Thursday January 16 2025 Forecast (7:30AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

We remain in a cold pattern overall, but a brief warm-up is coming, and it’s part of a pattern change that introduces more snow chances ahead, but first, a weak disturbance coming along from the west today will send clouds into the region and a period of snow showers this evening / tonight. Only a dusting / coating of snow is possible but up to an inch can fall on the islands just south of Cape Cod, as they will be closer to what becomes a developing low pressure area before it moves away overnight. Weak high pressure noses in on Friday from the southwest with fair and pleasant mid winter weather. High pressure then slides off the Atlantic Coast and a trough and cold front approach from the west Saturday, which will be a milder day. Enough mild air comes in so this front will be a rain producer for several hours Saturday evening – maybe enough to wash residual salt / road treatment off surfaces not too long before we’ll need them again. This will become the case as after the front moves through, cold air returns, then a wave of low pressure brings a period of accumulating snow Sunday night into early Monday. Later Monday, the coldest air mass of the season so far will be knocking on the door and not waiting for us to open it before barging in.

TODAY: Increasing clouds – fading sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow showers with dustings / coatings for accumulation, except up to 1 inch Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Decreasing clouds – sun returns. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy black ice possible overnight. Lows 23-30 in the evening, rising back into the 30s overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sun early, then cloudy. Highs 37-44 in the morning, then falling slowly through 30s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow with up to a few to several inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with snow early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 by midday, then quick-falling temperatures later in the day. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Dry and very cold through the middle of next week followed by a chance of snow late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern.

47 thoughts on “Thursday January 16 2025 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  4. #’s for Sunday night on tomorrow’s post. But we’ll have to move it when it falls, unless you want it to just sit there. 😉

    Reply

  5. I was curious about “a few to several inches” so I asked Google Gemini….

    “A few to several inches” of snow is a fairly vague term, but generally it suggests a range of:

    A few inches: This usually implies 1-3 inches of snow.
    Several inches: This typically means 3-6 inches of snow or more.
    Keep in mind:

    Vague terms are common in weather forecasts: Meteorologists often use terms like “a few” and “several” because it’s difficult to give precise predictions for snowfall amounts.  
    Local variations: Snowfall can vary significantly within a short distance due to factors like local geography and microclimates.  
    For the most accurate information:

    Check local weather alerts: Pay attention to warnings and advisories issued by your local National Weather Service office.
    Monitor local news: Stay updated on the latest weather forecasts from local news sources.
    I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any other questions.

    Sources and related content

    Reply

    1. Good stuff Dave . If I may add when the word significant is used in snow like it’s going to be a significant amount of snow or it will not be a significant amount of snow the definition of that is significant snowfall is a large amount of snow that falls in a specific area in a certain amount of time . It can also refer to heavy snow ,which is when a large amount of snow falls in a short period of time .

      Reply

        1. There abouts. I don’t really consider 6 inches as significant, but then the bar is high for me. 🙂 Also, it depends on ratio.
          6 inches of cement is more significant than 12 inches of fluff. To me anyway, for what it is worth. 🙂

          Reply

  7. Thanks TK.

    Several of the 0z models and now 6z GFS (see my post at the end of the last blog) have trended back NW and stronger with the Sunday night system and are indicating the potential for a moderate snowstorm. Will be interested to see the 12z suite today and if this is a trend or just a hiccup.

    Reply

    1. Indeed they are.
      Right now, I think our chances of a “moderate” snow event
      are pretty decent. Details will be unfolding…

      Reply

  10. Let’s keep in mind the specifics, and the ranges of impacts…

    Example:

    Scenario #1… 8 inches of snow fall in 24 hours at a steady rate in temps of 32-36F with virtually no accumulation on roads. Impact is minimal. Significant snow in terms of amount, but not a significant storm in terms of road impact.

    Scenario #2… Intense snow squall drops 1/4 inch of snow in 5 min on untreated roads that the pavement was marginal, so you have brief melt, while a temp dropping into 20s quickly turns the layer of snow on damp pavement into a sheet of ice. Not a significant snowstorm, but a very significant event.

    There’s too much hyperfocus on final snow totals, not in-storm and post-storm conditions. That has to change.

    Reply

    1. You are oh so correct!!

      We have to be careful how we label events and honestly I don’t think anyone has come up with the perfect terms just yet. And everyone will have a different opinion as to which events got into which bracket. A real NO WIN situation.

      Reply

    2. Excellent comment.

      I am not a big fan of using labels rather than number ranges because of your exact explanation.

      FWIW. Not related to snow but simply related to meaning.

      A couple is two
      A few is two to five or twenty depending on the use.

      Reply

  13. This Sunday night “may” just end up a little more JUICY
    than we have been discussing.

    GFS about to roll in a about 15 minutes.

    Reply

  17. At least on pivotal weather, someone is hand drawing each 3 hr panel as its taken forever to go from 60 to 63 hrs. By the way at hr 63, its already developing precip over the appalachians, far west of its previous runs.

    Reply

  19. NWS discussion re: Sunday night

    The main forecast challenge will revolve around an anafrontal wave
    of low pressure that will develop in the cold front. This will
    likely bring a period of snow or rain changing to snow late Sun into
    early Mon. There is still considerable spread on how close this wave
    of low pressure tracks in the vicinity of southern New England. The
    CMC model seems to be a west outlier…while the ECMWF is more of an
    east outlier. That being said…most of the 00z guidance suite
    indicates at least a period of snow or rain changing to snow over
    this time period for a good portion of the region. While this does
    not look like a major storm…accumulating snow is certainly
    possible for some locations.

    Reply

  20. FYI: Ana-frontal waves are poorly handled by global guidance beyond day 4. After that, better.

    The Sunday-Monday event is an ana-frontal wave.

    Reply

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