Weather On The Move

75 Comments

7:44PM

Things are about to start speeding along in the atmosphere, as low pressure just southeast of New England moves away, kicked out by a cold front approaching from the west. This front will cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for a one-day stand Thursday. Another small low pressure area and attendant cold front will blast through the region on Friday, with another area of high pressure sliding in for a nice Saturday. More clouds will return Sunday as low pressure rides northwest of New England and a strong southwesterly flow develops, along with moderating temperatures after a shot of chilly air later Friday into Saturday. Saturday morning will deliver the first frost to many areas away from urban centers and the immediate coast. The milder weather arriving Sunday will last into next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Isolated showers before midnight. Lows 44-49. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible from mid through late afternoon. Highs 62-67. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S up to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered showers evening then clearing overnight. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated PM showers. Low 42. High 59.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

75 thoughts on “Weather On The Move”

  1. I will be keeping my fingers crossed that the suburbs get the frost come Saturday morning to get rid of the mosquitoes. It could very well be the only opportunity for weeks to come. Above normal temps ahead for the forseeable future beyond this weekend starting Sunday. 🙁

    Oh well…at least no October snow this time around! 🙂

  5. Accuweather has rain and snow for Keene, NH on October 29th and 30th. 🙂

    TK, How is the weather looking for the 20th?

  6. I do believe Saturday morning is the coldest morning we have had this season. Pretty confident of a frost and in colder areas to the west, say Orange, temps will be in the mid 20’s on Saturday morning. Only fly would be if the gradient does not relax and keeps the winds up more than I am thinking at this time.

    I mentioned last week that I have fallen out of love with ECMWF and its ensembles over the last few months. It tends to over amplify systems over the NE US and then morphs into some previous NAM habits and keeps systems hanging over the area far too long deepening the Eastern US trough. So I am sticking with the idea next week warms and is drier than the ECMWF is currently forecasting based on its shown biases in this most recent period.

    I think in general the temps for the remainder of 2012 average above normal to at times well above normal in the SNE. Once we get into these patterns they can be tough to shake. I think the winter can have more events than last year and events at least give you the possibility of snow, but I keep coming back to this question; Where is the cold air going to come from? So many events here are borderline and if the general trend is more towards warmer conditions it signals to me that most of population centers will be on the rain/mix side of potential winter storms and accumulating snow more often than not will be well north and west. We will see how my thinking evolves. Two winters ago I had a very bad early winter forecasting storms because I was too stubborn to let my thinking evolve with the atmospheric conditions that were setting up prior to each storm, last winter I had a willingness to accept model data in conjunction with current atmospheric conditions and persistence of pattern and that led to a high level of forecasting success. Let’s see what this winter brings. For now warmer than normal with a western trough, SE ridge allowing warm air to flow into SNE through the majority of the remaining days of 2012 is my thinking.

    1. Do you think the weak el Nino will develop. I believe this is a key factor that is being looked at enough.. I don’t want to across as a know it all, but the research I was looking at was looking at showed signs of a warm fall. I had predicted a warm fall. I than went on to say that will catch everybody off mid December when I suspect the crash, if you will too happen. One thing I need to study up on more, is the weather in Europe. I also would like some more information on the melting ice. Like I said I’m going to stick to my call, for now anyways.

        1. John…don’t worry..good post and you seem to be putting a lot of effort into your thoughts. I too think this winter might throw us a curve ball with a few winter storms.

  7. Thanks JMA for your thoughts. I am hoping there wrong and winter comes back with a vegenance this year.
    I think its safe to say Boston will have more than 9.3 inches of snow this year. I am thinking were going to be in the 20-30 inch range for snowfall this winter.

  8. Mark I just remembered your estimate is for 50.3 I didn’t have my computer running on the weekend but I did record it today.

    A reminder – if someone gives an amount, I will ALWAYS confirm I saw it. If I do not confirm, I didn’t see it so please remind me – thank you!

    1. Thanks Vicki! Obviously may need to adjust later on, but we have until Nov. 15 to give a final number, correct?

      Even if JMA and TK’s thoughts on a generally mild rest of 2012 are correct, I wouldn’t necessarily change my prediction based on that as we get most of our snow in Jan and February. 2013 is still too far out to predict temperatures or locations of troughs/ridges at this time.

      John, I disagree that a weak El Nino will be the key factor. Even if we are nuetral, we’ll have storm chances. The key will be how often and how long we can maintain periods of -AO and -NAO (hard to predict this far in advance), and if they coincide with storm chances. It’s all about getting the cold air in here to work with.

  9. I am going to give my total sometime in November but it looks like it will be in the range I listed in previous post.
    Maybe I will be close with that prediction as well as the first measurable snowfall in Boston.

    1. For awhile now, I was thinking for snowfall in the 30-40 inch range, but I am beginning to come into your camp (20-30) Jimmy. I am going to need a couple more weeks, if not the entire rest of the month to come up with a final number.

      This upcoming winter may not be all that much better than last…not that I ever thought it would bring above normal snowfall anyway. 🙁

      1. why give in. I think you guys give up way to early, all because of what the cpc is saying. Ok well how good has the cpc been? There is plenty of room for eror with that in my view.

  10. I hope I am wrong with those numbers and that Almanac gets finally gets right in calling for a cold snowy winter with 3 big ones. One in mid December, another in mid Februray, and another in the later part of March.
    I do think we will get at least one 6 plus inch storm.

  11. I can understand why some could forecast normal to above normal snowfall given the pattern we are in at the moment. If this was winter, most of these systems that have been affecting us would certainly be in the form of snow/ice and it would only be a matter of how much precip would be able to come northward into SNE or stay just offshore.

    I have read some wx blogs lately that have hinted an October/November pattern can set us up for what winter will be like. After what happened last winter and with our climate changing (warming) so much nowadays, I am very skittish about buying into an overall cold, stormy pattern for any given time.

  12. TK commented a few weeks back that the correlation was 50/50 at best. We had near to above normal Fall temps in 2010 which yielded a cold and snowy first half of the winter in 2011. Last year, we had a noreaster in Oct, then nothing the rest of the winter. I don’t buy into the opinion there is a correlation. A warm rest of 2012 does not lock us into a warm/snowless pattern in 2013. The persistence of the SE ridge last winter was unprecedented and will not be repeated this year!

    1. There is definitely a correlation with October snow. Since records have been kept as far back as the 1890’s Boston has always ended up with well below normal snowfall when measurable snow occurs the previous October. I have done the research myself. As for November snows, however, there is no correlation.

      The only reason I came up with such a high total last winter (53″) was that I took a chance and ignored the stats. I won’t do it again should it snow again this month. 😉

      1. Yes, there does seem to be a correlation on that particular statistic and it’s odd. Hard to tell if it is shear coincidence or there is something to it, but history does tend to repeat itself. That is another reason I think we turn it around this winter with our snow totals. The last two warm, and snowless winters (<20") we had since 2000 were followed by above normal snow winters (50-60"). And both those winters had a similar neutral to weak El Nino pattern in place. You never know.

    2. Great points Mark. I agree with all of them. I however think we get snow mid to late December and that will break the warmth from mid October right through mid December. This would be the pattern change for winter 2013.

  14. Today’s SOI values are through the roof, which does not favor El Nino development.
    However we may have a major MJO event soon, which could give the El Nino a much needed boost.

      1. MJO=Madden-Julian Oscillation
        It’s an indicator as to what’s going on over the oceans in terms of tropical convection, the more activity, the stronger the MJO. If there is hardly any activity, the MJO will be weak and will not influence the pattern. The areas of tropical convection determine the phases of the MJO, which range from 1-8. Certain phases help us and hurt us when it comes to winter patterns.

  17. Its very subtle….and though its only October 10th….and though the contrast is not big and there is no rain/snow line involved……..the obs show the season’s first coastal front or inland cool air damming.

    Boston to Providence, points SE….air temps near 63F, dewpoints almost to 60F, SE winds.

    Further inland, air temps near 55F, dewpoints in the low 50S and winds lighter, more from the north-northeast.

    1. Hmmm…interesting observation on your part Tom! You definitely have a good weather sense of what is going on around us. 🙂

      Although, I do wonder though if coastal fronts occur year round from time to time given the right conditions anyway. ❓

      1. It probably does occur year round in some shape and manner. I think what I wrote above was true for the morning, into the very early afternoon, but the last hour or two, even this subtle little difference between the coast and inland has lessened as I believe the cold front to the west is causing inland winds to come around to the SW.

  18. JMA… We are on the same page. Always nice to hear from you on the blog!

    Coastal… 10 days away I’m relying heavily on today’s 12z GFS which I think has the pattern down, but with timing issues that always present themselves, I will with low to moderate confidence predict a mild but dry day for the 20th.

    All… Second Wednesday in a row I kept the daylight hours largely dry in the forecast only to have them turn out quite damp. Oops!

    1. Don’t worry about it TK. I believe all the TV mets and NWS predicted mostly dry conditions for today with showers for the late p.m. commute. 🙂

  19. Here’s hoping these wetter than expected Wednesdays turn into whiter than expected Wednesdays come wintertime. There’s a lot of W’s in there 🙂

  20. As I was doing some more research on my winter forcast, I came across an interesting article. Last January like 60 people died in Europe and hundreds seeking shelter from the extremely cold weather conditions. Sadly most killed were homeless .

  21. Looking at the various satellite floaters on the NHC webpage…….they have one over a system in the Bay of Bengal, which evidently is bordered by India to its west and Bangladesh to its north…..

    The system has a spin to it, but doesnt look very intense as far as winds. However, the impressive cold cloud tops moving over far eastern India and Bangladesh…..I can only wonder how much flooding rains must be occuring over there.

  22. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…
    LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
    INTO FRI EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
    WINDS DECOUPLE LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. COLDEST AIR OF THE
    SEASON FRI NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
    INTERIOR AND MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPS CLOSE TO THE S COAST. EVEN
    TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND BLENDING TRADITIONAL MOS GUIDANCE
    WITH MILDER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE YIELDS MINS WELL INTO THE 20S
    INTERIOR AND LOW 30S NEAR THE S COAST. ONLY BOS METRO AND
    CAPE/ISLANDS TO ESCAPE A FREEZE. WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
    INTERIOR WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HARD FREEZE.

    2. Thanks Coastal. I heard someone on the news this morning say it could be extended slightly toward coast. I hope so.

      1. ugh – although if it means getting rid of the mosquitoes I’ll be happy to turn it on. We have had the gas fireplace on a couple of times.

    1. TK I know I am repeating myself but you go above and beyond to provide updates and I think you worry if you do not. Please know that we will continue to “play” if you don’t have time and I truly believe everyone fully understands the amount of work and time you devote to making this blog happen.

      A huge thanks for all you do!

    1. Thanks, Philip. Will be interested to hear some comments on this and the reasons for it since it seems to be based on global environmental concerns.

      1. Thanks Philip.

        Certainly, I have not done the studies, nor have the background that the people who wrote this article do.

        However, just an opinion, I’d think its the ridge over continents, such as the central USA ridge that would be more likely to intensify IF global warming continued.

  26. Will see what happens with that. Plenty of weather happening across the country and the tropics. First the potential for the first frost freeze for a good chunk of SNE tomorrow night. It looks like a good size severe weather outbreak possible Saturday parts of the midwest and Plains and a tropical wave trying to getting going but thankfully no threat to the U.S.
    I can’t wait to start tracking snowstorms.

  27. According to Killington they are making snow and they had their first snowfall on Monday. That being said, it was in an email I received promoting their season ski passes so……..

    1. hmmm…id have to see that one for myself. There was a snowfall in NNE recently but only an inch or 2 and only at the highest elevations. Probably melted away in a few hours after that.

      1. I didn’t check but suspected the comment that they had their first snowfall was far more than a stretch 🙂 I’d be surprised if they say they are making snow and are not though. But how long can it last at this time of year is the real question.

        1. One of the local news channels showed Sugar Loaf earlier in the week and you could see the 1-2 inches of snow on the trails.

          1. matt I would hate to tell you what they used to make snow when I was a youngun’. I think someone on here has a snow making machine in his backyard that is superior to what they had then 🙂

  28. Freeze watches now up for most of SNE with the exception of the Cape and the Islands. I think Boston and other areas get downgraded to a frost advisory while the interior gets upgraded to a freeze warning. I don’t remember the last time I saw a map like this in October where coastal areas had a freeze warning.

      1. It will be interesting to watch the temps tomorrow evening, into the night. Also am looking forward to seeing the dewpoints by late tomorrow afternoon.

  29. I would love to see the city of Boston get a frost come Saturday morning, but I really doubt it will happen…more likely mid-upper 30’s at the lowest. The average first freeze doesn’t occur for Boston until November 7th and I believe the first frost occurs maybe about a week before Halloween (10/24?).

    Mosquitoes should be gone in most suburbs at least. 🙂

    1. Last I heard Boston would get down to around 32. I suspect the mid 20s here or like 29 degrees. I may havto toy with the idea of hitting the oil switch on. My problem is that once it goes on everybody wants it to stay on.

      1. I hear you John once it’s on here same thing. Amazing that when its 60ish in the house in winter it’s “freezing” but in the summer 60ish is “sooooo nice”

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