We’re Getting Muggied

118 Comments

10:28PM

Upper level low pressure will drop into the Great Lakes and spin around for a few days before lifting out into Canada late in the weekend. High pressure will hold strong in the western Atlantic. A cold front will settle across southern New England Friday then try to come back as a warm front Saturday, with a final front arriving from the west Saturday night into Sunday. The movement of this final front will determine Sunday’s weather, but suffice it to say that the next 3 days will feature unsettled weather with episodes of showers and thunderstorms and tropical humidity. The question is how much dry air from the west arrives during Sunday.

Perseid Meteor Shower: Meteors are visible, weather-permitting, during the overnight hours this weekend, with Saturday night being the peak and Sunday night a close second. The problem may be cloud cover. If we get lucky, some clear sky areas will work in at just the right time, so that some of the meteors will be visible. The best time to view, if the sky cooperates, will be between midnight and dawn Saturday night/Sunday morning and again Sunday night/Monday morning.  Let’s hope for a few breaks.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy but partly cloudy episodes possible. Occasional showers and thunderstorms, not raining all the time. Wettest period is likely Friday night into early Saturday morning. Tropical humidity. Highs 76-83. Lows 63-68. Winds S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Additional showers and thunderstorms, ending west to east. Still humid. Highs 80-85. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 64. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 63. High 81.

118 thoughts on “We’re Getting Muggied”

  2. Thanks tk, I think Gordon eventually goes into the gulf, but the H storm behind that has my concern, any thoughts?

    1. Well Gordon and Gulf both begin with G, so maybe!

      Seriously… I’m not really sure. One thing I do know is that it doesn’t look like anything threatens the East Coast during the next 2 weeks.

  3. Charlie, I would say the lows bouncing off the coast of Africa might take the Ernesto track if they even make it that far. Of course some of these are 10-14 days away, so who knows.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    Well on another note, I watched the Pats. I realize it’s preseason but nice to get a win despite some of the most botched up ragged play I have seen in a while.

    1. They were just tricking the competition……………….or that’s what I kept telling myself. It sure was good to see them play!

      And I think Dylan D has been reading your comments here JJ. She commented multiple times this morning that there may be tropical downpours because it’s so humid and the air is saturated. You’ve been saying that for days.

    2. i was actually impressed with the Defense. not so much with the offense expecially the offensive line

  4. Thanks TK
    TD 7 not looking to healty to right now and looks to be figthing dry air which tropical systems don’t like.
    Back here storm prediction center has most of SNE in a slight risk for severe weather today. I don’t see a widespread severe weather event and the cloud cover as long as it stays in place should lower the severe threat. It will be interesting to see what the SPC says when they update this around 9AM. Thunderstorm Index a 1 areas east of Worcester and a 2 west of Worcester since to me that is the area where locally severe storm could pop.

  5. Thanks TK! Leaving on our drive to Toronto this morning. Hope to be there by early evening, if I don’t encounter a bunch of heavy rain on the way!

  10. Were going to get wet before the day is out. Heavy rain and vivid lightning look to be the big threats with these showers and storms. Won’t rule out a strong to locally severe storm but to me the cloud cover should keep the severe the threat low for us.

    1. I hope the south shore gets some worthwhile rain. The lawns are starting to brown and I’m struggling to remember the last time it rained.

      1. agreed – our front lawn is toast and I’m refusing to spend the money it would take to water it enough. It’s an awful drought nationwide.

  11. Climate data thru August 9th (courtesy of Taunton NWS climate section). I think the data shows well the seabreeze effect of keeping the coastal areas cooler, however, one thing the temp anomolies dont show is the humidity and though cooler, its been very uncomfortable near the coast due to the humidity.

    Logan : +3.4F Logan and Providence each with 1 (90F) day
    Providence : +2.6F
    Hartford : +4.8F with 5 (90F) days
    Worcester : +5.1F

  12. Thanks, TK.

    Sun has been out quite a bit in Sudbury a good part of the morning, so far, albeit through a milky sky. I don’t want any severe weather but some heavy rains would be welcome – as long as there isn’t any major flooding.

    Summer has been satisfactory for me, weather-wise. I feel we have had plenty of HHH and soon I am ready to move on to the cool and brisk days of fall. The Patriots yesterday was a nice reminder that fall is not that far behind! 🙂 However, I do believe we still have more HHH days left – and the potential for tropical systems. I just hope fall and winter are more “normal” this year.

    1. Hi rainshine. I feel as if we have had an old fashioned spring and summer. Hears hoping it continues to winter

  13. Looking at doppler radar – that’s a lot of rain in NY state – already has moved into western MA.

  14. Not seeing severe thunderstorm warnings with that area of rain but noticing a couple strong thunderstorms here and there.
    Been marine warnings just off the jersey shore with these thunderstorms. This area moving in might help us out if anything fires later because if the clouds remain tough it will be tough for the atmosphere to further destabilze.

  15. I hope that there will be a few hours of dryness (no rain) during Saturday afternoon so I can get some shopping done. Am I the only one here that will be taking advantage of the sales tax holiday? So far I seem to be the only one to mention it.

    Also I like the title of this blog! Good one TK. 🙂

    1. Other than a portable grill to take on vacation, I don’t have anything I need. I really, really want an induction stove/oven but they are painfully expensive and even then it would only save me a bit more than $150

  16. Why do the lines of thunderstorms that seems to form in W Mass usually seem to
    Dissipate well before reaching the coast? Is it the temperature? Topography? Always wondered about this…..

        1. Also…..southeast New England and east coastal New England tend to be furthest away from the best dynamics (what creates lift in the atmosphere that helps form the storms), as this time of year, most lows travel north of the New England area.

          This current system is unusual for this time of year and should be able to get atmospheric lift to the coastline, resulting in better chances for rain and thundershowers.

    1. And on the radar, if you look just south of that cell on Long Island, there almost appears to be a mini low surrounded three quarters of the way with intense thunderstorms. Either that, or it could be a bow echo.

  18. Do you think there will be thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, or mostly rain?

    And yes, I am STILL laughing at your blog title 😛

  19. Just saw our new neibors, They had had these robe things on and they were talking to each other and no clue what they are saying. I hope they know english so i can say hi to them. 🙂 Hope they are not mean.

    1. I always enjoy meeting new neighbors. And maybe you can learn their native language too. Do they have kids your age or don’t you know yet?

      1. they have two kids that look to be around my brothers age. but i have no clue if they have older children as well. One of the ladies looked at me and pointed and then the guy and the guy looked angry.

  21. Tom or John or Coastal – do you have a favorite station for wunderground that would be closest to the coast. I want to set it up before we leave. I found one that says Marshfield’s favorite turnaround in Brant Rock – whatever that means. I was hoping there’d be on coast guard hill.

    I also talked to the Scituate Fire Chief about fires on the beach. He was incredibly nice. Said as long as it’s a cooking fire (we don’t have to stand over it cooking) and is contained in a fire pit or with rocks, go right ahead. No permit needed. Just if someone asks us to put it out, we have to. We’d do that anyway.

  22. Thanks for your answers . I’m a daily reader here but must
    Admit I don’t have enough knowledge about the weather to
    Comment with any regularity. Enjoy all your discussions though 🙂

    1. oh heavens – I have no knowledge but comment constantly. Everyone here is really nice so please do not hesitate to ask questions AND participate in the discussion. We’d love to get to know you!

  23. Looks as if North may have had to drive through some of the mess headed this way on his trip to Toronto. I’m not sure what route he takes but….

      1. Vicki, I think the radar shows the warnings. To see the watch, just google Taunton National Weather Service and when you call up the site, all the region in yellow is the watch area.

        1. Thank you so much – I found it – I think I went into Mom panic mode and heard warning instead of watch since son as I said is headed to vineyard tonight – and has to drive from Boston to Woods Hole

          1. If he could ever wait til about 7:30pm or 8pm, I think this area may be passed that Boston to Woods Hill area. Of course, probably dependent on how long the ferries run til.

  25. Tornado Warning for eastern parts of Long Island and it looks like a little notch with a severe thunderstorm warning for areas east of New Haven CT. The other big story is the heavy rain with all the humidity out there.

  26. I’m not seeing it anywhere and don’t know if it includes just south shore, cape and islands or what – if someone could let me know I’d appreciate it – thanks

    son is also supposed to head to vineyard tonight

    1. I hope someone with a lot more experience than I have answers but I’m not seeing anything severe on the radar just yet – just called husband and told him to head home now. I can’t reach a couple of my kids either.

    2. In watching some of the weather updates, the idea seems to be that a few storms within this big rain area have been showing some rotation on radar down near Long Island and southern CT. I dont believe there’s been any reports of tornadoes.

  28. Maybe about 100 to 150 miles south of easternmost Long Island, looks to be some very intense storms. They seem to be more easily seen from the NYC radar.

    Just started to rain in Marshfield.

  29. This just proves, I guess, that you don’t need a hot afternoon with lots of sun to have tornadoes develop. I used to think that when I was younger. But all this humidity, even with the cloudy skies and the temps. not that hot can still produce tornadoes. Watching Matt Noyes talking about tornado warning in CT right now.

    2. its just been a steady rain here for the past hour and a half i think the severe threat is done for my area might have some thunderstorms but not severe

      1. It’s amazing to see, must be a ton of wind in that. Barry Burbank just tweeted somewhere in that signature had a gust to 100 MPH.
        His tweet…
        S. Glastonbury, CT… estimated wind to 100 mph… many trees down… potential tornado on the ground there!

  32. Under Tornado Warning here in Manchester CT. Lots of heavy rain and wind – lights flickering – but no tornado spotted. Center of tornado per NWS was supposed to have passed about 3 miles east of us. I haven’t heard of any touchdowns though.

    There has been major street flooding in New Haven.

  33. massive hook formation just northeast of hartford ct on radar one of the most defined . would not be surprised if there are tornado reports northeast of hartford

  34. Just my opinion….for as nasty looking a storm on the radar and hearing some of the reports Matt Noyes is giving, The Weather Channel has really dropped the ball with virtually no live, up to date coverage on this storm.

    2. because the do not care really about new england they care about all the other areas more . expecially the plains

  35. A TRAIN OF THOUGHT IS TO TREAT THE ONSHORE BANDING SIMILAR TO
    TROPICAL RAINBANDS COMING ASHORE AHEAD OF A LAND FALLING
    HURRICANE. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE SYS INTERACTING WITH
    FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TOPOGRAPHY NETS BRIEF ISOLATED SPIN UPS.

    THE ANTICIPATION WITH THE LATEST TORNADO WATCH IS THAT THE E
    COASTAL PLAIN WHICH HAS SEEN LITTLE RAIN…BUT REGISTERS TEMPS
    INTO THE LOW 80S WITH LOW 70 DWPTS…IS A PRIME ENVIRONMENT OF
    INSTABILITY. COUPLED WITH THE LOW-MID LVL STRONG SHEAR ASSOC WITH
    ONSHORE SHRTWV DISTURBANCE…AND THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
    BRIEF ISOLATED SPIN-UPS.

    THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE RGN AROUND 8 PM. FLOODING
    THREATS STILL PERSIST AS OUTLINE IN THE 2 PM DISCUSSION BELOW.

    PRIOR DISCUSSION…

  38. Anticipating torrential rains on the south shore soon. Watching those echoes in the Providence to Taunton area.

  39. Barry said they may be breaking up. Does anyone know what the ferry service does. Sons ferry is at 9:45. I’d be surprised I’d they run the ferries even in a watch

  40. Getting word now lots of trees and power lines down from the storm here in parts of the state. CL&P says 11,000 without power. We had some pretty crazy wind for awhile in Manchester – lots of branches down but never lost power. The hook on the radar went right over us. Interestingly, there was no thunder or lightning at all with this storm. Sun starting to pop out now.

    1. Thanks Mark. BB says the tornado is still in ground. I saw some pictures of your area. Not trees but flooding.

  41. We have been having light -moderate occasionally heavy rain in Sudbury all along. We had one clap of thunder about an hour ago.

    What are the chances of this being a repeat tomorrow of this?

  44. That spin or rotation, most serious when it was just east of Hartford, is still noticeable on the radar. It has traveled a long way.

    1. Everything seems pretty quiet now EXCEPT down your way

      Son taking ferry to vineyard in morning. I am a happy mom right now. Hope everyone else is safe

      1. Good !! Actually seeing a few breaks directly overhead. The low clouds are flying by from south to north !

  45. 1 inch rain here in a short period. Where is Charlie. Heard bad flooding in Taunton area. I am not sure but thought that was by him.

  47. Thanks for the obs everybody.

    To Mark: Glad you are safe. My brother and his family live in Manchester CT. I haven’t talked to him yet but I’ll try to find out if there is any damage in his area.

    1. Thanks. The worst of the damage appears to have been just southeast of Manchester in Glastonbury. Many trees down and people without power there. NWS is going to survey the damage tomorrow. When I got home in Coventry, street near me was closed with a tree down on the power line. Thankfully we have power back here now.

  48. Got 1.33 inches of rain in about 1 hr, the heaviest part went just south and east of my area, Taunton, Rehoboth, Norton got closer to 2 inches or more 🙂

    1. Hi Vicki… I am watching the golf. Tough day with the winds blowing. Tiger tied for the lead going into the weekend
      and will see if he captures his 1st major since the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.

  55. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The Perseid showers are tiny bits of debris from which comet?

    A. Swift-Tuttle
    B. Hale-Bopp
    C. Temple
    D. Halley

  56. The severe weather threat much lower today than yesterday. With that said I would not be surprised to see some strong thunderstorms pop across SNE. Biggest threat again heavy rainfall with the tropical humidity in place.
    A.

Comments are closed.