What Will Be Sandy’s Shore?

578 Comments

1:59AM

There is still enough spread in the guidance to keep me from getting too confident on the track of Sandy, and precisely which shore she will land upon, and at what intensity, and even whether or not she will still be a tropical system.

I realize the above paragraph makes me sound confused and uncertain, but that’s not the case. Just noting that there is still significant room for error, I will now give my best guess of how the next several days will play out, including the details of the storm.

Friday: A weak boundary between cool air to the north and east and milder air coming from the southwest will hold some areas of clouds in to start the day but most of these will evaporate and move away with sunshine and milder air being dominant during the day and some patchy fog forming at night.

Saturday: A cold front approaches from the west but falls apart against the approaching circulation from Sandy, leaving the day partly sunny and mild and the night fair but with once again some patchy fog.

Sunday: The large circulation of Sandy will make itself known in the form of a northeast breeze and eventually a chance of some rain or drizzle moving in from the Atlantic. At this time, Sandy will still be a hurricane moving northeastward off the coast of the Carolinas.

Monday-Wednesday / Sandy’s Impacts: Sandy will be captured by a trough of low pressure moving into the East Coast States and be drawn north to northwest while losing tropical characteristics and weakening slightly. During this process, the wind field associated with Sandy will expand, as is typical for this kind of transition. High pressure to the north will also have an impact, enhancing winds on the north side of the storm. Threats from Sandy for southern New England will be coastal flooding, some heavy rain, and wind damage from strong easterly winds. The degree of impact will be determined by the track of the storm, as its position will relate directly to the placement of strongest winds and heaviest rain. My best guess as of this posting is that the center of Sandy will reach the New Jersey shore late Monday night or Tuesday morning as a storm that recently lost tropical characteristics after weakening to just below hurricane intensity. Regardless of any weakening and loss of tropical air, Sandy will be a large storm and impact a significant area. In southern New England, this track would mean pounding surf with coastal flooding, most significant along the South Coast, and some heavy rain with localized flooding possible from it, and strong northeast to east wind with some damage possible. The worst of this should take place Monday night into Tuesday. The center of Sandy will do a loop and then should eventually lift more to the north by Wednesday. With luck some drier air coming around the storm’s circulation will get involved and conditions will improve slightly for Halloween. Also, keep in mind that the final track of  the storm is not 100% certain. A further southward track would lessen the impact in the region while a track a bit further north would result in more significant impact.

Forecast details for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Clouds giving way to sun. Highs 63-68. Winds variable to S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 55-60. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind developing. Low 51. High 58.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind continuing. Low 52. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/breezy. Low 51. High 63.

578 thoughts on “What Will Be Sandy’s Shore?”

  4. A couple things……..

    The latest GEFS ensemble, many of the members edged ever so slightly northeast, where the majority of them are taking that northwest curve right into extreme SW Connecticut or NYC……

    The pressure forecasts of this entity, as has been, are amazing. At least now, the EURO’s initialized pressure seems more in the ballpark of what the actual pressure is.

    Even the tropical models, in their forecast intensity have a slight upward reintensification in the winds at about the 84 hr mark from now.

    Alright, today’s weather looks awesome and I get to be out in it on a field trip !

    1. Not too repeat myself, but I think we escape this with no problems. Run of the mill nor easter tops. I think by tonight, tomorrow morning we start to see this clearly. Again this is great if it happens, which I believe will. Looking forward to some time off next week, And a dry Halloween.

  8. Its just a question of how big the impacts will be here in SNE. GFS really bad and the EURO bad as it stands right now. I think we get something in between those two solutions and I am thinking a central NJ landfall. I have Belmar, NJ as where this will make landfall.

  10. One can not wish that Sandy hits the east coast anywhere, but right now I am not convinced, in my own amateur way, that it will hit as far south as currently forecasted.

    I have looked at lots of “stuff” on the Internet and I am left wondering whether Sandy will first curve further east than anticipated before curving west again and if so would Sandy arrive closer to NJ and NYC.

    For the met types here, I have a question. Would you say the models today are more or less divergent than yesterday? TIA.

  11. Longshot, i think they are less divergent than yesterday in terms of all of them having some sort of hit on the coast. However, if the divergence stays the way it is (anywhere from MD to Long Island) the implications increase as we get closer. A hit in MD means much less of an impact here IMO. A hit on Long Island and we will feel the full brunt of this. Im hoping by end of day today or early in the weekend it will be narrowed down to say 75 – 100 miles instead of 300+ mile divergence. I am hesitant to even look at the GFS for the simple reason that it didnt pick up on as east coast hit till late and it has not been consistent since. The EURO, while shows a far south hit, seems likely given its consistency all along with this.

    1. I agree Acemaster. Although the Euro had been amplifying troughs too much for the last several months. It has been consistent this entire time, now almost a week with a hit.

  12. Thanks TK – GREAT explanation

    I listened to 4 and 7 again this morning and both (4 more than 7) seem to be minimizing any effects here. 4 said some minor coastal flooding some high wind gusts. Most of the people I have talked to see it heading into mid-Atlantic and figure we are literally out of the woods – which is the typical mindset with an average hurricane. But this seems to be anything but average. 7 did stress that the wind field would be huge but still made it sound like a typical nor’easter – pretty much what charlie and john are saying. It worries me that it is seemingly being minimized this early in the game.

    To me the best simple explanation was TK’s when he said winds may be higher than Irene’s. That puts it in perspective for the average person I think. I know it sure did for me.

    2. By tomorrow morning vicki, we should have a clear picture. People should be thrilled to possibly escape this. As of yesterday morning it was showing possibly mid Atlantic rout.

      1. That’s why I thought it was premature for stations to start downplay….too early for a clear picture. I’m thinking Sunday before we have a clear picture – if then.

        For what it’s worth – Pete seems to be on your boat or train 🙂 40-50 mph here with 2-4 inches of rain – an average nor’easter !!

        1. Vicki I honestly believe this is the case. Pete has been nailing thing’s. I would not go that high with the wind.

        2. I don’t think we even get that, this thing will be a tropical storm in 12 hrs and I believe it stays 300 or so miles sw of us, latest prediction is occasional showers with wind gust to 30-40mph 🙂

  13. This is what I have for landfall guesses – please let me know if I missed your guess

    Alisonarod Commack NY
    Merlin Long Island and into Bridgeport CT
    Keith-Hingham Jones Beach NY
    Tom Block Island RI
    Hadi Brick NJ
    Rainshine Monmouth, NJ
    Vicki Toms River, NJ
    JimmyJames Belmar, NJ
    Mark Monmouth Beach, NJ
    Old Salty Ocean Pines, MD
    Matt CT/long island/ny
    Coastal Shirley, NY
    Shotime Narragansett, RI
    Sue Somers Point, NJ
    Joshua Ocean City, MD
    Captain Islip, NY
    North Asbury Park, NJ
    TK Asbury Park, NJ
    Charlie Virginia Beach, VA
    Christia Rumson, NJ
    Tjammer Charlestown, RI

      1. When I reorganized I was afraid I may have deleted some – I know I had you – sorry – have added you back 🙁

  16. Thanks, TK!

    I do usually shut down my computer early unless something big is going on as I tend to go to bed early and get up early. I would have stayed on last night but my husband hasn’t been feeling well (nothing serious – just his crohn’s acting up). In any case, I did read all the posts from the last blog this morning – wow! Lots of info.

    Keith-Hingham – thank you for your post! I have bookmarked the link you posted. Right now we don’t have a working radio as it is in pieces all over the floor. My husband was trying to get out (transmit, for those who aren’t ham radio operators) but then it kind of blanked out. At first he thought it was the antennas – but then he figured it was the radio. No doubt he will have the radio back together soon. He loves putting things together and working with antennas – keeps him busy.

    Weather wise – what was I thinking about landfall at Portland, ME? Oh, well. I am holding out for Monmouth, NJ.

    Sue – I am glad your family is ok. That must have been hard waiting to hear but at least you know now they are ok.

    I will be in and out and reading all the posts and prob’ly posting.

  18. Not much time to post right now. Super busy.

    So much unknown as model can struggle as there is not a lot of past data about tropical storms that come so far north this late and take such a hard left turn.

    Right now I am thinking Long Beach Island, NJ which is about 50 miles south of Ashbury Park. If this verifies wind fields in New England would be negligible. Real threat would south coast flooding from surging waters. Rain impacts less than Irene. On average about 1.5-2.5″ BOS, PVD, ORH, BDL. Some localized flooding if a heavier band sets up over a particular area or in poor drainage areas.

  20. “Big Daddy” hat’s back on 🙂 What interested me most about his video was the mention of a sub 960 milibars.

        1. You’re welcome – it was fun and I learned something new 🙂 The majority sure did cluster in one area.

        1. But NYC and Long Island are still well within the cone. A landfall there would be worse for us than a direct hit on SE MA. Need to be prepared for that possibility even if it doesnt happen.

  23. From Skywarn moments ago:

    Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

    With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

    1.) With this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts.

    2.) The latest track guidance has shifted a bit. There are a camp of reliable computer models that shifted northward overnight. Several models have a track that is further north and over the Long Island/New York City/Northern New Jersey area. If this track verifies, this would mean a major impact to the region. Another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area. If it is north of Cape May New Jersey, major impacts are still likely but a track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would mean more moderate impacts.

    3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. The resulting potential of wind damage, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall will be the same regardless of its tropical status.

    4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more. It is possible a closer to Southern New England track could occur which would mean higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

    The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

    1. Coastal GREAT read – thank you very much for posting it. This is what I wish the tv mets were saying. It doesn’t get any simpler without any hype at all.

    2. Thanks Coastal. I hope the local mets are not writing off Sandy’s impact too soon. I’m afraid that people will let their guard down, not realizing the damage our area could sustain have if a more southern track does not verify.

    3. Thanks, Coastal. Interesting and makes a lot of sense. Like Vicki said, I wish the tv mets would say this – pure and simple info. w/o hype or relaxing too much re: the storm.

  24. Yesterday at this time everyone was going crazy and now it’s gonna hit Virginia beach, couldn’t have script it any better, it’s completely normal 🙂

  25. Gotta keep in mind the note in the black box on top of the NHC track map. The cone is just the location of the center of the storm, not the area of impact. Hazardous impacts are felt 200-300 miles from the storms center with the huge wind field this storm will have. Any track in the eastern half of that cone would have impacts in SNE.

    Very surprised to hear JMA say that a landfall in central NJ would have negligible wind fields in SNE, especially with the high to the north and tight pressure gradient. Completely opposite what TK said yesterday.

  27. The models are having trouble dealing with this set-up, and rightly so. Nothing like this has ever happened, at least in recorded history. Each model is initialized with historical data along with current conditions as part of its algorithem. In this case, there is no historical data available. Add to it this system will be undergoing identity changes as it approaches and u have a recipe for diverging models. Unfortunately, I dont think a location will be narrowed down until Sandy starts her treck back to the west.

  28. Here is this mornings discussion of the 0z model runs from WW. He is siding with the consistent Euro which depicts a Delmarva landfall. He is not buying the GFS which sideswipes LI and creates a worse case scenario for SNE. Says it is continuing to have convective feedback errors and is weakening the ridge over the Atlantic too much, allowing for more eastward movement in the track.

    http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=44&topicid=10621&Itemid=179

    1. Good advice, John. Not for anything you would not normally have. I have a habit of adding every fall for winter storms to supplies like water and batteries and making sure flashlights work. So I’ve done that. I do it again in the spring for summer storms. I backed up my computer yesterday.

    2. A very irresponsible comment on your part John. The storm is more than 3 days away from landfall. And that locations is not nailed down at this point.

          1. I agree that we have to wait and see what happens. The unfortunate part about blogs is that posts can be miscontrued as everyone inflects their own tone into a comment. I don’t think jabs are being thrown I think coastal was merely trying to reiterate that we can’t let our guard down yet. While your opinion may end up being 100% correct it is still mother nature we are dealing with so anything is possible.

  31. The GFS already has a strike against it for getting into the game late. It can redeem itself by accurately predicting where Sandy ends up. If the EURO ends up being right again, then I’ll have a hard time taking the GFS seriously this winter.

    1. Really weird how these models get on streaks, like a professional baseball player. For a while, one is on fire and seeing the pattern, and then the other is out to lunch. Then it flip flops. Looks like the Euro may finally be getting its mojo back….IF its right. A week of consistency is pretty impressive.

  32. For us here in CT as well as RI and Cape Cod, I think there will be a significant (but not devastating) impact. For Boston metro and points north, I tend to agree with John and Charlie that this is not going to be much worse than your typical noreaster. Waves of rain, 20 to 40mph winds with higher gusts.

    We’re still 3 days off though and its dangerous to get too complacent when you still have models like the GFS, UKMET, and CMC which put SNE in the high impact zone.

    1. Agree Mark. 40mph winds with higher gusts is nothing to take lightly either. Pretty much what we had from Irene, at least in my area, and lost power for days.

    2. I “think” the major updates are at:

      5AM
      11AM
      5PM
      11PM

      As conditions warrant, there are intermediate updates, like at 2PM
      for example.

    3. Sounds good, thanks Mark and Old Salty! Curious to see the 11am and 5pm updates once more info comes in

  34. There is no way to know right now where Sandy is going to make landfall, I think the smart thing is to make sure we are prepared and go from there

    1. 60-80 mph winds here in CT?? I better run for the hills if that happens. Not buying it though unless the GFS/NAM tracks verify verbatim. HM still thought as late as yesterday AM that this was going OTS and that a secondary noreaster was going to form in its wake and become the primary storm. I don’t think he has a good handle on what is really going to happen.

  37. Hmm…

    Very Interesting. Here is the 12Z NAM at 84 hours, depicting a landfall
    in SW CT to NYC area, which would NOT be good for our area:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    I don’t really trust how the NAM handles Tropical systems. However, it is
    yet another model depicting a more Northern Strike.

      1. cool loop. with each successive run since Tuesday night, the track went further and further west/southwest and the strength of the storm has been maintained further and further north. I think that trend stops today and landfall slides a bit back north into NJ before all is said and done.

  38. Another question. When the winds are 20-40 is that occasional gusts or fairly sustained? In my mind there is a difference but perhaps not.

    1. My thought was that if the Euro verified, Boston area would have winds 20-40 sustained with occasional higher gusts at the peak of the storm.

      2. I believe Boston had a gust to 63 during Irene but am not sure what its sustained wind was. According to wunderground, max sustained wind in Framingham during Irene was 33 mph with a gust to 50. However, my gut feeling is between Irene and the Halloween storm the trees that were at risk to fall have done so.

        Rain is yet another concern.

      2. Agreed. The strange thing with Irene was that we had more damage from that storm than any other storm in the past 5 years or so and I’m sure the Hingham conditions were close to the same as Boston.

  39. Way too early to assume anything, totally irresponsible of any TV Mets or anyone to not leave the option on the table as this point. The EURO is the only one that has a southern landfall, most of the other models have it up here. Let’s all be patient with each other 🙂

      1. Agreed Hadi – it’s simply tons of fun to watch all of this develop and to have everyone here to share in the fun/excitement/anticipation. And as a special bonus we get to interact with friends we haven’t seen in a bit.

  41. Can’t say I’m too excited about this storm. Rain and wind are not my cup of tea. I also find that with these storms one should expect the unexpected. Irene, for example, was not exactly a major wind-producer but devastated parts of Vermont and the interior with relentless rain. I’m not sure what to make of Sandy. The models do not seem to be in consensus at this stage. Landfall over Long Island or NYC would be bad enough for all of us, but a direct hit on the Rhode Island coastline could be catastrophic for some of the exposed communities.

    On a less important note, I am due to fly to a conference in Chicago on Tuesday morning. Any chance I can fly out of Logan? I do think that once the storm hits land it will move fairly quickly, but it will not have departed prior to Tuesday morning, that’s for sure.

  42. The 11AM NHC discussion states “THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS” yet in looking at the latest spaghetti chart below, nearly every other model solution is northeast of the NHC track. Their official forecast is at the far west end of solutions, most definitely not the model consensus. Don’t get it, unless they are just going with the Euro verbatim.

    http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18

  43. Harvey is saying the very best model that they have is sending it up the Maryland coast sparing Boston. He said scattered problems with this track. Harvey knows his stuff as many of you said so this week. As always with Harvey he tells it like it is.

  44. The only way this is not the run of the mill nor’easter is if the center comes NYC northward, at this min the nhc has it coming in about 100 miles south of NYC, with this track we will get waves of light to moderate rain with 20-30 mph gust to 40 mph 🙂

  45. Sounds like Harvey and most are putting all their eggs in the Euro basket. I’ll be interested to see if the 12z run holds it ground or begins to edge north.

          1. I finally found it online. Thanks for letting me know. I thought he was clear, precise and had great points.

  46. From Jim Cantore:

    “NEW GFS model bring 948mb low into Rhode Island then drives it back to NYC then southwest through Philly then back up to NYC. Unbelievable!”

    Still up in the air folks..

        1. I’m too young to remember to 😕

          I have to say it is so much fun to watch all of the changes

          Thank you to everyone posting the links and the information.

  48. Looking at the 850mb temps, Sandy still had a warm core, 952mb low pressure, with 80+ kt winds battering the outer Cape

  50. Barry’s first tweet since before Sandy became a named storm …

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    Most reliable model slams MD, DE, NJ, NYC… still a big impact here. Other models are crushing New England. NOT etched in stone yet! #wbz

  51. 5pm sandy update will be interesting bc if it starts trending north then more impact but waiting for 5pm 🙂

    1. Agreed. 5pm will be telling. 2pm will be telling too when the new run of the mighty EURO starts coming out. I think this run will be telling too. It will either blink and move north, or stay its ground and we go into another day with no more answers.

  52. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    I’m on conf. call with Gov’t. Meteorologists. Expect forecast track error of few hundred miles this far out in time.

  53. I don’t think anyone has posted this particular link yet – if so, sorry!

    ww.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

    I think this image is fascinating – with everything coming together. I usually can take some sort of guess on what might happen w/a tropical system by looking at a satellite loop, but frankly, in this instance, it’s really hard. So many different factors in place. I also think that whatever happens, major or minor, this will be a historic storm among other things due to so many and unusual factors taking place.

  54. GFS would be pure madness here in SNE.

    There is no way anyone should come to a final conclusion at this point, these types of storms can change and it doesn’t take much to move it.

    1. Is it just me or do I see a NW jog toward the end of the loop. Thanks for posting rainshine !! 🙂

      1. The centers of these storms tend to wobble so tough to tell. Would not be surprised though – the official forecast is for a turn NW today. Storm was still moving due north as of the 11 AM update.

        1. Exactly. I should have said that the eye seemed to jog NW a little while the storm itself still seemed to be moving due north.

    2. A curiosity question – does it seem as if everything coming together west to east and east to west over nova scotia to keep sandy south?

        1. I’m not sure about that, Vicki – I am thinking what you are talking about re: everything coming together west to east and vice versa is the big block that is keeping Sandy from going out to sea.

          1. Actually, it makes sense – if that is the block. I showed my husband the satellite loop and explained to him why the storm won’t go out to sea; due to the trough coming in from the west and the block up north. Of course, I could be wrong – anything could happen with this storm!

          2. I didnt describe well – I was looking due north but suspect I just don’t understand 🙂 Thanks for being patient and trying to figure what I meant !!

  58. Mandatory evacuations are now in effect for NJ forStone Harbor,Ocean City, Wildwood,Avalon,Sea Isle City.

    Also hearing from the Accuweather forum that Mayor Bloomberg MIGHT declare state of emergency @ 3 for NYC. They’re loading sand bags at some of the mta stations.

  59. Why do many of the main stream media outlets locally seem to be so quick to jump on the “bust – we’re not gettin’ anything” bandwagon? Is it that they don’t want to be accused of hyping in the case of a flop? It seems awfully irresponsible not to be prepared in any case. That’s just my opinion

    2. I think it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for them. They’ve been criticized so many times for over/under hyping, wasting tax payer money, etc.

      That being said, I totally agree.

    3. M.L. That’s what I was wondering this morning – I cannot tell you how many people I have spoken to today who have said it’s not going to be anything.

  62. NHC 2PM update on Sandy. Slight weakening, but still moving due north.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…N AT 7 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB

  67. I would not use a Hurricane Model at this point, the global models will have a better handle on the track

    2. Hadi,

      The problem is it is still a hurricane now, but will most likely be
      extra-tropical when it hits land, therefore it could be that neither hurricane
      models nor the global models will handle it exactly correctly????

      Hang on and buckle your seat belt!!!

      1. The NHC to date seem to be basing their forecasts off a blend of the euro and hurricane models. Most of the global models have been north and east.

      1. Way back at the start of all of the discussion it’s what Henry M (I believe) said would be a worst case scenario but he didnt think it was probable. I sure do hope that track changes.

  72. I will take a wild stab that the official NHC forecast track update at 5PM edges north to about, I don’t know, 50-75 miles? to, say, Atlantic City??

  73. Sounds about right… who knows what it will be tomorrow. I still think no way to know final landfall area until tomorrow!

  76. Hi all!

    Another quick post in the midst of a very busy day that has me running here, there, and everywhere else.

    I had broken up with the European Model a few weeks ago but I think we’re getting back together. 😉

    Delmarva.

    Minor to moderate impact here is my best guess right now. Update blog when I can!

  77. On satellite, the low level center of Sandy is exposed from the convection…..

    Question, do we think on satellite this will ever look like a tropical system again, with convection wrapping around the center or is this going to continue to look like a lopsided storm, with the southern half devoid of convection ?

  78. My work has an event planned next Tuesday at a local college and the college has already canceled the event. Way too premature if you ask me.

    1. Oh geez. This is what I was talking about before. The poor TV mets can’t win in situations like these. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

      1. I am not sure why they made the decision so early. They notified us that they have canceled all events for Monday and Tuesday. We were shocked.

          1. They are back up on facebook via their cell phones but still have no power. Still lots of clean up to do on the island. Thanks for checking Vicki!

  79. Just looking at the 12z EURO’s forecasted pressures…..

    954 mb in central NJ, 988 mb around Portsmouth, NH….that would be a change of 34 mb over what……..3 to 4 hundred miles. I’m going to guess thats a pretty good pressure gradient to sustain some impressive winds, coming in off of the frictionless ocean.

  80. Looking at the GEFS ensemble, it looks like the 70 Longitude line may be telling. The members whose track is central to southern NJ, the turn back to the coast starts at around 70 Longitude. The members who track a bit further north, towards NYC…the turn back to the coast starts a bit further east…at about 67 to 68 Longitude.

  81. Pete Bouchard at 4:00 said a couple of things that caught my attention moreso:

    1. The current track is frought with error

    2. We are going along with the current track for now because we are required to have the same voice.

    #2 in particular…Is it possible that Pete and other local mets personally do not quite agree with the NHC track? I just thought it was strange for him to make the comment or maybe I was reading to much into it?

      1. Pete also said that there is one model that takes Sandy to DC which was my guess that I gave to Vicki earlier.

      1. Thanks Shotime, interesting if the northward trend continues and fnally verifies. Also good to see the WBZ trolls are still alive and kicking, lol. 😉

        2. I hadn’t checked the BZ board in a long time…uggh…I can’t believe the crud those people post.

    3. That is super interesting. TK, is there some expectation among local mets and national weather agencies to “agree” in cases like these where public safety is a concern?

      2. It wouldnt also surprise me if the movement is stationary or less than 5 mph. It looks like the low level center has barely moved the last hour or two.

    2. what’s with the change in opinion Charlie? This morning you were saying it was going to strike VA Beach! 🙂

  84. It will be interesting to see what the latest track shows at 5pm. I know I am going to get my preparations done tomorrow and SUnday. Putting my deck furniture in, Getting the flashlights out, and making sure my battery powered operated radio is working.

    1. Yup….plenty of ice for the freezer. At least the downstairs is chilly already and with the ice, I would hope we dont lose all the food if power is out for some time.

      1. I was just making my list. Patrick gave really logocal tips when he spoke. I took out some frozen meat to thaw for a stew that we can heat on grill and made room for freezer ice. I’m feeling a need for a no power night here no matter what happens. Shhhhhh don’t tell my family yet

  85. Hey everyone. Been a lurker since the BZ days. Love this stuff. Sounds like everyone is going north. Matt Noyes says closer to NYC now. Keep up the good work everyone!

  87. Following up on Tom’s comment above, I looked at the euro model’s wind output and it was showing a general zone of 25-35 mph winds across CT, RI and eastern MA. Areas within a few miles of the eastern MA coastline, Cape Cod, and the south coast of RI and CT were in the 35-50 mph range. These are sustained winds, not gusts, I believe. The GFS, with the closer track, had winds up to 60 mph on the immediate eastern MA coastline.

  88. Interesting comments by @ToddWBZ this afternoon for those on Twitter – not ruling out anything at this point.

  89. Don’t be fooled because if everything holds where this makes landfall and several hundred miles to the northeast are going to take a wallop from whatever this thing will be.

  90. I’m still thinking a light to moderate nor’easter, still thinking minor impact, possible moderate in some localized areas

  91. Latest from NWS: (pretty stromgly worded!)

    BUT WITH FOCUS UPON THE 26/12Z MODEL SOLNS…THIS COULD BE A VERY
    CATASTROPHIC AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    AND NEIGHBORING LOCALITIES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
    DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES /LIKELY FOR DAYS/ WOULD BE
    ANTICIPATED. WITH SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST SWELL AND THE NEAR-PASSAGE
    OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM…WE WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
    RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. SUBSTANTIALLY SEVERE
    BEACH EROSION ALONG ALL BEACHES WOULD BE A LIKELY OUTCOME. A GREATER
    PROPENSITY FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD LEAD TO MORE INTERIOR FLOODING.

    And here is the 18Z NAM at 84 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Btw,

      I believe the above was based on the more Northerly track.

      Officially, I am now WORRIED! wasn’t before this point. With the
      Northward trends now……..

  93. The latest from Todd on WBZ is that both the northern and southern tracks are still on the table at this point.

  94. From Matt Noyes:

    MattNoyesNECN Indications to me are that worst winds of entire East Coast event may occur in Southern NewEng, including Boston area

    2. Yes……for all the good that instant communication of the internet offers…….it also allows for ninety nine interpretations to be communicated, at the same time, as well.

  97. Basically, no one knows yet. They all seem to be kind of pushing for the worst scenerio – now whether that’s just to cover themselves or it’s very possible . I will say – it is a big, big storm.

  98. The Weather Channel weatherscan now on board with possible tropical storm on Tues. w/heavy rain and wind on their 5 day forecast.

  99. If any northern track were to eventually verify, we in SNE could very well be into “1938” territory here. There would be no landmass to break Sandy down before she comes onshore. And I thought Irene last year was scary enough… 🙁

  100. The NHC’s 5 pm track never gets this entity to 70 longitude….it gets it to maybe 72 longitude, followed by a sharp turn to the west. By the way, Boston’s longitude is 71.06 degrees.

    3. Vicki….. I was spending some time looking back at Irene, and the NHC’s track was remarkably accurate. It was the intensity forecasts of all the models that struggled with Irene.

      Philip…maybe so…I think they are doing a great job offering scenarios, such as southern track vs northern track and the impacts that come with both.

      The one thing that has caught my eye is how expansive to the north and east the tropical storm force winds are expected to be.

      1. Tom…I agree and I can understand the local mets mentioning the worst case scenario considering several models do bring Sandy up here. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some of those northern tracks are from fairly reliable models. My bet is they might not be all “outliers”.

      3. I was hoping to actually find old EURO and GFS runs for a few days prior to Irene and couldnt come up with them. I was looking to see how each did closer to the event, because I cant remember which did better.

  101. Wow. After six yrs of no running, its so hard. I’ve been training for a 5k this Sunday. Was a nice run tonight, first time in the dark.

  103. Recon plane in Sandy……..

    Max flight wind found so far, 58 knots……however, pressure remaining low at 972 mb.

    Thinking next advisory will show this entity as a tropical storm…..

    Already have a storm where the winds far away from its center are almost as strong as near the center.

  104. I’m beginning to think that it’s possible for it to come ashore in New Jersey but take a sharp northward turn coming just west of NYC and continuing right between binghamington and Albany and then turning nne over Maine

  105. I think its pretty clear the center will be west of us…..

    I wonder, since there aren’t a ton of surface obs in the ocean east of Sandy, if watching Bermuda’s surface obs might tell us anything in the next day or so. They seem a fair distance east from the track…………..

  106. I just watched ch 7 and 4 5:00 reports. Is everyone sitting? If not please do. Todd did a far far better job covering the scenarios than Pete did. Pete only went with the southern track. Todd covered both – no hype – just honest discussion.

    I’m going to go drown my sorrows now 🙁

  107. Based on TK’s facebook post I am convinced in a more southern landfall. He seems pretty confident and who am I to argue??

      1. It’s weather…I don’t think we are ever 100%. But I do know that you are a million times more knowledgeable than most in this field so I have no choice but to trust you. 🙂

        1. Thank you Sue. Just remember that despite what people try to say, meteorology is very inexact, and we have not achieved anything close to perfection, nor will we. And any forecast, short range, medium range, or long range, has so many chances to go awry, given all the variables in this atmosphere, and their interactions. I’m still amazed we can forecast the development of cumulus clouds 1 day in advance. 😉

  109. I see that parts of MA has been put back in Sandy’s cone on the NHC page. Wasn’t MA entirely out of the cone earlier today?

  111. Alotta people have already written this storm off, sure there give probabilities but lets be real, we have a light to moderate nor’easter on its way, most of the winds will be along the coast were 30-50 mph winds r possible, anyone inland can expect 20-30 mph gust to 40 mph, I think for the amount of time we put into this storm alot of us will end up disappointed, I’m not sure what the storm will look like this time tommorrow, it really doesn’t look like a hurricane, it looks like a small blob of yellow and orange and that seems to be fizzling out

    1. Normally I’d agree here, but this set-up begs that one leave the possibility of something much more significant on the table. Harvey would not have been talking the way he was if he was not concerned. I know the man enough to know his methods. We’ve talked about weather forecasting. He’s the last guy to hype up a storm for the fun of being the messenger. This guy is about as innocent as they come when it comes to the hype-casters.

      BTW, I was not accusing you, or anyone, of calling Harvey or anyone a hype master. Just using your comment as a launch pad to respond and cover a little more.

      Always look forward to your posts Charlie 🙂

        2. Like I said all week Harvey is the best met on today in the field. He does circles around the other mets.

    2. Charlie, I thought I heard that this would happen during the change phase and then it would re-strengthen again???

  112. TK, at what point will we have solid idea of the eventual track? At the point it take the left curve, or whether or not is goes further west versus a more eastern track coming up the coast?

    2. Agreeing with John for the most part, but the situation is so anomalous that we just have to watch right to the end for surprises.

  114. The max flight winds the recon plane is finding continue to decrease…..however, they have an extrapolated pressure which is down to 966 mb. Wouldnt be surprised if the max sustained winds were around 65 mph at 8 pm.

      1. I was surprised this was still a hurricane as well. No one should let their guard down even when it does get
        downgraded to a tropical storm. This storm is large and a lot of people are going to feel the effects from it.

        1. Here it is:

          Not to sound like a back and forth person, but since this is such a high stakes forecast, I am starting to worry a little more for southern New England based on late info. I am not going to go into detail yet but a little later tonight a blog update will come. Out for the day tomorrow, ironically at a weather conference (having nothing to do with this storm though I’m sure it will start to dominate the day). I will be checking in here via mobile.

  117. Todd at BZ posted an update leaving all options on the table.

    Vickie he said he’s starting to get more worried for SNE.

    1. Hadi I never mind. When someone starts calling me Victoria then I worry. As a kid I only heard it when I’d done something wrong ;). And thank you.

        1. Hahaha. I did see that. You had a whole lot on your mind. I might have called myself Sandy if I’d had family in harms way 🙂

  119. You got the EURO south of NYC and the GFS cutting across Long Island. The spread is not as big as it once was.
    I think my prediction of landfall in Belmar, NJ might be a little off. I am interested to see the 11pm updated track.

  120. The latest GEFS ensemble really mirror the NHC track. Most of the members do not get the storm to 70 degrees longitude and then have a similar sharp turn to the west-northwest.

    1. I’ll bet there will be nowcasting of the winds, especially in the eastern third of New England.

      On the one hand, the storm will be moving away from us……on the other hand, the storm will be deepening and the wind field will be expanding.

  122. An expanding wind field which is not something you want to see since impacts will be felt over a large area. I said this last night it could be the second straight year a few day’s before Halloween where a lot of people are in the dark.

      1. This is like being on the outside looking in. I can’t get the link. It must be flash and iPads don’t do flash. I wasn’t worried till Charlie said oh boy

  125. The anticipation in waiting for the 00z models is killing me right now…especially since I want to go to sleep soon!

  126. Before I jump into the moderate to major nor’easter with 2-4 inches of rain and wind gust to 60 mph possubly 70 mph on south faceing beaces I want to see a few more things, I’m not in this wagon yet but it’s up to 40-50% probability, lets see what happens over the next 12 hrs, I think we have a consensus on track and its going to come on shore about 50-75 miles south of NYC 🙂

  127. I’m going to be at the Southern New England Weather Conference all day tomorrow. I cannot wait to chat about this with my fellow met’s.

  128. 0z NAM looks a little stronger and farther west at hour 45 than previous runs. Making the left hook earlier.

  132. Wow, what a big hit by the NAM. 960mb low making landfall just south of NYC. Impressive wind field all the way up to southern Quebec!

    1. Started out farther NW and making the turn earlier, but the left hook was not nearly as pronounced as some of the other model runs. That’s a pretty scary run for NYC and SNE if it verified.

  133. Back to hurricane.com with the Sandy track.

    http://hurricanetrack.com/trackingmap/atlwide.html

    The difference between the 72 hr and 96 hr “point” would seem to be the most critical. I continue to wonder whether Sandy will “swing” a little further east and north before turning west. I am not looking or wanting an SNE hit– I’ll take the OTS solution anyday, but I am unconvinced that we are out of the woods (or is that woodshill) at this point. Ugh!

    Todd (BZ) promising an update at 11:00 pm.

  137. With the latest track from the NHC it looks like it want to takes Sandy in the Delmarva which is a surprise to me since some of the data has trended a little further north.

  139. I believe its around that time or shortly there after. I am not waiting up for it but I look forward to reading everyone’s thoughts on it and blogging once again with all of you tomorrow!
    Have a good rest of the night!

  140. Here is the storm . Its a storm it will dump any where from 2 -10 inches of rain with winds any where from 20-75. storm surges east and south coast. south coasts getting hit more. 4-10 foot storm surge. i think i included everything thats the range of two possibilities.
    One ceneraio it travesl over southern Jersey gives most areas winds of 25-50 mph . highest south of the pike and closer to the coast. with 4-6 inches of rain south of the pike and 2-4 inches north of the pike up into southern nh and vt. storm surge 1-3 feet north shore. 3-6 national sea shore and 5-8 south shore and islands.

    Senario 2( worst case cenerio) makes land fall some where from north jersey to nyc to long island and ct.
    winds of 45-60-65mph with 50-75 south of the pike.
    rain fall. a wide spread 4-8 inches with 6-10 south of the pike.
    storm surge: 6-10foot storm surge south shore, islands national sea shore
    3-6 north shore
    There will be alot of now casting involved and when it is off of north caralin’s/virgina coast will likly be when we can start getting more specific. 😉

  141. 0Z GFS very similar to the NAM with a landfall just south of NYC at 960 mb. Very impressive windfield through all of New England. Storm really holds it strength as it moves inland towards northern PA as well.

    NYC in big trouble if either GFS or NAM verify with potential for 80-90 mph wind gusts.

  142. 0z GFS rain totals at least are not that impressive for New England, which may minimize the threat for inland flooding. West Virginia gets hammered with a major snowstorm.

  144. Unbelieveable! Oz UKMET, 0Z CMC, 0Z NAM, and 0Z GFS all show landfall in nearly the identical spot, just south of NYC. The sharp left hook on the model runs seems to be becoming less pronounced for whatever reason. Will be very interested to see the Euro in the AM. I would have to think the NHC brings the official track north tomorrow. Delmarva landfall seems too far south.

  146. Sandy is currently at 76.7 degrees longitude….

    An ocean buoy, at 69.5 degrees longitude, is reporting sustained winds at 31 knots, gusting to 37 knots. The average wave height is 16 ft.

    Data courtesy of NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center.

    1. The closest buoy to the storm is reporting……

      NNW winds at 49 knots, gusting to 64 knots

      Average wave height of 30.5 ft.

  147. Yaaaaaawn.

    We have a 9 week ok puppy who has us up at 2am an 5am every morning.

    Maybe Sandy will scare her into sleeping longer….

    Yawwwwwwwwwwwwn.

        1. Give it another month or two! Our older golden started sleeping until 7 or 8….until his brat of a little sister showed up! 🙂

  148. Latest Sandy plane recon :

    Interesting, in the notes, they state that the center is embedded in convection. It does look on satellite, unlike last evening, that the thunderstorms/convection is better concentrated around the center.

    Extrapolated pressure is 967 mb.

  149. Sandy now a tropical storm. Winds at 70 mph and storm moving at 10mphMost likely to become a Cat 1 again late Sunday.

    Joe Joyce comments at 5:30 am today (Sat):

    1) Because of size, timing, wind field, etc., the storm could could have a “Cat 2 or 3 effect.” I believe he means in terms of potential damage.

    2) As Sandy moves north energy (from the west and warm waters) will move into base of trough so storm will be intensifying as it moves towards land.

    3) Will make landfall in NJ, but still too early to make a definite call. A little unclear (to me) as to where the storm will bomb out.

    4) For Boston area: gusts at 40-60 mph; for SE MA/Cape/RI gusts will be 50-80mph. Area should get 1-3″ of rain.

    5) Because of timing with normal high tides, expect a 20-30 foot storm surge with coastal flooding.

    6) Power outages likely: Need flashlights, batteries, car charger for cell phone, fill big baggie with water and put in freezer to keep freezer food cold, etc, etc

    The usual caveats — if storm track moves 50-100 miles, then we could be in for blah, blah, blah.

    1. On #4, it was noticeable that he kept Todd’s 2 tracks, but, as you point out, increased the wind predictions in both tracks.

      On TWC, Carl Parker showed the GFS’ wind projections at 5,000 ft and it projects the winds to be 100 mph, 5,000 ft above us……so, if that verified, any heavier shower would have the potential of transfering some of that wind towards the surface.

      1. That is pretty scary. The damage that could be done with that. Anyone know what the overnight Euro showed?

        2. Looking at the 0Z EURO now and it looks like it went back to the Delaware Bay idea, if not slightly south of there

  150. 6Z GFS into north central NJ…Euro like a couple have said, seems to be the southern outlier as far as global models

  151. Good Morning everyone!
    I thinking for landfall were looking at northern NJ just south of NYC. With the storm so large its going to have far reaching impacts no matter where the center comes ashore.

    1. Morning JJ. I’m thinking the same thing as far as eventual landfall, even though I had Ocean City, MD. Feeling nervous this morning though, with all the media outlets having their own takes on this, makes me think with 48 hours till effects are felt, no one really has a handle on where this will end up. But I agree with u, wherever she ends up landing, we will feel the effects, just how severe is still the question

  152. I did find a generator last night and have to go to Quincy to get it this morning. Call me crazy, but I would rather limit damage if sump pump loses power. I know that the sump pump may not even be needed, but I don’t want to make that gamble with the electric, furnace and water heater down there. We will see if I am making a return if I didn’t open it next week :).

      1. It has been around the 970 mark the last 24 hours.

        The vortex data message, which is on the NHC website, under Aircraft Recon (left side of page, about 1/3 to 1/2 way down), hopefully will have more info the next couple of hours if the flight is dropping multiple sondes.

  154. I got the impression from Pete B’s blog last night that this will be a run of the mill nor’easter as far as SNE is concerned. Is that inaccurate?

  155. It depends on the track. As I said yesterday the EURO track is bad for us while the GFS track is really bad. To me that is the best way to look at. No solution right now is good since this storm is not going to go out to sea due to the blocking high up in Greenland which is forcing it to make that left hand hook back to the U.S.

  156. I’m very concerned about storm surge, not necessarily around here, though the high tide will be high, etc……… There’s probably very little historical precedence for observing a storm surge into the NYC area and Long Island when the track of an intense storm, with a huge, long duration wind field….is being driven into the coastline from a track thats perpendicular to the coastline.

  157. Tom you were talking about pressure earlier and some of these models have the pressure in the 950s which is incredible. The Superstorm of 93 was in the low 960s and this storm whether is a tropical or hybrid could have a lower pressure than that.

    1. It is amazing……and its that pressure potential thats frightening, because right under it, the ocean will be able to be a bit higher. As I understand it, in the open ocean, that may only amount to 1 foot, maybe 2…….but, as that comes to the shoreline and encounters shallower water depth, thats a lot of water moving towards a smaller amount of space, which means the only thing the water can do is rise.

      1. Tom or JJ do you know the pressure of the perfect storm. The ocean went right over Humarock then – well the river came up from behind too. I’m assuming the rest of our coast would have been as badly damaged

        1. Vicki….I found an article that said 972 mb. I have no idea if that is accurate. Hopefully TK would know……..

    1. No, I havent Hadi….the recon plane report on the NHC website shows 961 mb and according to the latest advisory, they found a pressure of 960 mb.

      Is he still thinking Sandy goes east and that another low develops off of the NJ coastline ?

      2. Ha! No, he changed his mind on that scenerio yesterday when he decided to put his “Big Daddy” hat back on 🙂 Such a character, quite entertaining 🙂

  159. 960 mb on the advisory, wow.

    And this entity hasnt yet really interacted with the incoming disturbance and the sharpening jet stream configuration.

  160. anyone seeing joe joyce on Twitter?

    Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ
    This may be a very catastrophic and destructive storm for all of southern New England and neighboring localities. (NWS Boston discusn) #wbz

    Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ
    WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO HURRICANE FORCE. DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES /LIKELY FOR DAYS/ WOULD BE ANTICIPATED. (NWS) #wbz

    Clearly not trusting the almighty EURO.

  161. The sun is out in a hazy sky – still some fog around. Earlier the sky had a pinkish tint to it and it still looks kind of weird. ‘Though the storm is still far away, it might be affecting the light, I don’t know.

    I agree w/JJ – wherever the storm lands, we are still going to get something. I am looking forward to what TK has to say when he gets back from the Weather Conference.

  163. Wow….wow…..wow….

    New recon sonde….

    Pressure down to 957 mb…….plane finding higher flight level winds again……latest max flight level wind …..91 knots.

    1. I will go out on a limb and say that by day’s end…..the NHC will have higher sustained wind forecasts in their track….which I think now has restrengthening to 75 or 80 mph.

    2. The models…and we all know how they deepen this storm further north….they dont have this low a pressure in its current position…

    1. Old Salty, at this stage, do u think hurricane models should be heavily weighted toward the eventual outcome or do u think the global models should be more weighted?

  165. Well Hurricane Vicki (has there ever been one) has the freezer cleaned and bags of ice throughout and much of the yard junk done. If nothing else, we will be way ahead of fall cleanup this year 🙂

      1. It may go through several fluctuations in pressure between now and then on its voyage, but def something the models cant pick up on

  167. I realize as I sit at the conference that I have not yet said welcome back Old Salty!!! Great to have you back!

  168. My mom lives in a modular home park and the homes were only built to withstand tropical storm force winds. In the event of a hurricane, even minimal, there would be a mandatory evacuation of the park. I called the local police today and they said there will be no evacuation orders. With the developments of Sandy late yesterday and today, im concerned they are not taking this seriously. Im not taking any chances and moving my mom into my house later today. Call me crazy, and trust me, my mom living with me for a couple days will drive me crazy, but im not taking any chances.

    1. You Mom’s lucky she has such a wonderful son. Better to be safe than sorry, especially where our elders are concerned!

      1. Thanks shotime! She doesnt want to evac but I think she could see how concerned it was. The problem with the continued forecast uncertainty in this case is a landfall more south and all they get is some trop storm force gusts. A landfall north, as in northern NJ near NYC, and we do get those hurricane force gusts. The fact they are going with the south track is why i think theres been no evac

    2. Your mom is indeed very, very lucky. We did this during Irene and Earl when we were vacationing at the Humarock and it is a really difficult decision. In both cases, we ended up heading home and then returning. In the long run, I always feel it is better to ere on the side of caution. I am surprised they are definitive about no evac since they should know the outcome is not close to being written in stone. A bit irresponsible IMHO.

  169. NHC 11 am update:
    ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS…THE LONGER TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INTIAL MOTION OF 030/8 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
    AFTER THAT TIME…THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A
    WESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE…SUCH AS THE GFS… SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST…MEANING THAT SANDY WOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST…RATHER THAN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. HAVING SAID THAT…IT IS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER…BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

  170. I’m conflicted here on the south shore. Not sure wether or not to have my wife and children stay at her parents has in Framingham or stay at home. I have oak and pine trees that are 20 feet from my house. They are on a hill so the tree trunks are at the ceiling level of my living room/kitchen area. If limbs come down it could be ugly. Framingham is a bit removed from the storm but the house is much safer. Decisions decisions.

    1. With the potential for 60-70 mph wind gusts on the south coast (regardless of landfall location), I’d be sleeping in Framingham Mon night if it were me. Sounds like those trees are in a precarious location!

    2. I’d pick Framingham too but will you be with them? Do you have an option of sleeping on the other side of the house? We have two huge maples that are on either side of our house. Daughter and family will sleep in the livingroom in the middle since one of the trees hangs over their room and my grandsons.

      1. Coastal I’ve been meaning to ask if the windows are in your porch room? We put ours in last weekend but they have never been in for high winds. I believe we secure them the same as you do – with two 1×1 inch strips of wood holding them in. I’m a bit worried they might not withstand a heavy wind. One side faces due south with little protection if any from wind.

  171. 12z NAM looks very similar to 0z run with landfall in central NJ, just south of NYC.

    NHC 11AM track has shifted back south and they are showing landfall in Delaware again. All of New England is out of the cone and even NYC is now just on the far northern fringe.

  172. Well I’m in a tough position today. My son absolutely loves Halloween, my outside is all decorated. Going by the latest information I have no choice but too take it all down. This upsets us.I have a race tomorrow so only have today. I cant watch the stuff during the storm because I will probably be stuck at work for a couple of days working the storm. I will be so pissed if this duds out. I am still on the fence. Oh well.

    1. John we just took down some of the decorations too. Some are still up but we have the luxury of waiting since my SIL does not work Monday. Tough call for you.

  173. All Home Depots in our area are out of D batteries. The hardware store down the street from us got a huge shipment of batteries yesterday and all were gone by 5:00 last night. Glad I got mine the other day.

  175. The storm’s pressure is 959 mb. The outflow to its west and north is unbelievable……

    The interaction with the disturbance and jet stream configuration hasnt entered the picture yet……. I wonder what this thing is going to bottom out at in 48 hrs ?

  176. The next 12 hours r critical in how close it comes to us, the further east and faster forward speed will tend to be closer to right side of cone, the next 12 hrs will be telling 🙂

    1. I sure hope you are right. I still have the sense it’ll be well into tomorrow before we know and what makes me nervous is a lot of people I know are writing it off. I just had a friend in Southbridge email and say they aren’t really doing anything because they feel they are too far away. Thoughts on that area since my daughter is also in Uxbridge. They have a generator and are getting the yard stuff put away though.

    2. The 956 mb low is a 20 mb drop versus its initialized pressure of 976 mb…..

      If we take 20 mb off the actual current pressure of 959 mb……….

  178. well, since it’s nor’easter season again, I’m coming out of summer hibernation.
    Just got the generator fixed this morning…just in case.
    Hope you all enjoyed the summer.

    At this point I’m most fascinated by the projected low pressure.

    2. Welcome back. Not too late if you want to guess a landfall city/state. Does t appear we are a whole lot closer to knowing than we were yesterday. 🙂

  179. Matt Noyes is live on line right now…interesting stuff. Saying some of the highest winds could be across eastern MA, RI and the south coast.

  181. Howdy folks! Been reading along (and talking football with Hadi on FB, lol) and I’m going to remain with my thinking from a few days ago and call for a LI landfall, and a big problem for SNE. The models can’t figure it out, and that makes sense as the models are all looking at past weather systems to project current conditions, and this storm is unlike anything we have seen before. My word of the day is ‘Bombogenesis’ and I fear that we might be hearing it more in the next few days.

    Be safe people.

  182. Just spoke with a friend of mine who lives near Dover, DE. Said the local media down there is telling people direct hit south of Dover. Obviously they’re going more with NHC. I think our mets up here continue to disagree with NHC trackwise from what I’ve been hearing in their Twitter posts and blogs

  183. What is the timing? I saw Matt N said predawn mon to predawn tues. I was thinking later mon. Daughter has pregnancy bloodwork mon am but might want to think about postponing.

  184. I don’t think anyone has posted this link yet, so here goes –

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

    Very beautiful but scary storm. That block to the north – no chance it could carry Sandy more east? Not necessarily out to sea, just more east, which would be worse for us as it would make landfall further north?? Sorry if it’s a silly question.

  185. I just had lunch with Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel. 🙂

    BTW…Still going with a NJ landfall…BUT keep in mind, we will no longer be dealing with a warm core tropical but a storm in rapid transition to post-tropical. Not the same exact thing. This does impact areas to the north.

    1. TK, that’s great that you had lunch with Dr. Forbes! 🙂

      When you get a chance, any idea how areas (specifically,maybe our area) might be affected?

      Thanks!

        1. Actually, re-reading my post, kind of a silly question. We are going to get affected – should have been more clear – how intense will the weather be?

    2. Does it impact us more or less? And does Dr. Forbes believe a NJ landfall or is he sticking with the NHC?

      1. TK u said the other nite if nj or north we’d have winds higher than Irene. Do you think that still stands? And what an exciting lunch!!!!!

  186. Watching for surprises with this storm system because we know these tropical systems have minds of their own. A good example was Charley back in 2004 when all the forecasts had it going into the Tampa area and it hooked right a lot sooner and went into Punta Gorda.

  187. Thanks for the offer on guessing Vicki but if the polls are closed on the landfall, I’ll just sit back and see who the winning horse will be. I guess I would say whoever chose somewhere on Long Island is probably where I would have ended up guessing anyway.

  188. My thinking has not changed and I’m not in the major storm wagon, it will be a major storm but just not hear, I’m fairly confident in a light to moderate nor’easter for the majority of us, around an inch to an inch in a half of rain will fall and Mon winds will become gusty but nothing anybody hasn’t seen in the past few years, I think it will be the same as Irene was for inland locations 30-40mph will be common in eastern sections of mass, have a good day everyone 😉

  191. I get so excited with all of this I sometimes don’t think when I ask questions and they might come out kind of silly! 🙂

    2. INLAND: sustained 25-35 gusts 40-60 except 50-70 highest elevations

      COAST: sustained 35-45 gusts 55-65

      Isolated 75 gusts not out of question

      1. pretty much identical to Irene – hopefully Irene and Halloween storms got rid of the trees that were weak and power outages won’t be as bad……………….except in my neighborhood 🙂

  199. That’s a little bit further north than I predicted a few days ago going with Belmar as the landfall point. Landfall is something not to focus on since this storm is so large its impacts are going to extend far away from where the center comes ashore.

      1. The other thing it does not matter what this will be labeled. This is a storm that is going to pack a big time punch.

  200. I’m confident of the 12z EURO although a ways to go. I still feel the storm will be on the eastern side of the projected cone making landfall somewhere over long island. The longer the storm continues its northeasterly trajectory, the more likely the storm’s landfall ends up further north, especially if the storm speeds up. Remember, a direct landfall over north NJ or NYC for that matter means huge impacts over SNE since the highest winds are over the northern and eastern side of the storm and the wind field continues to expand.

  201. TJ, responding to your question above, some links for the ECMWF:

    Weather Underground Models Page – this is by far the best and has the most detail but takes longer to finish the model run (usually aboout an hour) after the model is actually done running.
    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

    Other links:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012102712&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=000

    1. that was what I was trying to describe yesterday to you but had no idea how to describe it 🙂 I think between work and popping in here to read updates every few minutes I’m spuck-eyed……what does that mean?

      1. It means we love the weather! 🙂

        From what I’m seeing on tv and everywhere else, it doesn’t look like that block is going to affect Sandy. General agreement is she will make a sharp turn west at some point, no one exactly sure yet. And no matter where she lands, most places will be getting lots of wind and rain.

  206. Sustained winds of 35-45 mph–higher south and east

    Gusts could approach 60-70 mph–isolate hurricane force

    Stay safe!

  207. Kevin makes me laugh some times w/his tweets –

    “@klemanowicz: Latest Euro brings it farther north. That would be bad. This is much different than what that model has done. So, talk to me euro lovers”

  208. The key word sustained at 35-45 mph with higher gusts. That is a recipe for power outages. I got my flashlights and battery powered radio already.

  209. No matter what happens this will be a dangerous storm. I am hoping we can avoid loss of life. I also hope that the loss of property is as minimal as it can be given the circumstances.

    One thing I hope this storm should point to – like others of its kind in the past – is the need for a major modernization project affecting our power lines. There’s no excuse for a modern country like the US to have extensive power outages with virtually every major storm. Yet, we do, and it’s mainly because many of our power lines are above ground when they ought to be underground. I realize that it’s folly to speak about government investment at a time of huge deficits, but the next time we see ourselves in a better budgetary position we should move to get rid of above ground power lines. It’s a lot of money in the short term, but a very good investment over the long haul.

      1. I’ve always said that but we all know that will never happen here, that’s edgy,, not gonna happen here, anyways back to the weather

            1. not to get off the point and I won’t stay off point but was hoping you saw the mess with schools in TX – was a given with the plan Rick Perry put in place

    4. It’ll only happen Joshua once the insurance companies really start screaming because they can’t raise rates. Until then, they’ll take the losses and increase rates in increments.

  210. Joshua,

    In Europe power lines are all underground. Unfortunately to me the reason they are not here has to do with unions. They make enormous amounts of money when we lose power. For years the unions have protested to the Gvt about putting the lines underground.

    1. Husband said the same about Europe but many communities here to have them underground. I know Belmont Hill does and Wellesley. So my many may be a few but some do 🙂 Oddly, my co-worker in Wellesley lost power with both storms last year and as I said his are underground.

  211. With sandy looking like its going on the left side of cone southern New England looks like they dodged a bullet, the storm is moving more northerly, it’s only gonna pass around 150-200 miles east of cape hatteras and come right into Delmarva leaving us on the far northeast quadrant, if it makes landfall 300 miles south of here it won’t be that bad here 🙂

  212. What model are you looking at it taking it in that position. The 12z EURO takes it into Central NJ as well as the 12z GFS.

  213. From Barry Burbank: @BarryWBZ: Expect winds of 40-65 mph north of the MA Pike into northern New Eng. Unfortunately, power outages are a given. Be prepared. #wbz

    1. And Harvey: @HarveyWCVB: Models converging on a New Jersey landfall, a little south of NYC…bad news for Long Island & New England South Coast

  217. I don’t get it. One met saying bad south coast, another saying bad north shore. Last I heard down here pembroke, Hanover and Marshfield Were Gina take a hit. Can sombody explain. Thing is you have too many mets on with different information.

  219. The 18z NAM is coming in slightly more north than the 12z, land fall just south of NYC, northern NJ

  220. TWC and NHC make no sense. They just showed the cone, which goes from just south of NYC all the way down to Virginia Beach. But then, they put up the model spaghetti diagram with a few models, and all but 2 concentrate on central NJ. So you would naturally think the middle of the cone would be central NJ right? Nope, middle of cone = Ocean City, MD?? So strange. Anyways, Jim Cantore reporting from lower Manhattan and said how surprised he was with the NHC for not posting at the very least hurricane watches all the way up the coast to the Cape. The guy he was talking to agreed and said it was a bad idea. Like Old Salty said yesterday, someone is gonna have some red faces when all is said and done.

  221. If there wasnt a hurricane to track we would have been talking about how unseasonably WARM is was today. What a beauty of a day, even a bit humid too.

      1. The surge would be so bad. It’s going to be bad no matter what for someone. Imagine how much water is going to pile up in Long Island Sound with the current solution..

  223. Charlie what makes you say that? If you are telling friends and people that they might feel like its no big deal. It very well could be a major storm for many of us.

  224. I was thinking about earl in August 2010. Up until darn near the last minute it was a hit on at least Nantucket. It missed. And I don’t remember any of the nuances this system has. Is it even possible to predict until it hits or just a bit before?

  225. We drove down the pike to CT today and saw many electric trucks heading east. I couldn’t see where they were from. I like that we have our own electric company in our town. Back on-line time usually much quicker.

    1. I agree North. When I lived in North Attleboro during hurricane Bob, a huge tree fell at the end of our street and we had power back within an hour.

      1. Belmont has its own too and we were restored quickly but the rates were high. We had oil heat but an electric hot water heater and in the late 1960s it was in the vicinity of 180/month

      2. They thought they put us back on within 6 hours during Irene, but they left four of us on the dark because of a second transformer they missed.

  226. Here is a recent NWS statement:

    LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL HELP EXPAND THE GRADIENT
    WIND FIELD. IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE TWO WIND MAXES…ONE
    ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE EAST COAST OF MA WITH
    80-90 KT AT 925 MB! 12Z GEFS HAS +6 STD WIND ANOMALY AT 925 MB NEAR
    BID 18Z MON! THIS WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND
    GUSTS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS DO NOT FOCUS ON WHERE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL! DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE
    NORTH OF SANDY.

  227. The Taunton PM discussion is a great read and explains why the winds are likely to be strong here, even though the point of interaction with the coastline is NJ…….pressures of 936 to 949 mb …….wow……check back in later.

    1. That pressure is crazy–and with a 1032 mb high to the north. Wind is going to scream.

      Interesting in the NWS read how they mention increased qpf from upslope. Don’t read that too often.

      How about if this blocking pattern is a tell for our winter this year.

  228. Just watched NECN with Tim Kelley he said that we should expect 40-80mph sustanined along the east coast of MA. Is this a bit high or in line with everyone’s thoughts?

      1. 40-80 on monday from south to north. He just said widespread wind field with lost of power outages. So I’d guess winds are going to be pretty strong inland.. I hope this helps.

  229. from the 5pm NHC update…look at the size of the tropical storm force windfield!!!

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM…FROM
    THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
    MILES…835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013…LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES…
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
    SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH…76 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH…
    94 KM/H.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB…28.38 INCHES.

  230. I’m kinda surprised we don’t have at least special weather statements for our area at the very least to let people know of some possibilities. Oh well.

    Heading out to a Halloween party for the rest of the night, but I’m sure ill be checking in on my phone for any updates.

    1. Patrick has had two confs and gave a really good list of what to do to,prepare. And declared mA as a state of emergency

        4. I think more warnings are coming up now for open water areas east and south of us. I think more warnings and special weather statements will be posted for inland areas as the night goes and early tomorrow.

  231. Everyone including the nhc r not taking it seriously at all, there will be work on Monday my wife was told, she told my wife its hitting New Jersey not here and doesn’t expect many problems here in mass, moderate storm surge

    1. If this storm does work out the way many are now thinking (more northerly track and large and potent windfield) then I think people maybe caught at work Monday afternoon as it looks like the highest winds maybe between Monday afternoon and Monday night.

      1. Agreed Vicki. If it looks like it’s going to be that bad come late tomorrow I’ll be working from home.

        1. I havto be in at 3am Monday for regular overtime. I suspect I may be there till Tuesday pm. Vacation is supposto start at 3:30 Tuesday, we will see.

          1. John son works 7-3 this week and my guess is once he gets there they won’t let him go either. I work from home of course but husband and son in law have been told to be at work as well. I think someone here said there may be a lot of people stuck at work. I agree

            1. We are the first responders for any storm. We won’t go home until the environment is safe, and the storm. Remember where I work safety is always first for any kind of weather. My normal hrs 7-3:30.

                2. For first responders. Sadly many unlike you and my son who are not first responders will be brought into work and may well be stuck.

                3. Ok vicki. You have me confused. I most definitely am one of the first responders for any hospital disruption or weather emergency. I’m not stuck at the hospital, its mandatory. Any day or time its our job.

  232. Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the waters from the Gulf of Maine to the Hague Line including the waters east of Cape Cod. Hurricane Wind Watch is out water from Provincetown to areas south and southwest.

      1. IIRC I think they need to wait until a certain amount of time before the storm is due to hit before posting warnings. Maybe someone who knows more about that can chime in.

        1. New tothe blog… But I think it is 36 hours for warning and 48 hours for a watch… The warnings and watches they have right now are the WATERS, most of the costal and inland areas have high wind watch right now… Except down to the VA…

  236. Is there anyway to figure out what we’re the sustained winds, duration and gusts for eastern mass during Irene? I think people could relate to this storm if you put it in that perspective.

      1. It should give sustained. We had 33 sustained with top gust 60. And framingham was a mess for power outages.

  238. Some of the latest info suggest the center comes right over or just south of NYC, if that happens, the entire area will receive a prolonged period of 60-70 mph wind gust

    1. I think the center is going to split NYC and Atlantic city and continue NW and go just west of Albany ny

  239. Latest 7 Weather blog really seems to imply this won’t be much. Hard to reconcile that with declared “State of Emergency……?”

    1. 7 has stuck by this for a couple of days. Pete has been right consistently in the past. This time whether he/they are or not I think they are causing a lot of people to let their guards down when as far as I can see they should not. I can’t see how anyone can say for sure one way or the other.

      1. I think what it is is these same people a year ago heard all the media say how Irene will be a historic storm and alotta people were disappointed and the media lost credibility so now a yr later the media is saying a historic storm for all of the northeast and alotta people r saying yeah right!! Even the mayors of cities r hesitate to do anything bc lets face it they invested time last time and got burnt, not saying I agree I’m just saying, I just think this will not be worse than what there saying and chances are it will be much less than what there saying esp for folks around here 🙂

  240. I heard channel 7 earlier say not a huge deal, he also says gust to 40 mph inland, most wind at coast and New Jersey

  241. Buoy report from a buoy appx 180 miles ESE of Cape Hatteras at 7:50 EDT

    Station 41001
    NDBC
    Location: 34.561N 72.631W
    Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
    Winds: ENE (70°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 46.6 kt
    Significant Wave Height: 23.0 ft
    Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: E (86°)
    Atmospheric Pressure: 29.31 in and falling
    Air Temperature: 73.0 F
    Water Temperature: 79.7 F

  242. I have returned from the SNE Weather Conference. A great day! More about that later…

    I have a few things to take care of and will be putting together a long awaited update as soon as possible!

    Thank you all for your patience.

    Also, there are several newcomers to the blog. Welcome to you all!

  243. If the winds more or less end up about the same as Irene in SNE, would this storm differ (assuming central NJ landfall) in the following ways for inland communities:

    Less rain
    Less leaves on trees (net of what has already fallen)
    Less flooding (rivers are lower pre-storm and less rain)
    Wind blows for a longer duration?
    Irene and Snowtober culled out a fair amount of weak limbs/trees

    You can add in you own, but most of that list is a positive for SNE vs. Irene. My expectation is if all winds are equal between Sandy/Irene, this should not have as much impact inland.

        2. There are many in western MA and VT that wish Irene didn’t pan out. The photos I saw today were stunning.

          We in eastern MA were the lucky ones.

          4. Agreed. We are in MetroWest and lost power for 6 nights with Irene and the tree damage was modest compared to what others experienced – we had no flooding either. In the grand scheme of things, it was an inconvenience, but no damage to property, etc.

  244. The wind field is bigger with this storm than Irene and also the pressure is much lower. This storm is going to take its sweet time getting out of here. I would not let my guard down with this storm. Yesterday skywarn sent out an email and said anything north of Cape May, NJ landfall could have big impacts in SNE. This storm is going to make landfall north of Cape May, NJ. Thanks to Coastal for posting that on the blog.

      1. I did not see anybody from 5. Harvey was on duty. There were a few less TV guys there than usual, for obvious reasons.

        I did have a nice chat with Todd Gutner from WBZ. Barry was on duty at the station.

  245. Well one great thing so far from this storm for me is that FM radio conditions are enhanced quite a bit (this happens often ahead of tropical systems…Tropical Storm tropospheric ducting). Right now I’m listening to WDSD 94.7 from Dover DE with a strong signal (Country music). CT and some NYC area FM stations are also in. Could be a good night 🙂

    1. Keith I think you just confirmed what my daughter thought. She coached two students at a horse show today. Both horses are typically very calm but were acting up. She heard others saying their horses were unusually skittish. My daughter thought it could be due to the approaching storm. Horses – all animals – are of course really sensitive to pressure changes

      1. Vicki I think you are right..the past few days my dog has been acting up…chasing the cats around more than usual, barking more at people walking by, etc. In fact this morning we took her out for a two hour walk down at Nantasket to let her get it out of her system. Seems to be working for now 🙂

    2. WALK 97.5 from Long Island is blasting in here right now. Normally I get WOKQ (semi local station for me) off the back of the antenna or just a lot HD radio hiss from 97.7

  246. Barry just posted his blog. Still leaving the door open a little for it to come closer if the turn doesn’t happen when the models are showing and happens a little later.

  247. Barry is calling for only 1-2″ of rain for Boston and even less for the Cape. It is too bad in a way because Logan is at -7.23″ so far for the year. All the good rains will fall well southwest of us.

  248. New blog finally posted.

    Thanks for your patience!

    If I missed a question, please repost on the new blog comment section. 🙂

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