The Week Ahead

54 Comments

11:39AM

With today’s (Sunday’s) weather pretty much set to be warm, muggy, but storm-free, it’s time to look ahead. Regarding today, however, we’ve seen much low cloudiness during the morning but breaks with sun coming out and going back in. As the sun heats the ground we’ve started to see these clouds make a transition into more cumulus type (puffy) clouds versus the stratus (flatter and less defined) that we had earlier across much of the RI, eastern MA, and southern NH area. A moderate breeze coming out of the south today is going to keep the atmosphere a little more stable than yesterday, and with the absence of a defined sea breeze boundary, getting showers and thunderstorms to form during the day today will be more difficult. The chance is not 0%, but it is low enough in my mind to leave them out of the forecast. If something does pop up during the day, I’ll update through comments underneath this post as well as on the WHW Facebook page.

Looking ahead…

A cold front will cross the region from west to east during the first half of Monday, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting severe storms as this front will be arriving at the time furthest away from maximum heating, and because of somewhat more stable air ahead of it than what would be seen if the wind were more from the southwest or west. Either way, some of the showers and storms may contain gusty winds and downpours with brief flash flooding possible. Hopefully most of this will take place before Monday morning commute time and impact will be minimal.

Once the front clears the region, a quick shot of cooler and drier air will move in for the end of the day Monday through Tuesday morning. The humidity may actually start to increase again later Tuesday but should not be too noticeable. This slow process of becoming more humid will continue Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday looks like a fair weather day as weak high pressure remains in control. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend, things are a little less certain. A trough of low pressure is expected to drop into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. The question is, does it sit there for a while, move eastward right through the Northeast, or something in between? Obviously many people have outdoor plans, and also the nights of the 11th and 12th are important for star gazers as it will be time for the Perseid Meteor Shower. It’s too far away to start talking about detailed sky conditions. I hold out hope that if the trough holds back in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast is strong enough, we may see a pure tropical flow from the south, and though this often is a pattern of scattered showers and storms, we also see periods of clearer, haze-free sky as the air is coming from the tropics versus the more polluted Midwest. Plenty of time to figure out what will happen next weekend.

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Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 78-89, coolest around the Islands and immediate south-facing coastal areas, warmest interior MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Wind S 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds arriving west to east by midnight, some lower clouds from the south over Cape Cod and the Islands. Showers and thunderstorms arriving west to east after midnight. Any storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rain with brief flash flooding. Very humid. Lows around 70. Wind S 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east morning. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Humid morning, less humid in the afternoon. Highs 80-85. Wind S shifting to W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Cooler and drier. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Dry morning, bit more humid later. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

54 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. i know its early but do you think aug 25th – labor day will be sunny/hot/humid. that is my vacation week.. 🙂

    1. I will put in a request for you, Gayle. But if it makes you feel any better, I think the 2nd half of August is going to be hotter than average, dominated by the Bermuda High.

  3. And Mother Nature doesn’t wait long to make me look like an idiot in short-term forecasting. No showers huh? Meanwhile, one tropical downpour later at Woburn MA… Needless to say, the atmosphere is unstable enough to pop showers in the forecast area. So forget the whole first part of that discussion above!

    1. Haha. She is a woman for a reason and it seems to this person with little weather knowledge that with heat and high dew points that we’ve had forecasting would be unpredictable at best

  5. Mon night should feel like a fall night, I think temps could get down to the mid 50’s in some normally cooler areas, I believe the storms move in a bit earlier, somewhere after 7ish tonight storms will be pushing into Worcester and after 8ish be in western/north/southwestern suburbs of Boston (495), have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. That’s the first line correct. The one in western MA now? Or will that arrive earlier and then the one in western NY arrives early.

  6. Nowadays we seem to always get just glancing blows of nice, dry air from Canada and full forces of HHH air fresh from the tropics. Back in the Don Kent days, it usually was the reverse to the point in which even the Mid-Atlantic states would get the occasional glancing blow of summer polar air from time to time. It seems our summers nationwide are much hotter than in the not too distant past and I am now becoming fearful of what our winters will be if last winter is an indication. 🙁

    Is it October yet? 😉

    1. I still recall long periods of HHH when I was a kid (1970s and 1980s). 1980, 1983, and 1988 were all notable for very long periods of hot weather in much of the country.

      1. I was a kid in the 1960’s and most of the 1970’s and especially earlier in my childhood, HHH didn’t seem to last quite as long as it does now. Maybe I am remembering wrong about that but you are absolutely correct about the 1980’s.

        1. I do not recall HHH back in the 50s and 60s either but as a kid may have had a lot more on my mind. No one had AC that’s for sure

          1. My oldest was born in summer of 1980 and it was HOT. We didn’t have AC either. 1988 was the summer that I’d like to forget. We joined framingham CC the next year. You’d think it was so husband could golf but in reality is was because I was determined we would not be without a pool to cool off in.

        2. I remember some real hot days in the 1970s but not sure how long the heatwaves went on for. My brother would know. 🙂

  9. Hearing some rumbles of thunder in the distance, I think some places could get alot of rain over the next 12-18hrs

  10. Looks like a line of showers moving east from the Berkshires – wonder if they will get stronger or weaker or stay the same?

    I don’t know – I remember many hot and actually dry summers as a child in the 50’s – with the exception of some hurricanes. As a child I lived on the South Shore – Quincy and then Holbrook. In Holbrook, I remember the south side of the house was particularly dry – grass was always brown. (and we watered it too)Our front yard, facing east was nice and green. When we moved to Framingham in the 60’s I think the weather got wetter – not sure. As a pre-teen and teen-ager my mind was on so many other things – but I do remember any big storms we had.

    So far, I am pretty happy with the summer we have had this year – some HHH, but I would have liked to see more cold fronts come in with some refreshing days in-between the HHH. With this HHH, it will be nice to have Autumn come. Yes, the days will be shorter – but then there is Thanksgiving and Christmas coming – and hopefully – Snow!!

    1. rainshine – I am willing to bet we had a lot of HHH but I just don’t remember them since I was too busy playing 🙂

  11. Its one of those days, if you spend even 5 minutes outside, then enter a place that has air conditioning, it feels momentarily like your walking into a freezer.

    Finally, the GFS long range has its obligatory strong tropical system approaching the east coast of the US from the central Atlantic about 10 to 14 days from now. 50/50 chance its not even anywhere on the next 0z run. 🙂

  13. OK – I know that a squall line can last for awhile – but usually after awhile it changes. Maybe into a bow echo – or individual storms or just diminish. But this year, at least on TWC they keep talking about “direchio” – I think that’s the right spelling. I think that means big wind. It seems this past spring and summer we have had a lot of these – moving literally through several states and holding together. Now – I don’t ever recall seeing those before, ‘though I could be mistaken. Is this a new thing? Has the weather pattern changed?

    1. Derechos have been around for a long time. They just get a lot more attention in the days of ‘cameras and media everywhere’. There were some very noteable derecho events in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s.

    2. Ok I’ll try. Then ignore my explanation once someone knowledgeable posts. It is the right term but from what I understand it’s a long area of straight line winds as opposes to the isolated straight line winds we usually see.

      My personal opinion is that we saw one a month or so ago and the name is now a buzz word TWC likes to use to hype.

      As I said please take that with a grain of salt

      1. I see TK was posting at same time. I did not mean they have not been around but that since one just caused considerable damage through mid Atlantic states and is suddenly familiar it will be repeated for the wow factor. I know …….. I can be a cynic

      2. You are right. Smaller, individual storms can produce strong straight-line winds. A derecho is basically the same thing associated with a mesoscale convective system, just a bigger group of storms. They are quite common, and very natural, a product of an atmosphere constantly seeking balance yet being thwarted by the sun.

  14. Some have TK with hotter than average temps last weeks of August due to Bermuda high and tom with a potential TS or more arriving in 10-14 days and Charlie with falling temps. Rather than worrynwhichnwont help, I’m simply hopping on Charlie’s boat

  15. The atmosphere is mocking me today.

    I am going to edit and carry forward a new update.

    Storms wanna make it into eastern MA before evening, and this is the unforeseen squall line. The one later tonight is still expected to do what I posted before.

    1. Looks as if you are getting worst of it. Did as I expected her so far. Heavy rain and thunder but already going from very dark to lighter and wind dying down

    1. Very fast mover. Already rain has nearly stopped. A bit of lingering thunder. High wind gust only 26

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