Sunday January 19 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

Early morning warning! If you are about to step outside and it’s before 9:00 a.m., watch for patches of black ice where moisture from yesterday’s rain and overnight fog has frozen on some surfaces as the sky cleared and temperature fell to freezing or below in many locations. This will improve quickly as the sun rises and the temperature heads back above freezing on the journey to today’s relatively mild high temperatures (upper 30s to lower 40s). Any remaining fog patches dissipate early as well, and we’ll have sunshine for a while, but mid and high level clouds will quickly be on the increase later this morning, leading to an overcast afternoon, capping the temperature rise as we cut off the solar heating and also start to feel the arrival of a colder air mass from west to east across the region, albeit slowly at first. At the same time, a wave of low pressure currently in the US Southeast will be on a quick northeastward journey and will be passing off our coast tonight and first thing Monday morning, while intensifying. This low pressure system will bring a quick-hitting but significant snow event to most of the region. Milder air in place at the onset means that it starts as rain for a good portion of southeastern MA and RI to southeastern CT (basically the MA South Shore to the New England South Coast), before the cold air flips those areas to snow. This also means those areas will have lower snow totals, as discussed on the previous blog post. Elsewhere, a general moderate snowfall is likely, with several inches in the range of accumulations. The system exits early Monday, and other than an potential snow shower ushering in arctic air, look for dry and much colder weather Monday through Thursday. A storm system will pass not too far offshore Wednesday, but as for its snow shield, that will likely be a near-miss for the South Coast / Cape Cod region outside of a potential band of ocean effect snow showers reaching Outer Cape Cod as a result of the storm’s circulation. The core of the cold will be exiting by Thursday afternoon.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds morning-midday. Overcast remainder of day with end-of-day snow (NW) and rain (SE) arriving. Highs 36-43. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, except rain changing to snow southeastern areas, then snow tapering off just before sunrise. Expected snow accumulation – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches near the Cape Cod Canal and South Coast region, 4 to 8 inches elsewhere, with isolated pockets of 8-10 inches possible mainly west of the I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of passing snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. A band of lower clouds and snow shower possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Nantucket.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Snow potentials (favoring southeastern areas) in the January 24-25 window, and another potential January 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued near to below normal temperature pattern to end January / start February.

102 thoughts on “Sunday January 19 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  3. I’m hoping for a snowy game in Buffalo tonight. I read Buffalo NWS discussion but I’m not familiar with how any lake effect bands set up with respect to where the stadium is.

    Also, wonder if the 3pm Philly game has rain, rain to snow or gets in before precip arrives ?

    Reply

  7. Tom Winter Storm Warning for Philadelphia. 4-6 inches expected from what I just read. Second half of the game the snow could really be coming down. It may start as some rain. The last time I remember a snow game in Philadelphia was when the Eagles played the Lions. I believe this was just over ten years ago.

    Reply

  8. I see snow for the Philadelphia game at 3 PM today. But I’ll let TK weigh in on timing of flip down there.

    I’ll take either team, just happy to be in a Championship game so quickly.

    Thanks TK, I see a general 4-8 storm everywhere north of the SE Coast of NE Cape. Someone mentioned this, much easier to snow going into colder pattern especially here at the coast. Going cold into warm always seems to kill us near the coast.

    Reply

    1. I have mentioned it – easier to snow coming out of “warm”. This was taught to me (and SAK) and several of our colleagues by the great Peter Leavitt who was one of the all time greatest forecasters from the old school days. He had the original weather-related MA vanity plate: WX. 🙂

      Reply

  11. Philip before the season started I had the Lions going to the Super Bowl. Give the Commanders credit the Lions could not stop them. I am thinking as a Cowboys fan I got to face this team twice a year when before Jayden Daniels arrival those were two easy wins. Not the case anymore.

    Reply

      1. Philip Cowboys did not give Mike McCarthy a new contract. His contract expired at the end of the season so they parted ways.

        Reply

    2. No he’s a great QB and reminds me of Lamar . But I am really disappointed Detroit & KC won yesterday . I’m hoping for a better turnaround today with a Buffalo win tonight ( I hope )

      Reply

  12. As of Wednesday January 29, it will be exactly 1,095 days since Boston received 24”+ of snowfall. Expect many, many more days to follow, if not years.❄️

    I hope my math is correct. 😉

    Reply

    1. Well, let’s be realistic about that stat. How many 24+ inch snowstorms has Boston had since records began? 🙂

      Reply

          1. January 26-27 2015: 24.4
            February 8-9 2013: 24.9
            March 31-April 1 1997: 25.4
            February 6-7 1978: 27.1
            February 17-18 2003: 27.6

            Honorable mention
            January 29 2022: 23.6 (most snow in one calendar day, also tied with February 17 2003)

            Reply

  14. Good morning and thank you Tk

    Not a fan of the 4-8 inch range on snow maps. Not precise enough.

    Nws has 6-8 inches on their snow map. Much more precise range, imho. but has 4-8:on their wsw.

    Looking at the latest models, most have only 4 or 5 inches kuchera. gfs is the outlier at 7 or 8.

    I am concerned that this may end up just as an advisory event and not a warning event. Will see what the rest of the 12z suit shows.

    whichever it is, will be nice to see.

    Reply

    1. 4-8 works fine when across that area it can range, literally, from 4 to 8. We can’t always narrow an entire region down to 2 inches. You’ve seen this in large variations over short distances. So 4-8 is absolutely acceptable. I’m guessing you don’t like that I used it today. 😉

      A couple winters ago we had a storm where the snowfall ranged over one foot over just 10 miles … good luck forcing us into small ranges with that kind of stuff. We are doing just fine. 🙂

      Reply

      1. That’s fine, doesn’t mean I have to like it.
        I understand that there are times where you just can’t pin it down, but You can’t stop me from not liking that kind of wide range. I never have liked it and I never will. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Both the 4-8 and the 6-12 drive me up the wall.

        Reply

        1. Btw, with this event that range will verify if 4 inches fall
          or if 8 inches falls and anything in between. AND highly likely it will verify, perhaps on the low end. We shall see.

          Reply

  15. Dave, these are by calendar day, every snowfall for 2014-2015 at Logan, but you can still get the idea that the only storm that came close to 2 feet was the first of the four biggies…

    Nov. 27: 0.3″
    Nov. 28: 2.3″
    Dec. 6: 0.3″
    Jan. 3: 1.4″
    Jan. 6: 0.2″
    Jan. 9: 0.2″
    Jan. 15: 0.8″
    Jan 24: 5.1″
    Jan. 26: 2.3″
    Jan. 27: 22.1″
    Jan. 28: 0.2″
    Jan. 30: 0.7″
    Jan. 31: 1.3″
    Feb. 2: 16.2″
    Feb. 5: 0.8″
    Feb. 7: 0.9″
    Feb. 8: 7.4″
    Feb. 9: 14.0″
    Feb. 10: 1.5″
    Feb. 11: 0.5″
    Feb. 12: 1.0″
    Feb. 14: 3.2″
    Feb. 15: 13.0″
    Feb. 17: 0.6″
    Feb. 19: 2.4″
    Feb. 21: 1.1″
    Feb. 22: 0.1″
    Feb. 25: 1.9″
    Feb. 26: 0.2″
    Mar. 1: 1.9″
    Mar. 2: 0.2″
    Mar. 3: 1.6″
    Mar. 15: 2.9″
    Mar. 20: 0.5″
    Mar. 21: 1.2″

    TOTAL: 110.3″

    Reply

  16. Came to bottom of driveway and car would not stop. Slid right out onto our main street … fortunately it was very early and no cars around.

    Walked the shore and it was all people could do to make sure they didn’t fall. Some were wearing micro-spikes, usually reserved for hiking / climbing. I thought it was funny until I started walking. All of a sudden it became lots less funny. Didn’t fall but came close.

    Reply

  19. Tk fox 25 has Marshfield in the 3-6 zone . What are your thoughts on that and higher vs lower it looks like that zone Went from Boston down through here . I know I’ve asked you this & got your answer but could the rain hold on much longer from Boston to the cape giving us little snow . Thank you and go Bills !!

    Reply

    1. No, this is not going to turn into a mostly rain event for your area, and their range is acceptable based on my forecast.

      Reply

  21. 13Z RAP kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011913&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z HRRR kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z NAM Kucerha Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    3KM NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    These all suggest 4 or 5 inches, perhaps 4-6 inches.

    Will this really be a warning event????

    I guess it will come down to now casting and watching the snow rates as it occurs. Anything can happen with a deepening system as it passes by us. Do the models currently have it correct??????

    Fascinating……

    Reply

    1. To your point, the amounts on those models have come down some since yesterday, bringing most of the area below warning criteria (and below the significant threshold)

      Reply

  25. All the snow maps look reasonably sound.

    And yet, it’s highly likely the placement of a heavier band of snow and/or the placement of a lighter than expected area of snow will cause a few areas to exceed or underperform these ranges.

    Reply

    2. So it sounds like you’re saying we could get less than expected, or that the maps are sound and we’ll get what’s predicted, or we will over perform. Every possible option if you think about it lol

      Reply

  26. I like this met on fox 25 as she specifically mentions towns .3-6 all the way from Boston through the south shore

    Reply

  31. 12Z RDPS Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z ICON Kuchera Snow
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ok, this is a bunch of models and enough to give me pause.

    This is really looking like a 4 or 5 inch routine run of the mill
    snowfall. Nothing special.

    And to add insult to injury, the 6Z EURO introduces RAIN

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011906/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011906/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7.png

    I just can’t get excited about this event.

    Reply

  33. The thing that needs to be kept in mind is the amount of variability across relatively short distances that are possible in almost every single type of event we can get.

    But there is still a large issue that the general population has, called the backyard syndrome, or backyard bias. I’m not going to repeat again what that is because I’ve done it countless times and you all know it here. It’s rampant on social media.

    Let me put it this way, right now, I wouldn’t change anything that is posted by NWS.

    I also wouldn’t chop down the entire event based on exact numbers from short range guidance. There is a heavy aspect of meteorology involved in this that goes far beyond model output.

    Reply

    1. To your excellent point, I will repeat. We can be and often are 2-3 inches below Sutton center. We have instances of frozen precipitation in the center area and rain here. That area is five miles as the crow flies from here. I’m not sure how ranges can be narrowed. I look at the numbers as a guide only

      On that note, my neighbor just moved his snow blower out of the garage.

      Reply

    1. This particular cloud-up will not be the classic cirrostratus to altostratus.

      We are still right on the border of the mild air and the colder air, and there is a deck of mid level clouds that is kind of preceding everything. But these mid level clouds are not the classic snow sky altostratus. It is likely somewhat broken and cellular in nature, kind of a hybrid altocumulus.

      Reply

  35. The conditions are great right now. I’m moving firewood around without a coat or jacket.

    My son is in CA for work at Stanford medical center. It’s currently two degrees warmer here than there. Of course, it’s three hours earlier there.

    Reply

    1. This is exactly how I envisioned this morning-midday would go. Sun, relatively mild, not much wind at all.

      My son and I are about to head outside for a 3 hour project which we remove outdoor holiday decorations, lights, and electric cords. The snow cover has vacated and while the ground is technically “wet” it’s not sopping or smushy. A pair of boots, medium jacket, hat, gloves and we’re good to go!

      Like JJ likes to clean his leaves up before it snows, I like to take advantage of a window of opportunity to get these outdoor decorations down before we get our next snowcover. We’re going to beat that by just a few hours. 🙂

      Reply

  37. Not to look beyond this system, but a quick glance at some 12z medium range stuff & the pattern tells me the Friday/Saturday threat is highest for southeastern MA and RI.

    Reply

  39. I was curious.

    QPF wise, the models that have 3-5 inches do still put down .4-.6 melted.

    So, I’m guessing the profile of the entire column is not so cold as to feature high snow ratios.

    If the models are slightly too mild in the column, then that amount of QPF that even they simulate should translate to snow projections closer to the GF uselesS.

    Reply

        1. I’ll see if I can dig it up later as I am already outside working on a project.

          But the basic idea is something I have already said here several times leading up to this event and something that has not changed.

          Starts as wet snow ( rain for some of the region before it flips over to wet snow). It will be a progressively drier snow deeper into the event from northwest to southeast.

          Reply

  44. Looks like my winter storm “watchless” streak continues at Day 933 since I moved to south coast from Minneapolis (where a low is forecast for -16f Tuesday am). Winter weather advisory here in South Dartmouth. I am hopeful the one of these future storms will lead to the Golden Shovel award here for the South Coast

    Reply

  49. 850 mb and 925 mb temps are sufficiently below freezing,so
    even if it starts as rain, it should flip to snow quite quickly.
    This mild air is basically at the surface only.

    Reply

  50. It is COLD to our N&W. Currently only19 at Burlington, VT.
    This cold WILL be draining into this system. Just a matter of time.

    Reply

  52. From my neophyte level, it looks like the models today are pointing to more 3-5 inches than some higher totals mentioned. Are they expected to bounce back or being ignored for some reason?

    Reply

  53. This is probably a good time to remind everybody that the difference between 4 inches and 6 inches of snow is about 0.2 inch melted.

    It’s really not that big a deal how many inches fall. It’s about the CONDITIONS.

    Also, ranges like 4-8 inches are NOT cop outs. Nice try, Chuck. It’s so fun looking at you on the other side of the window sometimes. You put yourself there buddy. 😉

    And now, back to the weather, and doing it the right way. 🙂

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *