Here & There / There & Here

86 Comments

2:55AM

Here & There: That will be the overall theme of showers the remainder of this week. Though more widespread activity will take place into this afternoon as a good slug of tropical moisture traverses the region along a frontal boundary. Less shower threat but still some spotty activity may occur with one additional front Thursday and a warming air mass on Friday, and then some additional showers and storms can develop this coming weekend with yet another disturbance moving in.

There & Here: Way out there, i.e., the Atlantic, will be Leslie, strengthening to a hurricane, threatening Bermuda, then moving more to the north passing several hundred miles east of New England by the beginning of next week. But she will send big ocean swells and rough surf here, i.e., to the New England Coast, pretty much from today through the first of next week.  Watch for some minor beach erosion and flooding in areas prone to it. Rip currents will also increase at some beaches, so be aware of that if you plan to visit a beach.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, most numerous through early afternoon then becoming more scattered. Tropical humidity. Highs in the 70s but may reach 80 in a few locations. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Still humid. Lows 62-67. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid again. Highs 78-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 80.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 61. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 72.

86 thoughts on “Here & There / There & Here”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Looking at the obs and our windows, I am thinking its steam city outside. The temps have been going up slowly overnight.

    1. Oh you are a true fan……..they are on my angry list right now 🙂

      The good news is football starts tonight and I’m already planning munchies for the game on Sunday.

  6. 73F with 73 DP – ugh and ugh again. On and off heavy rain earlier with thunder/lightening embedded. Right no I’m seeing one patch of blue sky which will fill in probably before I finish typing this!

  7. Hey Scott,
    I hope your transition to college life is going well. I was wondering if you could provide a fall foliage report on your Facebook Weather Page. Maybe take a picture of the view from the same spot every other day or so. Just me but I think the would be pretty cool to track the timing of the foliage there for the next 4 years and compare year to year.

  8. We had very heavy rain here around 6 a.m. or so. Didn’t hear any thunder, ‘though. Right now it’s just mostly cloudy – very humid out. Sky has been very pretty – almost tropical. Patches of blue amidst fast-moving clouds moving from north-northwest towards southeast.

    2. The thunder we had was odd, rainshine. It was more embedded in the system rather than an actual thunderstorm if that makes any sense. Just a few loud rumbles – the kind that goes on and on.

      1. I’ve experienced storms (or systems) like that before, too. Sun is trying to come out now. I have to take my husband to an eye appt. in Waltham this aft. Hope we don’t get any consistent heavy rain.

  9. Wow – when I just tried to post “Thanks, TK” I got a little message that said “Slow down, you are posting too fast.” Anyone ever get that before?

    1. I get those all of the time if I follow up a longer post with a short one. Mac says if my brain would slow down I’d actually know what I’m saying/thinking 🙂

      And I second rainshine, TK – thank you!!!

  12. first day of classes done. had bio from 830-920am
    Bio 830-920am mondays wednesday and fridays
    labs 12-2 pm fridays
    english/social tuesdays and thursdays 9am -1045.
    math 130-245
    then marching band at 530pm to 9pm monday wednesday and friday.

      1. yeah it should be interesting fridays. and the fact that labs are do the following monday it barely gives me time

  13. Thanks TK!!! Kind of a yucky day for a birthday! Guess we will have to celebrate indoors at a local watering hole!!!

      1. Aw…thank you all. I guess a nice drink at an outdoor bar at the Plymouth waterfront won’t be happening today. Lots of thunder and rain here today.

  16. I think I’d rather it be 95F with a manageable dewpoint in the 50s than this stuff. Just gets into the school hallways and yuck !

  17. With Leslie being as far east as it is likely to be on its closest pass, I believe one thing that may happen is the trough to our west will be further east, and therefore the next update will probably feature a speeding-up of timing of unsettled weather. That is, Monday’s “numerous” may become Sunday’s “numerous”, Sunday’s “scattered” may become Saturday’s “scattered”, etc. Looking it over now. Updating later.

  18. I’m reading on the Taunton discussion about “a major flood event in the Fall River area of SE Mass.” I think Charlie may be from down that aways….hopefully he did not get too much of an impact.

    1. One area of the forecast that I really missed was the region of heaviest rain. I was sure it’d be north, and it was south of Boston.

      A friend and former coworker of mine (I will not mention a name or exact location for the sake of privacy, but I will say it is in RI) is dealing with a significant flood in his neighborhood, which has arrived in the form of a flowing river, due to a change in the pitch of a nearby road on a hill that was just repaved. The water now flows into the yards freely when it used to drain the other way into the woods.

      I think somebody dropped the ball on the planning there.

        2. I think Charlie bought Simon Bar Sinister’s Weather Machine at a yard sale somewhere. 🙂

          (Underdog cartoon joke for those who have no idea what I mean.)

          1. Hahahaha. I agree I’ve said a few times here I think he has a rain bullseye on his area.

            Hmmm that gives me an idea. I’m taking bids for the snow bullseye. I’ll start with $10.00

    1. Above normal. Ohhhhhhh Charlie will not be happy with that. Me either. I’m in fall mode now. I want the ACs off and the windows open…….please 😉

            1. For the record, I am not so sure that Fall will end up warmer than normal when it’s all done.

  20. Completely random thought and it may be a bit above my knowledge ability.

    Just looking at the NAO and how its behaved the last few months, but it almost looks like a not to smooth sine wave (like if you shake the garden hose and that up and down motion flows through the hose). Anyhow……the high points are slowly reaching into the more positive NAO and the low points arent getting as negative.

    Wondering if this is a pattern for the next few months and that the northern hemisphere NAO will be predominately neutral or positive with very little negative NAO.

    1. You may be onto something. But NAO being only one factor of many that determine the pattern, we’ll see what the result is when combined with other things.

    2. Neat observation. We have not been this positive for a while, so we will see what happens. Doesn’t look good for the outlook though to be positive in the near future.

      1. John this time last year we were going to have a snowy winter. I figure we can definitely know by say……march 2013 🙂

        1. We will need to look at many factors. Strong/ weak el Neno, blocking, nao just to name a few. We shall see. But staying strong with my thoughts, we shall know soon. I hope to redo my pool deck with the snow money.

            1. 100% agree. We still attempt the forecast. I did that last winter, and completely blew it. 🙂

              1. But it’s fun to try and I get that everyone wants to. Me….I’m going for a repeat of 1978 or April fools or one of those ….or even Halloween. Anything where we lose power !!!

  21. Outside of some very initial speculation, it’s simply too early for me to form concrete thoughts on the winter. It’s still summer. And some of the factors that aid a forecast for the coming season lie in the season that precedes it. Since Autumn 2012 has not taken place yet, I won’t be forecasting solidly for winter 2012-2013 for many weeks to come, other than maybe offering some initial ideas based on partial data.

  22. An interesting note: CPC is forecasting above normal temperatures for the Northeast for the next 14 months straight. This forecast was issued on August 16.

    This, however, is a much warmer forecast than their previous 14 month outlook issued 1 month prior.

  24. There is some color starting to show already here in Boston. I have noticed that the trees don’t look all stressed out like last year. Hopefully this means an earlier foliage season and much prettier than last. I do believe, however, that the days of peak colors occuring on Columbus Day weekend especially nearby are long gone. Peak colors for SNE are now will likely occur during November.

    Last year there were still a few green trees in my neighborhood into December. I had never seen that before.

    1. Good grief TK. First you say warm fall then you say leaves dropping. You are going to upset Charlie and by default me re warm fall since I jumped on his boat and can’t remember if we have life jackets

  26. I hope the foliage will be great this fall season and the weather cooperates so I could get all the leaves raked and bagged. After I am done with that bring on the snow!

  27. Kind of interested in the NHC’s take on Michael. In the last six hours, it has developed an eye and the central dense overcast is symmetric with cold cloud tops. It might be a big increase in winds from 70 mph.

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