Monday January 13 2025 Forecast (7:20AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

A wave of low pressure tracks north of our region today, and its warm front moves through early this morning, setting up a mild day in comparison to recent weather. A cold front drops southeastward through the region this evening and may kick off a rain or snow shower as it passes. Slightly colder air filters in behind this for Tuesday, with one more disturbance going by and a secondary trough with a wind shift and even a little colder air moving into the region for Wednesday, but with fair weather that day. Another disturbance traverses the Northeast in a westerly flow and may bring a snow shower on Thursday before a small area of high pressure noses in on Friday with fair weather.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible in the evening. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Changes to the weather pattern get underway, starting with a milder southerly flow for a brief time and a chance of rain at some point on the January 18-19 weekend, then a wind shift with a front going by and colder air moving in. After this we have to watch for waves of low pressure and wintry precipitation chances, the timing and details of which are obviously unknown this far in advance. So, a lot of forecast fine-tuning lies ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Leaning to the cold side for temperatures and at least one wintry weather threat.

69 thoughts on “Monday January 13 2025 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK
    Are our chances for snow coming up beginning to wane? Sure looks that way to me.

    I guess we’ll find out.

    1. If you look at run-to-run deterministic models, you may think so.

      If you study the pattern and ignore the run to run solutions, no.

              1. Actually it will be cold enough on the 19th, and it’s about the timing of the moisture, not the phone app temperatures. 🙂

                2. I did not go by an app . I heard it advertised as rain for Sunday by a Couple of different tv Mets

  7. Good morning and thanks TK.

    Thinking about the people of LA. It was always one of those things that they warned could happen, it’s just crazy that it’s happening outside of what is considered to be wildfire season and winds still ramping up.

    2. I saw a report of winds 50-75 mph the next few days.
      That is NOT good. I just hope that portions of the fires
      that are “out” do not re-ignite with those winds.

  8. Last I heard the death toll is 24 lives lost. There are probably many more bodies to be found, unfortunately.

  10. SSK … I’m at reply limit above..

    Out of curiosity which TV mets?

    There is a rain chance late Saturday and/or early Sunday as described in my discussion above, which I write carefully every day.

    Cold air follows. What remains to figure out is additional waves of low pressure, track and timing, but we enter a vastly improved pattern for widespread winter weather events starting January 19.

    This does not mean I am calling for snow to begin at 1201 a m on January 19, so make sure what I write stays in context.

      3. Josh has me chuckling. He is required to put the 7 day out by management But he is wise enough to not give the weekend any validation by mentioning it. Longshot, your question mark was wisely placed. We know better than to consider anything as a given that far out. Certainly not enough to challenge TKs forecast.

          1. Whdh management has insisted for years that its Mets get the 7 day out before other networks. I feel for these guys.

    3. Honestly I do not remember it wasn’t ch 5 . I just canceled my Xfinity cable ( finally ) and watching you tube . I’ve seen some different news stations that I have not seen before and that’s why I’m not sure which one exactly. Sorry for the late reply as I’ve been tremendously busy . I just remembered seeing colder midweek & Warmer by the weekend with rain on Sunday & maybe flakes ( Monday ) but no significant storms in site . I wish I could remember which channel it was ( two tv Mets )

      1. Thank you. And happy Hen Galan to you. As with santa Lucia day being the longest night on Dec 13 based on the Julian calendar, today would be New Year’s Eve.

  13. For the last few winters, and even early on in this winter, the MJO has had a habit of dipping to “irrelevant” when it would normally pass through snow phases 7, 8, 1, and popping its head back up to noticeable in phases 3, 4, and 5.

    Well, now it looks like the opposite may start to happen.

    This is a positive sign if you like white frozen stuff falling from the sky more frequently. 🙂

    1. Thank you, JimmyJames. I was 15 but don’t remember that one specifically. My guess is if it was a school day my brother and I were hanging out the window to see if we could hear the no school horn from the fire dept in Belmont center

      1. Vicki: January 13-14 1964 was a Monday-Tuesday combo so they were definitely “school” days. Hopefully you and your brother got 2 nice snow days off, depending on timing, of course. ❄️ 🙂

  16. Per Channel 5 Weather Center…

    Light rain or mix Saturday.
    Snow potential Sunday night into Monday.

    This jives with my outlook.

  17. First signs that Thursday’s disturbance may be rather aggressive and carry a chance of some snow squalls. More on that later…

  18. I hope the snow window stays open for a couple weeks and the snow totals by the end of winter will be decent. Only 4.9 inches so far at BDL. 0.1 inch this month so far when the normal snow for January is 14.1 inches.

    1. I think the window opens this weekend and stays relatively open for a while (2 or 3 weeks), followed by a quieter interlude, followed by another active spell.

  19. 12z GFS, 18z GFS, 12z Euro, 12z UKMET, and 12z GGEM all deliver accumulating snow to SNE early next week.

    1. 18z GFS for MLK Day:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011318&fh=153&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12z UKMET for MLK Day:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011312&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global

      12z Euro is a bit weaker:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025011312&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12z GGEM has snowshowers on MLK day but likes a larger event for a few days later on 1/22:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025011312&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      1. So certainly not a blockbuster but we have a decent shot at a moderate regionwide accumulating snow event.

      2. Verbatim….GGEM would be a significant 6-10″ event Pike south, GFS would be good for 4-7″, and Euro would bring an inch or two. UKMET looks moderate to low end significant snow but the run doesnt go far enough out to be able to verify.

        Of course who would ever look at deterministic model run snowmaps at 7 days out, lol…..

    1. Thanks Jimmy! I have no memory whatsoever of that 1964 blizzard but this time I have a good excuse as I was barely 3 years old at the time.

      Total Boston snowfall 1963-64 = 63.0” ❄️

      1. He works for the Mount Washington Resort and lives at 1560’ elevation so he is likely down somewhere off of Rte 302 near the hotel/base lodge area.

    2. 0z Icon is a weaker 2-4” type snow event for 1/20..

      0z GFS meanwhile loses the storm but delivers a couple more “soueasters” to Georgia and the Carolinas, lol.

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