Wednesday January 15 2025 Forecast (7:12AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Northwesterly flow continues to deliver cold air for a couple more days. Today’s weather will be dry and breezy with plenty of sunshine – and you’ll start to notice it staying lighter a little later – into the 5:00 p.m. hour now. Thursday, a disturbance approaches with an increase in clouds and this system may bring a period of light snow and perhaps a few heavier snow showers as it passes through the region in the evening. Behind it though, instead of a push of colder air, temperatures will moderate as winds shift to west and lighten up on Friday, in response to a larger high pressure area to our southwest. The high slides off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This sets up a weekend weather transition in which we see a mainly cloudy, milder Saturday, with late-day and nighttime rain, which may mix with or change to snow before ending to the west, followed by a push of colder air and a drier interlude for much of Sunday. However, another wave of low pressure will rapidly approach from the southwest, and with cold air in place, the chance of snow increases as early as Sunday evening. I’ll watch that for timing/track.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with snow or snow showers – under 1 inch of accumulation. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain evening, ending overnight, possibly mixed with snow west of I-495. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Limited sun. Potential snow by evening. Temperatures steady in 30s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Snow chance early January 20. Snow chance again at the end of the period. Between these come a significant shot of cold air with dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Cold eases slightly but overall temperatures stay mostly below normal. Another snow or snow shower chance comes around mid period.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday January 15 2025 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I have noticed a difference in the afternoon and within a week, we also begin making progress in the morning, which will be helpful. I get going a lot easier in the light vs the dark.

    Reply

  3. Thanks, TK!

    I believe we are into the second half of Meteorological Winter starting today! We are also picking up earlier sunrises a little faster now day-by-day.

    20 the low this morning in the Silver City!

    Reply

    1. And were not far from the second half of the school year 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Day 83 in Marshfield.

      I don’t keep track, our attendance software does, so the teachers see the number everyday 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

      1. 99 more teaching days left in my career (not that I am counting or anything!)

        I sound like a senior. Wait, I AM a senior! And I don’t mean the Class of 2025! 🙂

        Reply

  4. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_024h-prob01&rh=2025011500&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_024h-prob04&rh=2025011500&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011500&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The first 2 links are the GEFS 00z ensembles. Of those, the 1st is the prob >1 inch of snow and the 2nd link is the prob > 4 inches of snow.

    The 3rd link is the 00z GFS op run and the closest pass of said system.

    I think we can deduce from the ensemble percentages that many individual ensemble members must be a lot further northwest with the wave of low pressure compared to the op run.

    Reply

  6. Thank you TK.

    Watched 3 TV mets this AM in regard to Sun-Mon.
    Met 1: Boston in the bull’s eye.
    Met 2: Tracks to the SE and we might get light slow or just flurries at most.
    Met 3: Undecided.

    Reply

      1. ha ha ha ha By then doesn’t do us much good, does it.
        Models representing the past can be PERFECT!
        Models representing the future, well, NOT so much.

        Reply

          1. neither one of those delivers much if any snow on the ground, assuming events unfold as depicted.

            Perhaps this could be a little bit of a surprise, but apparently not to TK. 🙂

            Reply

  13. From our pal Bernie:

    Bernie Rayno
    @AccuRayno
    (2) Right snow looks like a 1-3″ from I-81 in VA northward into eastern New England (includes, DCA, PHL, NYC and BOS). A narrow 3-6″ from central and eastern LI to Cape Cod (as islands). Injection of arctic air in place means potential is there for much more if ENERGY is stronger

    Reply

    1. Disappointing development. Hopefully the follow-up system delivers. Only consistent part of the winter so far is, “the next system will deliver…”

      Reply

  20. Dave, have you been watching the run to run differences in the GFS with how it is handling the two storms next week? The wild differences every 6 hours from one run to the next are laughable. I am basically ignoring it at this point. At least with the fake threat last week, it showed a phased solution/hit consistently for several runs in a row before slowly backing off.

    Reply

  22. Meanwhile….ANOTHER 6″ of snow last night at Sugarbush VT. 13″ in the last 48 hours and four feet of new snow since New Years. They are at 135″ on the season and 100% open.

    It has been the month of the upslope….

    Reply

    1. Jay Peak reporting 20″ of new natural snow in the past 48 hours and 3 feet of snow within the past 7 days. 195″ now on the season.

      Reply

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