2 Days Of Gray Then A Day Or 2 Of “Yay!”

58 Comments

7:33AM

Low level moisture hangs around today which will be gray but largely rain-free. A low pressure wave will bring a threat of showers Thursday. Once this is by, a much nicer day is in store for Friday, and this may linger on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. The timing of this front is uncertain. Showers may hold off until later Saturday night. If this is the case, Saturday itself would be fair and on the warm side. Once that front gets by, the middle part of Columbus Day Weekend will turn cooler and perhaps wet as a low pressure waves slides up along the front. This should be gone in time for a cool/dry Columbus Day. Timing tweaks may be needed this weekend, so stay tuned…

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs from near 60 immediate coast to upper 60s inland. Wind calm in the morning then E to SE under 10 MPH in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-60. Wind light SE.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle early. Showers in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms, then becoming partly cloudy with areas of fog late. Lows 50-55. Wind S 10-15 MPH shifting to SW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-80. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers at night. Low 56. High 74.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 49. High 56.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 61.

58 thoughts on “2 Days Of Gray Then A Day Or 2 Of “Yay!””

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Last night saw TWC talk about their idea of naming winter storms. And the names!! In any case, I think it is a silly idea and if it happens it likely will only cause confusion. Ok, so we already have names for hurricanes. But giving too much personalization to weather doesn’t seem right. It’s just weather and nature. Just my opinion.

    It’s a grey day today – but the gray skies make a nice backdrop for the brightening foliage.

    1. I agree rainshine. Also a hurricane is a hurricane. It seems to fit nicely into the parameters. There are so many variables with snow storms I can’t begin to see how they can conform.

  4. Also – can TWC just go ahead and make decisions? Doesn’t NOAA and the NWS have first word on anything?

  6. This morning AccuWeather gave its opinion on TWC naming winter storms and believed that it would greatly mislead the public. I absolutely agree as well and hopefully TWC will come to its senses and discontinue this stupid idea.

  7. As close by as Brookline, the foliage is coming along quite nicely. This Columbus Day could be the best local viewing in awhile…certainly well ahead of last year by a good 2-3+ weeks.

      1. I’m convinced it has been changing by the hour for this past week. It’s shaping up like a great foliage season.

      2. oddly son just txt’d me that there is not much change in Boston/Brookline/Brighton area and he is probably heading to the Berkshires this weekend. But he’s a mountain area type of person so not sure if his baseline is a bit high.

  8. WFSB Channel 3 here in CT started naming winter storms a few years back. Not sure on their exact criteria for naming them but if there is going to be a significant Statewide impact (6″+), the storm typically gets a name. The October storm last year was named “Alfred” and the big January storm in 2011 was “Benedict”. Our CEO closed our Manchester, CT office in each storm and referred to the storm by its Channel 3 name in his company wide e-mails. People in our other offices thought it was a joke! I agree, it’s a pretty silly idea. One more reason for people to make fun of meterologists and accuse them of hyping storms!

  9. John, the Accuweather winter forecast looks very similar to the initial one they issued about a month ago. It’s still early, but hopefully the consensus holds. Conditions continue to look better for some east coast storms this year. Track will be key – seems like Accuweather is thinking eastern New England may have more mixing with these coastal storms, keeping snow totals to average levels, whereas western New England would have the higher totals.

  11. So it looks like this naming thing will be official for the upcoming winter. My biggest question is, are ALL media outlets going to adopt this? or is this just TWC special thing? I read TWC justification for naming winter storms. One of the main points was to raise awareness of coming storms and to avoid confusion. Well, if TWC is naming storms and local media outlet mets aren’t, then wouldnt this cause MORE confusion? Just my 2 cents.

    1. IMHO you are right – this seems as if it’s a recipe for disaster and as others have said will allow for more criticism of the met community. I wish the media, etc would just let the mets do what they do best – forecast – no hype – honest comments such as the models do not agree but this is what we think. As viewers we are so underrated for our ability to grasp that things can and often do change. It’s the weather and it is fickle.

      My rant for the day. Well, probably not my last since the debate is tonight but……………

        1. definitely not – although tonight I’ll just be yelling a the TV and my husband will threaten to turn it off 🙂

  13. Been raining for quite a while now. I didn’t notice when it started but suspect before noon. Just a dank day.

  14. Commentary on AccuWeather’s winter forecast. I respect those guys, really I do. But now I feel better about going with near to below normal snow. 🙂

      1. Not really kidding. There are signs yes. But signs do not make it happen. The atmosphere still has to come together just right. There are many things that can go wrong storm to storm. One problem we may face this winter is phasing that takes place just too late early in the season, and too far west (inland) late winter. But I still really can’t go “official” on this until mid November. I’m waiting until I have a solid feel of what the Autumn has been like, as that can be a fairly reliable correlation.

  15. Not to ruin everyone else’s plans who are adventuring towards central or northern New England, however :), if the flow could amplify just a little more, maybe Sunday could be salvaged for SE Mass. Especially for those of us camping.

    As far as the depth of these cold shots in the days and few weeks ahead, Hudson Bay has no ice, there’s no snow cover in Canada, and while much weaker, the October sun is not exactly the winter solstice sun. So, I am hesitant to buy into the strength of some of these cold shots. 60F by day and some 30s at night, ok, but colder than that, I dont buy it yet.

  16. I still think below normal snowfall but closer to normal and temps above normal but not as much as last year.

    1. My fiancé ex lived in Suffield. I remember that well as we remained friends and I was worried about him, family and their tobacco fields. Thanks for the reminder

      1. To have a tornado on the ground for 11.3 miles as this one was for New England is quite impressive.

    2. I still remember the day of that. A very powerful storm was moving through and we had heavy rain prior to the big stuff. The warm sector got up into southern New England and the conditions became perfect for tornadic storms. Here in eastern MA we did end up with thunderstorms but no real severe weather. What was very notable to me was after the storms went by the sky turned 100% clear blue late that afternoon and it was amazingly nice outside.

      1. That tornado if I remember from what I heard traveled in a northeast direction which you don’t see often.

        1. The Windsor Locks tornado was out of a very rare left-moving supercell with cyclonic rotation and the storm and associated tornado basically moved due northward up the CT Valley in the middle of the afternoon, near the triple point (warm front / cold front / occluded front intersection).

  18. Looking on the Kimmirut Cam, it is snowing and there’s a dusting for the first time this early cold season.

    Kimmirut is in Nunavut Canada. It is northeast of Hudson Bay, at around 63 to 64 N latitude. It is bounded by the Davis Strait.

    When its snowless and mild in Kimmirut, it is cold and sometimes snowy here ( because the NAO is negative ).

    When Kimmirut has snow and is brutally cold, the NAO is usually more positive and it is a bit less likely to be as cold. By the way, this is my hypothesis and its just based on watching the webcam the last several years and recalling our winters. It does not mean the above hypothesis is correct. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Actually i think there may have been the smallest amount of snow (dust) in Montana today. I think I heard that.

        1. I have seen enough information to date that the chances are extremely high for above snow. I am waiting for one last piece. It will be coming from a well known Dr in the field of meteorology. I know you want it Phil, and its coming before Xmas. Also fall weather and October snow have zero to do with my call.

    2. I’m interested you are following it Tom. My first thought is you have a really analytical mind and it’ll be great to track

  20. Saw some ponds and lakes and there back close to normal, they were down 2-3ft 3weeks ago, it was maybe 4-6 inches below normal today, these r not controlled ponds or lakes, there is a controlled pond near me and for some reason have it like 10ft below

  21. i hope friday is as warm as some are sayings its going to be 😀 sunny and 80. One more quick plunge in the pool 😉

      1. good grief – do you sleep?? I was up at 2:25 singing I’m Henry the Eight I am and Bingo in my head. A debate or anything bit (e.g., football game) should never end just prior to bedtime. But I wasn’t on the computer. Maybe I should have been here chatting 🙂

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