Saturday February 1 2025 Forecast (8:33AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

The first month of 2025 is in the books, and it will be remembered as an overall cold and dry month. However, late month gave us a glimpse of the pattern that’s going to be dominant as we head through the first half of February, and that is one that puts us in path of Pacific storm systems that ride a border between a very cold Canada and a milder US Southeast. There will be a lot of systems to track and detail going forward, with a wide range of possibilities on the table, but first it’s time to pull in and focus on the first five days of the month. Today, we have some lingering snowflakes falling in eastern sections, behind yesterday’s departing low pressure area. This was mainly a rain event, but last night, colder air working in from the north flipped it to snow in much of the region, early enough for up to a couple inches in southern NH and parts of northern MA, and generally under an inch in the Route 2 corridor, with just patchy dustings to the south of there, at most. It’s not the snow amount that’s the issue for today. As we bring in dry air, we also bring in an arctic air mass with falling temperatures, so any wetter surfaces are going to freeze up quickly, and remain so through the weekend if left untreated. Tonight and Sunday, sublimation will help get rid of thinner ice coatings, but don’t take that for granted if you have to drive or walk anywhere during the next couple days. As for weather, I mentioned dry air comes in, and high pressure builds over the region tonight, which will be “wicked cold”, and then tomorrow the high slides to the east and after a very cold morning it recovers a little bit. However, the pattern is active, the next low pressure system, a quasi-clipper, will be tracking north of our region from late Sunday to late Monday. This process will send a warm front through the region Sunday night, with a batch of accumulating snow for much of the region – not a big event, but enough that some shovels and brooms will be needed. The South Coast will be mild enough to see some rain mixed in with this portion of the event. Monday we get into the warm sector of the low and it’ll be quite mild, with high temps well into the 40s. This will take care of most of the snow that fell and any lingering icy patches from our most recent event. A rain shower may visit some areas later in the day as a cold front swings through from northwest to southeast. This may be followed by a snow shower later at night wandering down from the mountains to our north as colder air returns. High pressure building into the Great Lakes brings us a chilly, breezy Tuesday. By Wednesday, this high will work its way into southeastern Canada and we’ll see the early stages of the “battle zone” pattern setting up. Some guidance is more aggressive with the next system, bringing snow/mix/rain into southern New England during Wednesday, while other guidance is a little slower with this process, just sending clouds in on Wednesday but holding the precipitation off. It’s not atypical to see this differences in the guidance at this range for this type of a set-up. For this update, I’ll forecast increasing clouds for day 5, and mention a snow/mix chance at night, but keep in mind that the time frame can be moved up, or back, as I monitor the guidance and overall set-up the next few days…

TODAY: Cloudy start with some lingering snow flurries in eastern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 26-33 by midday, then falling through the 20s. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10 inland, 10-17 coast. Wind diminishing to calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches mainly from the I-90 belt northward, and a few snow/mix/rain showers to the south. Lows 20-27 early, then rising into the 30s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Active pattern mentioned above delivers unsettled weather February 6 and again sometime in the February 8-9 time frame. A wide variety of outcomes exists, but early leaning is snow to mix to rain with the first system and a “colder” second system.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

We should hear from the next storm system before the end of this period as the pattern remains active. This pattern doesn’t feature powerful storms, but more frequent overrunning type events with longer-durations and higher than average potential for icing to be involved.

84 thoughts on “Saturday February 1 2025 Forecast (8:33AM)”

  1. TK, thank you for the detailed forecast. Looks like tricky times for forecasting, not that we haven’t seen that before.

    Hope you have a good weekend!

    1. This winter – so far – reminds me of so many of my school year winters when I was an aspiring future weather forecaster. It reminds me of the late 1970s and 1980s. It was cold alot, it didn’t snow that much (after 1978) for quite a while, except a few select events, and there were some winters with a lot of these overrunning events. It keeps making me think that there’s at least some correlation to that sudden temp drop in the Tropical Atlantic waters last summer, that mimics a negative AMO, which we had in the time period I mentioned.

      1. I am not sure if I remember correctly but I believe you posted a number of years ago about the changing phases in the AMO and potential long-term meteorological effects. Do you remember this? I have read that we are going through a cooler (negative) phase but I cannot remember your outlook.

        On another note, light flurries now.

  4. Thanks TK
    Hoping for more white than wet or ice with the upcoming pattern. Either way things to track.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    ONLY a sugar coating of snow here. Was still RAINING at Midnight!
    Was not doing anything at 8AM and by 8:30 it was snowing lightly again. Currently, a few flakes in the air.

    Gotta love the 6Z GFS even though it likely will NOT verify.

    1. The 6z GFS literally only has half as much snow around here over the next 2 weeks compared to what the 00z had. TK and I were already discussing it early this morning.

  7. This morning reminds me of one of those little “events” where it was gonna end, but it takes 2 extra hours and an extra inch of snow before it happens. 😉 And yes I know I just wrote my forecast. I’ve seen this too many times to not recognize it, slightly after the fact. 😉

  12. Some of the short range guidance had this, but to a lesser degree. Most interpretations would just be: “lingering snow showers”. Well, yes, these are lingering snow showers, by definition. If you look at the radar, they are actually cellular in nature, but tightly packed and there is quite a bit of moisture to squeeze out of the lower atmosphere. These types of events are the most commonly under-forecast or mis-forecast short term events.

  13. Finally the edge of the dry air is making progress but it’ll still take until about noon to shut it off in the Boston area (a bit longer to the SE).

    I have to do a quick cleanup and make sure the walkway is not overly slippery because I’m taking mom to her bday party down the street this afternoon! The party was twice-postponed, but it happens today. Her bday was 11 days ago!

  16. Extremely rare for me to be paying more careful attention to the blog at this time of year, but I am, if briefly!

  17. Here in Amesbury, might be the heaviest 2 inches of snow I’ve had to remove. Had to use the snowblower. Mercy. Fun though.

  19. A nice surprise snow event to say the least. It seems we’ve seen a number of these so far this winter. ❄️ 🙂

    Not overpowering, just pretty landscaping.

  27. What fell this morning here in Woburn was pure feathers. Easy to move. What fell before melted into the wet ground and froze over grainy so it’s not that slippery. Kind of the best possible set-up in this case. Tomorrow it’ll be bit iffy with melt/freeze. But Monday’s daytime temps will wipe out the frozen stuff naturally, so that’s good for underfoot!

    The grainy-ice walkway will be fine for my mom (with help) to get to the car and back after, so the party is a go! 🙂

  28. Closing in on 2 inches now.

    What was initially a thick mist of ice pellets, graupel and some snow flakes is clearly all snow now and it’s steady, but it’s not a thick mist anymore, you can see the individual snow flakes with tiny space btwn them.

    2. I tell you Tom I was surprised & it snowed all day . I was out doing errands around pembroke , Hanover & Marshfield & definitely two inches . I just got home & the driveway was iced up pretty good , I think they will need salters out tonight . I’m off for a bit taking care of my wife & would love some more snow tomorrow night , todays system was perfect .

  34. Final total at Logan = 0.6” ❄️

    Total Boston snowfall to date = 14.5” ❄️

    JPD – more? or less? in your backyard? 🙂

      1. Not sure that is what TK is seeing. I’m south of 90

        “ . A period of snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches mainly from the I-90 belt northward, and a few snow/mix/rain showers to the south. ”

        1. Yes, now I see. You are south of I-90 but not by all that much imo. I actually thought you were right along if not a bit north. My mistake. Not really familiar with your part of the state. 🙂

          However you are very far inland compared to the Boston area. Worcester county generally gets decent snow totals. We’ll see what TK says later. 🙂

  37. 2021-22 = 54.0”
    2022-23 = 12.4”
    2023-24 = 9.8”
    2024-25 = 14.5”❄️ (to date)

    That’s the most snowfall in more than 3 years, if nothing else.

    2. They are stunning in the crisp clear winter sky. Thank you again. They are on the side of the house where I would not have seen them if you had not mentioned

  40. Though this is a weather blog I know people here are interested in whats going on in the oceans as well. the work that I was involved with down in the Caribbean continues to produce important information on not a pandemic on land but a pandemic that is happening in the ocean. A ciliate belonging to the Diadema antillarum scuticociliatosis that causes the disease DaSc that impacted the Diadema urchins in the Caribbean in 2022 & has since made its way to West Africa/Mediterranean and Indian Ocean. Our research has shown that it can live outside of the Urchins thus making it very easy for it to spread and can spread quickly. The urchins can be infected and die a very gruesome death within 48 hours. So far its only been the Diadema genus being impacted but the cilitate been found on many surfaces and likely been digested by other animals that eat the decaying urchins possibly leading to its spread, as well as boat ballast. the other option is that our warming oceans have increased the load in which they occur increasing its impact to the urchins. I fear its only a matter of time in which it makes it into the Pacific Ocean. Was seen in the Caribbean in 2022 and recently been found in the Indian ocean. Its ben tracked from Caribbean to Mediterranean to West Africa, Red Sea and now Indian Ocean. Its rather technical read

    https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v753/p19-35/

    1. Matt this a horribly disturbing. Thank you for sharing this and for the invaluable work you are doing. Is there anything we can do??

      1. There are
        1. Boaters commercial, leisure, etc need to be cleaned prior to going into new areas and keep boat ballast water from going into new areas without going through proper means of doing so.
        2. Divers need to keep their gear clean, wash between dives
        3. Decrease fishing pressure on invertebrates that filter these things out of the environment IE sea cucumbers, Annelids (sea worms) and crustaceans.
        4. Point source pollution, the epicenter seems to have been the USVI ( I was one of the first to see it) I thought it was just a local few urchins dying at that time, then about 2 weeks later a dive boat found a reef littered with urchins that were dying or already dead. It happened after a couple of heavy rainstorms,
        5. I hypothesis that pollution from fresh water runoff and drastic change in water temperature at the time had some type of reaction that super charged the ciliate population.
        6. Its likely this is what happened back in the 80s in the Caribbean and since the 80s there been localized events of varying sizes, but this is spreading to other oceans,
        7. We are not sure if this is the same thing that killed off the urchins in the Caribbean back in the 80s or not. What we do know is that the population was only at about 21% of the original population of urchins in the USVI which had the highest concentrations of them.
        8. Other areas in the Caribbean generally had less than 8%. Sad thing is that people including myself were talking about how there seemed to be decreasing algae on some of the reefs prior to the dieoff possibly linked to the increasing population and then the dieoff happened. This also wiped out 80% of the population of a bay in PR that was a 10 year restoration project involving the diademia trying to improve restoration techniques.
        9. The urchin crash of the 80s is linked to the change of coral dominated habitat in the Caribbean to Algae dominated, this is what has many in other oceans concerned about. This on top of climate change will likely change the base state of these ecosystems in the other oceans just as drastically as it did the Caribbean. This on top of increase coral disease and bleaching events.
        10. Everything can be linked back to our changing climate and we have a political climate with rich cronies making scientists take climate change out of documents and websites, and have killed many scientific projects by stalling money that was already allocated for researchers. There is a chance that reef response which is connected to the University I was previous at and I worked for that helped support this research and restoration by the way, will have to cut up to 50% of its staff due to funding. They paused money that was for a 6 year project that involved the entire ecosystem from the Shore (mangrove restoration) to deep sea coral restoration). The territorial government is giving a good amount of money to increase it for another 4 years but with the federal government money not flowing that’s at risk as well. This is the exact opposite of what should be happening, I am sick to my stomach with what I am seeing and there is nothing we can really do because of the current climate of the human world and natural (which is connected as you and most others here know) TK I know I went a little political on this but its hard sometimes to talk about our planet without getting into it a little

        1. wow. Great post. I will reread in the morning when my brain is awake. And this is absolutely not political. It is our planet and we are its stewards. We are blessed to have you both caring for our planet and helping us to understand

  42. Pattern is loaded, question rain or snow. But February looks very interesting. Ensembles have a lot of hits

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