1:17AM
A series of troughs and a cold front set off scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, providing quite a show for some people in southern NH, eastern MA, and even parts ofΒ RI. As of midnight, the final showers are exiting via far southeastern New England, and a dry air mass is settling in, but it’s only going to be here for a day, Wednesday – the pick of the week. Although plenty of bright sun and dry air will dominate, there will be a gusty breeze to go along with it.
But wait! Just when you are about to say “I could take days like this all summer…” the weather will throw a curve ball and we’ll see a rapid turn to unsettled weather Thursday that will then last into if not through the coming weekend. Thursday itself may become a volatile weather day, as there is potential for a couple rounds of strong thunderstorms. This may repeat in some areas on Friday and additional showery weather may linger through the weekend. The details of the unsettled stretch to end the week are unknown but will be worked out.
In the mean time…………….. forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gust.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increasing west to east overnight. Lows 61-66. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-80. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 78.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 75.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 74.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 84.
TK, thanks for update. Weds looking good! Would like to check in on Thurs about Fri night. Big family event on Fri. Rain not a problem during dinner, but still wrestling with “wine and hors d’Εuvre hour” — 6:30 -7:30 — outdoors or indoors?
I still do not understand a derecho. What causes it?
Think of a derecho this way. When you have a single thunderstorm that is moving forward and also has a strong downdraft spreading out ahead of it, you often see a strong wind gust as the storm arrives. Now take a mesoscale convective system (a large group of thunderstorms organized into what looks like one massive thunderstorm), and move it forward rapidly, along with its downdraft and outflow spreading out ahead of it, causing widespread strong wind, often damaging. That would be your derecho.
Thanks TK.
Today to me is a top 10 day. Looks like the thunderstorm index will be getting a nice workout after today. Storm Prediction Center has a good chunk of SNE in the slight risk tomorrow for severe weather. Currently thinking level 2 thunderstorm activity tomorrow but this could change.
I think we are top 100 and I agree. Spectacular day
Thanks TK !! Deep blue skies with a few mixed in fair weather cumulus clouds. Temps, now approaching 70F after morning lows in the low 50s. Guess its time to get ready for some rainy camping weather during the next couple of days.
Thanks TK! Perfect weather for a free concert at the Plymouth waterfront this evening.
Do they have them thru the summer? I wonder if my kids will take one in when we are in Humarock. It’s a great setting. Enjoy
do with the lack of sun i bet the severe weather will be lower than predicted also temps in the 70sas well as wind shear possibilities how would this set up for severe weather not to mention maritime air?
This north, northwest 10 -15mph with high gusts have been keeping temps around 73-76 all morning be lucky to hit 80 degrees today. but beutiful blue sky with not a cloud in sight.
The further east you are, the less likely severe weather will impact tomorrow.
Tomorrow night worries me. The dynamics are perfect for big time severe weather. Now to see if it all comes together.
Marine influence will not have great impact, nor will absence of daytime heating. This one will be largely atmospheric dynamics already in place, advecting in with system.
Interesting….funny how I just assumed that you need the heat and humidity to spark severe weather. Yet another reason I love being a part of this cool blog. Thanks TK!
We are glad to have you here. π
When you are worried and post that you are worried, then I’m very worried…
Well at this point I’m not hitting any panic buttons, because things still have to come together. Even all the ingredients in the kitchen do not always combine perfectly on the stove.
But talking to a colleague, our discussion makes me believe the potential is pretty high, especially for nocturnal stuff Thursday night and early Friday morning.
I had the same thought.
Sorry. That was a reply to Acemaster about having the same thought
In specific areas or pretty much through MA.
Haha, when you said “But wait! ” it made me laugh out loud.
Tonight is going to be in the upper 60’s, so does that warrant a jacket or something of the sort for me?
I’ve seen too many commercials in my time…
Moderate Risk for severe weather tomorrow for parts of SNE.
CT River Valley West thunderstorm index at a 3. East of there I am going with a 2. This could easily change.
If you tell us you are worried I’m really going to panic π
Thanks JJ
The ingredients are there for severe weather. The only thing that might help us if the clouds hold tough tomorrow. I don’t remember the last time a moderate risk was issued by the storm prediction center the day before here in SNE.
When I say level 3 that is widespread severe weather and level 2 is some severe weather. Hopefully the 3 won’t have to be extended east.
Is there a time frame?
I think we could see two rounds of storms one in the morning and another coming later in the afternoon and evening.
Thanks JJ.
Looking at 3 shots minimum of severe weather: Round 1 is with the warm front in the morning, and may be in the form of an MCS. Odds favor along and north of the Mass Pike for this round. Round 2 is along and south of the warm front in the afternoon, with the atmosphere loaded with juice for rapidly developing and eastward-moving multicellular storms with the potential for super cell development. Odds favor along and south of the Mass Pike for this round. Round 3 is nocturnal, sometime in the 9PM to 3AM time frame Thursday night / Friday morning. This could be a series of lines or storm clusters, with some potential for MCS development.
Derecho development is possible with the 1st and 3rd rounds.
It is impossible to pinpoint where and when the worst of the weather will be. This is something that needs to be followed hour by hour and sometimes down to the minute.
Working on an update for the blog now.
Oh yes, one important little details I left out. There is tornado potential, favoring eastern NY, western MA, and western CT.
I think parts of NY State and Pennsylvania with enough shear in the atmosphere could have an isolated tornado threat. I would not be surprised if that area is put under a tornado watch at some point during the day tomorrow.
I think western MA and CT may be included.
I said this earlier but I don’t remember the last time I saw the storm prediction center issue a moderate risk for severe weather the day before here in New England.
I guess i should not doubt my eyes when I look at models… I over looked the clouds killing most of the chance…. http://mattsouzaweather.wordpress.com
Your blog looks good matt! Just tried posting, not sure if it went through though, kinda froze on me. Just wanted to give u a heads up π
I’ll check on it.
Softball game tomorrow evening. Not sure I want to take any chances with not many places to take cover at and around the field.
Thinking same about macs golf. I’ve already threatened if I call he answers π
I think the mother nature is going to interfere with that tomorrow evening.
JJ, do you think we will make it up to a 3 in southeast New England for the action tomorrow evening and into the night or stay in the 2 range?
Looking over things I am concerned here in the poconos for tomorrow. Looks like things are lining up for some really nasty storms tomorrow afternoon.
TK any additional info you can provide would be appreciated. We are near Bushkill PA .
Hadi, hope things don’t get too nasty for you down in PA. That looks to be an area that will be in the action tomorrow. Stay safe! Let us know how you and your family are doing.
TK, I am hoping that things don’t get too nasty, but like AceMaster said when you are worried, we get worried too :). You are usually more on the conservative side!