What’s In A Name?

246 Comments

2:00AM

Sandy will no longer be Sandy when the impacts of the storm are felt here. But what’s in a name? I’ll leave it to the readers to debate whether or not that makes a difference in how people hear and interpret information. The meteorological truth is that Sandy will be a category one hurricane into Monday as it moves northward off the US Mid Atlantic Coast, and as it begins a left turn toward the NJ coast, it will lose tropical characteristics, and will no longer be tropical (by definition) by the time the center of the storm reaches land on the NJ coast Monday night.

We should not be focusing only on where that center crosses the coast, as the storm already has a very wide wind field and this will expand further as it loses tropical characteristics. This is the reason why significant and some damaging wind will take place in the forecast area in southern New England.

So, this storm, though very significant, will not be a “classic” New England hurricane. Here’s a summary of what to expect in the region starting in southern areas late Sunday night and spreading northward Monday into Monday night, before slowly subsiding Tuesday as the storm spins down over land…

Wind: A moderate northeast breeze will develop Sunday but winds will not be that significant during the day. They will increase at night and build during the day Monday, peaking during the hours of 3PM to midnight Monday afternoon and night. During the peak time, winds will blow from the northeast to east. Sustained winds will be 25-35 MPH inland except 30-40 MPH in higher elevations and 35-45 MPH in coastal locations. Gusts will be 45-65 MPH inland, 55-70 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. For Cape Cod and the Islands, add 5 to 10 MPH to all of these wind speeds. Isolated peak gusts that are slightly stronger may occur. Again, please remember that the gusts are just that, gusts, not sustained winds. During these gusts are when most of the wind damage takes place.

Coastal flooding: Widespread moderate coastal flooding is likely at the times of high tides, with the most critical high tides around 11AM Monday, midnight Monday night, and noon Tuesday. Areas of major flooding may occur at high tide times in portions of the South Shore of MA, Cape Cod and the Islands, and RI. Storm surge peak will occur on the South Coast of New England for Monday night’s high tide. Storm surge of up to 5 feet above normal tides may occur. Keep in mind that these high tide cycles are occurring during the time of a full moon. Astronomical tides are higher during full and new moon times.

Rain: This storm will NOT be a major rain producer. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be common. Isolated 3 to 4 inch amounts are possible, especially where rainfall can be enhanced by air moving up the slopes of hills in north central MA and southwestern NH. Any flooding from rain would be mostly minor to locally moderate and only in the most flood prone areas.

By Tuesday, the worst will be over, and though winds will still be very gusty it will be much less stormy than Monday. Winds will shift more to the southeast as the low pressure area spins over the interior Northeast. Additional showers will take place, though the heaviest rain will be over. The remains of the storm will continue to spin down and decay on Wednesday over the interior northeastern US. There will be additional showers in our area but some drier air will also work up from the south and southwest with periods of improved weather. As November gets underway, the trough will lift out and be replaced by high pressure and improving weather into next weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of light rain or drizzle late afternoon. Highs 56-61. Wind NE 5-10 MPH to start increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day, gusts around 25-30 MPH may take place by the end of the day Cape Cod & South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain. Lows 50-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coastal areas, with higher gusts.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs around 60. Lows around 55. Wind NE shifting more E later, increasing to 25-45 MPH with gusts 45-70 MPH inland (see above for more detail).

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers. Highs around 65. Lows around 55. Wind SE 20-35 MPH with higher gusts,  slowly subsiding.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few additional episodes of showers. Highs 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 56.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 55.

THANK YOU EVERYBODY for being patient while it took me forever to update this blog. I was at a conference for nearly 12 hours today, and hit some famous Boston traffic on Route 93 heading back home, and between needing to refuel and rest, the result was a long delay in updating. Thanks for sticking with me! Please use the comments below for questions, observations, and other thoughts regarding this storm or anything weather-related.

Also, if you are on Facebook, don’t forget to “like” the Woods Hill Weather page and tell you friends about it. 🙂

246 thoughts on “What’s In A Name?”

  3. There’s 2 things I’m interested in watching today…….

    1) the 70 degree longitude mark……which seems to be where the northwesterly turn begins

    2) the pressure…..now for 24 hrs, its consistently been around 960 mb…..but, is expected to lower later. How low will it go ?

  4. Thanks TK and great analysis.
    The one silver lining with this is the rainfall amounts won’t be that high. I have all my preps done and now just waiting to see what this storm has in store for us. I am hoping not to lose power like I did during Irene and snowtober.

  5. Some current tide anomolies (surge)

    Cape Hatteras : (+2.33 ft above normal) I’m guessing, for the Outer Banks, they dont have much elevation to spare

    Ocean City, Inlet : +1.88 ft

    Cape May, NJ : +1.95 ft

    The Battery, NY +1.45 ft (already)

    Bridgeport, CT : +2.01 ft

    Woods Hill, MA : +.96 ft

    Boston : +1.34 ft

  6. Melissa/Joe Joyce this am: Monday around Boston = 1.5-2.5″ of rain, lots of wind at 40-50mph, gusts could be near hurricane levels, lots storm surge, but coastal flooding will be moderate (more towards the Cape).

    As others have said, the storm seems to be a BIG wind producer and less of a precip producer for us. Storm is now about 275 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras. Wind at 80 mph. Speed at 13 mph. 960 mb.

  9. EXCELLENT POST TK. ALL THE HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS DOWN. WE SHALL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. GETTING MY REST TODAY AS I WILL PROBABLY BE WORKING THIS STORM TILL WEDNESDAY, TAKE CARE. EVERYONE PLEASE BE SAFE.

    4. Be VERY safe, John!!!

      Grandson is crying with the decorations coming down as I type. I know your son was upset too.

      1. HE WAS. BUT UNDERSTANDS. AIRBLOWNS STILL OUT, BUT THOSE ARE STAKED IN THE GROUND. BELIEVE ME STILL PLENTY INSIDE. I JUST RAN MY FIRST RACE SINCE THE 2007 MARATHON. IT WAS A 5K AND I DID GREAT FINISHING IN UNDER 35 MINUTES.

  12. Thanks TK!

    I finally see two public school closing. When will the rest of the schools do the same? I know Plymouth usually waits until 6am on the day to cancel which puts us in a bad situation. I figured with a SOE issued that they will be canceled soon.

    How is MPH calculated? Average wind speed per minute which calculates the low and high wind gusts?

    1. It will be interesting to see when/if school systems decide……

      My instinct says that most schools will be closed tomorrow, because by morning, the wind will already be 20 to 30mph along the coast, only to increase during the day. The bus paths / walking paths in Marshfield are surrounded by tons of trees, so, I cant see that being safe….

      I’m just hoping we dont lose several days this week due to loss power or damage. We done need to be using lots of days off without the first flake of snow flying.

      1. I agree! My daughter was excited about possibly having the day off tomorrow until I reminded he has she would have to make it up in June!

  15. Mornin’ all! Heck of a halloween party last night but im geared up ready to go today 🙂 Interesting write up from Brian Norcross of TWC about the downplaying of this storm by Mayor Bloomberg and the NHC’s handling of Sandy post-tropical. Gotta love his honesty.

    http://spaghettimodels.com/

    The write up is on the right side of the page under “Mike’s Weather Page” Its the first updated story on there now but u may have to scroll down to see it if theres more updates.

  16. Thanks, TK! Great explanation!

    We’re all set w/extra flashlights, batteries, etc. Everyone stay safe!

  17. Thanks TK.

    I think this storm will be a big surprise for all involved. The NJ/NY are going to wake up on Tuesday an not know hat hit them.

    1. You may be quite right about that area. 3 high tides to pile water up. Storm surge may surprise people down there. Wind gusts will be damaging, no doubt, but the storm surge may become the real story in some areas.

    2. On the EURO, when I looked at its initialized pressure of 965 mb, I thought…ok, now its more inline with the actual pressure, of 960 mb…..and then the recon plane found that the pressure had fallen to 951 mb.

  19. Stay very safe everyone. And thanks to those like John who have to be out in this to make sure all others are safe.

    What is everyone doing about work tomorrow? We are trying to figure out when it will not be safe to be on the roads………….or is that pretty much all day?

    1. I have to go in as of now. Hoping that changes. We were told not to utilize work from home for any of our employees due to possible power outages.

      1. Good luck, north. My husband, SIL and son will go to work as well. I’m hoping businesses are smart and do not hold people until it is too risky to be on the road.

      1. Thank you both very much. My guess is many will be heading home early.

        TK echoing what everyone has said, thank you very much for the hard work you do. There are many friends and family who ask me what you have said will happen and I suspect that is the case with others here as well.

  20. Regarding name to not name…

    I’m taking a wild guess here but maybe there’s a silver lining in no name.

    I bet there are many people on the coast who do not have hurricane coverage either because they didn’t want to spend on the increased premium or maybe they can’t even buy it. So, if it’s technically a gale, those affected might have be able to recover losses from insurance.

    Just a guess

    1. Good point, Retrac.
      Ironically, I received an update last week to my homeowner’s insurance policy regarding new hurricane coverage and increasing or decreasing the deductable for only that part of the policy. Something new in the state, I gather???

      1. Hey Shotime,

        Yeah its something new. Commerce has added a 1% wind deductible for named storms as well as travelers up to 2 miles from the coast. Arbella doesn’t have a wind deductible yet and a couple others may want to shop around.

  21. Joe Joyce‏@JoeJoyceWBZ
    Watching atmospheric pressure w/ Sandy. If pressure falls below 946 mb., it will be stronger than most Northeast’s greatest hurricanes.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Winds of 90 kts 2’500 ft above our heads Monday. Could mix down in rain and forward momentum of storm. Damaging wind threat is real.

  22. Hi All;

    I still feel comfortable with my landfall prediction of Long Beach Island, NJ. Maybe a bit south of that will prove correct?

    I want to clarify a word choice I used the other day. I said winds in SNE would be negligible. That was a poor word choice. It was pretty clear this was not going to be an event with sustained hurricane or even strong tropical storm winds where most people live in SNE. Yet there was this constant beating of the drum about a hurricane in SNE and too much talk about hurricane force winds, when wind was not the major threat in my opinion. I should have more clearly articulated that. There will be wind with this storm.

    Here is what I am thinking-

    Rain bands start tomorrow morning and breeze picks up. Later tomorrow afternoon say 5pm on, the most intense part of the storm begins and lasts about 12 hours. After that a gradual diminishing of the winds, but a significant breeze with gusts will remain for into Thursday.

    Winds in Inland SNE 20-30mph with gusts to 40-50 out the E/ENE
    Winds in coastal areas 30-40 mph with gusts to 50-60 out of the E/ENE

    Upper elevations inland could experience winds inline with the coastal area wind predictions.

    Rain amounts will generally be 1.5-2.5″

    I think a sneaky part of this storm will be upper elevations of western and central MA, southern VT and NH could get moderately to significantly enhanced rainfall from an orographic lift set up and exposed east facing hilly areas could be the most susceptible to wind damage.

    Some mitigating factors to wind damage-The trees are much further along in their senescence process this year compared to last year at this time. Many leaves have already fallen from the trees and those that have not are close to coming down. THe more of these leaves that come down in the early stages of the storm during the lighter breezes, the better. Branches on trees without leaves tend to not snap as frequently,as they are more flexible and the wind tends to travel through the trees easier. Also the lack of heavy rain this Fall has kept the root structures from softening andbeing more susceptible to sudden upheaval and entire trees toppling down. So those two factors could help limit some wind damage from trees and branches.

    My main concern is coastal flooding and tidal surges from the already high tides. Flooding kills much more than wind. Please, in coastal areas take this part of the storm’s potential impacts most seriously.

    I know all weather is local for people and what is happening in their back yard is most important. Here this storm will most likely go down as a strong Fall nor’easter, but in NJ, Delaware, West Virginia (snow) this storm’s impact will be remembered for years .

    1. Thanks JMA! We are in general agreement. I forecast an Asbury Park landfall on Thursday and am going to hold with it. Not that the exact point matters too much unless it’s significantly different from there one way or another.

      I know my writing style may make it sound like I don’t think this will be serious, but believe me, it will be serious and memorable in many many places. I don’t like comparisons to 1938 too much only because the storm is such a different animal than that one was. And Blue Hill won’t be gusting to 186 MPH this time. 😉

      Seriously though, thank you. And everybody please stay safe!

      JMA if you can hang around and post as often as you can with your thoughts, that would be excellent!

  23. I suspect (and hope) schools will be shut down statewide for Monday and perhaps some for Tuesday. Lynn Public Schools have already shut down and UNH have cancelled classes for both days if I am not mistaken.

    Also I just heard that NYC subways will shut down tonight at 7:00 pm!!

    Have a good day everyone and stay safe! 🙂

  24. I wonder if Sandy is actually strengthening… The recon vortex data say there is a partial eyeball forming… This is not good…

    1. For the first time in a couple of days, there are some brighter, colder cloud tops on the eastern side of the circulation.

  26. I have a very respectful question. How is it that there can be one media source talking about “pressure rivaling the Northeast’s greatest hurricanes” when there isn’t even a tropical storm watch if I’m not mistaken? It really has me confused. I don’t know a single person who’s done anything other than ridicule the “hype” to prepare for this storm. Not sure what to make of these extremes…….?

    1. If I heard and read the correctly…..the NHC is not issuing tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings in the northeast because of the transition of the storm from tropical to something other than tropical. Policy wise, technically…its probably correct, but logic wise, I think its not in the best interest of public safety.

  27. Neat comment in most recent recon message…..

    Spiral seen visually in low clouds beneath aircraft at center location.

    Pressure : 952 mb.

      1. Depends on what altitude they were flying at…..if they were higher up….then maybe they were saying they could see the circular center even in the lower clouds…….if they were a little closer to the surface, maybe they could see a little spin rotating within the bigger center…….

      2. John if you are running Windows 7 try this Click on the Start go All Programs, Accessories, Ease of Access (or Accessibility in WinXP), On-Screen Keyboard. Click the Caps Lock key on the on screen keyboard.

              1. try taking the battery out…then back in….I’ve had some issues with phones that got fixed that way.

      3. Hi John.

        Stepped out with family for a bit……

        Several hours of sustained to 40 mph, with a few gusts to 60 mph.

          1. Vicki, we were out for a ride kind of checking that out….and I can say that less people are boarded up then for Irene. A bit confused because Irene’s winds were more southerly, while these winds are likely to be more easterly, which I think is part of the reason eastern New England is going to see strong winds.

        2. NOT GOOD. I WOULD LOVE TO TAKE A RIDE DOWN TO THE OLD NEIGHBORHOOD AND SEE IF PREP IS GOING ON. I’M JUST BEAT FROM THE RACE, AND TIME FOR PATS. MY WIFE ACTUALLY JUST LEFT TO GO TO GERADS FOR DINNER TONIGHT. THANKS TOM. GO PATS.

          1. How was the race John? It’s so funny to hear you say Gerard’s since we have one practically at the end of our street I designed and manage his web site. The one in marshfield is his uncles

            1. THE RACE COULD NOT HAVE GONE BETTER. YES, GERADS TURKEY FARM IS A LANDMARK IN MARSHFIELD. GREAT FOOD. WERE GETTING THE TURKEY DINNERS, YOU KNOW INDIVIDUAL ONES, IT FILLS YOU UP.

  29. There’s so much hype that if there’s no damage or excitement here people will never listen to the weather again I was told, I told him its not gonna be that bad, I told him to expect winds only of 30-40mph gust maybe to 50 mph, he says he heard the weather people say gust to 80mph and that this storm rivals other New England hurricanes,, he and I just laughed, have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. It may not be widespread severe damage, but some places are going to be hit very hard. I only hope and pray that it’s not as bad as it has the potential to be. People don’t understand. It’s not always hype. It’s information on what CAN happen. I’m the last to hype, but I am worried about the potential damage from this, not everywhere, but certain vulnerable locations.

      1. I’m sure there won’t be any major damage around Boston, a lot of the damage will be far south and west, as always hope all is well

        1. Charlie – How can you be so sure?

          IMO, it’s always better to over prepare. Provide folks with the facts, tell them that it is a potentially dangerous situation and allow them the time and space to get ready for what’s coming.

            1. I just feel that “under-hype” is just as bad, no, worse than “over hype”.

              If there is any chance for loss of life, property, or anything of value, the general public and local government needs to be prepared and take it seriously.

          2. I think it’s just the fact that when something is headlined and we r all just waiting its never as bad, I see the models, I just won’t believe unless I see it, on the flip side it’s very rare to have something under played for it to turn out big, I’m playing the odds, have a good day!

            1. Charlie I think people have a tendency to build it to more than it is in their minds rather than listen to what is being said. That is the fault of the listener blaming the messenger I have not seen any hype at all. I would say if anything it is under hyped.

  31. When I look at this EURO image, it is scary in its own way. Right now I am also wondering if the models have the right idea about the “after landfall” track. There seems to be a consensus of cutting through PA and then north to upstate/western NY. Thinking it might curve a somewhat east again and give western MA a little more punch.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=048&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=024&fixhh=1

  32. I will be away from the blog for a few hours. We have a huge annual Halloween Parade in Woburn on the last Sunday of October every year. It’s a big tradition.

    Last year, just 9 hours before parade time, the streets were snowcovered with snow still falling. The street was plowed, the parade went on, albeit with a few cancellations from some bands. This year, we’re getting it in just before the weather rolls rapidly downhill. Woburn is such a close city. Many of the floats and bands are from right in or right around the city. Some bands come from as far away as NH and even RI. We’ve had BC, BU, Harvard, UMass Amherst, march in this. UMass Lowell marches every year. Of course, Woburn High School and many of the surrounding high schools and others from as far away as Tyngsboro, Lawrence, Peabody, etc., show up for this. The most notable band in my opinion to march, and they still do yearly, is the Waltham Legion, once lead by the great Dorothy Hill (1915-2004). We also used to get an entire division made up of the Aleppo Temple Shriners out of Wilmington. They don’t send their entire contingent as they used to, but they are still represented. It used to take them 15 minutes to pass by! The entire parade is about 90 minutes over a 2.2 mile route. My son is marching in it today as a sign carrier.

    A cool, cloudy, breezy day, with some drizzle at times, but not bad. We’ve had alot worse on parade day. In 1999 it was in the 30s with snow showers throughout. We’ve had years where the temperature was in the middle 70s. IF this parade were being held in 1925 on the last Sunday of October(25th), Woburn had an F1 tornado touch down in the middle of town, travel part of the parade route, and make its way to Stoneham MA before dissipating. It was actually a killer tornado with one death on Salem Street in Woburn from a falling chimney. Also, in Woburn center, a church steeple came down and landed on the hood of a car, sparing 3 women inside. Anyway, nothing like that today!

    I’ll be checking in here periodically after 4PM and moreso tonight. Also my wife’s birthday today. I think it’s going to be a take-out birthday dinner with friends this time. 😉

    Have a great day everybody!

    1. TK, have fun! Sounds like a busy and fun-filled day! I bet your son is excited about being in the parade. And Happy Birthday to your wife!

    2. The parade is a big Lions Club fundraiser supporting eye research. Good cause!
      I’m a member of the melrose Lions. The Woburn Halloween Parade is one of the biggest Lions events of the year.
      Tja

    3. TK, have a wonderful family day! Sounds like Woburn knows how to put on a celebration. Thanks for all your time and energy keeping us all updated on Sandy, especially since you’ve had and continue to have a very full plate this weekend. Most appreciated 🙂
      ENJOY!!!

    1. She was with me at the parade. 🙂 She’s very excited for a day off tomorrow. I’m turning her into a little weather nut.

      1. Im excited for her. I hate to say it but I don’t know who was more excited – my kids or me. I let out a whoop today when I saw endicott cancelled and my daughter thought they’d cancelled for my grandson

        How was the parade. Did you stay relatively dry?

        1. It was drizzly most of the time. We did not get soaked, just a bit damp. The parade was awesome. 🙂

  35. Harvey Leonard is saying this will be an historic storm from VA to ME. He does not say these things often so I believe it. This is not hype, but what it will be. Somebody from this blog will be affected by the storm unfortunately. Be safe all.

  37. I’ve been wondering something about the winds. It’s obvious there will be very strong winds 1000+ feet up. In order to get some of the strongest winds down to the surface u need convection and heavier precip. With the lack of this precip forecast in eastern sections I’m wondering how we’re gonna get these winds down to the surface

    1. I was half thinking there could by splashes of sun tomorrow….and wondering if a punch of mild, humid air will be trying to push in. The displacement of today’s cool air might also aid in mixing.

        1. after about 20 minutes of almost calm winds and even that splash of sunlight….back to heavy drizzle and gusty winds.

    2. Franklin, Lynn, marshfield and a friend said her daughter told her Worcester closed. Framingham always waits until the last minute. Well see

  40. 12z GFS, first frame, pressure is 972 mb, and at landfall, its 952mb….so, its forecasting a 20 mb intensification. Of course, the current pressure is around 952 mb.

    Thinking this will bottom out in the high 930s (I’ll go with 937 mb……cant believe I just typed that).

      1. I’m afraid we may be looking at a short week, there goes mid June. 🙁

        Guessing what the lowest pressure, in millibars, the storm will be. The current pressure is 952 mb.

        BTW…Pats defense continues its stellar play.

  41. From buoy 44008…….only 54 nautical miles south of Nantucket….

    East-Northeast wind at 27.2 knots, gusting to 33 knots.

    Wave height : 11.8 ft.

  42. Don’t have any weather knowledge to add but enjoy reading everybodys post. It feel like this is a warm up for the winter.

  43. My guess on the lowest pressure might be 940… It has been wobbling up and down, and latest recon came back was 953…

            1. Historical perspective: Superstorm 1993 is 960mb, Hurricane Ike is 950ish at landfall, last year Halloween Snowstorm is 970s, Bob in 1991 has peaked 950, and landfall around 960ish

  46. Here’s a question: people are saying to make sure you are able to charge your cellular phones from car if necessary. If I’m not mistaken, last yr. w/Irene, cellular service was out for awhile. I am going to keep my cell phone on charge here at home throughout the storm, unless the lights go out. But then what happens if cell service goes out?

    1. I didn’t lose cell service but we have really bad service in our house and the booster won’t work without power

    2. US AS WELL. HAVE A NEW PHONE NOW, NOT SURE IF THAT WILL WORK BETTER. I GUARANTEE THOUGH I WON’T BE HERE, I’LL BE IN BOSTON.

  47. Current storm surge levels….

    Ocean City, MD : +2.81 ft

    Cape Hatteras, NC : +3.09 ft

    Cape May, NJ +3.06 ft

    The Battery, NY : +2.14 ft

    Boston : + 1.00 ft

  49. My husband just informed me we have 3 two-meter radios – it just depends on if they will get out. We probably would be able to get the Waltham repeater and possibly the Framingham repeater, ‘though that can be tricky at times. But I am hoping all services remain, although most chances are that some services will go out.

  50. More notes from recon plane…..

    ” Surface winds 67 knots (77 mph) measured by dropsonde 145 nautical miles west of the center in rainband “

    1. Well that’s not you or my son. Be safe. When do you head in John. Do you have clothes and all to sleep if there is a break?

      1. WE HAD PLANNED TO BE IN AT 3AM TOMORROW FOR OVERTIME FOR A JOB. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL NEED TO SPENT THE NIGHT TOMORROW. YES BRINGING CLOTHES. AS LONG AS I GET OUT AT 3:30PM TUESDAY, I’M GOOD. TUESDAY STARTS VACATION, REST OF THE WEEK OFF.

    1. Hingham will wait…always do.

      I’m sure the med center will be open but I’ll still have the option of working from home.

    2. My son went to Tulane so we dealt with Katrina. My daughter is at–would you believe?–UDel. They called classes off too late for her to come home, so she’s hunkering down there. So, I’m kind of hoping this thing comes right up here instead….

        1. Thanks. I’m figuring those buildings have been around for awhile and have withstood a lot. She’s a smart girl, and she’s got water, flashlights, food, and probably cookies.

        1. A whole bunch of schools closing now. Makes me wonder what in heavens name the others are waiting for. Will be curious to see of wayland closes. A few years back their philosophy was not to close period. Don’t know if they still adhere to that

        1. I know–she was in New Orleans for Katrina; she was in Delaware the year of their historic blizzards, and for the last hurricane when they worried about tornadoes. And that’s not even getting into that before she was five, we had 2 of the snowiest winters in New England. Come to think of it, she was home two winters ago when we had all that snow, but not last winter. There’s a definite pattern here.

  54. Just brought myboys to Plymouth Beach to check out the waves. It is certainly an angry Atlantic. Hope everyone stays safe!!!

    1. Sighhhhh. I absolutely love the ocean when it’s angry. Not for the destruction of course but for the sheer power. I bet your boys loved it

  55. Just saw on the weather channel that the lowest pressures every recorded in NY, Atlantic City and Philadelphia are all around 960 or 961mb. Looks like this may set a new record.

  58. The job for 3am tomorrow was just called off. We will be staying tomorrow night, and on call tonight. Tk doubt a call in tonight, do you think.

      1. Not sure. If there is no call in tonight, I will leave at regular time which is 5am. I will drive all the way in instead of parking in quincy since I wont be back home till at least tuesday night. I thought the worst starts at 9am tomorrow till 2am tuesday. I think. Maybe sombody can explain.

  59. I know many won’t see this post because it will get lost in the flood of posts. Not Sandy-related. The annual winter forecast given by “Doctor Dewpoint” who has better than 80% success in long range forecasting states that we’ll remain neutral to only a brief hint of El Nino, positive PDO, negative AO, frequent negative NAO, easterly QBO, and peak solar cycle (though a low peak) will combine to create a colder than normal winter for Boston with near normal snowfall.

      2. He did indicate that an eastern QBO neutral ENSO often leads to a lot of cut-offs. Those can produce prolonged snowstorms. One of the analog years is 1968-1969.

    3. With those favorable factors for snow are in place, why only an average winter for snowfall and not above normal?

      1. There were indications of drier than normal precip overall. Also, about a dozen analog years to these conditions all came in with between about 33 and 55 inches of snow for Boston, which averages 44. There were no outliers.

        1. I should note that the 1968-69 analog did not fit all the conditions. It fit the neutral ENSO, easterly QBO.

    1. I don’t know but one of their headlines only highlighted “major moisture” which indicates flooding rain, which isn’t going to happen. What about making wind and coastal flooding the priority? I don’t think a meteorologist is writing those headlines.

  61. And the side of the storm we haven’t been talking about. Looks at these projected snow totals from NWS for the southern appalachains!

    SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
    MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
    THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
    THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER…WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

    1. Impressive. But we do know this can and has happened in October in those mountains before. Even earlier than now. The thing is, people will associate it with “Sandy” and it becomes more “incredible”. 🙂

      1. The drifts should be pretty impressive as well, coupled with the forecasted 60 mph wind gusts! Blizzard warnings in effect now for W Virginia.

    2. After spending a week back in July on top of Snowshoe Mtn in WV I can tell you that they have some wild weather up there.

  62. Winds really gusting here in CT already, although we are at 700′. Noticed Logan has been gusting over 30 the past few hours as well. Is this thing ramping up more quickly than anticipated? I realize the wind field is huge, but with another 18 hours yet to go before things really start to get cranking, this seems like an ominous start.

    2. The term “historic” storm does not mean every location will measure something historic. This will be a historic storm in several ways. It’s already set a record for the largest wind radii in a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. It may set a record for pressure. And it may also rival or set some storm surge records for tropical or non tropical cyclones in some locations. This is not going to be an ordinary northeaster for a fair amount of the population in the Northeast.

      1. Framingham hasn’t closed yet but natick did and usually they go hand in hand. Only can guess what they are waiting for

    1. Mike Wankum said that as well talking about scituate. He said the water will be going over the walls and stuff,. but seemed to think structures might be find. Its his home town.

  66. Going to move up timing somewhat. Probably by 6 hours with peak of the storm for our area beginning late morning into the late evening hours tomorrow, as opposed to later afternoon into the early morning hours. Also the heaviest rain bands will be shorter lived, but the heaviest winds will coincide with the period of heaviest rain in the late afternoon. After that the best synoptic forcing for rain will shift west of the forecast area. The winds will be slower to diminish but should slacken after midnight if not a little before. Yes, coastal flooding is my biggest fear, but the potential terrain enhanced precip and possible eastern slope wind damage I think are being under reported for the SNE forecast area by the media outlets. It is not as sexy I guess? Also I think we could see some typical winter storm type behavior from this system with valley shadowing effects limiting winds and rain amounts in CT River Valley and maybe even the Merrimack Valley as well.

  67. Todd (BZ) at 6:30.

    noon to midnite worst of it
    The word historic was used in terms of 1) the size of the storm, 1040 miles wide; 2) storm surge in SE MA
    Power outages a given
    Boston = 1.55″ rain

  68. BTW…Great game today. Offense was clicking. D looked pretty good. We needed a game like that.

  69. I need to run out at 6am tomorrow morning for about an hour. What will conditions be like at that time?

  70. My work cancelled so have the day off tomorrow. Ive never been to the ocean during a storm. I know its dangerous but im still kinda curious. Would love to see 20+ foot waves and feel the fury of nature as it comes in from the ocean. Is there anywhere along the coast that will be safe to watch?

    3. Your company seems to really care about its employees between events and now canceling. The ocean is amazing during a storm but you’d have to drive there and back during and you’d have to know the terrain and how it typically floods. Yes I’m a worrier 🙂

      1. Yea I was kinda shocked they cancelled. It cancelled 2 winters ago for one of those monster blizzards, and before that they hadnt cancelled since ’78. It would be a drive for me to get down there but was thinking of leaving early in the am, but id still have to get home which is the part that worries me.

  71. We have had very little wind in Sudbury so far – occasionally a brief, strong breeze. But I imagine it will change later tonight or tomorrow morning. The storm is holding its strength and as I watch it move northeasterly I realize how unusual this storm will be as it starts heading north and then northwest and west.

    I am going to shut down for the night and hopefully will be on tomorrow, unless the lights go out early. Stay safe everyone!

    And thanks, TK, for taking the time out of your busy day to keep us well-informed.

  72. I wonder when Sandy is supposed to start moving more N and then NW. If shes gets to 70.0 deg W without turning, i wonder if she ends up more north.

    1. Officially at 70.9 west Longitude on the 8 pm advisory…..I think the motion will become more northerly the next few hours. The spaghetti plots are so tightly clustered now, that I think the track is reliable.

      2 days ago, the pressure held around 970 mb for about 24 hrs……yesterday, around 960 for 24 hrs and today, around 950 mb. The gulf stream lies ahead the next seeveral hours and the interaction with the sharpening jet stream should begin soon. Looking fowards to watching the pressure the next 12 to 18 hrs.

  73. I was looking at that as well or does making it to 70 simply make the left turn that more sharp later (i.e. is there a lat this storm will not cross and go due east)?

  74. Not sure Captain. With everything moving more quickly I would think the turn would also happen more quickly. We’ll see at the 11pm update but it was forecast to begin the turn by that update. Interesting to see that a couple models never have Sandy turning back. NHC discussion addressed this by saying those are outliers and those errors are expected due to the transition to post-tropical.

      1. It will def turn, just wondering if it turns later and more north and east of forecast area, will that mean an eventual landfall north of forecast. 8pm advisory has Sandy at 34.0 N 70.9 W and still moving NE. If she hasnt at least turned N by the 11pm advisory, then hmmm

          1. Just a curious observation john. Dont know if the position of turning will have an effect on eventual outcome.

  76. Storm surge (current) from various tidal guages…….

    Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel : +3.77 ft

    Ocean City Inlet : +2.98 ft

    1. I’ve driven across that bridge/tunnel and the bridge is not very high off of the water…..I’m guessing they may have closed it to traffic and also have been to Ocean City and that nice coastal town probably is no more than 10 ft elevated above the high tide line.

      1. Tom we drove across it once on a trip home from SC so we could see the horses on chincoteage and assateague. (Sp). It is amazing isn’t it and I think you are absolutely correct that is is closed.

        1. Small world Vicki….out of the last 4 April vacations, we have camped for a week in Assateague. Had the horses on our site on a few occasions. Really loved the day trip we took a couple of times to Chincoteague. Thought it was cool to drive by a NASA complex they have down their.

          2. I have goosebumps remembering our trip. I’ve always wanted to be there for pony penning day. Mac so far has managed to talk me out of it. He knows we’d come home with a pony :). What a wonderful place to camp. It’s a special area

  77. Watching TWC coverage and I dont know how reliable it is, but they ran a simulation of the RPM model……..noticed on it that it had a signal for some decent rain squalls in eastern Mass and with the low level jet above our region at 70 to 90 knots, any heavier shower would help to mix some of that wind to the surface.

  78. I have a question sandy is at about 70 degrees latitude and wasn’t suppose to go beyond that, does that concern anybody that its on the northern track

    1. No…….it wont get much further east of 70 W Longitude. There’s an atmospheric wall that can be seen on satellite to its east.

  79. With the TV sound off, the wind can easily be heard. There’s been waves of thick mist since about 2pm this afternoon. So close to the frictionless ocean, I think coastal communities are in for a long day tomorrow.

    1. Not much more than 10-14 mph here but I can hear it now. We had the waves of mist earlier. My daughter thought it was smoke from somewhere.

  80. wow its been interesting day. I had micca finals that we performed at ( UMass lowell marching band ) exhibition. the morning was okay but around 11 to 12 it started to drizzle out . it went down hill from there along with the temps. I even brought this small wind recorder and it measured a 25mph gust with steady winds of 14-18mph
    My back yard weather station is recording winds of 16-19mph from the northeast accational gusts up to 22-25 mph.
    drizzle/light rain

      1. You too Vicki. As of now off to work in the morning and no posting since the site comes up as blocked there and on my work cell :(.

  81. Harvey now says that we can expect Major coastal flooding in revere, scituate, and cape.. Is this storm getting stronger or moving north more? Any thoughts?

  82. A question… If this storm is such a beast, at what point does its momentum overcome or push into the atmospheric blocks that are going to steer it back to the west? I guess in mind I envision it like bumper pool but when is the ball big enough to chart its own course?

    1. The high to the north is a dense mountain of air, more influential. It is the gradient between Sandy and this high that is making the wind what it will be.

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