What Is And What May Be

352 Comments

9:56PM

What Is: Decent weather Thursday through Saturday as narrow high pressure dominates. Not cloud-free the entire time, but pleasant.

What May Be: The weather from later Sunday through the final 3 days of October will be determined by the eventual track of Hurricane Sandy, her evolution toward a post tropical cyclone, and her interaction with a blocked jet stream pattern over North America and the North Atlantic. Instead of getting into grand detail at this stage, it is fair to say that most guidance is now in agreement that something is going to happen. The details are still yet to be worked out, but there is a decent chance of a large coastal storm impacting the region with wind and rain. The exact storm track and the extent of impact remain to be seen. Stay tuned…

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 58.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Possible rain/wind. Low 51. High 58.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Possible rain/wind. Low 52. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 55.

352 thoughts on “What Is And What May Be”

        2. Sue they have all been and continue to be in my prayers. I am sure they are all right too. And like AceMaster hope you hear very soon.

          1. We will try again later but hope to at least get a text from someone letting us know they are okay. I am sure they are fine and it will just be a bit before all communciations are restored. Thank you all for your concern.

  3. Thanks TK! With all this Sandy talk going on, I figured this would be a good time to return to Woods Hill Weather, New England’s only hype-free weather source.

  4. Thanks TK for the update. As much as I would prefer to see Sandy go well out to sea (I guess unlikely now) we could really use the rain. Logan is nearly 7.00″ (6.98″) below normal. Wow!

  5. Thanks, TK!

    Glad to be back on board with the blog as we approach my favorite season in New England. And as Shreedhar said above, I appreciate the frank, hype-free analysis.

    -David

  6. Hi Guys,

    I have been lurking around here for awhile I enjoy all the great comments. I’m definitely looking forward to the winter hopefully we get some big snowstorms. I just saw on the weather channel that Sandy has a pressure of 956mb isn’t that like a cat 2 or 3 hurricane?

  9. It’s ironic how the part of the Carribbean where Sandy formed and is strengthing quickly was unfavorable for development for a large part of the hurricane season.

  10. TK, I really appreciate your decision not getting too specific about Sandy just yet. There is still plenty of time to make any last minute preparations if necessary. No need to hype for now. 🙂

    I suspect, however, if you were working on TV or for AccuWeather, you would be required by your bosses to “pump up the volume” by now so to speak. 😉

    1. It isn’t easy to be in the public eye like Harvey, for example, and having to talk about impacts this far out.

  11. Because of the tropical nature of the storm, we could expect anywhere from 5 to 9 inches of rain, if the worst case scenario plays out, right?

    1. I would not expect rainfall amounts of that magnitude as the storm, even with a direct landfall, would have lost its tropical characteristics, and rainfall would have been redistributed through the storm structure. In this situation, it certainly would have to be watched for potentially several inches of rain in some locations.

        1. The atmosphere is fluid. There is bound to be some connection between Sandy and the trough to the west even if it is not completely captured by it. That would be your inverted trough depicted on the model run. 🙂

  15. Looks like the 0z GFS split the difference between the 12z an 18z runs with a landfall in Nova Scotia. The trough is negatively tilted but Sandy is too far east and doesn’t get captured and pulled back west until she is already north of Bermuda. After making landfall in NS, the storm travels SW to around Burlington, VT and wraps cold air around the south and east sides changing rain to snow down to the coastal plain by Thursday?? Am I seeing this right?? Meanwhile hundreds of miles NW in Hudson Bay Canada it’s too warm to snow.

    I don’t think the GFS has much of a clue right now. Here’s a good article why it is performing poorly on this storm:
    http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/10/stop-sandy-time-wed-1024-update/

  17. Pretty impressive crossing of Cuba by this Hurricane.

    Well, combined, the EURO and GFS work well as a team and can say that they have alerted the public to a strong storm making landfall anywhere between southern NJ and the eastern part of Nova Scotia. Well done ! 🙂

    1. Yea Tom, looks like Sandy didnt miss a beat as I think its just exiting off Cuba this morning if it hasnt already. Still seeing that “right handed” storm someone mentioned the other day with much of its convection extending east of its center. In WeatherWizard’s blog post from yesterday he said one thing to watch is the condition of Sandy after crossing the higher terrain of Jamaica and esp Cuba. I’ll have to read it again to see what his thoughts were but just wanted to point out Sandy is alive and well

  18. Just got back from 15 days on west coast of FL. Most days in 80’s and humid though the humidity disappeared at the end of the trip. Lots of Sandy talk from SE FL media. As for here, I would think the people who need to be most concerned about Sandy at this point are the utility companies. They can hardly afford a repeat of past performance.

  20. Trend has it going towards mid Atlantic, maybe. That would be good for us. Would come in a weaker fashion. I do feel we just get minor fringe effects from this. Of course I could be wrong, but I’ll lean that way.

  21. John, I don’t see that trend. I see euro (west) and gfs (east) and staying there consistently for the most part. If she makes land fall in New Jersey north to Connecticut we will feel the full effects and would be extreme.

  22. Weather wizard made a comment yesterday about Sandy’s interaction with Cuba and Jamaica. If she weakened while crossing these areas, it would change the effect on what we may experience. She has or is about to move off the coast of Cuba and back into the waters. During her land crossing she has remarkable become stronger, which is alarming to me. I wonder what this means for us?

    1. lol coastal, i was posting the same thing, re: my post to Tom above. I was going to read WeatherWiz’s blog again to try and understand what this means

    1. Welcome back longshot – I was wondering in the night if you were back and hoping you would be here for the discussion. Hope you had a good trip!

  24. Yesterday From WW: (Ok so that didn’t happen!!!! Now what? 🙂 )

    “Many people have already looked past Jamaica and Cuba and are forecasting for the East Coast. This is a big red flag because the high terrain of these places could throw a curve ball at us in terms of track and future of Sandy. The high terrain could destroy and do weird things with tropical systems.

    Sandy is currently on track to pass over some rough terrain. This will disrupt Sandy at least a little. A few things are running through my mind while this storm passes Cuba:

    1) Sandy gets completely destroyed by the higher terrain and we are left wondering what storm. This would be the least likely solution obviously.

    2) Sandy interacts with the higher terrain and comes off to the west of where model guidance has it.

    3) The inflow from Sandy gets disrupted and dry air gets entrained as it departs as winds come down the higher terrain leading to drying. This cuts off the convection on the eastern quadrants further supporting a more westward motion.

    So 1 of my thoughts would prevent a storm altogether, but the other 2 would favor a major storm possibility along the Northeast.
    EUROPEAN
    NEW 00z A big hit for the Northern Middle Atlantic with track going inland just south of NYC into PA”

  25. I continue to be incredibly impressed with each and every meteorologist. TK and Keith-Hingham, I think they somehow got the vibes you sent out about educating the public. Friends and my family have all said they understand more than they ever did about the models. No one feels this is being hyped but instead is being presented in a very thoughtful manner by just letting the viewers know what could AND could not happen.

  26. Thanks, TK!

    And welcome back Shreedhar and DS! Also, welcome back Longshot! Hope you enjoyed your time in FL.

    Looks like another exciting day in the weather-world. Things seem to keep changing by the hour. I find it kind of strange that the storm picked up in intensity after going over land.

    Sun is out in Sudbury and a pretty morning.

  27. Here is part of WeatherWizard’s blog post from yesterday regarding Sandy’s interaction with Cuba and what this may mean for us. #1 and #2 did not happen. #3 may have happened looking at the water vapor loop but i dont see a reduction in convection on the eastern side which would have supported a more western solution. Interesting to see how Sandy organizes today over water again.

    “Sandy is currently on track to pass over some rough terrain. This will disrupt Sandy at least a little. A few things are running through my mind while this storm passes Cuba:
    1) Sandy gets completely destroyed by the higher terrain and we are left wondering what storm. This would be the least likely solution obviously.
    2) Sandy interacts with the higher terrain and comes off to the west of where model guidance has it.
    3) The inflow from Sandy gets disrupted and dry air gets entrained as it departs as winds come down the higher terrain leading to drying. This cuts off the convection on the eastern quadrants further supporting a more westward motion.
    So 1 of my thoughts would prevent a storm altogether, but the other 2 would favor a major storm possibility along the Northeast.”

  29. WW posted this morning on BZ

    Sandy Analysis
    The potential is increasing for a major/historic storm for portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast****

    Sandy has hit Cuba as a strong category 2 hurricane. Now we are going to get a better handle of the track of Sandy in the coming days as one of the bigger obstacles is almost over.

    Sandy was a bit east of the projected track but it is nothing significant. The main story in the short term will be an upper level low that will merge with Sandy in the short term. This will create a favorable environment for convection to blossom with Sandy and pressures to continue to fall. More importantly it will draw Sandy to the Northwest. This will be transitioning away from tropical characteristics so the pressure drops will not correspond with wind speeds. Basically this means a deepening Sandy will not mean stronger winds! It will be expanding the strong winds over a wide area. This is why this system will be very dangerous since it will impact a widespread area with very strong winds.
    NOGAPS and EUROPEAN models are in agreement. UKMET and CMC are in agreement. Right now anything in between these two sides has equal chances of a major storm coming inland. The new European was shifting east a little bit in the earlier frames but it sped up the energy in the trough that phases with Sandy. As a result we have a similar ending to the 12z run (tad north on 00z).

  31. Channel 5 met jc Monahan is saying two of there very best computer models taking the mid Atlantic route, in which case would spare us the worse. However two of least unreliable models have it going the other way, which would be worse for us. Basically its a coin toss.

    1. I don’t know who JC is, John, since I tend to watch 7 and 4 and read the 5 blogs. I was just watching the video on 5 and the woman talking had it as a very certain strike.

      The one thing I noticed is she said that if it goes into the Delmarva Penninsula area that is a better scenario for us rather than right into MA. That makes sense except since it is a right-handed storm and if it does hit MA directly wouldn’t we be on a better side than if it hit south of us?

      1. I didn’t explain that well. Working and typing doesn’t help.

        Al Roker said this morning that if the system comes in around NY/NJ it will be devastating for areas north of that into New England because we’d be on the worst side. It seemed the woman on 5 was saying the opposite and we’d be spared if it comes in NY/NJ. Perhaps I misunderstood her.

      2. It is a right-handed storm now, but if the model depictions are correct (the ones that are hitting south of us), the interaction with the upper level low digging into the deep south and the trough will enhance the left side of Sandy. The eastern side will weaken as it is being squeezed by the ridge in the Atlantic. I think if it hits anywhere south of say northern NJ, the northeastern side wont have as severe impacts as areas to the south.

  32. Im rooting for a miss. I had a front row seat for the 1991 no name storm. Major destruction, just horrible.

  33. Ace, that is correct, inland areas to the west will have the heaviest rain and flooding however coastal impacts will be worse in southern New England with an extended period of strong east winds if the storm passes to the south. It will push a ton of water in from the ocean (essentially a storm surge). The full moon won’t help either.

    1. I was going to comment on the storm surge, so I’ll just add to yours. 🙂

      That coastline in the NYC area is fairly concave and in essence, there could be two storm surges at play. Obviously, one comes from the strong east-southeast winds. But the other one comes from the ocean level rise under the low pressure of the storm. I’d think usually, that passes by the coast because, usually the storm is moving parallel to the coastline. However, in this case, its going to be directed nearly perpendicularly right into the coastline with this unusual southeast to northwest storm track.

      1. That’s a good point Tom. If the Euro plays out, the impacts to the NYC area could potentially be far worse than Irene.

  36. What is the 12z NAM doing!? Sends the storm due west into Miami and then it does a loop de loop and heads back north over the Bahamas to just off the coast of the Outer Banks at hour 84.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  37. Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
    “The decision point of the storm for going out or hitting is when it gets the 32N or about same Lat as Charleston, Sc. Sat Nite.”

    I’m sorry, but that just isnt acceptable. Thats like 36 hours notice. Not nearly enough time to make preparations, esp if it comes in on the southern end of guidance which will be even sooner.

  38. I might be off base, but from what I’m seeing from the models I think the storm may take a similar path up the coast as Irene…

    1. Similar, but instead of hugging the coast it is going to make a landfall coming in at an angle (SE to NW trajectory). I think this poses a more serious risk for storm surge impacts.

  40. Have a question and will not hold any answers firmly because I know it’s all in the air still. I have an acquaintance who is supposed to flyto Bermuda Sunday. She and her husband are thinking of canceling their trip. Is there a potential problem for Bermuda?

      2. Thank you VERY MUCH. I sent your comment and link along with a reminder that weather is not predictable.

        And I would cancel the trip as well………and sadly my family knows I would…….because I wouldn’t want to miss being here either.

  41. From Joe Lundberg’s post at Accuweather:

    “If you’ve been a reader for years, you know I’m not one given to hyping events all that often. I am reluctant to do it here, especially days before anything happens with still so much uncertainty, but given the evidence before me, I feel compelled to reiterate many of the concerns I’ve voiced the past few days about the potential deadly impacts of this storm.

    1) Storm surge. Putting numbers to it, we may be looking at a 5- to 10-foot surge near and to the northeast of the landfall point. Remember, the full moon is Monday, so the tides are already going to be abnormally high, so that only increases the height of high tides.

    1a) Coastal destruction. This includes many things in combination with the storm surge, the pounding waves and the high winds. This could literally rearrange the coastline, cutting new channels that previously never existed, and severely damaging homes, businesses and infrastructure.

    2) High winds over a wide area. As the storm comes north, it will undergo a transformation to something other than purely tropical. Essentially, that will result in an expansion of the wind field, instead of concentrating the highest winds in a smaller area near the core of the storm. In turn, not just the point of landfall may be bracing for winds of 60 to 80 mph or more. It could be over a 200- or 300-mile-wide swath in the worst case scenario, which would lead to widespread downed trees and power outages, extending well inland.

    3) Excessive rains. This storm will bring its environment with it from the tropics. As the colder air associated with the upper-level trough and the attendant cold front get injected into it, rather than destroy the storm, it would be like giving it a shot of steroids. That’s why some of the pressure forecasts are so extremely low. In turn, this should squeeze that tropical moisture out and produce 5 to 10 inches of rain in many areas, perhaps even higher amounts. That equates to a lot of flooding inland.

    4) Heavy wet snow. This will be restricted to the southwest quadrant of the storm, and probably to the higher ground of central and western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. While many trees in these areas have lost their leaves, not all have, and even a few inches of heavy wet snow could add to the carnage. And the potential is there for much, much more.”

    1. Was just reading that over on his blog! 🙂

      As you can see, ive gotten nothing done at work today…correction, nothing done all week

        1. Scott 77 – thank you!

          Wow – and I think like everyone else, I focus for about 2 minutes on work and then find myself popping back in here to see what the latest developments are.

          Ugh also

  43. 12z GFS coming closer in line with the Euro and other models with a direct hit on Long Island and CT. 948mb low at landfall.

  45. Chris Lambert at 12:30 showed a map with all but one model bringing it in south of us around NJ/NY. One model brought it directly into MA and one north of here.

  46. Why do I have a gut feeling that the storm is going to hit north of here, near Maine or north and then retrograde? I’m prob’ly way off base. Watched Melissa at noon and that scenerio is a possiblity ‘though general agreement goes for landfall south of here, like NJ or NY. I have nothing to back up my “feeling” – just a feeling. In any case, it looks now highly unlikely for it to be a total miss and we certainly are going to get something.

    1. Definitely going to get somthing. The question is what. Does this baby come at us full throttle or a run of the mill nor Easter, or some minor fringe effects. Going with my gut feeling and she goes mid Atlantic. Probably some high surf to contend with, little bit of wind and rain, that’s it. Close but no cigar. I hope.

    2. Some times that just a feeling works. I have the feeling that this could have been bad, but wont be. The feeling like we our dodging something really big.

      1. Thanks, john! I know what you mean. Sometimes I feel that way, too. I don’t have any feelings that it will or won’t be bad – just kind of nervous/excited about it. I am hoping your feelings about the storm are right! 🙂

  47. Most folks seem to think it will make an impact on us in some way and I hope we all “weather” it in good shape

  48. I’m deciding one whether to get a generator or not. It was tough with two small kids at home with Irene. We’ve loss power three times in two years. But is $600 investment worth it?

  50. After Sandy, the NAO is forecast to stay negative thru at least the first full week of Nov, keeping the chance of more east coast storms and an atmosphere that looks more like I-95/93 during rush hour

  51. I was contacted by OS. He is doing great, Healthy! Work has him buys but he will check in at some point.

  53. Hello All.

    Coastal contacted me today and because of him and all you good people here,
    I’ve decided to participate again. Thank you all for the kind words.

    Please forgive me If someone already posted this and I hope it is still ok to do so:

    12Z GFS:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121025%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_132_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=132&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=10%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=43&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    Please note that after this frame it move SW toward NYC and then move NEwd into
    Vermont.

    This should be interested. Waiting for Euro.

    Old Salty

  55. If Sandy were to make landfall somewhere around NY/NJ, how severe would our weather be? Especially since the storm could have a very large wind field (60-80 mph) extending out 200-300 miles.
    Also, does this type of hybrid storm contain the risk of tornadoes?

    1. It depends shotime, the distance from say Boston to NYC is close to 200 miles. If the center of Sandy comes ashore south of there, around say central NJ, ur looking at another 75 miles or so. While I dont think we see the worst effects in terms of rainfall and winds, i think the coastal flooding from surge would be the greatest threat to the MA and RI coast. Not sure about tornados.

      1. If Sandy makes land fall along Long Island, I feel the effects would be much greater than what we experienced with Irene. I’m more concerned with the wind then I am with the rain.

        We should have a contest to see who can pin point land fall.

            1. Ok – please everyone as always make sure I specifically tell you I have seen and recorded your guess. There are a lot of posts and I’m out tonight so could miss it

  57. Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

    I never thought I would see another Super Outbreak after 1974. It happened. I never thought I’d see another Perfect Storm. Its happening.

  65. Vicki, I am still thinking more of a northern New England landfall. That’s my gut feeling. However, if I have to go by what most of the mets. are saying, put me down for Monmouth, NJ.

  66. For a Delmarva landfall the phase occurs very early on the EURO thus bringing it much futher south. I see a Atlantic City NJ landing.

    1. Its fine for now but once it transitions overs to a extra-tropical system I would go with the global models.

  70. What would the difference for our area be in intensity between a NYC landfall and say a NJ/Delaware landfall? Would we even have effects from the latter?

  71. Old Salty welcome back!!! I look forward to your thoughts on Sandy and when winter storms threaten.
    For a landfall I will go with central New Jersey.

  72. If you are going to guess the landfall, please list a town. You can easily use goggle to select a town. It would make it easier to figure out who was closets.

  75. The latest NHC track has it going slightly to the NNW before turning it NNE, then eventually back in to the NW. I have not seen this initial NNW movement yet, it is still moving due north, and have seen a slight wobble to the east in the last couple frames on satellite

  77. In light of the 12z EURO, in which I supremely trust, Block Island RI….with a storm surge that will make Hurricane Bob’s storm surge look like a ripple. Sorry for the hype. 🙂

    1. I keep thinking about Hadi’s comments. Going from Tropical to Sub-Tropical. I wonder how that plays out.

    3. Oh wait……..

      That was the UK Met I was looking at. I do really trust the EURO, but will stick with the choice above anyway………. I’m mentally exhausted from parent teacher conferences. 🙂

        1. I’m sure…… That was a topic in school today amongst the faculty and the thought of losing days, not due to snow is not something anyone wants to see.

  80. Sampling data should be much better as we get into tonight and tomorrow. Once we hit 12 Z tomorrow I would start believing the global models for landfall.

  81. Wind field will spread out significantly once it makes landfall. We do not want to be in the NE quadrant.

  82. One thing about the EURO, if I am reading it correctly and maybe on other models as well……the initialized pressure is 989 mb and the pressure now is 963 mb…….

    1. Mark, I guess we both kind of agree on that one. I guessed Monmouth, NJ. Don’t know if that’s the same as Monmouth Beach, NJ.

      1. Monmouth is a county in NJ that encompasses several towns, one of which is Monmouth Beach (had to look it up myself).

  84. Final write up from HPC for extended forecast…..

    PRELIMINARY UPDATE…

    DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
    ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION’S
    SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
    HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
    TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
    A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
    THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
    ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
    TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
    SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
    INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
    LINES OF “FRANKENSTORM”, AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY’S GOTHIC
    CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

    AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING
    A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS
    RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A
    FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
    CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL
    HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND
    UNSETTLED.

    FINAL…

    UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID
    LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND
    GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE
    ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT
    FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR
    AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
    POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
    RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
    ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST.

  87. On satellite, impressive ventilation of this feature already to its west, north and northeast. I figure as it approaches the coastline and the trof interacts with it, the outflow or fanning of high cloudiness, particularly northward into Canada should look amazing on the satellite picture.

  88. I bet TC says it won’t be as bad as everyone’s saying 🙂 and I’m not sure it’s gonna be bad either but will c

  92. Personally I believe we will be in the northeast quadrant but to far northeast to really get affected, I believe it makes landfall somewhere between Virginia beach and NYC, I think it’s mainly a rain event with some wind gust to 35-40 mph 🙂

    1. On the contrary, if it makes a direct landfall over NYC, we will be GREATLY affected with flooding rains and dangerously high wind gusts, unfortunately!

      1. I agree but there’s a trend of it going south of NYC already and that trend continues, I think we will begin to hear that most of the action will be mainly the mid Atlantic

          1. I think Virginia Beach to Atlantic City is in the line of fire, and the reason I think we don’t get more than rain and some gusty 30-40 mph winds is bc it continues to move westward into Pennsyvania and continuing into Canada and northern Maine 🙂

    2. The storm becomes a bigger storm as it loses it’s tropical characteristics and the wind field grows larger; thus, even a NYC landfall would greatly impact SNE.

        1. This is the far western solution which may be an outlier. Again, I hope you’re right but it’s way too early to be able to predict the storm track with certainly. It’s fun to try, however:) I’m going with a NYC and CT path. Reason? Negative tilt is present but too anomolous for this time of year for a mid-atlantic landfall. Still feel there will be enough digging to stear the storm up the coast but not as far west as the western outliers depict. Will see how it all materializes. I would say that SNE needs to keep an eye as model solutions converge and as conditions warrant. Let’s not make the mistake of falling asleep on this potential perfect storm 2012.

            1. Thanks John. These storms are typically of interest to me. However, my wife and I just purchased a new construction home and this time hoping for a miss. I’m not so sure I can say that will happen.

            1. And I respect yours…And that is right. It’s just an opinion at this point and until it happens;)

  93. I’d think the expanding wind field will even be exagerated more to the north and east of the center because of a huge pressure gradient between the very low pressure of the storm and the fairly strong high pressure in eastern Canada.

    1. Good observation Tom. Not to mention, the strongest winds are typically found north and east of the center. A storm to our east means less wind. A storm to our west = higher wind impact. Hence a NYC/CT path could be destructive to SNE.

  94. I just agree with Charlie. I think when all said and done, this is just a basic rain and wind storm. This is one storm I would be happy to see go away. We start getting a good look at the track tomorrow.

  95. The amount of hype with Last years Irene was like watching a bad movie, I wanted my money back haha 🙂

    2. Each storm must be handled individually regardless of history. This is how some people get burned and lose loved ones when the guard is down and anticipate “it will never happen to me.” 😉

  96. Charlie and Alisonarod and anyone else – if you have specific cities/towns and want me to list them, just put my name in your post. Or you could put them on gardening and I’ll be sure to look there. I’m heading out in about 15 minutes for a few hours.

  98. I have JJ’s and Alisonarods – I’m going to post the ones I have on the gardner topic so I don’t clog here

  100. Landfall will be unknown until Sat, too many variables until then.

    Charlie, Irene was devastating for VT.

  102. I’m in the car and can’t even stay away from this blog. Irene certainly did devastate Parts of VT and NH. Im working on putting all of the guesses on a map if I can figure how to do it Will add locations during the day tomorrow.

  104. 18z GFS has moved southwestward a bit….

    In general, I wonder what kind of warm surge with very high humidity could move into eastern New England and as that is moving inland, what kind of bands of rain could develop with that. And also, if the airmass is warmer and more humid, might that make it easier for the winds to ramp up, as opposed to being under a more stable, cooler airmass. And might we be in a prime location of the storm for a general tornado watch ?

  105. I remember with Irene, at least in Newton MA were
    It not for all the reporting one wouldn’t have known it was
    Anything other than a rainy, windy Sunday . Is
    Sandy likely to be any ” more” than this in eastern MA? Or just too early to know…?

    2. Well without any reporting most of the south shore knew that Irene was out there last year. On my property we had downed trees, shingles and shutters came off the house and I lost a couple of antennas. In Norwell where I work (the medical center) we lost power for 4 days while some parts of Norwell were out for a week.

      1. Pembroke had no school for four days. Lots of trees in the neighborhood were downed as well as all over town.lost power a couple of times as well.

    3. It’s more monday and Tuesday ml. I’ve giving my thoughts, for what its worth. A basic rain and wind storm.

      1. I think for those of us in eastern MA you are right John…maybe quite a different story around NYC, coastal NJ and DE.

          1. We just celebrated our 50th anniversary. We are building a new building near the Old Wearguard building not too far from where we are now. I do the purchasing for the med center (5 sites).

              1. Dr. Nalband (jr) is still there. He’s in his early 60s and is a great guy. He’s also the Medical director now.

                1. Sounds right. I’m 41 and went there through my teens. Does he have a beard. I was in the purchasing field myself for a hospital. I know the field well.

                2. He does have a beard. I’ve been doing the purchasing there for 6 years. Before that I worked in accounting and purchasing for a telecom reseller in Boston. For some reason I had to post below my post as I wasn’t able to post a comment under your comment

            2. I may be heading there tomorrow with my 6-year old son. Love SSMC!!! The doctors and nurses saved my younger sons life. Long story for another day but I have great love for the staff there.

  106. ML if it ends making landfall as the 18Z GFS or EURO are showing then the effects will not be all that bad here, but any landfall near NYC is a different ballgame.

  108. This is for Rainshine (or anyone else who has access to a shortwave radio). The Hurricane net has been activated on 14325khz (USB). Secondary frequency will be 7268 (LSB). It will be active pretty much while there is a threat to land. For those who don’t have a shortwave radio it is also streamed live at the following web site

    http://www.hwn.org/

  109. HI ALL!

    Just sitting down after a very busy day on the run (appointments, etc. and parents’ 59th anniversary!)

    Couple things really quickly…

    1) If you have a post awaiting moderation, I will be going through the messages by 8PM.

    2) I will also be reading all the comments (and there are over 250) and replying where necessary.

    3) Hoping to have a full blog update by 10PM, sooner with luck.

    Carry on!

  110. Here are some current observations in southeast FL and the Florida Keys…..

    Homestead, FL : NE @ 30, gusting to 41

    Ft. Lauderdale : NE @ 28, gusting to 40

    Virginia Key : NE @ 30, gusting to 55

  111. Latest IR imagery still shows lots of convection to the east side of Sandy. WeatherWiz mornings blog said if that’s the case it could bring Sandy a bit more east of forecast.

    Even if Sandy comes ashore along NJ I think we see effects at least equivalent to Irene, minus all the rain that occurred in VT.

    1. Important to take note of the size of the wind field, the fact there will be a high to the north, and the astronomical high tide due to full moon. Trouble brewing. I’d say early on that the worst coastal flooding will be southeast-facing coastal areas, especially southern side of the islands, RI, CT, and Long Island, and of course further south depending on the exact track. A track on the northern side of the ‘cone’ would be more problematic for the eastern MA/NH/ME coastal areas.

      The wind field may be more significant that many people anticipate. Unless the center comes in south of NJ, expect winds stronger than what most areas saw in Irene.

        1. Yes Vicki. Btw, I lived in Stoughton at the time and we lost power for almost one entire week. We had well water and thus no electricity = no water. Ugh! Again, this time the wind field is much larger. Therefore, SNE should experience at least tropical storm force winds even with a center several hundred miles to our southwest. A closer pass (which is what I think will occur) means increased consequences. Ugh!

          1. Uh oh. No water. Ill just hope for me to,lose power :). And thank you for your answer. Can I assume then the winds would also be more prolonged?

            I know Patrick has warned the utilities to be ready although I think he’d be better served to suggest the people prepare. And NSTAR has been cutting trees all along its power lines. But for Irene and the Halloween storm in our area it was trees on private property and even more arcing that overloaded the transformers.

          2. Why do you think a closer path will happen. That would be bad for us all around, correct. Percentage wise how do you see this closer path. My gut just tells me not that bad here, mid Atlantic track.

      2. Winds were strong with Irene esp in eastern sections hence the tree damage and power outages. My question is about what kind of winds. In a true tropical system, the winds are more gusty and become stronger in rain bands. With Sandy being the hybrid type, will the strong winds be more constant/sustained rather than gusty?

        1. I think sustained winds will be stronger without much trouble. This will be a storm completing extratropical transition with high pressure north of it. Expanding wind field against a high pressure wall. That air has no choice but to go faster…

          1. Tornadoes would not be likely in this setup as the storm will be post tropical and the low level wind shear needed will not be as prevalent.

            1. Thank you TK. Tornadoes are scary anyway but If it comes in overnight any possibility of tornadoes makes me especially nervous.

  112. I did hear from one of my step-daughters in Jamaica and she said the place is a mess. They have no electricity or running water right now but everyone in our family is safe and that is obviously more important.

    1. Thank heavens they are all okay. I can’t imagine the mess it must be. Thank you for letting us know Sue

  113. Henry Mar’s talking disaster of epic proportions – particularly for NJ/ny
    Any validity here?? Talking about windows shattering due to pressure.
    I come here for my storm analysis! Nice to see so many familiar names from WBZ blog in a friendly / respectful environment. Thanks TK, I glean so much from your posts.
    Kev

  114. Hi Everyone! Just read through all the comments. Wish I could have posted earlier today, but my work blocks the site as an untrusted one and on my work cell too! Vicki, are you still taking landfall points?

    Welcome back Old Salty and Alisonarod!

    1. I am still taking them. I post away. I have recorded TKs yet because I’m not at my computer so will do yours at the same time

  115. Been watching TWC coverage of Sandy which has been on-going tonight instead of their regular programming. Not usually a fan of TWC but ive gotta say, they are doing a superb job of covering this thing. Much less sensationalism and more analysis of the situation from a meteorlogical standpoint. Im hooked.

          1. I don’t see any reason two people can’t pick the same spot. Even the few I started plotting on the map are basically on top of each other. Since I have no weather knowledge do I get to make rules 😀

  118. Really wanna stay up to see the NHC track update at 11 but this is exhausting, lol, dont know if ill last that long

    2. I know what you mean! Last night I stayed up on the IPad watching the GFS come in and then the puppy woke up at 5!

  119. Welcome back old friends and especially to you Old Salty! 🙂

    Btw to all…it is okay to post sometimes during the boring weather as well. 😉

  120. On the latest GEFS ensembles, NJ is covered in pink, with a few strands of spaghetti into CT and eastern Mass. Not one member shows out to sea.

  121. I recorded North, TK and Captain –

    Has anyone posted a guess that I didn’t acknowledge. I’m shutting the computer down for the night but will make notes on my iPad and update the database in the morning

      1. I’m still having trouble wrapping my head around having winds here higher than Irene if it lands in NJ. A friend said tonight that shed heard it will make NJ landfall so we are out Of the woods. I sure hope the mets stress we are not. It is a logical thought process to think we are

  123. Its now a question of where Sandy comes ashore. The wind field is expanding and its a possiblity for some areas for to not have power during the same time there was no power last year after snowtober. Northeast of where Sandy comes ashore will get the worst of the weather.

  124. At around 10:45 will see if the trend continues south and west, if it continues the trend we’ve seen the last 12 hrs we should be fine 🙂

    1. This morning it was NYC and conn landfall and now it’s predicted landfall is around central nj, by morning there will be a landfall somewhere around southern nj I think

      2. I’m not sure you can compare this entity to a normal summer hurricane, where the strongest winds are very close to the center and then as you move some distance away, they appreciably slacken off.

        This will be a different animal, as has been talked about on the blog today.

        Also, there’s going to be high pressure to the northeast of New England and all that cool, dense air of autumn is going to want to rush towards a very low pressure area, even if it is all the way down into southern NJ.

        1. I understand but instead of 70 mph winds within 100 miles of center it will be 30-50mph everywhere but that’s just a moderate nor’easter, I’m not jumping in the bandwagon of a damaging storm, I’m gonna wait till tommorrow to see if model runs continue south and west, as always respect your opinion, another thing with the leaves off the trees we won’t have to deal with tree damage as much 🙂

          1. Charlie we haven’t lost any leaves here. In our yard or in the woods behind. They are still totally green

  125. The new track will come out at 11pm. These tropical systems have minds of their own so will see what happens. Don’t focus on where the landfall happens since this system has a big wind field impacts will be felt well inland.

  127. Just heard at least 12 reported deaths in Cuba. Some areas have extensive tree damage with no trees left standing. One town reported heavy damage to old colonial buildings that have been standing untouched since the 1700’s! I suspect Sandy was even stronger than advised, possibly briefly a Cat 3 just looking at the satellite when it came onshore and hearing the damage reports. The emergency official said they were not prepared and caught off guard by the intensity and how quickly it strengthened more than forecasted. She said Cuba is usually proactive about hurricanes and orders mandatory evacs of prone areas. Not this time unfortunately. Just goes to show how unpredictable the weather can be even with all the technology out there. Needless to say, Sandy has been and will continue to be unpredictable and nothing close to a normal behaving storm.

  128. Matt Noyes was just showing a potential wind gust map based on the current track and showed most of southern NE in the 60+ gust area and the southern CT and RI in the 80+ gust area.

  129. 0z NAM at hour 84 has the center of the storm just south of RI and eastern LI. Central pressure at 976mb not nearly as low as some of the other models.

      1. Looks like the center of the cone brings it in near Atlantic City. Interesting that they expect it to maintain hurricane status/strength up to 8PM Monday when it is just offshore Maryland.

    2. Heck, it’s your blog… you could probably edit the earlier posts and claim you said Atlantic City the first time around! 😉

        1. I’m suprised tk your saying more intense than Irene with earlier comments, have a good day and thanks 🙂

          1. The major difference is the configuration of the wind field. Irene was still tropical, but smaller and weakening.

            If the forecast track is reasonably close to accurate, Sandy will be extratropical, or nearly so, has a much larger circulation, and is up against high pressure to the north.

  134. I am now thinking the center comes into Atlantic city or even south of there, can I change my guess to northern Virginia Beach?

    1. It also wants to move east to west once it gets east of north carolina and it doesn’t get much closer than 250-300 miles south of here, the forecast looks better and better with each model run 🙂

  135. Hold your horses Charlie! 0z GFS track has shifted back north with landfall in eastern LI. 952 mb low at landfall. Would be a major impact for all of SNE.

  137. Wow, the GFS does a loop from eastern LI, down the NJ coast and back around to eastern LI, battering us from late Mon night straight through Wednesday.

  138. And what’s that on the 0z Canadian!? Landfall around Portsmouth NH?? Are the models suddenly seeing something to cause this jog in the track back northeast?

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