Friday January 17 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)

122 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

A sugar-dusting of snow fell in some areas overnight, and a little thicker coating in the South Coast region as a disturbance passed by the region. Today, high pressure noses in for a fair weather day and feeling fairly pleasant for mid January with above-freezing high temps and less wind. High pressure shifts offshore and a southerly wind increase for Saturday. But while this warms us up we end up cloudy as a cold front approaches. This front will bring a round of rain with the milder air in place Saturday late-day / early-night, before partial clearing arrives from west to east as the front pushes offshore. Colder air filters in Sunday, but we’ll have some diurnal temperature rise to overcome that along with some sun to start. But as colder air filters in from the north and west, clouds thicken back up as a low pressure wave rides up along the front that moved offshore the day before. This low pressure area will be moving quickly, but intensifying as it goes by, and this will result in a period of accumulating snow for Sunday evening to early Monday, with a widespread light to moderate snowfall expected. The lowest amounts are expected across Cape Cod and the Islands where some rain will be involved early on as the mild air holds on longest there. By the end of the event, we’ll be experiencing the onset of an arctic air invasion which will put us into the deep freeze late Monday and Tuesday, but with dry weather.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 21-28 evening. Temperatures rise slowly overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives late-day / evening except rain at first Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow Cape Cod / Islands. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Dry and very cold middle of next week (Wednesday-Thursday) while another storm tracks out to sea to the southeast of New England. Follow up system brings a snow chance late next week (Friday and/or Saturday). Fair, cold weather returns end of next weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January.

122 thoughts on “Friday January 17 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Nice call on the snow last night. You nailed that one and early as well. Nice little dusting here.

    6z Nam has corrected as suggested by TK.

    I see snow amount forecasts, but as of now I”m gping with 5-8 inches, subject to change. Perhaps warranting a Winter Storm watch and/or warning.

    We shall see

    Oh and not for nothing, but I swear I heard Pete say that we were in for a series of near misses.

    That would strongly suggest more Suppression!!!

    Reply

    1. He didn’t really say they’d all be near-misses. The one that goes by during the arctic surge is to be a near-miss. After that, jury’s out.

      I saw Pete and what he was suggesting was “active pattern” / “much to watch”.

      Reply

      1. That’s not exactly what I heard. Agree active pattern, but
        he was quite clear that he thought there would be a bunch of misses. 🙂 Certainly something to watch.

        Reply

          1. “Close calls” was the phrase, yes! And any met knows that we can’t be certain of hit or miss more than a few days out, so Pete was definitely speaking to the pattern, not specific misses. 🙂

            Reply

  14. By far, not a powerhouse storm passing by.

    Yet, whether it’s the storm being south of us or the wind going ageostrophic, the sfc winds are coming around pretty quickly to the N early in the event.

    Reply

      1. Perhaps mix or light rain at the start changing to snow.

        I 100% agree with TK’s amts and would lean down here towards the 3-4 part of the range.

        Reply

        1. You both have good numbers . I’ll take the snow machine out incase I need it . I have a funny feeling on the rain , but I trust above .

          Reply

  16. The correct formula for figuring out the total MLK Day snowfall is simple.

    Snowfall=P(Y−X=m|Y>X)=∑kP(Y−X=m,X=k|Y>X)=∑kP(Y−X=m|X=k,Y>X)P(X=k|Y>X)=∑kP(Y−k=m|Y>k)P(X=k|Y>X).

    Please be sure to memorize this! Pop quiz later!!

    Reply

    2. Seriously though ……

      The Saturday milder system does drag a cool front through and slowly, colder, drier air should seep southeastward through southern New England, thus setting up the temp contrast just southeast of southern New England, thus, the storm track should be near the benchmark, not up through interior SE Mass.

      I don’t buy the warm scenario.

      Reply

  19. Discussion from NWS

    Given the considerable differences between the NAM/RGEM…there
    remains plenty of uncertainty on the exact outcome. While no
    solutions can be ruled out at this point…we are favoring the
    GEFS/EPS Ensembles along with the UKMET that support a middle ground
    with the wave of low pressure tracking near the Benchmark. This
    solution would bring a period of accumulating/plowable snowfall
    which may start as a brief period of rain. A very preliminary
    snowfall forecast indicates that 2-6″ of snow is possible across a
    good portion of the region…which is supported by the latest NBM
    model. That is the most likely solution based on the current
    data…but given that there still is a large spread in the models
    this is not set in stone. There still is a low risk for little if
    any snowfall if the storm track trends east like the NAM or a far
    western solution like the RGEM…which would support mainly rain on
    the coastal plain. There also would be a low probability for a swath
    of over 6″+ of snow with a stronger low pressure system tracking
    just inside the Benchmark. But right now odds favoring more on the
    order of a 2-6″ type of snow for most locations…but probably less
    towards the Cape/Islands where Ptype issues are more likely.

    Reply

    2. Every time you post a snow storm that’s in advance of an upcoming snow event, it’s like you have a perfectly suitable girl you’re going steady with but you’re looking around for an upgrade. lol

      Reply

  23. I keep wondering if a strong flow from the NW will “push” the storm further south. I watched TV mets this AM. Even those that gave precise amounts seemed hesitant.

    Reply

        1. Let me go out on a limb and say that an hour 276 projection on the operational GFS is probably not going to happen as projected 🙂

          Reply

  27. The followup midweek storm in the Gulf of America is intriguing with the frigid air entrenched right down to the coastline. That one is going to be interesting to watch with heavy snow and ice possible as far south as New Orleans, Savannah and the Panhandle of Florida.

    That one will definitely end up a miss for us. The follow-up threat on the 24th/25th will bear watching…cold air will be relaxing and should provide an avenue for that system to head north up and off the northeast coast. 12z GFS showing a grazer right now for that one but the Euro had a direct hit on the last couple runs.

    Reply

  31. I wouldn’t make to much of future systems on the GFS ….

    The current one it didn’t get a clue on until it got to only 72 hrs out.

    So why trust anything it depicts 150+ hrs out ????????

    Reply

        1. Not actually, the Euro at 276 hours is cold and dry. It does have a storm post 300 hours on 1/31 that travels over us but still as depicted would be mostly a snow/ice event.

          But I dont put any stock in any model operational runs at that time frame. Overall the pattern in both model ensembles looks good through month’s end IMO.

          Reply

  36. We are leaving shortly to head up to snowy Sugarbush, VT for the weekend. I’ll try to check in and post a picture if we have some decent views. Fingers crossed the drive back Sunday evening isnt too much of a disaster.

    Reply

    2. Once upon a time I was at Sugarbush and was going to ski there, but instead moved up the road a bit to Stowe. So, never skiied
      Sugarbush. Looked like a nice area. ENJOY!!!

      Reply

    4. Thanks all. They have cashed in on the upslope snow this season. 4 feet since New Years and 135″ on the season. Will be nice to hit it when it is 100% open.

      Reply

    2. The medium range guidance will struggle to pick them out, then place & time them beyond day 6 or 7. They will then struggle as is typical with track (though usually better with timing) in the day 4-6 range, and then get “better” inside day 4. The problem now is that the GFS model is overcooking precipitation while the ECMWF is slightly undercooking it, hence yesterday’s comment by me that my expectation is that the event will land somewhere between those 2 operational model depictions. The Canadian group is way left and way warm. I expect a correction there on the 00z run, certainly the 12z after that. Yesterday, I noted the NAM needed up to 2 runs to “find” the storm. It did in 2 runs and should be zoning in pretty well from here – barring any surprises. My idea remains the same.

      Reply

      1. Turns out it was NOT , but not too far West. Farther West for sure, but since the rain snow line collapsed so fast, it was fine. 🙂 🙂

        Reply

      1. Also must be noted: The watch being issued further west does NOT mean the track is expected to shift much further west.

        They issue these based on a combination of forecast confidence and maximum potential snowfall (higher end scenario).

        The probability of 6+ outside the watch area is lower, as well as confidence based on the model spread, so they won’t issue the watch there for now.

        Reply

  49. After watching wankum there is a lot of uncertainty it seems which way this thing is going to shift which will determine numbers

    Reply

    1. All I can say is that when it comes to snow amounts, I have bought into NOTHING. Looking for consistency in tomorrow runs one way or the other.

      Reply

  50. The inconsistency is baffling to me. I’m convinced we have way too much info at our fingertips now and models have been tinkered with so much that they are too sensitive to small changes. I feel like forecasting was better before all that.

    Reply

    1. AGREE. I have posted about this within the past week. I feel that the models today do a reasonable job, but have lost some of their luster. When was the last time we heard the ECMWF referred to as The King.

      Reply

      1. I can’t remember when we said Euro was King!!!!

        I dunno, but I am getting a sense of a NW creep. Let’s hope it
        goes no farther.

        GFS looks awesome!

        Reply

        2. These things change with upgrades which can fix some things, but break others.

          Ironically, the European model has been the most consistent for the longest on this system.

          I currently lean toward a combo of its ensembles and the GFS ensembles for my snowfall forecast, which remains a general 3 to 6 inches (less on the Cape). Can someone go over 6? Certainly. I’ll pinpoint that, if I think it’s going to happen, on the next update.

          Reply

    2. Forecasting is just as good, if not better. But that depends on who is doing the forecasting and who is just following the models and flip flopping their info with every run of every piece of guidance.

      But I will agree, there’s almost too much info. 🙂

      Reply

  52. The inconsistency is really just born of enhanced model biases and shortcomings, much of which is seen and adjusted for.

    I don’t need the models to be right. I need them to be predictable in their inconsistency. Anticipated model error actually works most of the time. 🙂

    Reply

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