It’s August And We Know It

54 Comments

9:16PM

Nothing out of the ordinary to report in the weather department in southern New England. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Thursday, then move through the region by late Friday only to turn around and head back to the north as a warm front during Saturday. Finally another cold front from the west will sweep it all away by the end of the weekend. Positioning and timing of fronts will determine the weather at any given time and place during this period. Summarizing, most thunderstorm activity associated with this conglomeration of fronts will take place well north and west of Boston Thursday, still mostly north and west of Boston but a little closer to the city by later Friday, pushing south and east at night. A more general rain area may move across the region as the front returns northward early Saturday, finally followed by another storm threat west to east later Saturday. Leaning optimistic that everything gets out of here Saturday night and Sunday ends up as a rain-free day in the forecast area.

Additional typical August weather is on tap for the first half of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: High clouds depart leaving the sky clear. A few fog patches forming overnight. Humid. Lows 63-68. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms mainly well north and west of Boston (interior southern NH and north central MA). Humid. Highs 85-90. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Muggy. Lows 67-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms mostly Boston north and west in the afternoon, probably pushing south and east late day and evening. Humid. Highs 83-88. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with morning rain or showers ending southwest to northeast. Partly sunny with afternoon thunderstorms developing west to east. Low 66. High 82.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

54 thoughts on “It’s August And We Know It”

  1. Thanks TK. And PLEASE don’t ever worry about when you update. You have a full time job doing this blog alone. Never mind your actual full time job. This is a wonderful blog!

    2. I agree. Great job and we are happy to see the updates no matter when they occur. Thanks TK!

      By the way, were you being sarcastic on the last blog about the 18Z GFS run?

  2. Thanks TK.
    The biggest threat with any of these showers and storms that fire is the heavy rainfall and lightning. I would not rule out strong to locally severe storms across the interior but this look more like a heavy rain threat than a severe threat at the moment.

  3. Thanks TK for the update. I would like to do some tax-free shopping on Saturday, can you give me a few “dry” hours in between the morning showers and the afternoon thunderstorms? What are the best times? Thanks in advance.

    1. I could see the first half of the afternoon being dry (rain-free but probably muggy as heck).

        1. Dylan this morning said tomorrow morning rain – I had the impression it could be the heaviest – but that’s just one station. She also said sun coming out early afternoon was possible but it would fuel the storms later. Is your party in the morning or afternoon??

  4. If we go by the 18z GFS, we will be lucky to pick up a half inch of rain for the entire event. It will probably be the case for those areas that don’t see the storms in the afternoon.

  5. Is it just me or was something strange going on with the NOAA NAO charts this week? I recall looking at it this week and it was showing neutral being observed each day and I looked today and it is negative and the outlook is also mostly negative, when the outlook somewhat neutral or postive in the coming weeks..

  6. That tropical system is getting better organized and it looks like it could be a tropical depression or even a tropical storm by Thu, it’s gonna be the G storm 🙂

  7. Acemaster If I am not mistaken you live in the Easton area and golf as well. Did you see the report about EEE reaching a critical level around Hockamock Swamp in Easton?

    1. I did Vicki. Starting to worry me a bit. I’ve only lived in Easton for less than a year so I don’t know where this swamp is but I hope its not close. I always use bug spray when I’m outside but its still not 100% effective. And I heard about the first confirmed case of human EEE in MA. I heard a low flying plane go by last night around 8pm that I bet was a 2nd spraying cuz I never hear planes. Hopefully that rids them for good.

      1. I think they believe the person with EEE may have gotten it while in the mid-Atlantic states. Not that it makes a difference. The disease terrifies me. I also heard they were spraying a second time in the area. This is when I start hoping for the first couple of killing frosts to be early.

  8. Vicki I wouldn’t worry about any hurricanes hitting here, as of now there all pressed to move west into the gulf of Mexico 🙂

    1. I’m really not worried. Sadly, it wasn’t Irene that made things nasty. She was fun to track. It was actually the owner of the house who made it miserable and stressful. I hate stress on vacation 🙂

  9. Last I checked 70% chance for that wave to develop. When a tropical system gets to the Bahammas and a trough has the opportunity to pick it up and send it up the coast is when I pay attention.
    Unsettled the weather word tomorrow and Saturday. I won’t rain all day and I am more concerned about the heavy rain potential with the airmass so humid than a severe threat. With that said I would not rule out places seeing a strong to locally severe storm.

  11. I still believe summer is on its last leg, actually I feel rather confident that in just a couple weeks nights will be in the 50’s on a consistent basis, this makes me happy, if your a summer junkie get out an enjoy while u still have time 🙂

    1. you crack me up. summer on its last leg. when we have a cold/ snowy winter
      this year, dont wish for summer because now its here and you keep wishing it away.

      2. In a couple weeks u will be waking up and it’s gonna start feeling more like early fall 🙂

        1. There is nothing like waking up nice and warm but having the air cool and crisp. Not wishing anything away btw – just saying I love it.

  13. It looks like the severe storms are remaining to the west and southwest of SNE. There is a chance far western parts of CT and MA could see a strong thunderstorm but to me the heavy activity looks to remain west of SNE.

  15. Its 7 to 10 days out, but today’s 12z EURO has a strong cold front dropping out of central Canada, into the upper midwest. The 0C 850 mb isotherm briefly visits northern Minnesota (maybe highs in the 50s in International Falls)…….the northeast mostly remains east of the front in the warm air and the cool airmass begins to moderate as it approaches the eastern Great Lakes. Just one run, but will be interesting to see if there’s any consistency with this in the coming days.

  16. Vicki your right about some of these storms not moving fast. The one just over the CT and MA border which has a warning is only going at 5 mph to the east and the one up in parts of New Hampshire into Maine is stationary which is not good because that could lead to ponding on the roads. Another important note that cell is showing signs of weak rotation and when you read that in the statement like I did you need to watch that like a hawk if you are in that area.

    1. Oh my. I just got home. Can I assume it moved on. I see something west of here but think it will pass more north of me. Rainshine may get it though

  18. It should begin to weaken.
    Tomorrow it looks like west of the CT River Valley will be the area for strong to possibly severe storms. This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak and its really the heavy rain with so much humidity in place that is the big story.

  19. i was dump today i actually tried to put pressure on my ankle. i guess not yet. went in the pool that was fine walking up the deck stairs was a different story. 🙁

  20. Thanks JJ. The Area approaching here fizzled too.

    Matt I can say this because is would have done the same thing when younger. Who am I kidding, I’d probably do it now. But the more you overdo the longer the healing. Sorry. That’s the mom in me speaking 🙂

    1. yeah my mom was not happy with me said i was stupid to get out of the pool under my own power.

      1. Just love preseason football because it means fall is not that far away!
        Pats will be fine. The Red Sox don’t have much hope for getting one of those wild card spots. Problems with the
        pitching and the injuries.

  23. See we got a new depression forecasted to become Gordon and track west and get into the Carribbean and another wave off Africa 30% chance of developing. Tropics are becoming active!

    1. I’m curious for what your new blog title will be.
      First time using the MOS guidance, I must say it’s very useful, although it doesn’t always update with the original model package.

      1. MOS is good guidance, though it does have its limitations, and it doesn’t just grow on the north side of the computer. 😛

        Blog is updated…

Comments are closed.