10:21PM
A cold front moving through during the early morning hours of Thursday may set off a few showers and clouds may linger over southern MA and RI for a good part of the morning. The sun will eventually shine there as it will be for most of the day elsewhere, along with cooler and drier air. This won’t last long though, as the front that goes by will sit just south of the region and by Friday will already be pushing back to the north as upper level low pressure develops to the west of New England. Overrunning moisture will cause rain to break out during Friday – quite a wet day. The steadiest of this rain will likely occur from late morning through early evening Friday (earlier than some of the model forecasts or some media outlets have indicated). The remainder of Friday night and the weekend will be unsettled with periods of rain or showers (not raining all of the time), as the upper low continues to dig and spin just to the west. Eventually this low will lift out into eastern Canada and conditions will improve at least partially on Monday, though there may still be some threat of showers that day as well, as we say hello to October. Further improvement including a warm-up is expected toward the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast.
Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Slight risk of a brief downpour with thunder. Lows 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by dawn.
THURSDAY: Clouds lingering in southern MA & RI limiting sun into late morning, mostly sunny elsewhere spreading southward as clouds move away. Highs 64-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-50. Wind N 5-10 MPH shifting to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from southwest to northeast in the morning then continuing through the afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain or showers. Lows around 50. Highs around 60.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 49. High 66.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 73.
“Hello October! Sorry about the rain…don’t take it the wrong way though. I do like you a lot. I like your holiday and your Halloween parade that I will be attending for the first time this year. Don’t worry though, I won’t rain on your parade. (I hope) But it will be raining when you arrive 🙂 Bring an umbrella ;)”
WORSE JOKE EVER
That’s it! If it rains on the parade, I’m blaming YOU! 😛
Thanks TK. Looks like we picked a great weekend to go to the beach in Maine :).
I sense sarcasm in that comment. 🙂
Of course. 🙂 At least it is not high season at the hotel!
I’m hoping your room has an ocean view. If you can’t be on the beach (which I love in the rain) then it’s fun to watch the ocean churn up a bit! If not, I am hoping there are some great restaurants and fun things to do.
Thanks TK.
Really can’t complain much as most weekends for the last 4 months have been pretty amazing. Now we need to make sure next weekend is nice 🙂
i agree Hati just i do not want this to become a pattern
I believe most of the heavy rain stays just a bit to the north and west, though we do get some showers starting Friday, looks like a half inch to maybe 3 quarters of an inch during Friday
Agree with TK that system is more of a Friday daytime into early Saturday morning. Precip amounts generally about 0.5″. Slightly more to the north and west, less to the south and east. Weekend should be more dry than wet but cool and gray. Expect most of the steady precip to be gone in the morning on hours on Saturday.
This brings me to another point. The ECMWF and its ensembles has turned into last winter NAM at a slightly longer range. Consistently since late July the ECMWF has over amplified and hyper-cooled events, then slowed them down right over SNE and foretasted them to linger for extended periods. Just 24 hours ago the model and its ensembles were forecasting a 2″ + event for Boston and moderate to heavy precipitation coming in waves over a period of nearly 60 hours. So as the winter season comes keep that in mind when the ECMWF picks up on winter storm about 5-7 days out. It seems to start to correct itself around 48 hours itself. The GFS had a terrible summer with is temp forecasts due to a programming change that has been somewhat corrected but still at times is showing a cool bias on high temps, but its precip forecast were very good for SNE.
Grrreeeeaaat. Looks like we’re in for a fun roller coaster ride on the model train this winter!
Welcome back JMA. I agree with your thoughts on the models. The GFS did perform well for precip over the summer. The Euro had been better in the longer range in the past, we will see if it gets back to that at some point.
On a side note. Thankfully the Refs are back for the NFL. Just wished the deal could have been reached before the season started!
no kidding, finally good grief!! FOOTBALL IS KING, having a football party this Sunday, expecting up to 30-35 people, but then again this is every Sunday 🙂
At least now the Patriots can win or lose games on their own with the “real” refs. 😉
Seriously though, I no longer have the same confidence about the Patriots as I did over the summer. They seem to have a tendency to find a way to lose games on the final plays. Regardless of the replacement refs, they really should be 3-0 instead of 1-2…2-1 at worst. Also, they really need to win on Sunday, otherwise the AFC East is probably in jeopardy.
im not counting the first 3 games. week one starts sunday. 😉
Wow – nice air – nice day. 70 deg with 46 dp – blue sky with a few marshmallows popping up.
as promised by TK by the way 😎
dp is still 57 here, and not too far south from you!
Wow quite a difference. I’m not even sure when it happened but would say not much before I posted. I’m on a phone conference all day so was focused on that when I realized I was slightly chilly in shorts and had not expected to be.
JMA any early thoughts on winter?
The weather this September has been similar to that of last October. We’re about a month ahead of last year. And I have noticed quite a few trees changing weeks earlier than they did last year. Not surprised at all.
Yes, the color on a few trees looks very nice !
I’ve noticed a lot of color starting here also – esp at the top of the trees.
Nadine rolls on………the snow that fell in Barrow last night hasnt melted at all today ( I think its currently 28F)…..and I’m glad the cooler nights return tonight !
Dewpoint in Bedford down to 42. Still “mild” air at 68 there but the temp is about to slide down rather quickly once the sun drops just a bit lower. It would be pretty chilly tomorrow morning if clouds were not on the way to cap the temperature drop overnight.
A Seattle day on tap for us tomorrow with rain and raw conditions.
Seattle-type weather for the next 5 days (Friday-next Tuesday)…UGH!! 🙁
More bad news…NWS hints at more rain NEXT weekend…UGH! 🙁
It had to hit sooner or later but ugh is right
Hi Philip.
I think the early look at next weekend is decent with a chance that it could be cool or turning cooler. The EURO has high pressure and some real chilly air slowly pushing into our region.
I hope you are right on that Tom. I wouldn’t want a pattern of lousy weekends setting up.
Agreed !!
It won’t be 5 days. The weekend won’t rain much, and there may even be breaks of sun. Monday will be half decent. Tuesday is a wild card … that low pressure wave has a 50/50 shot of being too far offshore to do anything. And regarding next weekend, remember at one point the NWS was also hinting at great weather this Friday-Sunday. Anything can happen between now and then. 🙂
I have a little color on the top of the trees here but far from peak color, on an average year they fall the week of Halloween, last year they fell the week of thanksgiving, will c this year 🙂
Last year was late, no doubt. This year is starting early but I think when it’s all said and done it will be closer to or just ahead of normal.
There is quite a bit of patchy color all over Boston. Last year it didn’t get going until after Halloween. 🙂
Year before was week before thanksgiving too. As a youngster Columbus Day was peak north of here with peak here last week or two.
That’s last week or two of October.
Todd hinted at 80 degrees sometime next week. Is that realistic?
Yes, at least mid to upper 70s one or two days next week.
I was thinking (probably not a good idea 🙂 )…… today, a cool front came through, delivered drier and a bit cooler air…the front didnt get very far south and now a ripple of low pressure is coming along it, passing just to the region’s south. If we’re looking for clues to the cold season, I’d think this scenario in 3 to 4 months would have precip starting as snow, turning to sleet/fr rain inland and eventually rain along the coastline. But, I’d think it would be a decent wintery event, with QPF about .5 to .75 inches.