The Week Ahead (Plus)

37 Comments

8:00PM

Since it is leaf-peeping season, this time The Week Ahead will venture to the virtual edge of the meteorological plank, otherwise known as day 8, which by coincidence will be the 8th day of October.

Saying goodbye to September this weekend was done with periods of showers and rain, though the sun popped out in many neighborhoods late Sunday afternoon. The last of some sun-fueled showers and thunderstorms have been trying to wander into the western parts of the forecast area as the sun sunk below the horizon for the final time in September and the just-beyond-full moon shared the eastern sky with some clouds as it started its journey across the heavens.

Now it’s time to look ahead to the first week of a month that marks a big transition from the final warmth of summer to the first hints of  a coming winter, from the green leaves of summer to the multicolored splashes of Autumn splendor. The atmosphere will be doing its own shifting and shuffling during this week, with direct impact on our weather here in southern New England. As upper level low pressure responsible for the unsettled stretch lifts out of the way via northern New England and southeastern Canada, a ridge of high pressure will build off the East Coast. This means that the air will be fairly mild for much of the coming week, even though another low pressure trough will try to press eastward into the area as the middle of the week approaches. This low should have some trouble against the high pressure to the east, and weaken and remain mostly to the west, though it will send enough moisture in for a chance of showers from late Tuesday through early Thursday. What will  likely knock the high pressure ridge down will be a deepening and advancing low pressure trough dropping out of Canada and into the Great Lakes and Midwest, broadening and eventually pressing into the Northeast as we reach the Columbus Day Weekend. A transition of about 4 days will begin on Friday from breezy and mild weather to much cooler weather, if timing goes as expected. This transition may be marked by some shower activity at some point, but it is difficult to time when that will happen this far in advance. The following forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI will give my best shot at how things will unfold for the first 8 days of the tenth month of 2012…

EVENING (THROUGH 9PM): Partly cloudy. A dying shower or thunderstorm may reach the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures 55-60. Wind southwest up to 10 MPH.

OVERNIGHT (9PM ON): Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming over inland valley locations. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s, coolest inland valley areas and mildest in urban centers. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s south-facing coastal areas, 70-75 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s.  Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers late day. Highs 70-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of showers early day. Low 56. High 74.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 52. High 72.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 74.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 57.

37 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Plus)”

    1. Long way off, so we’ll see. Mother Nature takes great joy in making prognostications work out as fiction.

  2. Okay first, “leaf-peeping season” reminded me of green peeps…those marshmellow things. They make them in like every color now for every season. Not a fan of the taste. Never was a fan of rubber cardboard artificial chicks. 😛

    Second, when I read “to the multicolored splashes of Autumn splendor” I thought it said Autumn splenda, which makes me want coffee. So thanks a lot…hahaha

    Third, Day 8 sounds like a movie. Either a romantic comedy or a horror film…depending on how you look at it. 🙂
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    Okay horrible jokes over now 🙂 I am excited for Columbus day! No classes 🙂

    1. 1) Peeps belong at Easter! Who needs Halloween Peeps? They have Christmas Peeps and Valentines Day Peeps too! What’s next? Arbor Day Peeps? Where does it end?! Also, did you know that if you put a Peep in a container of hydrochloric acid, it will dissolve quickly but the eyes will remain floating on the surface?

      2) Pumpkin iced coffee with extra cream and 5 “splendors” please!

      3) Write the script!

      1. My girls love peeps. They leave them out to get hard. I think it’s something they inherited from their dad. Not from me. I’m with Emily and don’t like taste. And ewwwwwwww TK. Floating eyes of little Easter peeps. Sniff

          1. Good Morning, Emily, they are 32 and 26 (both are moms) and yet they still love the peeps for Easter and still insist on leaving them out to harden.

      1. We are. I know outcome. Mac does not. I have never seen so many lip out shots in my life let alone in one tournament. Did you watch Tom? We are on 17-18.

  4. Dying shower traveling up Route 495 north of the Mass Pike right now verifying the first part of the forecast. This shower will be gone soon.

  5. Man this year is flying. Day 8 is Thanksgiving – Canuck version? Next thing you know, there will be flaky white stuff in the models. Oh wait, there already is.

  6. i wonder how cold columbus day is going to be. I saw someone say high 40s to low 50s do you think there is any possibility of the high getting that low on monday of next week. TK.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Wow – love your description of everything in your update! And your conversation with Emily made me laugh. And I don’t like peeps either. My favorite holiday candy is dark chocolate covered marshmallow anything – Santa Claus, Easter bunnies, etc.

  9. Hey TK, will 8-day forecasts be the norm here from now on? I hope so, but at the same time, I am not much of a fan of AccuWeather’s 15-day outlooks. They change so radically every day. I view them mostly just during the winter months just to get a possible general pattern.

    1. No. Even though 8 is my favorite #, the 8 day forecast was because of Columbus Day. 🙂

  10. Speaking of leaf-peeping, I would say that the fall foliage overall should be vastly improved compared to last year. Color coming on even here in Boston slowly but surely. Last Columbus Day weekend the trees looked just as green as a typical Labor Day weekend.

  12. The gfs is really active past day 6… I wish there are other models that go as far as the gfs so i can compare and see what looks like a more likly solution. I do see that 540 line slipping into the area sunday night and a few possible storms that have been consistant giving northern new england a wintry mix but again there is no comparison and its far out so grain of salt 😉
    There is alot of oranges and reds in the marsh this year. the past few years it has been brown and yellow. nice color change 🙂 Must be an awsome sight up in northern new england.

    1. ECMWF goes out 10 days. I trust it more than I trust the GFS…but its struggling with Columbus Day Weekend, 6 to 8 days out. Now, on the 12z run, it has a low, 1001 mb, I believe, traveling thru eastern NY State on Sunday, with a brief shot of warm air ahead of it. Not sure if I believe it. It has been cool, mild, high pressure, low pressure….all kind of scenarios for next weekend.

      1. I just don’t trust any of them right now, except for setting the stage and letting us figure out what might happen.

  13. Not a bad day in southeast Mass, more sun than clouds most of the morning, into early afternoon and the temps have responded close to 70F.

  14. I really busted the sky forecast today. I did NOT anticipate such extensive stratocumulus to really get south of the MA/NH border. Ah well!

  16. Pete on his evening blog mentions frosts/freezes likely now for the 2nd week of this month after the weekend. Hopefully this means good riddance to EEE for this year. 🙂

      1. I would say that if we can get into a chilly pattern for a good 3-5 days then we’ll be all set for frosts and freezes.

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