The Week Ahead

200 Comments

10:19PM

Due to medium range model guidance that is clearly on a sugar and caffeine high, resulting in my confidence in it being low, I will make this a short discussion, focused on the work week and only touching on next weekend.

Early week (Monday-Tuesday): Upper level low pressure pulls away Monday and high pressure builds in through Tuesday, though a warm front to the southwest of New England may already start sending some high clouds into the region during Tuesday after a bright and seasonably cool day to start the week on Monday.

Mid week (Wednesday-Thursday): A warm front will produce lots of clouds for Wednesday. Optimism wins out for Thursday, which I think will feature a return to sun as a high pressure ridge builds over the region as the front weakens and pushes north.

Late week / weekend (Friday-Sunday):  Narrow ridge of high pressure over the region Friday with fair, mild weather. Front approaches from the west over the weekend but may stay far enough west to allow mostly fair and mild weather to dominate. We’ll also watch a potential tropical or hybrid system to the south but there is far too much uncertainty on the development and track of such a system this far out to even worry about any details regarding it.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s urban areas. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 58.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 62.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 52. High 67.

200 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK! Can’t believe it is Sunday night already. At least we got a Pats win and the Red Sox got John Farrell finally. Let the basketball season begin! Hope the hockey lockout ends soon :).

    1. Pats: This is the kind of season I enjoy each game for what it is and not have great expectations about where it all ends up.
      Sox: Look forward to how the team responds to the change in leadership (again).
      Celts: Not a huge fan of watching basketball but I hope the team does well!
      B’s: Maybe next year they’ll be playing……………………………

      Weather: Well, you see my thoughts above. Have a great week! 🙂

      1. 🙂 TK – you echo my SIL every time re PATS – or he echoes you – and I do believe you are both VERY correct.

  5. Thanks TK !

    The 0z runs of the GFS and the EURO should allow for this question a week out, which model are you with ?

    The EURO’s solution looks hard to believe…but, its idea of a storm not being able to move out into the blocked up Atlantic gets my vote.

      1. AceMaster do you have a link – I don’t know why I keep losing the links to the models. Is there one that has all models at one link? Thank you

          1. These are great – I will definitely need time to explore the links on the first one but the wunderground seemed easy for me to view and understand.

            The day you are talking about that looks scary is Oct 30???? If I am understanding what I see, the weather looks anything but good on that day and I sure hope whatever we get is out of here by Halloween.

  7. No way that happens, the EURO is just plain crazy. Its depicts 30+ inches of snow for the Appalachian region and 6+ inches for rain for many locations. Don’t forget what JMA said about the EURO having major issues this far out and should not be taken seriously.

    1. Yea i remembered JMA mentioning a couple times not being impressed with the performance of the EURO. I think its def overdone as far as the precip and the blocking, but i have a feeling something significant is brewing

    2. So from what I gather, hes not really buying the EURO either. Hes saying the tropical system wont be the big player here, it will be a secondary low that develops along the front after its passage? That is kinda what the GFS is starting to show in this mornings runs.

      1. Henry put up some scary looking maps for sure. It is troubling that a few models do show them and not just outliers. Hopefully these never pan out and whatever forms from “Sandy” moves harmlessly out to sea.

        From NYC to the Cape to Boston and eastern NE could be devastated for sure…as Henry did point out. Very scary!

        1. you should put the link on here so stupid people like me can see it since i lost the sites web address

  9. Does anyone know how Henry’s accuracy is with tropical systems? I say this knowing that this far out even in summer it’s way ahead of the game

  11. On Isaac, the EURO led the way predicting the westward track days in advance of the GFS. While the GFS was over Tampa, the EURO was already on the Texas/Louisiana border……..Of course, that was a summer atmosphere and not the mid autumnal atmosphere of stronger jet streams now. Even with that said, until the EURO says something radically different, its working on a couple days straight with an intense east coast system and I’ll buy into it until it says otherwise……Agree Hadi, will be interesting to see its 12z run.

    1. Thanks, Tom.

      Listening to Henry’s explanation, he did mention what he called could be a devastating hit on Long Island/NYC but doesn’t think that will happen.

      Sure is interesting to follow.

  13. With Debby the GFS was right with its solution taking it in to Florida where the EURO had it west. With Issac the EURO was right with the westward solution. To me this is the tiebreaker to see which model comes out on top with direct impacts to the U.S.

  14. 12Z EURO so far, thru 168 hours, is well west of the GFS, keeping its run to run consistency in tact. Location and orientation of the trough coming thru the midwest looks different though, looks more flat

  15. EURO shifted further east, but still clips coastal NE but a trend away from any direct impact and I would suspect further movement with happen over the next several days

  17. The low does not get captured by that trough on this run. That trough will be the kicker out of here when all said and done.

  18. 12Z EURO still shows landfall through NE but big shift east in the grand scheme of things. It’s a wait and see approach!

    1. Hadi, one site I use I can’t see the EURO past 180 hours. The other site, the 12Z isnt even available yet. What do u use to see past 180 hours?

  23. To get a tropical system to come northward to nail us everything would have to line up perfectly. The trough looks to come through in time to kick this out to sea. Its still worth watching.

  24. I agree Mark, if anything maybe an outer edge of wind and some rain, but the EURO has a 951 MB system on the Carolina coast in late Oct 🙂 That’s just not happening with this system. It still phases the storm but no way this storm happens the way the EURO and CMC show.

  25. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    OMG…that’s what us 4casters r saying upon digesting the latest guidance. Potential 4 a SUPERSTORM in a week- but speculative right now#wbz

  26. The NAO at the time of Oct 31 / Nov 1 is forecasted today to be negative by 2 standard deviations !! Translated to me, that says blocked up Atlantic in some shape or form. How the GFS translates that into sending a system so far southeast away from the east coast is not something I understand.

  27. Normally when you see a setup like that with the NAO there is POTENTIAL for a good size storm to affect the east coast.
    This trough may come through at the right time to kick this out to sea.

  28. One thing to note about the trough coming thru at the right time, the EURO has been quicker in developing the system and sending it up the coast. The quicker it gets up the coast the less time the trough has to kick it out. Other models are slower thus by the time its off the SE coast, the trough is there to boot it. I know most of the tropical spaghettio charts have it far SE, but im not sure how well those models handle the changing patterns of autumn

  30. I did not have this answer for one of my freinds . I do not know the answer to his question can one of you on here clarify. One of the model has the 540 line well north of our area up in canada but then around the center of the “storm” at hour 216 the 3rd bar away from the center is a 540 line as well does that mean anything inside the 540 line has the possibility of getting wintery precipitation or anyone outside of the line getting the possibility of mix precipitation, or because it is comming from the tropics does it not matter and it is all just rain do to maritime air. It took me about 10 minutes just to make sure that i was reading the right numbers http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

    1. Matt, this would be a heavy, windblown rain event for New England. The 850 mb temps are below 0 in central NY/PA and points westward, so from what I am seeing any wet snow would be confined to the higher elevations of the appalachains.

  31. I can never recall a tropical system forming in that location and striking New England. Its origin point is off the Central American coast/Nicaragua. The system would essentially have to move due north for a great distance over Cuba, the Bahamas, and then straight up the coast with little east/west movement. Seems like an unlikely track. Just can’t buy into the strength of the system that the CMC and ECMWF are portraying either. Looks way overdone.

  32. From NWS Taunton:

    THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
    AND WHETHER OR NOT PHASING OCCURS WITH THE TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM.
    IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN POTENTIAL WOULD BE BETWEEN NEXT MONDAY
    THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD DEPEND ON PHASING AND IF THE TRACK IS
    CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. IF AND ONLY IF ALL THE POTENTIAL
    INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM WOULD
    AFFECT OUR REGION. KEEP IN MIND…THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS 7 TO 9
    DAYS IN THE FUTURE. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AND A SYSTEM
    PASSING HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
    THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT ISSUE HEADLINES MUCH MORE THAN 48 HOURS IN
    ADVANCE IS BECAUSE TRACK ERRORS REMAIN TOO LARGE. WE ARE CURRENTLY
    TALKING ABOUT A POTENTIAL STORM THAT IS A WEEK OR EVEN LONGER AWAY
    FROM OUR AFFECTING OUR REGION. THERE CERTAINLY IS POTENTIAL FOR A
    SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM…BUT WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE THE TIME
    RANGE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
    SOLUTION.

  33. I guess the EURO has support from the CMC and NOGAPS and JMA. I just don’t put much trust in the international models having a decent handle on a tropical based system. I do think the NAO tanking is very interesting and the blocking is going to be a big deal. I do think the transition in season will play an impact on how the models handle it. The thing to think about would be that this storm would be of historic proportions for our region like few we have even seen, is that really something that could happen.

    1. I don’t support their solution even with the agreement. It assumes an initial track on the tropical which may very well not be the case. The GFS, though an outlier, may have the right idea early on.

  35. Scott77… I did find a comment that I approved. I hope that was the one you were referring to. If there was another, it may have gotten lost in the shuffle when the spam bots hit with over 100 messages in the past day or so. My apologies if this was the case. I’ll try to examine the list a little more closely to make sure I don’t miss any in the future. 🙂

  37. Just got home from work and realized i got very little work done today. I love following storms! 🙂

  38. The EURO and GFS solution remind me of the Presidential election ….. One goes extremely left and the other extremely right….

  40. As you may have seen above, I missed a message waiting for approval.

    If you write a message and it goes to the section that says pending approval, it probably means you used a different email address from the last time you posted.

    If I seem to have missed approving one, please feel free to poke me about it. I try to keep up with this stuff but once in a great while we get spammed, as any blog does, and there are tons of messages to look through and some legit ones may slip through the cracks.

  41. I’ve heard there is another possible developing tropical cyclone to the east of Sandy in the south central Atlantic. What if any impact would this system have on Sandy? Could it prevent or block Sandy from moving east?

    1. They will probably remain independent of each other, and the eastern one will move out into the open sea while Sandy mills around then moves northward through the Caribbean to east of the Bahamas.

  43. As I have admitted in the past I am model illiterate and am so appreciative of everyone’s expertise on this blog. I have already learned so much from everyone who contributes here. I put the news on last night and heard word of this potential storm threat and could not wait to wake up and see what the true experts had to say. While I certainly don’t want a devastating storm here I have to admit that it is very exciting to follow what may or may not happen. I am counting on my friends here to keep me informed. 🙂

    1. Finally, I feel as if I am no,longer alone :). Although I can’t imagine any other forum where those of us who do not totally (I’m stretching it in my case) understand the details feel so welcome and included.

      Sue I second your comment that I’ve learned so much and that is exciting to follow whether it happens or not

  45. 4 members of the 18z GFS ensemble now track “this entity” over or west/southwest of New England. I saw this when I googled spaghetti plots.

      1. Hmmmmm how reliable are these?

        Also I didn’t see Barry mention a superstorm but was interested in coatals comment. I don’t remember Barry saying much this far ahead. Is it unusual for him

      2. Yes AceMaster, it was…….. and now, on the 0z run, there are more than 4 that show a hook left back towards the US East Coast.

  47. remember what happened last year…. Negative nao, tropical system then no negative nao then one storm in october. I am hoping this storm does not mess things up. :/

      1. He posted a pic of his big daddy hat on Twitter. Whenever he takes that thing out we usually get a big dud and the storm fizzles or goes out to sea

  50. When you all are discussing model runs such as ” 12 z euro” what does “12 z” refer to? I know euro is a computer model but not sure about the 12 z prefix. Thanks

  51. ML – it is in reference to Greenwich mean time. Here is a good description:

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/75/

    When talking about the models, it refers to the time each new model run comes out. The Euro model is run at 12z (about 2PM) and 0z (about 2AM) each day. The GFS (American) model is run four times a day (0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z or roughly 11PM, 5AM, 11AM, and 5PM each day – or one hour off depending on standard/daylight savings time)

  53. 0z GFS still out to sea – direct hit on Bermuda. Some subtle differences though – some more ridging in the west and the trough in the east looks more amplified. Shortwave is there too but Sandy is too far east by that time to phase. If the GFS slows down a bit and shifts track slightly N and W in subsequent runs, I can see the trough pulling it in.

    0Z Canadian still showing the bomb moving up the coast scenario. We’ll see if the Euro holds serve as well.

  54. Well, after this all plays out, one model is going to have the high respect factor and the other wont deserve our attention at all.

  55. 0z euro is putting its foot down, staying pat, for now. The heavyweight battle has lived another day, ding!

  56. MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES…
    MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM…INTO
    NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND
    MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER…A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GOING
    INTO NEXT WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN
    PLAINS STATES MAY TRY TO CAPTURE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM SANDY AS IT
    SLOWLY WORKS OUT OF CUBA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS A
    CONCERN TO SAY THE LEAST…ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF OP
    RUN AND ITS TRACK. NEEDLESS TO SAY…THIS IS JUST ONE OP RUN VS.
    OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. AT THIS POINT…USED A BLEND OF THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GFS AND 12Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW…ESPECIALLY
    AFTER SUNDAY

    1. Dont know how they can say its just one op run when there have been several runs that have shown this solution since 0Z monday

  57. EURO still holding serve!! If somehow this storm gets captured by that trough we could be looking at a historic storm none like we have seen here. I just have my doubts about it materializing.

  58. Here is the HPC write up for TS Sandy……

    AS FOR THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF THE ERN TROF AND T.S. SANDY…
    ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
    AN INTENSE SYSTEM FROM THE ATLC INTO THE ERN GRTLKS EARLY-MID
    WEEK. THE CANADIAN GLBL STILL APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS BIAS
    OF OVER-AMPLIFYING FLOW ON THE SERN PART OF THE ERN CONUS TROF
    WHICH OVER RECENT CMC RUNS HAS AT THE VERY LEAST TENDED TO CAPTURE
    T.S. SANDY PREMATURELY. HOWEVER ECMWF RUNS HAVE COMPARED SOMEWHAT
    MORE FAVORABLY TO ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WITH THE ERN TROF AND THUS
    CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. FOR NOW THE BEST APPROACH IS TO KEEP SANDY
    OFFSHORE THRU DAY 7 TUE BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THE
    EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM/NRN ATLC BY THAT TIME COULD
    OFFER POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE DRAWN NWWD SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

  59. Here something interesting I read from the NWS out of Upton NY
    FORECAST COMPLEXITIES ARISE LATE IN THE PERIOD…SPECIFICALLY WITH
    THE HANDLING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY DURING DAYS 6-7. REFER TO THE
    LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THE
    STORM.

    GLOBAL MODELS FEATURE A TRANSIENT OMEGA BLOCK…THAT TRANSLATES
    ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
    WEEK. THE ASSOC UPPER LOW FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS STEERED
    ALONG BY THIS FEATURES…WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GGEM FARTHEST WEST
    WITH A FUJIWARA EFFECT…WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM
    WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. AS FOR THE GEFS…7 OF THE 21 MEMBERS ARE
    NOW HINTING AT SOME SORT OF INTERACTIONS WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROF
    ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE LOW
    TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

    1. Interesting the mention of the Fujiwhara Effect. I read yesterday that experts think this was a factor in some of the worst hurricanes in our history including the Oct. Gale of 1878, 1937, and Hazel in 1954

      1. AceMaster I never heard of fujiwhara effect until reading that discussion. I still think we got a fish storm but anytime
        you have a storm on the east coast it needs to be watched.

          2. Def a good read. I feel like ive heard that term somewhere, might have been in a physics class at some point, i didnt listen well enough i guess, lol

      3. You read my mind AceMaster. I saw the term and wondered what it meant. Great information and great post also JJ

  60. So were are 7 days out and some of the models are still painting a ugly picture. I wonder when this will change to a less stormier scenario? Historic storms are not probable (likely), that’s why they are called historic.

  62. Still looking like a great weekend mid 60s and sunny. Fox 25 met just said he does not think storm will come here, but need to keep an eye on it. I agree. As I said last night, ots with the fish.don’t forget your winter snow total, deadline is I think 11/15.

  63. I sure did hear stories about 1938 from my mom. Amazing how little warning there was. She and her mom had gone to Boston for the day, taking the trolly and then train from Belmont. They made it back as far as Harvard Square where the trolly to Belmont had stopped running. They decided to walk (ugh) the 6-7 miles to their home. They got as far as across from Mt Auburn cemetery and trees and wires were falling all around them. A Belmont taxi drove by and the driver recognized them and stopped.

    I digress…………back to the topic. JJ and AceMaster and others, why is it you feel it will be a fish storm? Is there something you see that will kick it out as opposed to what I think you are saying about the trough pulling it in?

    1. I feel the trough coming in from the west will be enough to send Sandy on a northeast heading away from the U.S. Now with a
      track like there could still be impacts to the southeast coast with good size waves.
      This is still something needs to be watched. Keep in mind the EURO had the right idea with the westward movement with
      Issac and the GFS had the right idea with Debby sending it into Florida. I am favoring the GFS right now but I would not
      discount the EURO.

    2. Digress anytime 🙂 Vicki. Thanks for sharing your Mom’s adventure.
      This blog has taught me so much, and I believe that I may have learned another valuable lesson needed for predicting our weather; NOA must be negative for a significant NE storm to occur. Please advise if I’ve misunderstood NOA’s position pertaining to NE storms.
      Thanks 🙂 and everyone have an excellent Tuesday!

      1. Its been so long since we have been able to discuss all these things that all these terms like NAO seem to pop out of nowhere 🙂

  65. I don’t think its a fish storm, just not to the same magnitude that the EURO is showing. If what the EURO depicts is correct we could be in for a historic storm of epic proportions in our area.

  67. Be interesting what the 12z runs of the GFS and EURO have to say. Looking at Sandy on satellite it looks better organized to me today and convection trying to wrap around the center.

  68. Will be checking in with my husband’s family in Jamaica tonight and tomorrow to see how they fare the storm. Praying for their safety.

    1. I will pray for their safety too. I haven’t had chance to see how strong Sandy is but did see JJ’s comment it is going right over Jamaica.

      1. Thank you Sandy…they are located very close to where it looks to make landfall. Thankfully it will only be a Cat 1.

  69. Jamaica now under a hurricane warning. Looks like Sandy is going to go right over Jamaica.
    The track still looks the same with it heading north through Jamaica and Cuba. It goes into the Bahammas but then goes off to the northeast from there and away from the U.S.

  71. I thought Henry only put out his Big Daddy hat for snowstorms.

    Also, Henry is comparing the -NAO pattern to early June when we had a period of lousy weather. After thinking about it, I remember now the heavy rains we had around here.

    Isn’t it also possible to have a very negative NAO and still have a storm pass well out to sea?

    1. ok…for some reason the link didn’t translate….however if you go out to the MSL version of the ECMWF at 174 hours you will see what I mean.

      2. Darn I don’t know how to find it. I was looking at the projections on the weather channel and one other site (can’t remember) and they seem to all being agreeing that it will move out to sea – however, they also mention there is still great uncertainty.

        It seems to me that with all hurricanes/tropical storms lately, that the track is changing up until the last minute (i.e., expect the unexpected). Maybe I am using the word “lately” incorrectly since these guys seem to all have minds of their own

        1. Hi Vicky

          If you click on the link you can then pick the model of choice, the type of map (snowfall, MSL, etc) and the slider allows you to go out to whatever time range you want (within the boundaries of the model itself). Hope that helps.

          1. Wow – I found it – first I’m surprised at myself for finding it but also ………..that is amazing. Why is it you think this will not happen and I hope it does not.

            1. Well now after reading Matt Noyes’ take on this storm I think we will feel the effects one way or the other. Keeping my fingers crossed that this is a miss tho.

  73. In the winter of 09-10 we missed out on those big snowstorms since the NAO was too negative. The Mid Atlantic got clobbered and places like Baltimore and Philadelphia had their snowist winters on record.

    1. This is the strongest language ive heard so far from any Met regarding this storm. He sounds genuinely concerned and has come up with some stats to back up his concerns. I know it is early, but his points about our coastal areas starting to prepare for at least something are valid and should not be taken lightly.

      1. I had to read this comment twice…..”It’s important to note the overall predictability of the placement of each of these features now stands at 90%+ on the position of Sandy, 90%+ on the position of the ridge, and either side of 70% on the position of the Central US trough.”

        Those are pretty high percentages.

        It was a great read – thank you for posting it Coastal

  76. Is it bad of me to think I would love this to occur based on being a weather geek, but as a realist pray it doesn’t because of the damage!!

    1. Not at all, Hadi! I feel the same way – excited but concerned. That is what makes us weather-lovers and why we are all on this great blog.

      1. I think we all feel the same way. First, wanting something to happen doesn’t make it happen. Second, I don’t quite know how to say it, but there is nothing wrong with being excited and amazed and awed by a force of nature.

  77. My opinion on this potential storm is that it is way too early to know anything. But does anybody know if in the past with other storms, when the models all hinted at a big storm, did we get a big storm?

      2. Without putting a whole lot of thought into it is the blizzard of 1993 which was forecast before anything really even formed. I know it’s snow but it did all come together.

        1. I remember the Superstorm of 93 quite well. The snow was up to my knee caps. I was 9 at the time and I
          remember forecasters saying the big kahuna is coming Saturday and it came. They were using that language
          about 72-96 hours prior to the event.

          1. Our son’s 9th birthday party was scheduled for that weekend. He still remembers having to have it postponed 🙁

            1. I remember, it was my surprise 30th bday party, had to be rescheduled until the following week!
              Went to Gloucester with friends that Saturday morning to get me out of the house and the ride home turned into a white out blizzard… just made it back following a plow.

    3. is that showing that the system will be drawn up here because it can’t go out to sea?

      Wild guess on my part………very wild

  80. Thank you, john, coastal and Vicki! It will be interesting to see what/if anything develops. I am also curious to see when models will start to disagree – I’m guessing that will probably happen at some point.

    1. Hi Rainshine, the problem is they do disagree. The gfs takes the system out to see and the euro has a mega storm. Over the next few days you will see them come together on a solution. Euro better track record this far out.

        1. I have learned a lot since joining this blog but sometimes I still get confused by the models. Trying to keep up with all you smart weather people! 🙂

        2. hahahaha – there is so much to digest here that I think it’s impossible to take it all in. But it sure is fun to have things perking up for a bit!!!

          1. Sometimes some of the stuff goes way over my head! 🙂 In any case, I agree – it is fun to have things perking up!

      2. If I’m not mistaken doesn’t the GFS eventually back this storm in on by Wednesday or Thursday?

  81. 12Z EURO running…thru 42 hours, no changes other than Sandy being a bit stronger hitting eastern Cuba

    1. If this verified my business trip (academic conference) to Chicago would not happen. I’m flying American Airlines and they’re looking for excuses to cancel flights, so having a storm this powerful will definitely fit the bill of a (legitimate) excuse.

  89. I was just checking out water temps and wonder if anyone knows the average temps for this time of year (I’m guessing Tom may). Ocean is still in the low 60s in CT and RI and even at Woods Hole, 56 in Boston Harbor and even 55 in eastport and portland ME. How would this play – if at all -into holding a system together?

  93. Good point Hadi. With a pressure that low indicated by the 12z EURO if that were to play out and I don’t it will you are going to get big time impacts. Its going to be interesting to see if the EURO comes around to the GFS thinking or the GFS is going to come around to EURO solution.

    1. Wouldnt it be funny if they blinked at the same time ?

      Also, as Scott points out above, we’ve gone from 0 members of the GEFS ensemble at the 12z run yesterday, to 4 at the 18z run, to 6 at today’s 0z run to close to 10 members on this 12z run that capture this entity and bring it back to the coastline.

      1. Good point Tom. What exactly are the GEFS ensemble members? Is it still the GFS, just all the raw data of every single rep of the model?

        1. That’s what I was wondering too. I just took a look at the GFS on the WUN maps and it had the whole mess sailing out well below us on 1200z run.

        2. Oh boy, Acemaster. I could copy an explanation of what they are, but its not something I fully understand. I think I’ll leave this question to TK or JMA, so I can learn myself.

  96. I’m not sure the EURO is treating it as a hybrid. I only guess this because of its forecasted pressures. Its 951 mb S/SE of New England, rising slightly to 963 mb as it approaches the coastline, but then in only 12 hrs, the pressure has risen to 995mb. I’d think if it were a hybrid, then the pressure wouldnt rise so quickly once over land. I’d think these are pressure tendencies one might see with a purely tropical system.

  97. Here is the final discussion issuance from HPC a few minutes ago for their extended forecast discussion:

    “ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM
    IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS
    SANDY’S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
    WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN
    LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS
    SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA,
    THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A
    DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER.
    THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP
    POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR
    JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC
    TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB.
    THEREIN LIES THE STORM’S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING
    THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF
    PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY,
    OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS
    OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY
    DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE
    OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
    POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE
    CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

    HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE
    MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES
    BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW
    OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.”

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