Thursday January 16 2025 Forecast (7:30AM)

147 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

We remain in a cold pattern overall, but a brief warm-up is coming, and it’s part of a pattern change that introduces more snow chances ahead, but first, a weak disturbance coming along from the west today will send clouds into the region and a period of snow showers this evening / tonight. Only a dusting / coating of snow is possible but up to an inch can fall on the islands just south of Cape Cod, as they will be closer to what becomes a developing low pressure area before it moves away overnight. Weak high pressure noses in on Friday from the southwest with fair and pleasant mid winter weather. High pressure then slides off the Atlantic Coast and a trough and cold front approach from the west Saturday, which will be a milder day. Enough mild air comes in so this front will be a rain producer for several hours Saturday evening – maybe enough to wash residual salt / road treatment off surfaces not too long before we’ll need them again. This will become the case as after the front moves through, cold air returns, then a wave of low pressure brings a period of accumulating snow Sunday night into early Monday. Later Monday, the coldest air mass of the season so far will be knocking on the door and not waiting for us to open it before barging in.

TODAY: Increasing clouds – fading sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow showers with dustings / coatings for accumulation, except up to 1 inch Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Decreasing clouds – sun returns. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy black ice possible overnight. Lows 23-30 in the evening, rising back into the 30s overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sun early, then cloudy. Highs 37-44 in the morning, then falling slowly through 30s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow with up to a few to several inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with snow early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 by midday, then quick-falling temperatures later in the day. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Dry and very cold through the middle of next week followed by a chance of snow late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern.

147 thoughts on “Thursday January 16 2025 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  4. #’s for Sunday night on tomorrow’s post. But we’ll have to move it when it falls, unless you want it to just sit there. 😉

  5. I was curious about “a few to several inches” so I asked Google Gemini….

    “A few to several inches” of snow is a fairly vague term, but generally it suggests a range of:

    A few inches: This usually implies 1-3 inches of snow.
    Several inches: This typically means 3-6 inches of snow or more.
    Keep in mind:

    Vague terms are common in weather forecasts: Meteorologists often use terms like “a few” and “several” because it’s difficult to give precise predictions for snowfall amounts.  
    Local variations: Snowfall can vary significantly within a short distance due to factors like local geography and microclimates.  
    For the most accurate information:

    Check local weather alerts: Pay attention to warnings and advisories issued by your local National Weather Service office.
    Monitor local news: Stay updated on the latest weather forecasts from local news sources.
    I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any other questions.

    Sources and related content

    1. Good stuff Dave . If I may add when the word significant is used in snow like it’s going to be a significant amount of snow or it will not be a significant amount of snow the definition of that is significant snowfall is a large amount of snow that falls in a specific area in a certain amount of time . It can also refer to heavy snow ,which is when a large amount of snow falls in a short period of time .

        1. There abouts. I don’t really consider 6 inches as significant, but then the bar is high for me. 🙂 Also, it depends on ratio.
          6 inches of cement is more significant than 12 inches of fluff. To me anyway, for what it is worth. 🙂

            1. Aside from the shoveling aspect, I rather like the high water content snow better than the fluff stuff.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Several of the 0z models and now 6z GFS (see my post at the end of the last blog) have trended back NW and stronger with the Sunday night system and are indicating the potential for a moderate snowstorm. Will be interested to see the 12z suite today and if this is a trend or just a hiccup.

    1. Indeed they are.
      Right now, I think our chances of a “moderate” snow event
      are pretty decent. Details will be unfolding…

  10. Let’s keep in mind the specifics, and the ranges of impacts…

    Example:

    Scenario #1… 8 inches of snow fall in 24 hours at a steady rate in temps of 32-36F with virtually no accumulation on roads. Impact is minimal. Significant snow in terms of amount, but not a significant storm in terms of road impact.

    Scenario #2… Intense snow squall drops 1/4 inch of snow in 5 min on untreated roads that the pavement was marginal, so you have brief melt, while a temp dropping into 20s quickly turns the layer of snow on damp pavement into a sheet of ice. Not a significant snowstorm, but a very significant event.

    There’s too much hyperfocus on final snow totals, not in-storm and post-storm conditions. That has to change.

    1. You are oh so correct!!

      We have to be careful how we label events and honestly I don’t think anyone has come up with the perfect terms just yet. And everyone will have a different opinion as to which events got into which bracket. A real NO WIN situation.

    2. Excellent comment.

      I am not a big fan of using labels rather than number ranges because of your exact explanation.

      FWIW. Not related to snow but simply related to meaning.

      A couple is two
      A few is two to five or twenty depending on the use.

  13. This Sunday night “may” just end up a little more JUICY
    than we have been discussing.

    GFS about to roll in a about 15 minutes.

  15. Snow enthusiasts should not be stock market investors. The daily up and downs would stress one beyond reason. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. At least on pivotal weather, someone is hand drawing each 3 hr panel as its taken forever to go from 60 to 63 hrs. By the way at hr 63, its already developing precip over the appalachians, far west of its previous runs.

  19. NWS discussion re: Sunday night

    The main forecast challenge will revolve around an anafrontal wave
    of low pressure that will develop in the cold front. This will
    likely bring a period of snow or rain changing to snow late Sun into
    early Mon. There is still considerable spread on how close this wave
    of low pressure tracks in the vicinity of southern New England. The
    CMC model seems to be a west outlier…while the ECMWF is more of an
    east outlier. That being said…most of the 00z guidance suite
    indicates at least a period of snow or rain changing to snow over
    this time period for a good portion of the region. While this does
    not look like a major storm…accumulating snow is certainly
    possible for some locations.

  20. FYI: Ana-frontal waves are poorly handled by global guidance beyond day 4. After that, better.

    The Sunday-Monday event is an ana-frontal wave.

      1. I ‘ll admit, I had to look it up.

        An ana cold front is a cold front where there is lift that generates precip along the front and the precip can be largely located behind the front because the cool air behind the front is moving in at lower levels (colder air is more dense), but not too far north and west of the front, there is still milder air advecting over the cooler air and it produces overrunning precip.

          1. Its complicated for all, even the Mets who have earned a degree, which is quite an accomplishment with all the physics and calculus requirements.

            I was able to derive and rework formulas in thermodynamics and passed it.

            But, in atmospheric motion class, I reached my ability limit with those formula derivations.

  23. If the GFS timing is correct, the snow falls at night (so with cold enough or cooling temps in far SE Mass, wont lose any accumulation to daytime solar brightness) and it ends fairly early Monday, so they can clean up and we don’t lose any school days.

    Perfect !!!!!

    Then its going to be very cold to frigid Tuesday as we’ll maximize the delivery of the airmass due to a snow cover.

    1. I wonder if we warm up all that much following the next cold outbreak, if temps ever really get that much above 32F. It may be awhile before we see 40 anytime soon.

  25. There’s a nasty stomach bug going around that I caught earlier in the week, which is why I haven’t been around much these past few days. I haven’t looked at today’s models yet, but will shortly as I write my weekend outlook blog this afternoon, but wanted to throw in my comments on the “significant” debate going on earlier. From dealing with DPWs, School Depts, Landscapers, etc for the past 25+ years, when a storm is coming, here are what they are most concerned about:

    When will the snow start?
    When will it end?
    When will it be the heaviest?
    Will it mix/change over and when?
    What will temperatures be during the storm?
    What will temperatures be after the storm?
    What are the pavement temperatures?
    How much accumulation can we expect?

    Note that the amount is the least important thing.

    In the same vein – we had a massive blizzard around here on January 22, 2005. That was in the final days where I was working for the same company where TK and I worked together. We provided forecasts for Logan Airport. Before the snow start, I took a call from Logan and the guy says “I’m hearing all sorts of accumulation numbers – 1-2 feet, 1-3 feet, 15-25 inches, 12-24 inches, 15-30 inches, what’s the real story?” So I asked him if the amount of snow changed the way they ran their operations and he said “No. If we’re going to get more than a foot, we’re going to be out here non-stop until its over and the runways are clear”, so I replied “You’re getting more than a foot”. He said “That’s all I need to hear, thanks!” and hung up.

      1. Not yet. Was fine going back to work yesterday, but had to stop on the drive home this morning and take a quick nap in the rest area on 128, then slept until Noon today. This bug really drains you.

    2. Hope you’re feeling better . I work at a Hospital & there is a very lot going around , and yes Covid as well .

  26. JP Daaaaaave & Tom, not sure if y’all saw the 06z ECMWF, but its simulation dilevers a 3-6 inch snowfall to the entire region on Sunday night.

    1. I didn’t, thanks TK !

      I don’t pay for Pivotal maps, so for the Euro, I have access to the 00z and 12z info.

      So, I appreciate you sharing the 06z run’s take.

      1. I did not see it , is it now going more towards you vs here ? I did not know you were sick , feel better.

        1. I think Vicki may have been confusing me with someone else. I did have a cold last week but dont think I mentioned it on here.

          Right now looks like a region wide moderate snowstorm. The Canadian does have a closer track with some rain getting involved in area but model consensus is an all snow event in most places right now.

        1. And that is my bad. I thought you had mentioned being in the ER at the end of yesterday’s post. It was Matt replying to you.

          Matt, I hope you are feeling better also.

  28. There’s definitely “stuff” going around since Christmas (cold, flu, Covid-19 etc.). I had a very stubborn head cold since the holidays. There was no fever thankfully but I was sneezing like crazy and blowing my nose constantly. I believe I have finally gotten over it. I was still sneezing and blowing up until a couple days ago.

    1. Frankly I had no idea others here at WHW had been sick. Get well soon for those who are still “under the weather” so to speak. 🙂

    2. That would certainly coincide to the date of the 1/29/22 blizzard when Boston received their last 24-inch event. ❄️

      Of course, watch it disappear on the next run! 😉

      1. That system won’t “disappear” as it is one of the potentials in the pipeline. What will shift around is how it appears on all the various guidance, but it will most likely stay most consistent (compared to other guidance) on the ECMWF. That doesn’t necessarily mean the current projection is the correct one, but it also doesn’t mean that it isn’t either. 🙂

  31. Kind of surprised no fcst discussion update from Boston since 6:30 a.m. … must be short-staffed today, or a comm problem perhaps. I’m sure an update will come soon.

    Just a few thoughts, and not much has changed at all…

    Minor event tonight delivers flakes, traces for most, coatings for many, up to 1/2 inch South Coast, up to 1 inch Islands.

    Minor rain event late Saturday.

    The Sunday night / early Monday thing is still on as expected. May start as rain from Boston Metro southward, but quickly the cold air becomes established and we end up snow everywhere, a light to moderate event. My early ballpark idea for Sunday night / early Monday is between 2 and 6 inches across the region. This is a wider 4-inch range, to be refined starting with tomorrow morning’s update.

    The pattern interests me for further snow / winter weather threats for the balance of January and probably beyond…

    Certainly no lasting warm-ups in sight.

      1. The NAM is useless outside 48 hours on a system like this. And the 12km NAM especially will under-generate precipitation.

        I’ll pay attention to that model more starting in about 24 hours.

  32. The models don’t dictate the sensible weather – they simulate it.

    But they have their shortcomings, so we don’t need to have 100% of the available guidance on board for a system that’s still just over 3 days away to have it occur. I’m more in tune with the weather pattern creating the event than the details of each simulation. Some of those are still going to be pretty rough.

    1. I expect some brief rain at the onset southeastern areas, but the cold coming in is pretty aggressive and any residual mild air won’t be around long. This will be primarily a snow event.

      1. That will probably mean solid ice underneath whatever snow we get. Glad I no longer have to shovel. That will be my senior living facility’s problem now. 🙂

      2. So let me ask you this . Could we have a situation down this way where we were supposed to get snow ( like the pre Christmas Friday storm ) and it was all rain down this way ( some flakes in the air from time to time . Say the warm air holds on longer down here it would be primarily rain , some minor snow maybe at the end . Of course this is just a question only .

        1. Exceedingly unlikely. It’s actually easier to snow coming out of mild into cold in this set-up. Most of the air that will be “too warm for snow” will be in place BEFORE the onset of the precipitation shield, and the majority of the precipitation will fall after much deeper cold has arrived.

          This is not the pre-Christmas set-up, and we’re also dealing with a wind direction that is NORTH, not east. So nope, not this time!

          1. Thanks , and if I’m looking at everything correctly down this way as of now could be the jackpot area ??? Thank you

            1. I’m not sure what you are looking at, specifically, but I’ll have my #’s out on tomorrow morning’s update. I need to review some additional info before I figure out if there’s a “jackpot” area or it’s just a general range across the entire area.

              Were you looking at models or TV weathercasts? I haven’t actually see any of the latter today.

  38. I am liking the 18z runs minus the NAM for my area for the second decent snowfall of the season. The fist happened 12/5 with 4.5 inches of snow. I barely got an inch with the 12/20 snow.

    1. Now that the energy is over the continent we’re getting better sampling. The GFS & its ensembles, as much as I trash them, are not that bad once we get to the equal to or less than 4 days out point.

  42. 18z ECMWF indicates a widespread light to moderate snowfall of 2 to 5 inches, with its idea of the highest amounts being over Plymouth County.

      2. Let’s hope . Last time I heard highest amount over Plymouth county we had all rain ( that was Friday before Xmas ) but you can see above I asked Tk that .

        1. You’re not going to have all rain this time…..

          As I said before, that was December (warmer atmosphere), east wind (warmer ocean), different synoptic set-up.

          The “mild” this time is being chased away and just around long enough for brief rain at the start, which will actually screw the area over given how cold it’s going to get. Anything wet is going to solid ice underneath snow.

  44. Some unmanned space x ship broke apart/disintegrated in the atmosphere and the debris field in the evening sky down in the Caribbean was wild with the debris. It looked like the Columbia disaster. Seeing many posts online. Eric F has a few.

  46. It has been 914 days since I have moved here. Will I finally experience my first winter storm watch here on the South Coast?

    1. Pete has an awesome video on FB. I am not sure how to share here; and if folks do not use FB, it would not work anyway.

  51. 00z Canadian and UKMET up next. I suspect the Canadian will mimic its short range counterpart with a stronger/warmer solution.

  53. Knowing model bias is key right now.

    Canadian set is likely too far NW and too warm. That’ll correct southeast next 2 runs.

    NAM has no idea what to do with that wave outside 48 hours, but it’ll start to tune in next 2 runs.

    GFS is now in a spot where it does a decent job.

    I have a feeling the truth of what takes place lies between the current GFS and the upcoming ECMWF (anticipating).

    Mild air will be fleeting. This is to be mostly a snow event, even if it starts as a bit of rain south of Boston. I spoke above about wind direction and an overall colder regime being key – not comparable to events much earlier.

    Coldest air in 2 years on the way post storm. Two days next week probably will fail to hit 20 at Boston.

    There are 2 or 3 other potential winter storm windows of opportunity on my medium range “radar”.

    No surprises really as we have been anticipating this for some time.

  54. 00z UKMET with a solid hit as well:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025011700&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow at 10:1 with 3-5” though ratios will probably be higher than that inland

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011700&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Would love the more robust GFS solution but think the 3-6” range the Icon and UKMET are currently depicting is probably where this ends up. An advisory level event but wouldn’t rule out low end warning snows.

  55. Petey B. also with his eyes on the same opportunity I have mentioned in my discussion – about January 24 (and 2 after that as well).

  57. I think 3-6” may be the cap with this one. Not enough time for the system to fully develop and get its act together by the time it passes SE of us and it will be moving very fast so the snow is in and out of here in less than 12 hours.

  58. TK – Are we being set up for a mini-version of 2015? Iirc January 24, 2015 the snow blitz began.

    No I’m certainly not expecting 100” of snowfall but is close to normal (49.2”) a distinct possibility for Boston this winter?

    1. I would very much hesitate comparing it to 2015 even that way because that particular series was pretty extreme, and I know that’s not what your thought process is .. you’re just thinking more of the parade of opportunities. I prefer to think of it as just an active period, but several hits in succession would be reminiscent of that kind of activity, even if the storms are not nearly as big.

      The pattern going forward allows Boston a very good chance to approach (or reach) average snowfall for the season, yes.

  61. 6z Nam has corrected as TK suggested it would.
    I am thinking 5-8 inches. Ther ratio will be higher than 10:1.

    Waiting on 12z guidance.

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