The Week Ahead

364 Comments

12:50AM

The format is altered a little for this entry to shorten things up yet cover everything in a forecast for the next 7 days.

Decided to go ahead with the regular Sunday night post. It will just be front-end-loaded with info of course, with an update regarding Sandy and her impact, or the impact of the storm that was once Sandy, as it still loses tropical characteristics just prior to landfall on the coast of NJ. As stated in the previous entry, a large area of strong to damaging wind as well as coastal flooding and storm surge will exist north of the storm center which includes all of southern New England. I will save the wind break down and rainfall and storm surge numbers for the forecast below. Note that the only real changes to this forecast are to speed up the landfall time a little bit, therefore moving up the peak hours of the storm to during the late morning through late evening of Monday. There will be slight adjustments upward to the storm surge numbers and no big changes with the previous wind forecast and rainfall amounts. Still looking for things to subside Tuesday and Wednesday, with more improvement later in the week as November gets underway. The low pressure area that was Sandy will take much of the week to really leave the area, drifting northward through NY Wednesday then down the St. Lawrence River Valley Thursday and Friday. High pressure finally dominates for next weekend, which should be nice.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

Weather: Overcast through Monday night, mostly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Periods of rain/drizzle through Monday morning, an episode of heavier rain Monday afternoon/evening, tapering off to periodic showers Monday night through Tuesday, then showers becoming less numerous and scattered Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Temperatures: Ranging from the lower 50s early Monday to the middle 60s Tuesday & Wednesday afternoons.

Winds: NE-E increasing through Monday afternoon to sustained 25-35 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH coast, but gusts much higher, 40-60 MPH inland and 45-75 MPH coastal areas and some inland higher elevations. Isolated peak gusts above 75 MPH may occur especially South Shore, Cape Cod, and Islands. By later Monday night, winds start to subside slowly but are still strong and gusty at times. Tuesday, winds shift more to the SE 15-25 MPH with a few higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations, and by Wednesday winds are mostly from the S 10-20 MPH.

Coastal Flooding: Full Moon occurring Monday enhances flooding. High tides 11AM Monday, midnight Monday night, and noon Tuesday, are the 3 of most concern, especially the Monday highs. This is when flooding will  peak and storm surge of up to a few feet can occur, especially on the South Coast, parts of Cape Cod, and RI.

Rain amounts and freshwater flooding: Rain amounts of 1 to just over 2 inches will be common, but some 3 or 4 inch and even isolated 5 inch amounts can be expected as winds blow up slope and rainfall is enhanced on the eastern slopes of hills and mountains in central MA into southwestern NH. Flash flooding may occur in these heavier rain areas. Otherwise, just a few areas of minor flooding are possible with street flooding in some locations where leaves block storm drains.

OUTLOOK FOR LATE WEEK… Variably cloudy Thursday & Friday with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND… Mostly sunny to partly cloudy Saturday & Sunday with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs in the lower to middle 50s.

One quick note! I hope to be online throughout the storm (with the exception of several hours during the day Monday when I will be out). If for some reason a power loss prevents me from updating, I will get on as soon as power is restored. Please, everybody, be smart and safe during the storm, no matter where you are. I hope you are prepared for the worst, but let’s hope for the best! And thanks to all of you for being part of the blog!

364 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Current water levels :

    Ocean City, MD : + 3.71 ft

    Cape May, NJ : + 3.5 ft

    The Battery, NY : + 2.56 ft

    Boston : + 2.40 ft (high tide later this morning at 11:31 am)

    2. Buoy 44008, 54 nautical miles SE of Nantucket :

      ENE wind at 33 knots, gusting to 39 knots, wave heights : 16 ft.

      1. Per the NHC…

        The center is about 285 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC and 385 miles south/southeast of NYC, currently moving north at 15 mph

        1. Sorry Tom, you threw me off with pm. Had just woken up so it took me a bit to realize you meant am 🙂

  7. Currently about 350+ miles SSE of NYC; winds at 85 MPH; moving at 15 MPH.

    Looks like a good snow in the hills of VA and especially WVA.

    Joe Joyce — we should expect “a wall of wind” to hit us.

    1. Carl Parker on TWC just reported that the recon plane most recently found an extrapolated pressure of 941 mb !!!!!!

  8. I read that too, Tom. And from Matt Noyes:

    @MattNoyesNECN: Boston MA tidal gauge running 2.5 foot storm surge – was forecast to be 1.5 at this time. That’ll make big diff at E.MA coasts @SurfSkiWxMan

    1. DS…to your question above, I think the last frame or 2 on satellite loops looks like there’s a hint of it moving N/NW as opposed to due north.

  10. Thanks TK

    T is open so we are expected in at work!!! Not happy that I have to leave the kids and wife at home alone but such is life in the private sector 🙂

    2. The real problem will be when everyone is let early, around 2-3 this afternoon.
      Be safe out there, Hadi!!!

      1. Hadi please be safe. Husband left at his usual 5:00ish time but, as shotime said, it’s this afternoon I am really worried about. I do wish more businesses would take the path of AceMaster’s and show concern for their employees.

  11. Thanks TK and great analysis as always.
    I hope everyone makes it through the storm okay and I look forward to continue to chat with you all throughout the event as long as the power doesn’t go out. If the power goes out I got the flashlights ready along with the pop tarts.

  12. Thank you TK!

    Sky is that yellow gray this morning – I seem to remember seeing it before every tropical system arrived.

    Wind is maybe a touch stronger than last night with a gust of 22 earlier but it’s a quiet wind so far.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    I have no way of measuring the wind, but the wind looks like it has just picked up a little here. Before, just the treetops were moving – now the entire trees are moving back and forth. The sky has a bright, weird look to it, like Vicki says, just before most tropical storms arrive. Last weather I saw showed Sandy still intensifying – amazing. I will be reading and prob’ly posting as long as we have elec. Again, stay safe everyone!

    1. rainshine do you have a wunderground station near you? I have one at Garden in the Woods which as the crow flies is probably a bit less than a mile from me. It shows temps, wind, rain identical to my weather station. I actually prefer it to mine 🙂

      1. Old Lancaster Rd. That looks to be the closest to me. I looked up wunderground and it said to pick a station and that’s what came up. My husband’s laptop has the Willow Hill school that gives out weather info. Thank you! Never thought about it – I just would ask husband. Right now he is busy trying to put together a shortwave radio. He is not quite into the weather as much as me! 🙂

  14. Nearby Marshfield Airport….

    Winds NE at 22, gusting to 29. Waves of thick mist continue. Temp and dewpoint both at 55F and slowly rising.

  15. Current water levels :

    Sandy Hook, NJ : + 3.67 ft. Atlantic City, NJ : + 3.07 ft. The Battery, NY : + 3.09 ft

    Bridgeport, CT : + 3.14 ft. Providence, RI : +2.13 ft. Chatham : + 2.83 ft

    Boston : + 2.65 ft

  17. Just saw Barry Burbank’s update and he stated that the impact may not be as bad as they thought 12-24 hours ago.

    1. Interesting – he and Pete B have reversed rolls ……….. are they playing “good weatherman bad weatherman” 😮

    2. Yea watching Barry’s update now. He ‘s not impressed and said Sandy will go even further south with less impacts for us

        1. Nice that you are in plymouth – gives us an idea of what’s happening along the coast. Also Keith-Hingham – can’t remember if anyone else.

  18. GOOD MORNING. FIRST REPORT FROM BOSTON BRINGS A HEAVY DRIZZLE AND WIND GRADUALLY PICKING UP. BRANCHES FALLING EASILY. I WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE FROM BOSTON AS THE DAY AND NIGHT PROGRESSES IF I CAN. REPORTING FROM THE LONGWOOD MEDICAL AREA IN THE ELEMENTS. BE SAFE.

  19. Well the day is here, I’ll be waiting for the historic storm that suppose to come today, peak wind here so far has been 28mph, no trees down yet, b safe 🙂

    1. You are right that it’s historic. It is 900 miles wide – second biggest in history. It’s my understanding there may be other historical records she sets.

      2. We will know in around 6-8 hrs how historic it is, got a few things to do non related to the historic storm 🙂

        1. Charlie, you held out longer than most of us in maintaining your prediction that Sandy would not inflict terrible damage to these parts. My hunch is your prediction will verify.

  20. The storm’s highest sustained winds surged to 85 mph this morning as it began moving toward the north-northwest, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. update – and it could strengthen even further as it morphs into a messy, blustery “extratropical” storm later in the day.

  21. People judge how historic a storm is by how bad it is in there area not 200 miles away, enjoy the historic storm 🙂

          1. Charlie, I am glad you post here, and I very much respect your posts and opinions. But I have a problem with the way you present them. I’m sure you don’t mean it, but they have a tendency to come across as a little smug!

            Katrina was a historic storm for the entire nation and the loss of life affected (or should have?) all of us. For me, it was a testament to being prepared and knowing how and when to react to the worst.

              1. I would call Katrina historic for the nation and especially if you knew anyone who in anyway was connected to NO or the events surrounding the storm. If you don’t think so that’s fine but I find that line of thinking some isolationist in it’s thinking.

  22. I’m going with Barry Burbank on this one, and also Charlie on our blog. Woke up early this morning to the sound of silence. Practically no wind. And almost no rain. I almost always have the windows open to air out my place (even when it’s very cold out) and I’m used to hearing the wind and being able to guesstimate it’s strength when we get cold fronts coming in. Thus far, what we’ve had has not even been close to a strong cold front (say, a Montreal Express, as they used to call them). The windswept rain has been predictably absent, too. The Weather Center did nail that late last night, as they basically placed Boston in an area that could see as little as 1 inch of rain (and up to 2 inches), while to our south it’s a very different story. 200-300 miles south we can say it’s going to be historic in many ways. In most of New England, I highly doubt this will be historic.

    I know that the winds will pick up, but the Boston area will mostly be spared of Sandy’s wrath. I don’t even think the city will see a 60mph gust.

    It’s good to be cautious, and I do hope that everyone is safe and that property damage is minimal.

    2. By 8oclock tonight I think we will be saying it could have passed for a drizzly breezy day in New England, haha 🙂

  23. I never believed in this storm, disappointment is on the horizon for those that thought the big 1 was coming, have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. I don’t think anyone here was thinking the big one was coming. To me we have been having a great discussion about not only potential but the historic value and differences in this storm. I can only speak for me but thanks to everyone who has taken the time to post not only links but interpretation of those links during the lead up to this event I have learned a tremendous amount.

      1. You’re absolutely right, Vicki. It’s not about who’s right or wrong. I also learn a lot from the blog. I’m just an amateur interested in weather.

    2. Charlie I’m sorry, but I really don’t understand your comments. Already there are reports of trees on houses and cars and we aren’t even in the thick of it yet. As I said yesterday someone on the blog will be affected by the storm and will find your comments to be offensive.

  26. Um…

    Where is it?

    Woke up to silence, but there is some wind out there now. Nothing
    even approaching anything of concern. Sure looks like a Southern NJ
    landfall. Didn’t Tk say South of AC would lessen the Impact here?

    Was this the typical hype? OR will it be something here?

    We shall see.

  27. A friend of mine works for the same company I do and we pretty much do the same thing. His site is just south and east of Dover, DE. They are open for business as usual and my site in Walpole is closed. Hes at work and just spoke with him a few mins ago and he might not be able to get home as the conditions are quickly deteriorating down there. Glad my site was cautious, but man, i felt bad for him as he might not be able to get back to his family tonight.

  28. My landfall prediction over Long Island was way off. I did not think the negative tilt would be this strong which is quite anamolous for this time of year. I was very wrong, but I did have fun following the storm. And that is what it’s all about. However, even though there isn’t anything impressive going on in SNE as of yet, look for things to change and for winds to ramp up this afternoon. It doesn’t take much for damage and power outages to occur. Even Charlie may be suprised. Be safe all.

  29. 945 mb….still firing up convection north of the center and I think this cooler, drizzly, tough to mix airmass may transition to a milder, easier to mix airmass accompanied by an arrival of some heavier showers later today in that band S/SE of New England. Still wont be surprised by stronger winds later today, lets see how it plays out. 🙂

    1. I won’t be suprised either since I thought the higher wind gusts were not suppose to get here until at around 3pm, and continue through the evening.

    1. 10AM obs from Blue Hill:

      East Milton, MA
      (KMQE) 42.21N 71.11W

      Breezy
      54.0 °F
      Last Updated: Oct 29 2012, 9:54 am EDT
      Mon, 29 Oct 2012 09:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Breezy
      Temperature: 54.0 °F (12.2 °C)
      Dewpoint: 53.1 °F (11.7 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 97 %
      Wind: from the Northeast at 21.9 gusting to 47.2 MPH (19 gusting to 41 KT)
      Wind Chill: 49 F (9 C)
      MSL Pressure: 999.9 mb
      Altimeter: 29.50 in Hg
      Latest Raw Observation

      1. 10Am Boston Obs:

        Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
        (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

        Last Updated: Oct 29 2012, 9:54 am EDT
        Mon, 29 Oct 2012 09:54:00 -0400
        Weather: Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy
        Temperature: 55.0 °F (12.8 °C)
        Dewpoint: 54.0 °F (12.2 °C)
        Relative Humidity: 96 %
        Wind: from the Northeast at 32.2 gusting to 48.3 MPH (28 gusting to 42 KT)
        Wind Chill: 49 F (9 C)
        Visibility: 1.75 miles
        MSL Pressure: 1000.3 mb
        Altimeter: 29.54 in Hg

        1. And finally, 10AM obs from Nantucket: What does this mean?

          Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA
          (KACK) 41.26N 70.07W

          Last Updated: Oct 29 2012, 9:53 am EDT
          Mon, 29 Oct 2012 09:53:00 -0400
          Weather: Fog/Mist and Windy
          Temperature: 61.0 °F (16.1 °C)
          Dewpoint: 59.0 °F (15.0 °C)
          Relative Humidity: 93 %
          Wind: from the Northeast at 29.9 gusting to 44.9 MPH (26 gusting to 39 KT)
          Wind Chill: 57 F (14 C)
          Visibility: 5.00 miles
          MSL Pressure: 992.4 mb
          Altimeter: 29.31 in Hg

          1. No Problem. I, too, Am of from work.

            Curious as to why the wind isn’t stronger
            at Nantucket???? Strange.

  33. CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN. IS THIS NOT GOING TO BE THAT BAD. I SEE NOTHING DIFFERENT BEING SAID ON THE NEWS. T CLOSING AT 2PM.

  34. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    Amazing stat. Hurricane hunters confirm 945mb (27.91″) surface pressure. Beats ’38. Strongest ever north of N.Carolina.

    1. MBTA Hurricane Sandy Update
      All service will be suspended effective 2pm today. Customers are encouraged to make final MBTA trips as early as possible to ensure safe arrival at their destination.
      Regularly scheduled service will operate until service is suspended.

        1. I can tell you that T service was suspended during the blizzard of 78 since I clearly remember the trek home from 28 State St Boston, over the river (and through the hills) HA!!! to Cambridgeport, and quite the trek it was!

          2. I remember getting out of work (I was a young pup of 23 then) around 2 pm (worked down by South Station). Went to a bar for lunch and a few beers and when I came out around 4 I was thinking that I would never get home. Lived in Roslindale at the time. The El (the Orange line) was still running but that ride home took almost 90 minutes and the train seemed to be tilting something bad when going through Dudley. From Forest Hills I walked home and that took another 90 minutes or better.

      2. Thanks very much shotime – although I suspect they won’t let my son go I txt’d him to let him know. He had not heard it either.

  35. I would say 60-80 mph gusts are pretty bad, clearly we are avoiding the worst which I think we all knew already.

  38. The skies have actually brightened in Sudbury – but the winds have also picked up suddenly. First time I can hear them.

  39. Joe Joyce‏@JoeJoyceWBZ
    Astrotide is moving in. Piling into the harbor…soon to flood downtown Scituate
    Not a good situation!!!

    1. I believe it….just came back from a drive to Brant Rock Village.

      The Village is in good shape at the moment.

      However, before the village is a large seawall, where the waves, upon crashing into the wall, are sending large amounts of water onto Rte. 139. On occasion, it was blinding. Unfortunately, rte. 139 goes downhill into the village, so a river of water is heading into the village. The outbound lane out of Brant Rock was fillinf with water. The smaller section of seawall is also having a decent overwash with waves and is sending water into the village as well. One hour to high tide.

  40. Henry Margusity‏@Accu_Henry
    Landfall about 9pm tonight just north of Atlantic city on long beach island. HRRR model has pressure at 938 mb.

        1. That was my prediction on Thursday for Landfall-Long Beach Island. If that is what Henry now thinks, I am screwed! It might be the first time Henry and I have ever agreed on anything.

          1. LOL JMA!

            You might want to get a talisman to get whatever Margusity curse transfers to you before winter storm predicting starts!

    1. Storm is still on it’s way, however, impact in SNE may be less than previously thought. Shorelines should expect major impact due to flooding. However, inland wind may not be as much of a factor as forecasted 12 hours ago. Storm is really beginning to take a left hook and much of the heavy rainfall is and will continue to be confined to NJ and NYC.

    1. That’s an amazing satellite image. Looks as if the storm may hit deleware/far southern NJ which means much less effect on SNE than previously thought. Wow. I was way off on this one.

      1. Thanks, alisonrod. No problem. One of my favorite weather links are the satellite loops – I know there are infrared loops, etc. but sometimes I feel that I can see more w/the more old-fashioned satellite loops! 🙂

  48. 943 mb !!! 90 mph sustained winds….

    54 miles S of Nantucket…….Winds sustained at 37 knots, gusting to 45 knots….temp and dewpoint both up to 67F.

  49. I’ve been on those barrier islands near Cape May. (Avalon and other spots) There’s a lot of nice homes there, some of which won’t stand a chance.

  50. Amazing Sandy is strengthening. Those people on the Jersey shore and NYC and Long Island are going to take this on the chin.
    I would not rule out a higher surge for the coasts of CT and RI.

  51. Clearly the NWS is not changing thoughts

    1030 AM UPDATE…

    * HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
    THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE

    * FLOOD WATCHES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP
    TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN

    * COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FACING COASTS
    WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY…MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
    POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN NARRAGANSETT BAY

    AT 10 AM HURRICANE SANDY WAS APPROXIMATELY 260 MILES SOUTH OF
    BLOCK ISLAND WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 943 MB! VISIBLE
    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
    EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AROUND 13Z/9AM. VERY
    IMPRESSIVE STORM TO SAY THE LEAST.

    IT IS NOW BEGINNING ITS WESTWARD TURN WITH ESTIMATE MOTION AROUND
    330 DEGS AT 16 KT. MAX SUSTAIN WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80KT WITH
    GUSTS TO 100KT. LANDFALL EXPECTATION REMAINS ALONG THE NJ COAST
    THIS EVENING. WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTH OF SANDY AS
    ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA SQUEEZES THE PGRAD AND
    GENERATES A SECOND WIND MAX OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
    ALREADY SEEING STRONG WINDS HERE WITH MQE- G46KT/MVY- G43KT/G45KT
    AT BID JETTY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE DAY WITH
    THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 2 PM – 8 PM. A SECOND PULSE
    OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
    AROUND 8 PM AS WARM SECTOR TRIES TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA WHICH
    WILL ENHANCE MOMENTUM TRANSFER AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND
    LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODES. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH POSSIBLE TROP
    FOLD AS TROPOPAUSE RAPIDLY DESCENDS DOWNWARD. IMPRESSIVE PRES
    RISE/FALL COUPLET LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MECHANISM. STRONGEST
    WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT…BUT SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN ON EASTWARD EDGE OF THIS WIND POTENTIAL
    THIS EVENING.

    PRECIP…MAINLY JUST LOW TOP SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AS MID LEVEL DRY
    LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA PER 12Z CHH SNDG. HOWEVER ALL MODEL GUID
    INDICATES DEEP LAYER PLUME OF TROPICAL AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
    THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH CLEAR AREA
    OVER GULF OF ME AND GEORGES BANK CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THUS DRY
    AIR ALOFT ERODES WITH HEAVIER RAINS ARRIVING TAFTN.

    OVERALL…VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.– End Changed Discussion —

  52. FROM nws:

    IT IS NOW BEGINNING ITS WESTWARD TURN WITH ESTIMATE MOTION AROUND
    330 DEGS AT 16 KT. MAX SUSTAIN WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80KT WITH
    GUSTS TO 100KT. LANDFALL EXPECTATION REMAINS ALONG THE NJ COAST
    THIS EVENING. WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTH OF SANDY AS
    ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA SQUEEZES THE PGRAD AND
    GENERATES A SECOND WIND MAX OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
    ALREADY SEEING STRONG WINDS HERE WITH MQE- G46KT/MVY- G43KT/G45KT
    AT BID JETTY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE DAY WITH
    THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 2 PM – 8 PM. A SECOND PULSE
    OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
    AROUND 8 PM AS WARM SECTOR TRIES TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA WHICH
    WILL ENHANCE MOMENTUM TRANSFER AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND
    LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODES. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH POSSIBLE TROP
    FOLD AS TROPOPAUSE RAPIDLY DESCENDS DOWNWARD. IMPRESSIVE PRES
    RISE/FALL COUPLET LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MECHANISM. STRONGEST
    WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT…BUT SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN ON EASTWARD EDGE OF THIS WIND POTENTIAL
    THIS EVENING

  54. Thanks for posting that link AceMaster.
    Its strengthening as of the 11AM advisory with winds up to 90mph and a pressure at 943mb. I don’t believe there has been a tropical system with that low of a pressure this far north.

  55. State of CT just announced they are closing all State highways as of 1PM. My office is closing at 1PM here in Manchester. Neighboring town of Bolton is already 40% out of power!

    2. Mark that power outage number is going to increase and the shoreline with that surge potential particularly the western
      part of Long Island Sound could have 6-11 feet.

  56. Winds really getting gusty here….maybe close to 50 at times. Just had a tree come down somewhere in the neighborhood.

  57. Wind is ramping up here and I wouldnt be surprised if power is out soon.

    Drizzle has stopped, seeing some brightening and wow…..are the clouds moving FAST above us. Getting milder and more humid feeling too !

        1. thanks Tom…so far so good. I think it went down back in the wetlands area in back of the house. Just went to check the antennas…keeping my fingers crossed

  58. By this time, we typically would have seen over 25 patients in our urgent care. We have only seen 9 which is 9 more than I probably should have seen.

    1. Daughter had time sensitive blood work for pregnancy scheduled this morning….NWH said they are encouraging people not to go in.

      1. Good luck with your daughter. We were busy for the first hour and then it died. I think people were trying to sneak in before the arrival of the storm. We will likely close early. Winds are increasing and so is the rain in Woonsocket RI.

  59. 54 miles south of Nantucket, east wind at 40 knots, gusting to 52 knots with 26 ft waves……..

    Its on its way.

    1. Buoy 44008…..VERY !!!! interested to see this buoy over the next 3 hrs….its nearing that band that looks like it contains some squalls in it.

    2. I’m not clear on this – did it go ashore south of where expected so are we expected to have less effect?? Or are we on track?

      2. Track may be a hair to the south. Track is behaving but strength of storm is not. NJ and NYC is in big trouble.

  62. No matter where this storm hits shore, the tropical storm winds are 500 miles away from the center and hurricane gusts 250 which puts us right in that cone for gusts.

  63. Watching TWC a bit ago. They had a graphic that stated Atlantic City was
    under water. Haven’t seen any photos or video.

  66. Sandy Hook, NJ : tide is running 5.2 ft !!!! above normal, it was about 4 ft not too long ago? About the only saving grace is the tide is going out.

    The Battery : 4.35 ft above normal !!

  69. I think our thoughts and prayers should go out to NYC and vicinity. This is going to devastate parts of the area. Could be catastrophic for some. A strengthening storm of this magnitude hitting the NJ coast – my goodness, that is going to be really bad.

    We’re very lucky where we are as I still don’t see the full effects of Sandy bearing down on us in the Boston area. In fact, it’s pretty much status quo all morning, at least where I am. Yes, there will be property damage and the storm surge will cause major problems. But, the wind is generally not going to wreak widespread havoc, and the rain has been minimal thus far and from every radar loop I’ve seen looks to be remain so.

    1. this is the latest areas south of Boston

      THIS AFTERNOON…RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE…THEN RAIN. PATCHY
      FOG. STRONG WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
      30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH…INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH
      WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
      .TONIGHT…RAIN IN THE EVENING…THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
      PATCHY FOG. STRONG WINDS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER
      60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH…
      DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AFTER
      MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

  70. Just my opinion, but it might have saved many commuters a trip into work if the MBTA had made the decision to shut down (at 2:00 pm) early this morning. The official announcement could have been broadcast around 5:00 am like the schools do. This would have allowed businesses to make their own decisions as to whether to have their employees come in at all. I call it a real waste of a day to end up working maybe 2 or 3 hours since many employers have already released their workers so as not to back up the transit system.

  71. Officially without power now in Easton. Huge pine tree came down on wires across the street and fell across the power lines. Snapped the tree literally in half.

  72. In Sudbury we’re getting big gusts of wind now – prob’ly around 39 mph and maybe steady around 18 or so. Just a guess. I don’t know if we will lose elec. I thought I heard that Wayland had lost some elec.

  73. I have relatives in NC, VA, MD, NJ, and CT (coastal) and I plan to make contact in the coming days…of course I may have my own issues as well before this day is done. We will see.

    I used to have an aunt in NYC but she passed away quite a number of years ago.

  74. Just lost power in Westwood, MA. I was told the entire town is without power. This is only going to get worse folks.

    1. Boy – I didn’t expect power outages this soon -…………….and that brings me to the big question ………………WHY DO I STILL HAVE POWER 🙁

      1. Hold on to that power for as long as you can. You never know when you will lose it. Glad you still have power.

  76. Buoy 44008 (54 miles south of Nantucket)

    East wind at 43 knots, gusting to 56 knots…..wave height : 31 feet

  78. The mets are still expecting the worst later this afternoon and into most of the evening. I was out and about my neighborhood early this morning and I have seen stronger winds on clear bright days. Walking was not a problem in the least.

    This storm hasn’t even started yet and there are already reports of trees down in Boston!

  81. The wind has really picked up. WBZ in Brighton has posted a gust at 50. I believe it and if this keeps up power will be out soon enough!

  82. Looking at latest satellite loop, looks as if Sandy may spare southern NJ and strike central NJ instead. The course remains north westerly. I have not seen a sharp westward turn. This should result in conditions as forecasted last night. Even a 50-75 mile difference in landfall location could make a difference in conditions here. Something to watch.

  83. They are showing a radar image of the core of this hurricane….my goodness, that looks like a nasty core headed for NJ !

    1. last observation Boston has sustained NE 38.0 mph, and Gust at 54.1 mph, pressure down to 995mb. We are 1mph away from sustained TS wind…

    1. My daughter just told me it went from 10,000 to 30,000 out of power in MA in an hours time – and we haven’t begun.

  86. From the NWS…

    AT 10 AM HURRICANE SANDY WAS APPROXIMATELY 260 MILES SOUTH OF
    BLOCK ISLAND WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 943 MB! VISIBLE
    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
    EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AROUND 13Z/9AM. VERY
    IMPRESSIVE STORM TO SAY THE LEAST

  88. The western edge of sustained hurricane force winds appear to be entering the eastern coast line of NJ per latest satellite imagery. It’s about to get real bad down there now and for the duration.

    1. yup: Here’s matt Noyes confirmation

      Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
      Buzzards Bay MA Entrance Tower – it’s kind of like cheating at 80ft in elevation, but just gusted 81mph. Hello, Sandy.

    1. Hmmmmmmm. I’d go with central NJ if not a hair just south of that. But as you state, it is an untrained eye. If you look at the overall picture, this hurricane didn’t miss SNE by very much.

    1. Billerica its called im on east side of a hill. Billerica one giant hill. and currently visibilities are down less than a mile with heivy rain and winds are around 32 and just recorded a gust of 50!!Also another piece of the large willow tree in the marsh fell.

  93. Lights have flickered a couple of times here in Hingham in the past 15 minutes. Winds really starting to pick up here. I would estimate sustained winds of 35-40 with gusts well over 50.

  94. We just lost one of our outer storm windows. We live in an old brownstone in the south end of Boston. Wind got behind it and whipped it right off!!!

  95. @BostonDotCom: The #outage numbers as we approach 2 p.m.: #NStar 30,266; Natl Grid 22,470, Unitil 3,930. #BOSandy

  96. Winds in Quincy have been pretty strong all morning. I would guess about 20-30mph sustained with higher gusts. Still have power so far. Stay safe everyone!

  99. 2PM Observations:

    Boston: Wind: from the Northeast at 38.0 gusting to 54.1 MPH
    Blue Hill: Wind: from the Northeast at 28.8 gusting to 50.6 MPH
    Martha’s Vineyeard: Wind: from the East at 40.3 gusting to 58.7 MPH
    Nantucket: Wind: from the East at 35.7 gusting to 59.8 MPH

  100. 2pm wind reports in MPH, Sustained then Max Gust

    Boston 38,54
    ORH 25,48
    CHH 35,47
    ACK 33,39
    CEF 28,39

    Don’t see any change in landfall of south to south central Jersey. Might lower rainfall amounts slightly in SNE.

  102. Hey all! Since I had no power decided to drive to Narragansett ri, just got back in my car at Scarborough beach. Winds are incredible down here! Ocean is angry! Will post pics on Facebook!

    1. LOL I had double check mine too for the same reason. For some reason you can always go to the NY/NJ conditions page for the Boston #’s…they post them there quicker.

  106. We just had gust that had to have been well over 60 here. As I watch the last Greenbush commuter train for the day go past our location.

  108. Getting sheets of rain and gusts into the mid 40’s in Wilmington, near the Tewksbury border. Got nasty real fast.

  109. my weather station should be able to survive this. litterally just measured a gust of up to 62mph comming from the east!! visibilities less than a mile. winds are at about 35 its what i get for living right on a marsh that get the east winds.

  110. Interesting from the NWS:

    AS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL…SPC CONTINUES A 2% RISK ACROSS OUR
    AREA. RISK IS VERY LOW GIVEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
    NEUTRAL…NOT SUPPORTIVE OF TORS. NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO
    MONITOR THE RADAR AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES AS SHEAR WILL
    REMAIN EXTREMELY STRONG.

    1. Also this:

      DESPITE THIS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
      MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 21Z WITH 925 MB WINDS UP TO 85 KT!
      THUS STRONGEST WINDS STILL TO COME! 12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
      SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH MAX MOMENTUM WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 2 PM –
      7 PM.

    2. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
      Westerly Rhode Island gusted to 84…then 86 mph. Highest of the entire East Coast thus far.

  112. AT 2 PM HURRICANE SANDY WAS APPROXIMATELY 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
    ATLANTIC CITY NJ…MOVING 305 DEGS/NW AT 25 KT AND WITH A MINIMUM
    CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 940 MB! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 MPH.
    VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOTS OF DEEP
    CONVECTION IN AND NEAR THE CENTER…LIKELY AN INDICATION OF
    ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. OKX AND PHI RADARS EVEN DETECTING A
    BIT OF AN EYE STRUCTURE. ALSO 34 FT SEAS AT BUOY 44008 /ABOUT 54
    NM SOUTH OF NANTUCKET/! VERY IMPRESSIVE STORM TO SAY THE LEAST.

  113. Wow, the storm just took off! Center about to move on shore near cape may NJ in next hour. Winds still at 90 and getting mixed down to the surface in torrential rain bands along the west side of the eye wall. Atlantic city has got to be war zone right now!

      1. I am, thanks Vicki. Power has flickered three times but so far so good (or maybe not so good from your perspective!)

  114. Just heard a crane on a 55 story building in manhattan has collapsed.

    Still have power at my house but 70,000 without power in Ct now.

  115. 940 mb…wow !!

    Her come some convective type showers up from the southeast. Those might be capable of some really strong gusts. Can’t believe we still have power 🙂

  116. Took a ride to Plymouth Harbor and there were actually a couple of guys wind surfing. People are crazy!!! Thankful to still have power but the lights are starting to flicker so I have a feeling that it won’t be long now.

  117. I think the worst of the storm will be done earlier than I predicted in Boston metro. 7pm or so and then winds will gradually decrease after that. Sustained winds won’t get too much stronger from now until then, but max gusts will increase to 60 to maybe 70 in sudden bursts that mix down in the Boston area. There won’t be a lot of those gusts, but I am quite confident there will a be a few.

  118. Oh my….

    Storm surge for Sandy Hook, NJ currently reading +7.04 ft !!!!!

    The Battery, NY : +6.25 ft

    Down the end of our street, in what is supposed to be a thick salt marsh, that you occasionally see a bit of water in…….it is a lake with a chop on it. Unreal !!

  119. If Sandy misses NJ, makes landfall in DE, this would be the first time ever that a hurricane makes landfall in that state… Wow!

  121. 4pm Sustained and Gust

    Boston 45, 60
    Chatham 28, 52
    Chicopee 24, 43
    Nantucket 35, 52
    Worcester 37, 54
    Central Park NYC 27, 47
    Atlantic City 38, 51

  122. Hi all! Quick update: I am back home. We still have power. Gusts have topped 50 MPH in Woburn and 56 MPH in Bedford. The forecast is verifying nicely, but more importantly, I hope everybody took precautions and is safe.

    I was in Medford around 3:30PM and saw several trees down and one metal road sign snapped off at the base.

    I’m going back to read all comments now and it will take a while…

    Please send your obs and thoughts!

    Stay safe!

      1. A little windier than I thought but still not a huge impact I didn’t think here anyway, I’m sure along the coast is where most of the action is 🙂

  125. It looks like we are going to get out if this with significantly fewer outages than the two storms last year. These winds are similar to Irene if not greater but the lack of leaves on the trees is limiting the damage

  127. Ok, I have an idea,

    The fact that NHC didn’t post hurricane warnings for at least NJ sounds like bureaucracy and “eggheads” (no offense) gone amok. My God, it’s borderline immoral. It might not have changed how people prepared in the end because of the intensity of media coverage, but what about next time?

    So, here’s my proposal….

    Why not put together a category system, names too if you like, based on pressure ranges and other mitigating factors? That would put winter storms in play too. You could even add in things like temperature, moon cycle affect, etc… in order to bump up or down on the new scale and warning system.

  128. JUST GOT HOME, ALTHOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME. NEED TO BE BACK IN TONIGHT AT 11PM AND WORK A 16HR SHIFT. IT WAS VERY WINDY WHEN I LEFT BOSTON AT 3PM. PEMBROKE SEEMS TO BE DOING WELL SO FAR. MY POOL AREA TOOK A BEATING.

  130. You all know that I am not a hype person and I don’t exaggerate. This is the worst storm I have seen in quite a while, wind-wise. Power flickering but still hanging on here 12 miles NW of Boston.

    1. It must be my age. Not really impressed. This storm pales in comparison to the Blizzard of 78, in Our area anyway.

    2. I was on my honeymoon for Irene – actually, we got trapped in Puerto Vallarta (tough luck, I know!), so this is my very first “hurricane” or whatever you want to call it.

      Hell of a storm. I’ve been out a few times with the dogs and this past time, my older guy almost got blown away!

      So regardless of the headlines, it was historic for me!

    3. Honest to god I thought Irene was worse here, I compared my video from Irene and today and we all thought Irene was a little more

  132. I’m actually not all that surprised I didn’t lose power so far here in Holden. No leaves, plus the ice storm and last October snowstorm has thinned out some of the weaker trees…..my theory.

    1. That is awesome OS!

      In case you missed my message a couple days ago, I’m very glad you are back here and contributing. You’d be a nominee for contributor of the year if there was such an award. 😉

    1. A good,portion of Framingham is out. We lost power for a minute and its flickered but my guess is we will not lose it. Wind seems to be coming more in waves now than sustained.

  136. I thought the sustained winds with this were stronger than Irene but Irene had a squall that came through that was worse than any gust we had today for my area and blew power out, today’s storm was slightly more than I thought but in the end it ranks behind Gloria and Irene but only slightly less than Irene, gust here have come down to the high 30’s low 40’s, have a good day everyone and power never lost 🙂

    1. We talked about the Irene Squall at the weather conference. Some places S and SW of Boston got nailed with that but it weakened when it moved north. These winds are much stronger here NW of Boston than they were with Irene. Most of my Irene gusts were 40-45 MPH. I’m getting regular gusts 50-55 MPH with 2 of them to 60 MPH today.

      1. And thank you tk for clearing that up bc it is different for everyone, this was worse in your locale but Irene was way worse during that squall during any part we got here, I had wind gust here in the mid 50’s during peak, to b exact at 4:07 I had a 56mph wind gust and Irene I had multiple wind gust at 59,61,64,67mph during that squall, thanks again tk

  140. 5PM Obs peak wind gusts down from 4PM.
    Virtually all stations I checked. I think only Blue Hill was
    about the same due to elevation.

    Boston: Wind: from the East at 38.0 gusting to 48.3 MPH.

    I believe that the 4PM had a peak gust to near 60MPH, so this
    represents a significant drop off.

  144. Wind gusts have picked up tremendously in northern CT. Could be that next wind band that came ashore that Matt Noyes was talking about. I would expect it is lifting north.

    200,000 out of power in CT now. We are losing 25,000 every 20 minutes!

  145. Mt Washington wind now East at 100mph sustained with a peak gust of 130 recorded! I can only imagine what they would have recorded if this storm made landfall further north.

  147. Sherborn 96% w/o power per NSTAR. Sustained winds were a short window, maybe 4 to 5 hours from 1130AM-430PM, enough to snap trees and bring down power. I think we got off easy compared to others. Hope everyone is safe out there.

  148. Hmmmm

    Boston 6PM obs, wind is up again:

    Wind: from the East at 39.1 gusting to 59.8 MPH

    Blue Hill is up also:

    Wind: from the East at 43.7 gusting to 71.3 MPH

    I am just not hearing the wind anywhere near as much here in JP

  152. JUST WENT UP TO GET SOME REST BEFORE HEADING BACK IN. THE ROOM LIT UP TWICE WITH FLASHES. NO POWER. WENT OUT TOO TAKE A LOOK AND THE FLASH HAPPENED AGAIN. IT WAS NOT LIGHTNING. MY NEIGHBOR SAID HE SAW BLUE AND RED IN IT. SO MUCH FOR MY NAP.

    1. Retweeted by Boston.com…

      MT @mkarolian: Is anyone seeing flashes in #EastBoston? It does not look like lighting, too faint and mostly in groups of 3. @BostonDotCom

      1. The transformer can’t handle the surges so the electricity arcs over and will blow the transformer. Very basic explanation. Rather awesome and scary to see. We saw it several times during Halloween storm.

  154. 7Pm Obs

    Boston down again:

    Wind: from the East at 36.8 gusting to 49.5 MPH

    Nantucket: Wind: from the East at 27.6 gusting to 42.6 MPH

    That would lead me to believe that not much additional wind with the convection??

  155. Does anyone have an idea when the winds will shift direction. We have trees on two sides of the house and are trying to decide which to sleep on

      1. Back on…out for about two hours. Went it went out we had some of the strongest winds of the day. Pouring here right now with winds still whipping around.

  157. Current storm surge…

    The Battery, NY : + 7.25 ft. Sandy Hook, NJ : + 7.68 ft. Bridgeport, CT : +9.31 ft wow !!!!! Providence, RI : +6.04 ft. Fall River, MA : +5.37 ft. Nearing high tide in Naragansett and Buzzards Bay in the next hour or two. Whats going in near NYC and in Long Island must be awful.

    Heavy rain accompanied by high gusts arriving in Marshfield.

    1. I should clarify the high gusts as probably in the 30s or so, but the big rain drops pelting against the window sounds loud. Heaviest rain now of the event.

  159. Seeing pictures out of NY/NJ. Insane. Serious storm. Despite damage and wind gusts that ARE right in the forecast range up in SNE, with the exception of areas that are getting some serious coastal flooding, we’re getting off easier than areas south of here. That said, the storm is still behaving as expected.

    Blog update out shortly…

    2. Thanks TK !

      7pm obs from NY area….

      Kennedy Int’l : East wind at 49, gusting to 72
      Islip, Long Island : East wind at 45, gusting to 77

      1. Thanks to all of you! My main concern is that people got the message and did what was necessary to stay safe. I realize this is more for some than others (coast vs inland for example). We all have to adjust and react according to our locations, conditions, etc. … This is why some people say “storm? what storm?” while others are watching their back deck float out to sea. It’s the nature of it. I just hope everybody continues to stay safe. The region will recover nicely when this is done.

  162. Home safe after a fun day in Narragansett. Still no power so using my phone (thank god for unlimited data right?) The winds were incredible down there. Major difference between there and inland. I was there from 2-5pm, about the worst of the winds but at low tide and there was still some flooding. The waves coming in were massive. I could turn my back to the wind and lean back and it would keep me upright. I kept thinking that it was nothing compared to what was going on in NJ.

    1. The power of the ocean gives you goosebumps doesn’t it? Glad you got to experience it firsthand and especially that you are home safe

      1. Yes it does Vicki, I’ve always wanted to do that, safely of course ;). I gotta admit, I was nervous at one point. Got a nice fire going tonight, mostly for light, lol. Absolutely pouring out, almost tropical, but very little wind

  163. We never lost any power, so far. But our lights have been flickering a lot, so I wanted to shut down my computer.

    I just read all the posts and they are great. I love your links, Old Salty! Great images! I went outside for a few mins., around 4:00 or so for a few minutes – it was awesome. It was relatively mild (still is) and it would be calm and then a big gust of wind. I don’t know what kind of damage is around – around our home, lots of leaves, small branches, debris and in Sudbury wires down and some fire calls. Looks like some heavy rain maybe w/thunder moving in. My thoughts and prayers are for those along the coast.

    Is it true, that there is a chance for severe weather tomorrow? TWC was saying there was a low chance of tornadoes. That “feeder band” is supposedly bringing up mild air into tomorrow, too. Sorry for the long blog.

    1. The tornado risk is very low even for tomorrow. More likely we’d have isolated bursts of convective wind in heavier showers.. a more scattered version of what’s going on tonight.

  165. Back to very heavy rain here a little over an inch so far. Very mild 64 degrees with 60 degree dewpoint.

      1. You must live under a force field, Charlie. I just had gusts of 45, 55, and 50 in the past 10 minutes and the convection is barely overhead here.

  166. Tremendous shoreline flooding in Ct and many of the towns in the SE part of the state are 100% in the dark. Outages now approaching a half million statewide. Just heard the power company in Bridgeport, united illuminating had to shut down a substation due to flooding putting another 75,000 in the dark.

    Just saw JFk had a wind gust to 80! Highest gust I saw in southern New England was westerly, RI at 86 mph.

  167. Landfall was shortly before 8pm about 5mi south of Atlantic City. Pressure is rising throughout SNE now and strongest sustained winds and gusts are starting to decline.

    Like I wrote yesterday all weather is local and the long term effects here in SNE will not be significant, but the storm did behave about as thought. Props to the ECMWF! To the south this storm did serious damage and the aftermath will be ugly in Jersey, Delaware and Maryland. I was a little low on the max wind gusts but real close on sustained winds. One thing that did surprise me was how much speed the storm picked up this afternoon while it was still over the ocean. It got near 30 mph for forward motion early this evening.

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