Brief Warm-Up, Showers, Then Cooler

57 Comments

11:16PM

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday bringing a warmer southwest wind into the region, this after some areas start out quite chilly first thing in the morning after a clear, relatively calm overnight. By Wednesday, clouds and a shower threat will arrive courtesy of a cold front. This front will pass by during the evening hours, introducing a shot of cooler and drier air for Thursday. Friday may turn out like Tuesday as high pressure that builds in Thursday slides offshore at that time. The weekend is a tough call this far out. There are indications of stormy weather, but I am somewhat skeptical of the medium range guidance that shows this. So for now, though I am not forecasting a perfect weekend, I am not looking for a wash-out either. Stay tuned for more on the weekend as it gets closer.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows ranging from 40 inland valleys to lower 50s urban centers. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-77 except 60s some south-facing coastal locations. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 53-58. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 64.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 70.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 64.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 65.

57 thoughts on “Brief Warm-Up, Showers, Then Cooler”

  1. “Stay tuned for more on the weekend as it gets closer.” What channel are you going to be on? 😉 Haha that would be really neat it you were on TV!

      1. Emily I read the first two entries and have bookmarked your blog.

        My thoughts as I read Hey, You’re a Writer Now…..
        I’d say you are a writer when a person reading what you have written looks forward to the next sentence, is sorry when s/he has some to the end, and as an added benefit, smiles the entire time s/he is reading.

        I’d also say you have met every one of those criteria!!!

        My thoughts were similar with Please Believe Me. In addition, I was able to picture that little girl with her knees embedded in the carpet and empathize with her as she returned to her paper, pencils, erasers and rulers in tears.

        Thank you for sharing!

  3. Thanks TK !

    Marshfield at 41 F. I think Logan and other reporting climate stations have a shot at avging below normal tempwise for September.

    Google Barrow AK webcam (if you’d like) ……..They had some snow overnight.

  4. Thank you TK!!

    Framingham was down to 43 again this morning. Another beauty of a day. Husband has his end of season tournament today.

    TK, I will stay tuned. We were planning a family apple picking trip Saturday. Do you have a sense of the timing during the day if there is to be rain/showers?

    1. Vicki, our end of season golf tourney is next fri. Hopefully we get a beauty of a day like yesterday and today!

      I am also planning a day of apple picking this sat. I hope the showers hold off till late afternoon/night!

      1. Enjoy the tournament and I also hope you have a perfect day! It feels to me as if we were just talking about the start of the golf leagues and that was sometime in late April.

        1. I know, this summer went by too fast. I’m starting to get into the skiing mode already which is kinda sad, lol.

          Which orchard(s) do u usually go to? I usually go to Honey Pot but I want to try a diff one this year

          1. Sorry I just saw your question. My daughter and SIL have been going to honey pot at least once a week for the month of september. My grandson loves it. They mostly see the animals, etc since they already apple picked.

            We’ve tried others and will go to a smaller one this weekend in Holliston just because it’s equidistant for everyone. I think Honey Pot just offers the most….love the cider donuts and their candy apples are the best I’ve ever had.

  5. In the slim chance that someone here hasn’t already noticed on the calendar, three months from today is Christmas 🙂

  8. JJ- In one of my first postings many weeks ago when I gave my tenative winter outlook, I had called for a warm fall. I than went on to add the warmth would fool people on what would be to come, starting mid december, cold and snow. Just thought I would share that.

    1. What is considered warm? Right now it appears we are right on target with an average fall (sept 72/57) – of course we’ve only had a few days of fall 🙂

    2. Hi John…. I am going with the odds and it seems when looking back at mild October’s and November’s the winter that
      followed was mild with below normal snowfall. When those two months are colder than normal we tend to have our
      roughest winter’s 95-96 02-03.
      I am hoping for a cold snowy winter and rooting for Accuweather and The Farmers’ Almanac to be right. Last year
      was a big disappointment.

  9. Hi all! Seems many on this blog are not feeling confident about good chances for snow again this winter. Granted it’s early, but I have read four recently issued winter outlooks now and all of them are projecting above normal snowfall and cooler than normal temperatures for the mid atlantic and northeast. In addition to the Accuweather winter outlook that was issued a few weeks ago, the following articles are good reads:

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/09/official-2012-2013-winter-forecast_8.html

    http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/

    http://www.cirruswx.net/apps/blog/show/17999931-cirrus-weather-preliminary-winter-2012-13-outlook

    The theory in the first two articles is that we are heading into weak El Nino which creates an active southern stream storm track. There are also signs that the El Nino will be west-based which creates a cooler anomoly over the eastern part of the country. Strataspheric temperature coming into this winter is near normal (was not so last year) and several indices are in place that correlate conditions now to what they were coming into the winter of 2009-2010 which produced epic snows in the mid-Atlantic. That winter had a weak-moderate west-central based El Nino with extended periods of -NAO. In fact, the blocking that winter was so strong that it kept the storms just south of us.

    In any event, it’s all guess work right now but there is hope. It appears (at least from these articles) that we will have more frequent supply of moisture and cold air to work with. Combine them with periods of -NAO and we are in business for at least a few big east coast storms. This will NOT be a repeat of last winter!

    1. If you had not put your name on that post, they would have thought it came from me. I have been stating this on here. Excellent, excellent post. I have been studying certain signs since summer. I 100% think we will have a weak based el Nino, I would bet the house on it. I can say right now with what info I do have a very good guess would be 50inches. I will definitely be upping that when I put in by 11/15.

              1. What happens in one winter really doesn’t have any bearing on the next. So the fact that last winter was so terrible should not impact anyone’s thoughts on these season. There are a number of features in place this fall that are different than last year. I also don’t believe that what happens in Oct and Nov dictate the rest of the winter. In 2010, we had a warmer than normal October and average November with virtually no snow. Then it got cold in Dec. and we know what happened from xmas on!

                2. The Fall temperature correlation is only about 50/50 at best, so I don’t rely on that. What does seem to be creepy is the measurable snow in October leading to crappy snow winters for snow lovers.

  10. CPC outlooks show above normal temps thru day 14 for eastern New England. I continue to agree with this. They also show it on the wet side. This part, I do not so much agree with.

      1. I’m not referring to the overall pattern for Oct/Nov. I was commenting on CPC’s outlook for the next 2 weeks. I see it as a fairly mild pattern. Not too long after this I think some longer term changes take place.

        1. I knew what you meant. I was commenting on the fall tempatures. I don’t buy into a warm fall means mild winter. Mark had some very good points. I agree with most of what he said. Could you please just comment on his thoughts, thanks.

          1. I tend to agree. The direct correlation of temperature doesn’t work well enough to be a comfortable predictor. I have seen many mild Falls lead to cold and/or snowy winters.

          2. Since TK is the creator of this blog, he can technically comment any any thought he wants to John 😛 But that’s just my opinion 🙂 I personally don’t really care if Fall is warm or not, because all I care about is apple cider and stepping on crunchy leaves 🙂 I’ll bring a sweatshirt just in case 🙂

  11. Super typhoon Jelawat has impressively maintained a cat 4 to 5 strength for the last 2 days and looks extremely healthy on satellite. Thankfully, at the moment, its not near a landmass. I think its the 3rd super-typhoon in that part of the world in the last several weeks.

  12. My family is having a reunion this weekend on Cape Cod. Is there any chance that the weekend, especially Saturday won’t be a complete washout?

  13. TK I read your comments above but with little place to reply thought I’d post here. I am absolutely fascinates by the rule that seems to be a truth – snow in October means little snow rest of winter. You and others said this after last Octobers snow and posted data showing it. Amazingly creepy – is that a meteorological term because I like it

    2. I’m possibly not in agreement with October snow, and possibly Tk could clarify. Ok so last October some got snow, and also alot did not. Yes it was an unusual fall storm. Did we have a dud of a winter because of that, were really not totally sure that is the case, if you will please. Now let’s go back to the October before. Some may remember that patriots game and it started snowing during that game. It snowed hard and long enough to bring out the snow plows. I work with guys from that area and they said it was crazy. Most areas got nothing. But again October snow. Now we all know what happened that winter, lots of snow. So you guys decide. I don’t buy it.

      1. If you go back through time at reasonably widespread measurable October snows, the winter snow will end up below normal better than half the time. Harvey has even mentioned this on air in the past.

        But even that is no lock. It’s not 100%. There is too much chaos naturally occurring on a routine basis to prognosticate the future that far out with any real certainty.

        Joe D’Aleo, one of the best in the business, and correct over 80% of the time on long range, was pretty certain last winter was going to be decent for snow. He, I, and others got blown out of the water.

      2. a mix of factors played into it. I think Irene had a large part to do with it since that is when all this nonsince started in the first place 😉

  15. Some of us got no snow from that Oct snow, i remember friends calling me up saying i heard you got snow and i remember saying that we got nothing, but then drove north 12 or so miles into Norwood,Westwood were an inch or 2 fell,, lots of wind and rain though 🙂

    1. Hi Charlie – I remember the same. We sure got it here but it didn’t seem to be so much the amount that matter as the weight.

  16. Another 2012-2013 Winter Outlook. This one from live weatherblogs posted last week and specific to Boston. They are going with 40″ (slightly below the normal 43.7″ snowfall). They have an interesting chart in the blog that summarizes Boston’s snow totals by month and year for the last 10 years. The two least snowy years (besides last year) were 15.1″ in 2001-2002 which was followed up by a 67.7″ winter in 2002-2003. Then in 2006-2007 we had a 17.1″ winter which was followed by a 51.2″ winter in 2007-2008. So recent history at least is on our side.

    http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=24&topicid=5951&Itemid=179

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