Fall In!

104 Comments

9:36AM

Shortly after the issuance of this blog entry will be the Autumnal Equinox, or the astronomical start of Fall, at 10:49AM. Locally (Boston area & surrounding neighborhoods) this event will be met with not much fanfare as low clouds and areas of fog hang on. The marine layer sure took over during the night, socking the region in with low clouds, some fog, and more drizzle than I anticipated. With luck, the sun will have enough to burn all of this off by midday or early afternoon, though to be honest I would not be surprised if some areas struggle to be rid of the low clouds entirely until just about sunset. At that time, we’ll have a south to southwest breeze in place that should have finished off the job the sun couldn’t complete. But this southerly wind is yet another sign that the sky will not stay clear for long, as the day Fall begins starts to feel a little more like late Summer, you know that a cold front must not be far off, and if you made this assumption, you’d be correct. The front that you just knew was on the way will in fact cross the region during the early morning hours of Sunday, from west to east, bringing lots of clouds but only limited shower activity. There is an outside chance that a heavier shower or rumble of thunder may survive its trip started somewhere in NY late Saturday afternoon into the western extremities of the forecast area in the post-midnight hours, but most of us will see little if anything, just a few passing showers. By the time the Sunday morning sun rises, it may still be inhibited by clouds as this front schleps its way offshore, but alas, enough push from advancing high pressure will get this boundary far enough east so that the sky will clear, dry air will move in, and Sunday will turn out to be a very pleasant first full day of Autumn!

Regarding next week, I don’t want to fall into the trap of which forecast model is right, because looking at them right now, I’m having trouble deciding which one, if any, to buy into. Not that we have a complicated weather situation about to unfold. It’s really just a matter of how fair the weather will be, and the timing of disturbances. For now, I’ll take a chance on some clouds from a disturbance Monday, but leave the showers out of the forecast on the thinking the air will be too dry to support them. Tuesday will be forecast as a fair day, as will most of Wednesday, with a cold front to bring a shower risk Wednesday night before a push of cooler, dry air arrives Thursday and continues through Friday.

Next weekend? Nice try. Ask again tomorrow. 🙂

For now, the forecast, as I see it, for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Low clouds, areas of fog, and lingering drizzle eventually giving way to at least partial sunshine (Merrimack Valley and southern NH may hold on to clouds the longest). Highs finally reach the upper 60s coast to lower 70s inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers possible from midnight to dawn. Lows around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds depart from west to east early. Mostly sunny for the balance of the day. Highs around 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 65.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers at night. Low 55. High 73.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

104 thoughts on “Fall In!”

  2. Yay – welcome Fall and thanks TK.

    And Charlie…………you got it. There were no more 90 degree days and you called it long ago. Kudos to you and of course to all who said the same!

    Of course now that I’ve said that we’ll have 90…….Charlie, say it ain’t so 😕

        1. That sounds good to me !! I dont need last year’s 87F that we had on the Sunday of Columbus Day Weekend, as I recall.

        1. It definitely was warm last Columbus Day weekend as I took my boys on a whale watch out of Plymouth and it was gorgeous.

            1. I am hoping to go John. I never got in touch with Joyce so not sure Oliveira’s will be an option for parking now. It is certainly going to be a great parade.

              1. I guess that was the plan sue, to have one heck of a parade. Looking forward to it. You should bring the kids to the Christmas tree lighting this year. They bring Santa in on the truck, Santa just happens to be me.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    And Happy Fall to everyone! Sun just making an appearance here in Sudbury. Have a great weekend all!

  5. Very well written blog entry TK! Happy Fall!

    I am almost tempted to ask you about next weekend just because you told me to wait for tomorrow 😉

    Apple Cider! Earlier sunsets! Holidays approaching…. 😀

    1. Thanks Emily!

      And as usual, your sense of humor earns you one of these: 😛

      I do completely agree about the cider, earlier sunsets, and approaching holidays. Three of my favorite things about Autumn and the progression toward the cold season. 🙂

        1. I learned early to embrace what is given to you, winter, summer, everything between. It never rests in one place, it’s always moving along, like life. For me, a day spent hating is a day wasted. 🙂

    2. Not only do I like the cooler temps Emily but you just hit the nail on the head. It means the holidays are approaching 🙂

  6. From jr at channel 7

    @jreineron7: This is a stretch but I’m bored…Duluth MN picked up.1″ of snow last night–earliest since 1995. Boston snowfall winter of 95/96..108″. Ha!

    1. Awwww I want snow and John take it from an old lady – don’t wish time away. It goes quickly enough as you get older not to mention your best buddy will grow before your eyes

      1. Hear ya. Just don’t like the cold and snow. I just love everything about summer. I do enjoy the fall. Nice and refreshing, And can still wear shorts.

      1. rather see a few days with good freezes and then their will be more color all at once happens alot up in vt and nh. have a few warm days and then have some cold nights and chilly days you then will have better colors also not having rain while the process is going on i beleive helps out the colors as well . correct me if i am wrong

        1. Also,agree about the freezes. I want the mosquitoes GONE. I love sitting on the deck at night with a fire but don’t dare and it bugs me (no pun intended) to no end

  8. Those thunderstorms out in eastern NY State have a bit of punch to them and looking at the IR Satellite, some of the cloud tops are gaining some altitude with the brighter white clouds showing up……..

    Barrow, AK with a decent NE wind off of the Arctic Ocean is 39F……39F !!! So, its seems to me that its reasonable to assume thats about the ocean temp. Wow….not about to freeze up anytime soon.

  9. this summer weather was great i wished we had a few more 80s and 90s this year but i like seeing the near normal temperatures to even slightly below normal. I love the summer weather. the summer worked out great, now lets see if the winter works out . P.s I want alot of snow and i want it to be cold but not to cold to make the air to dry. I am hoping the forcasted weak El nino will help. out with this. 🙂 If this happens this would be a great year weather wise. 🙂 funny how my parents have not closed the pool yet. last year had it open until oct 1st and yes i went in just so i could say that i went swimming in october.

  10. Did I dream that we had heavy rain? Lovely sun now. And ugh I do not like night games and what possessed them to wait until 8:20 to start. It’ll be a good game though

    1. 8:20 = ratings … I think it should be 7, not 8:20. Primetime begins at 7 on Sundays! And the league needs to get these games to be NO LONGER than 3 hours. That way they can have a 1, 4, and 7, and fit it all in! No more 4:15 and 8:20 and now there are 4:25 games this year. Whassupppppp????

      And no it was not a dream… Downpours indeed survived further east than my forecast above indicated. One of them probably visited you.

      1. 4:25 now. Good grief. I actually like that time best as it gives us the whole day to get things done which includes prepare Sunday dinner. But 1:00 is fun too.

      3. longer half time shows? they are starting to have marching band perform once again. Hoping U mass lowell get picked once.

        1. which is good. but i want welker out there. more. I do not know why they do not want to use a star reciever.

          1. SIL agrees with TK. Belichek is not going to bench a person because he didn’t catch a few. Counter productive he said welker doesn’t fit into the tight end set. He actually said before season started this is what would happen. Welker also had no catches in four preseason games.

          1. Bet me.

            Just kidding… 🙂

            I just have a feeling that somehow he is not fitting into Bill’s current system, and that he’ll be on his way by week 9 or 10 if not before that.

      1. 3am, ouch. Hopefully u can DVR the game (I almost said tape the game). Does anyone still do that? I must admit, I still have a VCR 🙂

        1. I know ouch. Need to leave at 2:20, but its overtime. I won’t. Record it. My bedtime is definitely by 9:30 tops, so I guess I will watch first quarter. But I’ve proven in the past its tough to walk away. Huge fan here. Do you know I have never been to a game. Someday my son and I will get to go. Enjoy the day ace. Getting ready for the town’s big parade today.

          2. The weather really couldn’t be any better. Those initial thoughts of progression of systems worked out for my forecast thankfully. Good luck John!

            1. It was perfect. what a parade, it was a huge parade. I guess when you plan something for 3 years thats what you get.Great afternoon.

          3. 9:20 isn’t too much before my normal bedtime and I don’t get up at 2:00. Do you then work a full day on top of it ? Enjoy the parade John!

              1. Son was doing double shifts -16hrs-once a week until recently when a new academy graduated thank heavens. When the state stopped hiring a year ago most had 2 doubles a week. Good OT as you say but awfully long days. Be safe – especially driving home

    2. When I was working at the private company I worked at for years, I basically could make my own hours, but I used to work on Monday evenings from 6PM to 2AM for some time, and I used to have a ritual of going to Dunkin’ Donuts and getting a coffee roll and coffee 8:45PM to get back just in time for Monday night game, which I could either watch on a small TV we had in the large radio booth, or just put on the radio. Once I was all sugared out, eventually I’d break out the oyster crackers later in the evening. 🙂

      1. I was doing yardwork for a couple hours yesterday afternoon in long sleeves and yet I felt no humidity whatsover as well as last night. Slept like a baby. Barry mentioned the humidity last night, but yet I was thinking…whaaaa? what is he talking about?

        It usually doesn’t take much for me to feel the humidity. As soon as it gets even a couple degrees above 60 it starts to get to me. I am so glad to be rid of HHH for another year. 🙂

        2. I did notice an upswing in the humidity last night. I was in Westwood at fireworks and the clouds rolled in then and so did the humidity, and it followed me up 95 back home. 🙂

  13. Serious question: Are VCR’s still compatible today? I still have mine but I just assumed they can no longer work without analaog TV reception.

    Hey TK…I get coffee rolls every now and then at Dunkin as well. They are really good except for my waistline of course. 😉

    1. I have no idea. Daughter uses it on an old TV just for her little guy to watch all the old Disney movies we have. Great question. I don’t even know if she’s used it recently. Maybe Ace knows

      1. The one I have is a DVD/VRC combo and it does work on my HD TV. Not sure if a straight up VCR will work. I think as long as ur TV has a coaxle cable, u should be able to hook it up, of course, wont be in HD though 🙂

        1. Thanks AceMaster…I have a TV with VCR built-in. Maybe sometime I’ll pop a VHS tape in and see if it still works. However, I thought I read awhile back that with the conversion to digital no longer allowed VHS use and all one will get is “snow”.

            1. I don’t know. Im not even sure how long it’s been since she’s used it. I will remember to ask or I’ll try to remember 🙂

    2. I got lucky in the genetics department with high metabolism. BUT, I still go easy on the high calorie stuff and do everything in moderation. 🙂

  14. Long range 12z GFS today looks to be featuring the current pattern over the long term, with maybe a brief break in the middle……

    I’m starting to think the pattern now of ridging in eastern Alaska/Northwestern Canada, big trof in central Canada down into the central US, and western Alantic ridging may be the featured one for months to come.

      1. Opportunities for east coast storms this upcoming winter I hope! I have a gut feeling though they may travel moreso to our west. Am I on the right “track” Tom? haha. 😉

  15. I don’t want to give too much away right now but based ONLY on what I have seen so far (still waiting on the weather from October 1 through November 15 to occur), I think snowlovers may be frustrated this winter, but not as badly as last winter.

    1. You mean like Boston could end up with 10.3″ compared to 9.3″ like last winter? 😉

      The way our climate seems to be radically changing, with our luck it could happen…scary. 🙁

      1. I don’t think we are really seeing a radical change. We’re seeing changes similar to what has been observed at times throughout weather history, just now with satellites, sensors, and every other conceivable way to view it at our disposal.

        But, agree or not, I think Boston’s snowfall will be well over 10.3 inches. 🙂

          1. You guys will all be in your glory after this winter trust me. I will give all my details when my snow amounts go in by the 11/15 deadline.

            1. I’ll be in my glory snow or no but I look forward to your guess and to more of this incredible weather we are having. How was the parade. What a day for it

              1. Can’t give my guess till I see my last information that I’m waiting for. But it will be high. The parade was fantastic, so big. Lots of people. I was disappointed that Brown was not there, he was invited. I have a sunburn. Your daughter would be so happy here.

  16. I find it interesting that those who easily tolerate humidity (i.e., TK) actually felt some humidity last night but those like myself who despise it didn’t feel a thing. Ironic, to say the least.

    1. Oddly Phillip I do not tolerate humidity and felt the higher Temps last night – even during the night sleeping. But I didn’t think it felt humid

    2. I have high tolerance despite being sensitive to it. I can also guess temperature without measuring it, within 2 degrees just about every time, just by feeling the air. Always had that ability.

      1. I am pretty good at guessing temp too. I don’t wear a watch and my husband laughs because I know the time to within 10 minutes or less. That being said I rely on my hair for humidity so can’t take any credit for it 😉

  17. I am finding somewhat disturbing about today’s tv mets developing a distaste for winter. I have been noticing how the mets go along with the newscasters opinions about cold and snow, etc. and about “winter” in general.

    Joe’s blog today has “unfortunately” and “winter” in the same sentence.

    I can remember Don Kent with that “twinkle” in his eye when forecasting snow. IIRC it used to drive Jack Chase crazy. 😉

    2. It could be that most don’t look forward to dealing with it. Examples as follow: people don’t like driving in it after working all day, going home to remove it after working all day, cost of oil. Cold winter in today’s economy is bad for the family who heats using oil. I think if a poll were taking, most would say they dislike winter, like myself. But I deal with it and dont complain. What do we need to prepare for from spring to fall, nothing enjoy. But winter you need to plan around everything. Just my views.

      1. John as a counter. You can always get warm but not always cool. AC costs a fortune. Raking leaves and mowing the lawn every week takes far more time than clearing a driveway. Gardens and weeds are forever challenging. Snow brings income to those who rely on plowing. There is An incredible peace to a snowfall. Driving can be equally dangerous in a severe front.

        That being said I love it all and could never live in an area that doesn’t have the seasons that New England has. We are incredibly lucky IMHO

  18. After looking at Boston’s climatological data report, we are currently losing 1 minute of sunrise and 2 minutes of sunset. I find it interesting in that we don’t lose or gain daylight at the same rate.

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