Summer Swan Song

70 Comments

1:54AM

Generally nice weather will dominate for the final day and a half of astronomical Summer. The exception will be Cape Cod & Nantucket which will be under a canopy of clouds and may see a little light rain. This is from the front that gave the wind and rain Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which has been hanging around just offshore since then. A small ripple of low pressure is responsible for the backward jog of this area. By early Saturday, this area will be back out to the east again as a new cold front approaches from the west. Timing of this front suggests most of the clouds and any shower risk will take place between midnight Saturday night and shortly after dawn Sunday morning. This front will move right along so that weather should improve quickly on Sunday. A cool shot of air will max out on Monday which will feel very much the new season. High pressure will move in at that time and then dominate a good portion of next week with a dry stretch of weather expected, with some warming likely as well.

Autumn begins at 10:49AM Saturday, which ironically will be the warmest day of the next several.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, except mostly cloudy over Cape Cod & Nantucket with a chance of a little light rain. Highs 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds with any light rain ending Nantucket & Outer Cape. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere to start then area of low clouds may develop before dawn. Lows 50-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Any low clouds melting away by mid morning then mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds advancing west to east. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm from west to east after 2AM. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds with a possible shower far eastern MA especially Cape Cod & Islands to start then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 70-75. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 71.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.

70 thoughts on “Summer Swan Song”

  2. Something that caught my eye, not having much of an effect on New England…..

    About 5 to 7 days down the road, both the EURO and GFS develop an eastern Pacific tropical system and track it northeastward into the Baha of California. While the system then weakens quickly, I’d think if that verifies, there could be an opportunity of healthy rains in the southwestern US.

    1. I have tracked a lot of systems like that during my career. Those often were the best rain-producers for that part of the country. We’ll see if those models are onto something.

  5. About a degree warmer here last night than night before. Great sleeping weather. Cloud cover this morning and 50 deg

  6. Brett Anderson in his morning blog says that only a weak El Nino is expected this upcoming winter.

    TK…what does a “weak” El Nino pattern mean for us in terms of snow?

    1. It looks like the bloggers sufficiently answered below. 🙂

      The only thing I really can add is that I myself want to take much more than the ENSO phase into consideration when I formulate my winter forecast. Much of this will take place in the next 8 to 12 weeks.

  7. Hi Philip…. I have been reading about weak El Nino’s and if their west based that tends to lead above normal snowfall for the east. There are other factors to look at and it way to early to give a prediction unless of course your AccuWeather or The Farmers’ and Old Farmers’ Almanac. I am waiting for our friend Henry Margusity winter outlook in October.
    It will be interesting to see if any of those predictions come close to happening. The Old Farmers’ cold and dry The Farmers’ Almanac cold and snowy with big storms for Mid December 12-15th of February and 20th-23rd of March and AccuWeather with above normal snowfall predicted for SNE and the Mid Atlantic.

  8. IIRC, we were supposed to have already been in a weak El Nino since the beginning of the summer and to my knowledge, its still relatively neutral (please correct me if i am wrong on that). The El Nino was supposed to negatively affect the hurricane season with less than average named storms in terms of numbers…and that never happened. I’m starting to wonder if we see any El Nino at all.

    1. Ace I believe we will see a weak el Nino. I go by different things. Phasing, fall, el Nino/ what kind of set up does it take etc. More into it when I give my forcast. Also gut and acorns., watch them there is truth to that myth.

      1. Thanks john. Sounds like a good list. We shall see how it all pans out. I always wondered about acorns too. Also wondering about the abundance of pine cones that seem to be covering the ground in and around my neighborhood. Wonder if that means anything or if its just cyclical and independent from the weather.

        1. Your welcome. Believe me acorns work. I don’t think the pinecones mean anything. I will let you know by the end of the day or sooner. Talk with you later.

  9. If you look back historical data in regards to weak El-Nino it adds up to more snow than average for us in the east.

    1. Agree. This is one of my factors on my list, though a small one. The people with the low amounts, should rethink. I think my guess will still be close to 100 inches, that is not my official call yet.

      1. Hey AceMaster…. I think the totals would have to be lower because to me the forecast for above normal snowfall
        came with the idea we would have a weak el nino.

        2. JJ I’m confused. Didn’t Brett Anderson say there is going to be a weak el nino? I am probably reading wrong but now am not sure if there will be one or no. Out of curiosity, can el nino’s be predicted pretty far ahead with accuracy?

          1. Brett’s Blog did say it looks like we will have weak el nino conditions for the upcoming winter.
            The El Nino is taken its sweet time to develop and the thinking seems to be if we do get an El Nino it
            will be weak. Back in the spring their were some forecasts hinting at a moderate El Nino by late fall and the
            start of winter. I am not sure what the accurracy is for predicting an El Nino that far in advance.

            1. In addition to what El Nino will or wont be doing, I think there’s a certain amount of unknown at high latitudes. The ice minimum is at a record low and that is a lot of heat thats going to be released into the atmosphere up there as the now ice free parts of the Arctic ocean freezes up. How thats going to effect the atmosphere might be an unknown…..

      1. John, outside of 95-96, I cant remember too many winters that have approached 100 inches of snow….so, be careful with what you’d like to wager on. 🙂

          1. Thats what the predictions were this time last year too John. I figure if there were a sure way it’d be figured out by now. But I can’t help but wonder what promoted longshot to say 3 inches last year. And Charlie was darn near as close. Wonder if they were guesses or based on some indications

  14. I would love to think 100 inches of snow but I would not bet anything if that’s your number. I gave purposely not weighted in on a number bc it’s too soon to gage what might happen. Over the next 8 weeks we will know a lot more.

  15. Way too early for snow #’s for me. Summer isn’t over yet.

    I’m not making the same mistake I made last year. 🙂

    CPC’s 6-10 & 8-14 are going DRY. This is the start of a trend I believe. For temps they are near normal through 10 then ABOVE normal thereafter. I think we’re looking at a very warm start to October, possibly prefaced by a warm end to September as well.

    1. Ahhhhhh but for you and others that is incredibly logical. Since mine is a pure gut guess I could have guessed a while ago 🙂 and been just as apt to hit or miss!! I do have one good gut instinct and that’s when we have seen the last storm – and no I don’t wait until June 🙂 ;). My husband has learned to put the snowblower away when I say that’s it

  16. This page is no longer maintained by NWS but for now has pretty up-to-date info on it. No, not many winters in Boston have approached 100 inches and I’d be willing to wager it won’t happen there any time soon.

    You’ll also notice that 3 of the top 10 snowiest winters in Boston have occurred during the age of global warming in the 1990s. If you include last year, 3 of the least snowy winters have been since 1990. Coincidence? Overall, it has been snowier in the last 20 years than it has been in quite some time. I remember the State Climatologist telling me that the 30 year average was bumped up because it was skewed by the 1990s and 2000s which were both relatively snowy decades.

    Here’s the page. It does not include last year. Have fun!

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowbos.html

    1. To the few here who seem to be scratching your heads with my call, well ok. My call on inches of snow has not been officially put in yet. I am predicting an above average snow for the winter. I probably will not go with 00, but unless thing’s change with my last bit of information next month, it still will be a higher number. Again this is coming from weather information I have been following, and yes some gut. I would actually say less gut. And yes a very small piece of this is based on a potential very weak el Nino. I stress el Nino is just one small factor. If I had to throw out a number now it would be a guess.for kicks now say 40.5. Im not being cocky. I have been watching some information this summer. If Im wrong that’s fine. Actually to tell you the truth I would love a repeat of last winter, but that will not happen.

    3. Is it do to the warmer air holding more moisture than cold air. Colder air is drier so would that make it easier for the snow to fall?

    1. I had forgotten about that ! That was crazy……now I’m remembering, 4 Wednesday’s in a row with school cancellations due to snow days. And then in early Feb, a double barrel storm system, with the second one having heavy rain falling on a 2 ft deep snowpack with the streets turning into rivers because the drains were blocked……..boy, last winter weatherwise was kinda boring, wasnt it……..

      2. Oddly and coming from a snow lover I thought it was really interesting. I wouldnt want it to be the norm though. Except maybe oct storm.

        1. Oh, I loved last winter !!! But, when the image came back to me of that early Feb…………on the first storm, we got somewhere around 6 to 7 inches of snow and it pushed the snowcover to heights that the south shore rarely sees and then the second storm had a heavy cold rain with all kinds of street flooding, to think of last winter comparatively action wise, seemed…well…..but, I’ll take dull anyday !!!

  20. I’m pretty certain this winter’s pattern will be different. I recall last year around the equinox, the below freezing nights were already showing up in Alaska and the Yukon. Then, real cold set up there, it really never left and downstream, the east coast of the US never had winter…..

    This year, the below freezing air near the equinox can be found further east, in north-central Canada. Alaska is mild….Barrow, AK is nearly 40F everyday and the Yukon is amazingly warm. Very different look already…….I’m guessing that it wont translate into an excessively snowy northeast US……..But, different pattern year to year, absolutely !!

  21. Earlier Friday evening a narrow band of rain/drizzle developed near Cape Cod and tracked northwestward, and has survived as a band of soaking drizzle right through Metro Boston during the midnight hour. It shows up on radar as of 1AM much like a sea breeze boundary would show up. It’s weakening now, and falling apart, but much of the Boston area now has damp to wet ground. Still expect that to be it for any precip, with just low clouds and areas of fog from here into morning before the sun burns it all off by late morning/noon. Saturday afternoon will feel much more like summer compared to how it felt on Friday.

      1. We were all surprised to get up to find that it had rained. Still misting here and somewhat foggy. Husband’s tee time is 12:10 so he’s keeping his fingers crossed and also happy he could not get his traditional early morning time

        1. Certainly not a soaker, but more of a “damper” this morning. To be honest, though I knew we’d get a marine layer with low clouds and some fog, I did not expect the extensive drizzle. Low levels must have saturated very nicely. I also wonder if this means it may take longer to burn this stuff off during the day. I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans unless they were dependent on 100% sun all day (example, charging solar lights in full sunshine all day). 😉

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