Showery Into Wednesday Then Better

76 Comments

1:57AM

A frontal boundary draped across southern New England and a couple areas of low pressure waves  moving along it will trigger episodes of showers and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday. Some of this moisture was once associated with Hurricane Isaac, but as stated before, Isaac itself is no longer an identifiable entity.  It looks like 1 to 2 inches of rain and even locally heavier may tape place in some areas through Wednesday, with the focus for the heaviest amounts probably in northern Middlesex and Essex Counties of MA and across southern NH. A few heavy amounts to the south cannot be ruled out. A final cold front will come along later Thursday and may set off an additional shower or storm but this front looks like it may not produce much. High pressure will bring drier but still warm and fair weather on Friday. A slight cool-down will take place over the weekend. Leslie, forecast to be a hurricane, will be watched offshore but for now it appears that the only threat from this system will be large waves and ocean swells with increasing threat for rip currents on the beaches by later in the weekend.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 69-74. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Heaviest rain north and west of Boston but some downpours may occur in any area. Very humid. Lows 64-69. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours. Heaviest activity may start out north and west of Boston but may finally push south and east during the day before activity tapers off somewhat toward evening. Very humid. Highs in the 70s but may approach 80 in any areas that sun pops out. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms late. Low 66. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 77.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 75.

76 thoughts on “Showery Into Wednesday Then Better”

  1. Thanks TK ! Under 13 hrs of sunlight at Boston’s latitude today (12:59).

    Having just peeked at Logan, the temp departures for June-August 2011 vs. June-August 2012 are remarkably similar. Not that there’s anything to conclude or project from that weatherwise.

  3. Fall Foliage season is only weeks away here in New England. I predict the leaves will start their change a lot earlier than we have experienced the last two years, and only slightly earlier than normal. I think most leaves will be off the tree’s by Halloween, with the exemption of all the oak’s around my house. They don’t fall until May 🙂

    Enjoy your day!

  4. The models have been hinting at a double barrel feature for Leslie when it gets closer. I’m not so sure what that will mean.

  5. Coastal I agree that it will much earlier this year but I am sure we will hear from Charlie about how late they will be 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki – I shut off my computer during the aft. yesterday so just read about your car. So sorry about that but thank goodness no one was hurt – that is the main thing.

    It’s a grey morning and I could hear the rain coming down around 4 or 5 a.m. It will be interesting to see if/how Leslie affects us.

  7. TK i saw your comment from yesterday on the other blog I saw that as well on facebook. i would rather hear what they have to say for fall. than winter right now. and i am thinking normal to above precipitation and near normal temps. to slightly below.with our first mix mess being late in november. 😉 with our first wide spread frost late october. lets see if i am right. im guessing here. 😉 probably dead wrong but worth a shot . what does others think.

    1. I’m inclined to agree generally. Often hard to call frosts. I’ll take a stab and say October 20.

  8. Good morning and we are seeing some of the weaker trees here change but they are early indicators every year so don’t really predict much. I did post last week that a friend in Lake Placid area said they are already changing and it is definitely early for them.

    Rainshine – thanks – this car seems to have a bulls eye hidden on it somewhere. Three times and it should be retired I think 🙂

    How is your kitty? My memory was apparently on vacation and I have forgotten her name? Cara??

    1. Thanks for asking about our kitty. Yes, her name is Cara. She is fine – actually, she has made our home thoroughly her home! Cara has her own place in every room in our house. She also loves to jump. I have found her on top of the refrigerator in the middle of the night. She is a relatively big cat – 14 lbs. at the vet. 2 wks. ago. The vet says she is not overweight, she is just a big cat. She is 6 yrs. old but we still have to watch how much she eats. That’s hard, ’cause she loves to eat and would open the refrigerator and make her own meals if she could! 🙂 Glad you had a good vacation and the weather cooperated. Kinda lousy about the car, ‘though. We’re off to do errands soon – have a great day!

      2. my cat is tall and muscle with no fat at all. one year old. and loves to jump and play with toys and loves to tray and trip me. expecially on the stairs. we have our thing going on at night as well . i head up the stairs he charges. up with me. he goes on my bed i bring a toy with me and i play with him for about a half hour or so and then i watch tv and he sleeps next to me. then he leaves

        1. That’s great, matt! I know what you mean. Our cat sleeps at the foot of our bed most of the night. Around 4 or 5 in the morning she does her “cat thing” and runs around and jumps and plays with her toys. I get a kick out of that – she is being a typical cat! I play with our cat, too. She has a bunch of toys but her favorite is this long thing like a furry snake on a stick. I wave it around – gives both of us good exercise! 🙂

              1. Our cats like the 4 to 5 am window too.sometimes they are going so crazy they knock things over. I wish they had the same body clock as us!

  9. Thanks TK
    At least the unsettled weather is during the week and not on the weekend. Leslie more of a concern for Bermuda than us although there could be some good wave action here.

    1. Thanks coastal, great read! Sounds like all things need to line up perfectly for this to happen. But if the past few years weatherwise has taught us anything, we should never let our guard down.

    2. 00Z EURO still digs that trough but the placement of the upper low isnt quite as far south as the 12Z run from yesterday

  13. Oooh – just saw tropical update on TWC and according to I think they said Euro model, a possiblity, just a possibility of Leslie coming very close to New England. My opinion? Kind of in the middle – big surf and rip currents and clouds off to the south. Cape Cod may see more clouds and even a few showers. But, that’s just my gut feeling. I could be wrong.

  14. The Euro was right with tracking Issac to the west. I think when all is said and no done no direct hit here in New England but a system that comes close enough to kick up the waves.

  15. About Leslie.

    I copied this from huricane.com, a site I frequent. This explains my thoughts in my post above better than I could explain it myself.

    “In the longer range, the Euro continues its westward forecast for Leslie, taking it very close to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Any further west and we could be looking at a possible brush with portions of New England as well. Much of this will have to do with the way a trough is supposed to develop in the Tennessee Valley this weekend and beyond. If it is weaker or digs in farther west, even by a little, then the high pressure area over the western Atlantic can build in more and push Leslie a degree or two of longitude west.”

  19. Henry Margusity always looks at the September pattern to determine the upcoming winter pattern. He will put out his 2012-2013 winter outlook in early October.

    Wanna bet it will be exactly the same as AccuWeather put out last month? 😉

  22. Just finished a very long drive to and from Minnesota (drove my daughter to college). Broke up the trip into manageable portions to make it interesting. Love the people in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Weather-wise, it’s still very hot out there. And parched. The corn looked devastated throughout most of the Midwestern states I drove through (Indiana being the exception, but that’s only because of some sophisticated irrigation systems – look like monster lawn sprinklers). They got some rain from Isaac, but way too late to do any good. Timing is everything. Other crops have been affected by the drought, too. Food prices will go up soon as a result. The Russian interior has also experienced a prolonged drought and very high temperatures. There could be some global repercussions, especially in developing nations that depend on grains as their staple diet. Affluent nations can generally cope with higher prices, but poor nations don’t have any reserves.

    1. For years I forecast the weather and crop prospects for that region as well as other crop areas around the world. You talking about it brings back memories. Loved that job.

      Best of luck to your daughter!

  23. So much for rain holding off till tonight. Its been raining in Boston most of the day. Tk does this mean less rain now for Boston, and faster clearing for tomorrow.

    1. No. It means that the computers, except the NAM, underforecast the rain today. I also underforecast it for the southeastern part of the state.

  24. 12Z EURO has the front further east and progressive thus in this run anyways taking Leslie along with it and OTS

  25. OMG OMG OMG OMG the GFS has an East Coast Hurricane at 384 hours! Sound the alarms! Head for the hills! Batten the hatches! Alert the government!

    The previous statement is partly true but 99.9% sarcastic. Just having some fun. 🙂

  26. The 12z Euro is out and is starting to come around to clearer “thinking” of keeping Leslie further east once it starts to move around the western side of the ridge, then accelerating it rapidly Tuesday-Wednesday of next week just after it gets by southern New England’s latitude several hundred miles to the east.

    I maintain the idea that Leslie will be near the latitude of southern Greenland by the end of the day Wednesday (September 12).

    1. I don’t wish for a hurricane but since it’s out of my control should there be one it’s interesting to track

  27. Looks like the EURO has corrected itself on the 12z run, no more cut off low, and Leslie gets shot up to Greenland in a hurry.

  28. I’ve been noticing that infamous blue line slipping ever so slightly south the last several weeks of model viewing.

    Still 2 1/2 months a way 🙂

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F04%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  32. It was weird today. I was walking in the rain, but I couldn’t really feel it. And it was raining a considerable amount. And my hair was definitely frizzed with rain…

  35. This is a quote from I believe an amateur forecaster on another blog. It gave me a nice chuckle.

    “Watching a left behind piece of Isaac drop SW into the gulf. This could be a player in the path of Leslie in the Atlantic.”

    Wow.

  36. When it comes to Leslie, the models had a few too many Labor Day beers, but seem to be getting past their hangover.

  37. No rain in Dennis all day A little drizzle this a.m. but no rain. Some peaks of sun and patches of blue. All in all not a bad day on the cape.

    1. The focus area was from Boston to RI. The Cape escaped most of it, as you observed. The NAM forecast that pretty well.

  38. Leslie’s forward speed has dropped to a couple of miles per hour.

    Does anyone have a forecast as to when the rain will be out of here tomorrow?

    1. I don’t think the threat really ever ends during Wednesday. The highest probability of most widespread activity will be morning through mid afternoon, but we will run risk of additional showers any time through evening.

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