Saturday January 18 2025 Forecast (8:13AM)

177 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

This weekend marks the in-your-face portion of a weather pattern shift. Today will be a milder day with a southerly air flow freshening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will result in rain showers for our region late in the day and this evening. A period of partial clearing and the start of a chill down follows this overnight into Sunday, setting the stage for the second round of unsettled weather from late afternoon Sunday to early morning Monday. This will come as a batch of precipitation associated with a wave of low pressure moving swiftly northeastward along the frontal boundary that will then be offshore. The low will be starting to deepen fairly quickly as it passes by, and this combined with its precise track results in a tricky-to-forecast rain/snow line to start and a range of snowfall amounts. The low’s track will be close enough for the precipitation to start as rain from the South Coast of New England to the South Shore of MA, and snow elsewhere, but with the rain/snow line then shifting southeastward so that the areas that start as rain flip over to snow. To the west of the I-95 belt where there is nothing but snow and the atmosphere is coldest, snow amounts will be greatest, and areas that start as rain then turn to snow will have lesser overall snow accumulation in the end due to less time to accumulate, and wetter snow when it is snowing. If you have read my previous commentary you may have seen my initial snowfall forecast for this system was widespread 3 to 6 inches with 1 to 3 inches over Cape Cod and the Islands. The update today makes a few changes to this since we’re close to the event and can pinpoint a little more. I’ll trim back the eastern portion of the 1 to 3 inch area to limit accumulation to about 1 inch over Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1 to 2 inches for Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches for the remainder of the South Coast region up through the MA South Shore, 4 to 6 inches in the I-95 belt, and a bump-up in expected snow amounts to 6 to 8 inches west of the I-95 belt. This event wraps up first thing Monday morning as the last of the snow exits the coast around sunrise. This will be followed by plunging temperatures with a surge of arctic air that comes in Monday and lasts into the middle of next week, but with dry weather. Another low center will pass not-too-far southeast of New England by Wednesday, but the snow shield from that stays offshore.

TODAY: Limited morning sun, then cloudy. Rain showers arrive from southwest to northeast late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times especially South Coast and higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Overcast with widespread rain showers and areas of fog evening. Breaking clouds, dissipating fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives by late-day except rain southeastern MA / South Coast regions. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow southeastern areas. Expected snow accumulation by dawn – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches remainder of South Coast to MA South Shore, 4 to 6 inches I-95 belt, 6 to 8 inches west of I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

While the coldest air eases early in the period the pattern holds below normal temperatures in place. An additional snow threat exists in the January 24-25 window and again about January 27. Magnitude of threat(s) and details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January and start of February.

177 thoughts on “Saturday January 18 2025 Forecast (8:13AM)”

    1. I can give you a good idea of what I expect to fall there, based on my current thoughts on how the entire storm unfolds.

      It should start as snow there (maybe briefly mixed with rain at the very beginning) around the time it starts to get dark Sunday.

      From there, snow, a little wet and sticky at first, then progressively drier / fluffier. Most of the accumulation will take place between 6:00 p.m. Sunday and 4:00 a.m. Monday, and with maximum snowfall rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour confined to only a couple hours at some point Sunday evening, my expectation for the Malden/Melrose line is that about 4 or 5 inches will have fallen when it’s a done deal. Keep checking comments if you can because I may make tweaks in there.

      …And then of course tomorrow morning will have a full update!

      Reply

    2. Well hello to a new poster. Keeping in mind that my memory is short and we may have seen you before. But either way, it is great to see you here.

      Reply

  4. Thanks TK
    From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino

    Models you can use to forecast right now:

    Synoptic:
    ECMWF, GFS, CMC, Ensembles, AI

    Mesoscale:
    NAM
    HRRR: Too far out, wait until 18 hours out.

    CFS: You should be slapped if you use this.

    Reply

    1. CFS .. haha … only for pattern guidelines in the coming weeks / months. It’s actually done pretty well with that. First long-range model to pick out a colder trend for January. (It’s also done this for February and March too, btw).

      Reply

  5. Thanks TK.

    Is Boston in the 2-4 or 4-6 range? Even less certain where Quincy ends up.

    Does the “I-95 belt” include Boston or is that inland? I wish for the old “128” days.

    Reply

      1. I may get into the habit of mentioning some of the larger cities in my accumulation forecasts.

        For example, if I say Boston, it’d be assumed I meant the city and immediate suburbs. Same with Providence, Worcester, Nashua, Lowell, etc. …Not that places like Lowell are big enough to be considered to have “suburbs”, but the towns around it would be considered Lowell (area), for another example.

        Reply

  6. Thanks TK. I get mixed up with Natick and its location in the I95 belt. We looking at 3-6 or 4-8 or should I split the difference at 5?

    Reply

  9. TK, can you tell me to the nearest ten thousandth of an inch, how much snow I will receive and a time to the nearest second I should expect the mix/rain to change to snow.

    Thanks 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Sorry, I know I am being an ass, but I kind of think you’re pretty detailed on your locations and projected amounts given how difficult it is to predict snowfall given the small scale differences that can affect snowfall’s outcome.

    Reply

    1. Ok wise-guy …

      It starts raining at 4:35:39 p.m. Sunday.
      It changes to snow at 8:49:06 p.m.
      You get 2.9064 inches and it ends at 6:37:01 a.m. Monday.

      Lock it in! 🙂

      Reply

      2. lol !!

        No, I was just remembering back to the pre-Christmas system and that when it was done, we were saying who would have possibly created a snowfall projection map like that ?

        I was just sarcastically trying to make that point that I think it’s nearly impossible to get more specific than you have. I think your current amounts are quite specific.

        And I’m sure some band or 2 or some weak area will throw something off here that is impossible to know beforehand.

        Reply

  11. From Bernie Rayno

    The NAM,GFS,ECMWF, UKMET are very similar with 500 mb presentation although they differ in strength a bit, the CMC continues to show a more fragmented presentation & it appears to be the outlier. The ECMWF as increased its precip on western side. Like GFS solution as compromise

    Reply

    1. As far as the high res … HRRR from 12z is WAY too fast and WAY too far west. That model will correct closer to the event.

      We should start seeing a more reliable solution starting about 00z tonight and on from there out of the HRRR.

      Reply

  13. This might be the NAM run (12z) that over-corrects on precip / snow a little bit, with some #’s too high. If so, it’ll trim back in runs-to-come.

    Reply

  16. So looking like less down here now & that’s what I was afraid of . I also still have a feeling we are going to be in very low snow totals ( I was going to bring the snow machine out but now I am not ) I saw 1-3 down here & 2-4 above from Tk if I’m reading it right now. Two snow storms now where Plymouth county was supposed get more & less again , bummer .

    Reply

    1. “Supposed to get more” is not really a correct way to word that, SKK.

      You’re comparing forecasts from a few days ahead to a day ahead. There is a reason why we give early calls, then update them.

      We’re not even at the final call yet. That’s about 24 hours away. Not every update is the “locked in amount”.

      So don’t verify something before it actually begins / occurs.

      MY initial forecast was 3-6 regionwide and 1-3 Cape Cod.
      TODAY, my forecast is refined to trim down the amounts slightly on the eastern side and up them slightly on the western side, i.e., a greater range of snowfall, because more DETAIL is possible based on data available to analyze to make the forecast.

      For you, I have updated the initial 3-6 to 2-4. How big a change is that?

      You still have 3 and 4 in the range from the initial guess, and lost the 5 and 6. I lowered the low limit by ONE INCH from 3 to 2. And this is not even necessarily the final call for down there.

      Just enjoy the ride. You’ll get your big storm, whether it’s a weekend or not. We have a long, long, LONG way to go this winter my friend. 😉

      Reply

  17. Going to visit the blue hills observatory for the first time today… but for the most random reason: my friend introduced me to the “too good to go” app. You buy surprise bags for cheap from local businesses of stuff that they would have otherwise thrown out at the end of the day. For example, one pizza place near me only sells one bag a day for about $4. I bought it, showed up during the pickup window they gave and got a full pizza, about fifteen chicken tenders, a chicken parm sub and a salad. It’s not always that hefty of a deal, but I love when it is. Can’t wait to see what I get from Blue Hills. Didn’t even know they had food there.

    Reply

      1. This ties in to my comment to SSK above about even my current numbers not being the “locked in final call”. There is still over 30 hours before this event gets underway, as you know, and plenty of time for additional tweaks. I may end up back at my original forecast before it’s over, with only the addition of some of those 6+ patches/bands.

        My adjustment west was only by about 25 miles over yesterday’s update.

        Reply

  19. Not for nothing, but the 0Z Euro was quite a bit off shore.

    While the 6Z Euro is now closer to shore and even introduces rain

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011806/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011806/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_15.png

    So, where do we go from here? Windshield wiper effect?
    A legitimate trend?

    4-6 still looks good for Boston area, but NOT locked just yet.

    Color me NOT IMPRESSED. We’ll see if that changes for me.

    To me a 4-6 inch event is picturesque and nice to look at (I’ll take it), but it is NOT a snow storm. Has to be a bit more than that for me. Could still happen. I’m a wishing and a hoping.

    btw TK, have you totally discounted the GFS? Did you at least factor it in some, even though not believing in its snow totals?
    Curious and thanks

    Reply

    2. I hope “not impressed” doesn’t mean “disappointed because expecting more” .. I have never thought Boston would get over 6 out of this. 🙂 I’m assuming you mean “not impressed” by JP Dave standards that if it’s not a double-digit snowfall, it’s a yawn-fest. 🙂

      I think the GFS snow amounts are over-done, yes.

      Reply

      1. No, You have been straight all along. NOTHING to do with you, just my thoughts on the event. It was NEVER forecast to be a biggie, not by you, not by anyone. 🙂

        And Yes, not impressed by JP Standards. I need at least double digit amounts, preferably in the 2 foot range for
        an Impressable event. 🙂 Meaning I am not impressed almost all of the time. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Now give me that stretch in 2015! That was MOST IMPRESSABLE!!!!!

        Reply

      1. I thought that this model was reasonably reliable?
        What happened to it?

        You know what, they should remove all but a few models
        from the sites. We shouldn’t even look at some of them. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Reply

        1. It’s not great for some events. It’s decent for warm season convective events, more so than cold season events such as this.

          Reply

  21. RDPS nudged SE on its 12z run vs 00z run

    In some ways, this is like the behavior of hurricane models.

    The mildest models are trending a little colder and the colder models are trending a little milder, as they converge to something in the middle of their biases towards the correct outcome.

    Reply

    1. This is basically what happens (in the overall view). There are always a couple wilder solutions that kind of are head-scratchers, but these become easy to pick out and discount after a while…

      Reply

    2. Look at the progression from the 0Z to the 6Z to the 12z. Getting there. AND at the same time, the overall snow amounts have come down. 🙂

      Reply

  25. Finally to the end so I can say thank you to TK

    Exceptional write up today.

    I was thinking. (mac always groaned when I said that.).

    Are 3-6, 4-8, 5-10 really all that different. 3, 4, 5 only have a 1 to 2 inch difference. The upper numbers a bit more difference but then that seems to make sense to me if the upper amounts may be what we focus on for a particular storm.

    That’ssssss all folks

    Reply

  26. Some great games today.

    Im hoping for:

    4:30 KC
    3:00 meh
    6:30 buffalo
    8:00 Washington

    Brown sugar kielbasa and sauerkraut in slow cooker and crab dip and stuffed mushroom being put together now

    Reply

    1. It’s 42F here in Quincy. Hope it doesn’t get “too” mild tomorrow preceding the snow. I don’t want to see raindrops when the next precip moves in.

      According to TK, it’s easier to snow from mild. Still a hard concept for me to understand. I much rather see it nice & cold to start.

      Reply

      1. The basic idea is coming out of mild you often have strong cold advection and support for continued snowfall, where as in many cases, coming out of cold you have strong warm advection and lose support for snow.

        This happens quite often around here.

        Reply

  29. As suspected / expected, Canadian is correcting southeastward and GFS is correcting downward in its overinflated snow totals.

    Reply

  31. Thanks TK.

    So the 1/5-1/20 window is going to beat the buzzer on a significant SNE snow. And, the shift to a “milder” pattern is actually going to improve snow chances even more going forward in SNE. Hence why I was very reluctant to say that 1/20 would be the end. It may be just the beginning. I know the other mets here have echoed a lot of similar sentiments. Funny how these things work 🙂

    “Eventually” the Southeast ridge may become too strong and bring a somewhat early end to winter in SNE, though that is far from certain especially with the amount of snow we may lay down in the next 2-3 weeks. But this is easily the best sustained pattern for cold and snow lovers in the East since the 2010s.

    Reply

    1. #Meteorology for the win!

      Thanks and I agree with pretty much all of this.

      My previously mentioned “lull” for February is based partially on the idea of a stronger ride in the Southeast what would push the storm track north, kill any subtropical action (at least bigger stuff), but still allow cold air intrusions based on a better snow cover and continued cold in Canada.

      But this also sets up those ice storm possibilities if we do manage to drag a batch of Pacific moisture across the country and over a “warm aloft / cold surface” set-up.

      I suspect the polar jet still has enough to give us the colder side of normal rounding out January and maybe 1st week (or 2) of February) before we enter the pattern I just described.

      Early spring chances are there: But giving it til mid March, easily, for another surge of the feel of (and the look of) mid winter, minus the ever-increasing sun angle.

      But yes, best overall winter pattern for the the eastern US of this current decade so far.

      Thank you! Look forward to your next check-in!

      Reply

      1. Agree TK. And yeah, the next 7-10 days won’t feel “mild” by any stretch, it’ll still be quite cold and that’s a little bit of a miss from me, but still in line with the big picture ideas. And agree totally on the mixed precip potential in February with probably a milder pattern but potential stubborn low level cold especially if we have good snow pack.

        Reply

      1. Actually, 4+ will occur in a lot of areas. That is a significant snowfall. So 100% a significant snowfall for much of SNE.

        WxW, I, and others have noted the time window of January 5 to 20 for quite some time, and I have been targeting “around January 20” for a legit threat for the last 2 weeks. It is indeed about to become the case for the vast majority of SNE.

        In fact, the NWS just expanded the Winter Storm Watch which now encompasses about 75% of southern New England for the potential of 6+. About 85% of SNE has a solid potential of 4+. That’s significant.

        Reply

        2. I will respectfully disagree on yours and WxWatcher’s definition of significant. This isn’t the south. Significant should be 12+. Only other way is a high impact event with high snowfall rates in a short period of time.

          Reply

          1. Given how rare an actual 12+ snowstorm is in SNE (outside of the mountains), 4+ is absolutely the correct lower limit for significant in this case. The definition used by NWS (in general, with tweaks for specific conditions), is “at least 5 inches of snow in 24 hours”.

            This is going to be a significant snowfall for most of SNE.

            Also, I’m well aware this isn’t the South. I’m not talking about the 1 or 2 inches that shut down places like Atlanta. 😉

            I’m talking about THIS event. And THIS event will produce a significant snowfall for most of SNE.

            Reply

            1. I would never in a million years consider
              a 4 inch snowfall as significant. Never, unless it was
              4 inches of sleet and frozen rain.

              Reply

          2. There’s room to disagree and it’s definitely a subjective word, but a minimum of 12 for “significant” is really not in the ballpark. 12”+ storms are quite rare. FWIW, I think most (>50%) of SNE will see over 5-6” of snow with this storm, which is roughly what I consider significant since it meets NWS WSW criteria.

            Reply

  32. Thank you, TK.

    Still gray here, low to mid 40s. Almost no rain, however. Just overcast on a daily basis with little difference in temperature between day and night. VERY different climate from New England, needless to say.

    For those interested, my latest batch of Forbes pieces, which runs the gamut from Medicare drug price negotiations to RSV to obesity drugs to banning of red dye in foods to life expectancy: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    Reply

    2. While the ratio will shift during the event, the overall average ratio for this should be close to 10:1 in the I-95 belt, 8:1 to the southeast, and 12:1 to the northwest.

      Reply

  34. Cold air holds much less moisture than warm air.

    For instance, in the mid 70s dp air of a few summers ago, the atmosphere dropped 8-12 inches of rain in Leominster.

    Well, we don’t get 80-120 inch snowstorms because the PWATs of winter dwarf those of summer.

    And so, it really is a Herculean effort by the atmosphere when we get a region wide 12”+ snowfall.

    And thus, I side closer to the 4” mark as being significant compared to 12”.

    Reply

      1. By numbers, I can totally understand what you’re saying.

        I guess I’m saying by properties of air masses, getting 12” of snow is not an easy thing to accomplish.

        Reply

        1. I know what you are saying, but I believe it is a bit easy than you are saying, especially with high ratios situations. 🙂

          Reply

  36. Thank you TK, WxWatcher, Tom, JPD, JimmyJames, for the discussion and links, Philip for asking what areas I95 (128) include, and Dr Stupid for your much appreciated maps.

    Reply

  38. Nws definition of significant

    A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur…it only means it is possible.

    Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:


    1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR


    2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR


    3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.
    The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Watch for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

    https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined#:~:text=Significant%20and%20hazardous%20winter%20weather%20is%20defined%20as%20a%20combination,damage%20to%20trees%20or%20powerlines.

    Reply

          1. These are defined as such for a reason, so going be the definition most definitely makes sense, and now I have set a record for using 3 forms of the same word in a sentence. 🙂

            Reply

  39. So I need to bring up again that example I posted a couple days ago, regarding snow amounts.

    Yes the NWS has clear cut definitions of things, but nearly everything outside an absolute measurement has conditions where the impact is greater or less than the given defined version.

    You do remember…

    1/2 inch of snow in a snow squall in 5 min falling on the right kind of road conditions can turn the road into a sheet of ice and lead to major accidents and traffic gridlock. While that’s not a significant snow event by the accumulation definition, it’s a significant weather event caused by snow, therefore a significant snow event.

    8 inches of snow that accumulates on cold unpaved surfaces over a day and a half, falling steadily but not too heavily, while all of the snow melts on the roadway, is a significant snowfall by accumulation definition but not so significant in terms of road impact.

    So these things are very important to keep in mind.

    With 4+ inches of snow falling over a large portion of the region in about a 12 hour period, this will generally fit into the accepted definition. You can argue, 4, 5, 6. And many areas will get 5, 6, or even more out of this. For the region as a while, it WILL BE a significant snow event, by definition. There’s absolutely NO debate on that aspect of it. Go to Nantucket, where they may squeeze an inch or so out of this – but not falling in a 5 min snow squall – no it won’t be a significant snow event there.

    I think that’s pretty much all there is to say about that now. 🙂

    Moving forward and actually forecasting the weather from here on!

    Reply

    1. Every word makes absolute sense.

      I remember heading to a meeting in Burlington years ago sitting on route 2 for over two hours due to a snow squall. There were many cars off the road. It sure was significant

      Reply

  40. Starting to see the HRRR make its correction. 🙂 HOWEVER, it’s got several runs to go to “get there”.

    NWS has actually pushed the 6 inch area further east and expanded the Winter Storm Watch to Metro West. I’m sure somebody has already said that but I’m not going back through the scroll to find it. 😉

    I’m focusing on 1) the rain event that is getting underway now and 2) the significant snowfall that is just over 24 hours away for much of the region that I first alerted you to the potential of about 12 days ago.

    By tomorrow I’ll have a little more commentary on the cold outbreak and the future storm threats, but for now my discussion above will suffice. Thanks. 🙂

    Reply

      1. On and off rain drops here for a while. Not enough to register in the guage …..well unless the bucket tipped over. Time to check

        Reply

  43. Here’s a good way to show the HRRR’s ongoing correction.

    12z run, forecast for 9PM Sunday, rain/snow line was just south of Boston.

    18z run, forecast for 9PM Sunday, rain/snow line is at the Cape Cod Canal.

    Reply

  44. I’m very pleased, personally, with the weather today, for this reason.

    I still had an uneven 1 to 2 inch snowcover, much of it covering the wires to the Christmas lights, on the ground here.

    The temp boosting over 40 and the rainfall is eliminating that rapidly, it ends this evening, the the ground largely dries out by morning. Tomorrow, 10AM, my son and I go out and remove the outside lights and electric cords and other decorations from the holiday season, which we can easily finish prior to the onset of the snow here. I’m very grateful for it working out for us. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Yes. This is reflective of the actual set-up, which we see the poor model solutions now in the process of correcting.

      I still don’t know how widespread the 6+ will be in the warning area, but that said, I’m fully in agreement with it being issued.

      Reply

      1. 🙂 We shall see IF this really becomes a warning event or not.
        It will be nice to see either way. As I said earlier, not impressive, but I’ll take it, especially given the last 2 snow seasons. 🙂

        Reply

        1. It will definitely meet the criteria for parts of the region.

          Will Boston be one of those? Time will tell…but I still hesitate to say they’ll reach 6 at the airport.

          Press me for a guess and I say 4.6 inches there.

          Reply

    1. Great day / weekend for a sports fan.

      I don’t usually watch Celts games, but I root for them and check highlights. Bruins and all 4 football games will be on screen for me wherever I am.

      Reply

  50. Thanks, TK!

    I, too, took advantage of the 40+ temps to wrap up the outdoor Christmas decorations. Santa and the lights are tucked away for another year.

    Reply

  51. I haven’t mentioned this for a few days, but the MJO is right at the tail end of a pretty decent phase 2 (marginal at this time of year). It’s going to make a quick and weak trip through the unfavorable snow phases 3 through 5 (after this evening, taking about 10 days), then re-strengthen in phase 6 before returning to favorable phases 7, 8, and 1 (from day 10 on for a while). This is generally good news for winter/snow lovers. 🙂

    Reply

  54. hmmm are the forecasted snow totals going to come down now?
    OR do they wait till the 0Z runs?

    Not looking so bullish now.

    Reply

    1. I wouldn’t react to one run of one model that is known to do this with its precipitation. It’s a well known bias of that model inside 24 hours, or the current version of that model. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Which one? HRRR, Both NAMS and RDPS are all down.
        We’ll See if the GFS is down, but I understand.

        If 0Z are also down, I’d be concerned. Thank you.

        Reply

  55. Game 1: Rooting for Houston. I’d LOVE to see an upset in this game. After that though, I’d not be rooting for them to move on. 🙂

    Reply

      1. Good. Getting toward the actual potential of the system, less overcooked. This is what I expected. Corrections continue.

        Reply

  57. The only TV snow map I’ve seen so far is Ch 5’s, which is increased from this morning. Coating to 2 inches Cape Cod, progressing 2-4 to 4-6 northward from the South Coast to Boston’s southern suburbs, 6-12 inches from Boston N & W.

    Reply

      1. Of course if anyplace came in at 7, it would fit the range, so they would be covered. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        I always HATED that range. Just too wide. It is a cop out
        Narrow it to 6-9 or 9-12 or something, A blanket 6-12?
        Nope. Never liked it even growing up. Oh well, not much I can do about it. Even 8-12 is considerably better.

        Reply

    3. So does that leave western pembroke in the 2-4 ( that’s the range you had this morning or maybe a tad more . I think Jason from fox had us in 1-3 earlier as did ch 5. I decided to bring the snow blower out just incase

      Reply

          1. If it changes, it’ll be up for your area, but not by much. It would basically go back to my original 3-6 call (maybe 3-5) .. I have to re-examine the high res guidance tonight.

            Reply

      1. It’s on NESN. 5-4 with 3 min left. This has been a wild game!
        Lots of penalty time for roughing and a couple glove drops. 9 goals (so far). Ottawa is about to pull the goalie. I predict a 6-4 final.

        Ok so I jinxed that. 5-5. 🙂

        Reply

  61. Like I mentioned yesterday when there is snow on the ground psychologically makes the cold seem worse at least on my part.

    Reply

  64. Tried to keep up with forecast amounts but thought I would check to see if there had been material changes. Bruins had scrappy game this afternoon but just came up short. On to football now.

    Reply

    1. I really have only made one minor change to my amounts.

      I’m not into roller coasters … actual ones, or forecast changes. 😉

      Instead, I anticipate model error and adjust for those ahead of time, and follow the rules of thumb about not putting #’s too early and using proper ranges. It helps. 🙂

      Of course I also don’t have a boss breathing down my neck about ratings either. 😉

      Reply

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