384107.jpeg
And check these shots out from yesterday from an employee of Stowe who posts on the American Weather forum…
From a friend at about 3,000ft today between Stowe and Smuggs on the Snuffies/Sterling Pond trail.
6-8 foot drifts filling the trail between the trees after 3 days of 50-80mph winds.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_01/IMG_2168.jpeg.8f53ae4dcbfe5d3ec28634c9f0bc1f93.jpeg
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_01/IMG_2169.jpeg.43a8f180ece144f5de2aab6cec300813.jpeg
Not sure how you hike through that, lol.
Stunning photos but hiking? Maybe a foot an hour
Snow in north central SC. A friend said May be icing after the snow.
Wishing all well with their medical situations.
Hey, it’s 41 here and it feels like a HEAT WAVE!!! 🙂
Made it to 40F today.
Here is a link to CalFire and a cool map
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents.html#