Moving Forward

235 Comments

9:16PM

Moving forward from Sandy will be much easier in much of southern New England (with some exceptions on the South Coast) than for our neighbors in NY & NJ. I wish them the best.

Not going to spend any time reviewing. You’ve all seen the news, read the stories, seen the pictures, and experienced whatever you did. It indeed was a very historic storm, and will go down in history alongside the other big ones:  Blizzard of 1888. Blizzard of 1978. All the hurricanes that have impacted the region. Superstorm 1993. The Perfect Storm And others…

The low pressure area that was Sandy will spin down and slowly drift northward across NY Wednesday and down the St. Lawrence River Valley late in the week. It will take until the weekend for the upper low to completely clear the area, so even though wet weather will leave, some clouds will linger at least through Friday and possibly into the start of the weekend. The mild tropical air we had during Tuesday will be replaced gradually with cooler and drier air as the week goes on.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers through early afternoon. Highs 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING (trick or treat): Variably cloudy. Temperature cooling into the 50s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 51-56. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 54.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 51.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain or snow showers at night. Low 31. High 47.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Low 34. High 48.

235 thoughts on “Moving Forward”

  2. Thanks TK.
    I see the s word in the forecast. I hope to see that s word a lot in the next few months!

  3. Thanks TK for the update. Will there be any more heavy showers tonight?

    I also hope that any showers end very, very early next Tuesday, Election Day so voters won’t have any excuses not to vote! 🙂

  4. I posted the following on the previous blog after TK’s announcement of this updated blog so I will repeat this bit of wx history of NYC!

    I saw on the TV news that the last time the NYSE was closed for two days in a row was during the Great Bizzard of 1888 and the last time that NYC was flooded out was after Hurricane Donna in 1960.

    1960…the year I was born. 🙂

    Also, if I am not mistaken Donna was the last hurricane to strike the east coast for quite some time…more than a decade. IIRC Hurricane Belle 1976??

    1. Belle was August 9 1976 and fell apart as it got to the area. There was a very long drought between Donna & Belle.

      1. Yes, Belle did fall apart. Also if my memory is correct, it did get quite windy briefly but causing no damage whatsoever. I remember my next door neigbor taping his windows.

        1. Everybody had windows taped with big X’s of masking tape…

          I still remember the headline in the local paper that serves several towns around here after the storm: “Reading Was Ready But Belle Bombed”

    2. Crazy stuff Philip! I work in the financial industry and the last two days has been crazy for us, with the markets closed. Tomorrow is the last day of the month and with the markets having been closed for two days, it is sure to be crazy with everyone trying to catch up. I am hoping to be home in time to take my daughter out for Halloween :).

  6. I don’t know if anyone here posted this already, but Hurricane Sandy came on the same date (10/29) as the Halloween snowstorm last year.

  8. Sandy has really turned the weather upside down. Not to often you see Montreal at 61 degrees while it is snowing and 38 at Lexington, ky. The storm has moved so far west that it is sitting over Cleveland now and generated gale warnings, 15-20 ft seas, and lake shore flood warnings on Lake Michigan today. Truly incredible storm.

    1. I was looking at her on the radar last night and in awe of her size and the effect she’s still having. Thanks for that information. Simply incredible

  9. Sherborn schools closed again tomorrow, a few streets are still inaccessible and trees/wires are all over the place. Whoever mentioned burying electrical utilities over the weekend, you have my vote.

  10. Tough weather last night for many when cell moved through here. I think Wareham took a bit of a hit.

  11. Good morning. Thank you TK. Still no power here and didn’t hear any storms go thru. The sky is layers if pink and blue and everything looks so calm.

    1. I KNOW THE FEELING. MISSED THE STORM LAST NIGHT, I WENT TO BED AT 7:30. SO NICE TO BE OFF NOW, GOOD TIMING.

  13. Thanks, TK. We lost power around 5:00 yesterday and didn’t regain power ’til around 8:00. In the middle of the night, I don’t know what time, the lights flickered. We had some heavy rain and loud thunder during those storms last night. I guess not as bad in Sudbury (unless more people lost power again) as it was to the east of us.

    Vicki – I hope you get the power back on soon.

  14. Missed the big storm last night as the wife and I attended a concert. My Son described it as quite a storm.

    Looks like things will be quieting down for awhile.

    I wonder what this Winter will bring?

  16. From WeatherBoy: Long range forecast guidance is suggesting that a new coastal storm may form off the Mid Atlantic / New England coast in about 6-7 days. As this threat becomes more real as time goes on, we’ll continue to post updates on it. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, coastlines are much more vulnerable to storm damage than ever before and even a weak coastal storm can wreck havoc

    1. From the models I have examined, at this early stage, it looks like there would
      NOT be enough cold air in place to support any snow in our area. Even if there
      were, there would certainly be boundary layer issues anywhere near the
      coast.

      1. OS, I agree but it looks like the cold air will not be that far away. Both the 0z Euro and GFS have trended stronger with this coastal storm and track it closer to the coast than yesterday’s runs. They are actually in very close agreement given that we are one week out. Both deliver what could be a decent snow event for Maine, though it would be rain in eastern MA. Something to keep our eyes on…

        1. Whatever we get its apparent the pattern will stay pretty active through at least early Nov. Its just a matter of time as we natually get colder we will start to see these storms bring snow 8)

          1. True, however, for the coastal areas, boundary layer issues abound as Sea Surface Temperatures remain quite high, even higher than last year at this time. Currently running about 55-56F.

            1. I agree, OS. Definitely not a snow event, especially for coastal areas – just concerned for any stronger than average Noreaster (rain or otherwise) coming up the coast at this point.

      2. OLD SALTY. WERE HAVING A POLL ON SNOW TOTALS I THINK DUE BY 11/15. CHECK WITH VICKI. MY CALL IS AN OLDFASHION WINTER. THIS WILL BE ONE TO REMEMBER.

  18. OUTSTANDING ARTICLE ON THE BOSTON CHANNEL.COM. DOES ANYBODY KNOW HOW TO PASTE THAT HERE. IT BASICALLY IS SAYING THAT THESE BIG STORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON THAN LIKE A STORM OF THE CENTRY, COMING LIKE EVERY 20YRS OR LESS. DUE TO THE FACT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE, LIKE THE MELTING ICE. GOOD READING.

    3. Just read that article on CNN as well. Makes you wonder but I am still not convinced this is all the result of a global warming pattern.

      1. Well something has caused the Artic Sea Ice to melt more than
        it has since we have been monitoring such things.

        Normal Climate Cycle? Sure, but I can’t imagine that
        Man has not ADDED to that. We’ve been spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial age.

        1. I agree what we have been adding to the atmosphere cannot be good but there are also normal warming and cooling cycles of the Earth that occur over long periods of time. The period we have monitoring such things is just a blip in the history of our planet. It’s always the tendency when you have a few extreme weather events occur over a short period of time to blame it on overall climate change, but there is no way to know for sure.

    1. DON’T FORGET YOUR WINTER CALL HERE DUE SOON. I WANT TO REALLY HEAR YOURS. YOU NAIL THINGS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.

  20. Vicki,

    Snow predictions due by Nov. 15th?

    Where’s the prediction for? Logan? Worcester Airport? Both?

      1. Might be a good idea to wait till I have power to give any tho. No computer to keep track so may miss them

  21. 1 thing I do believe this winter will have is Boston may only come in around 20 inches but Worcester will get 60 or 70 inches 🙂

  22. As you start to think about your winter forecasts, one tidbit of info to either digest or ignore (your choice) is that WeatherBell (who includes one of the best long range forecasters in the business) has come up with analogs based on the expected status of each index related to climate prediction and it points to a colder than normal, drier than normal winter with near normal snowfall. About 10 analog years with the conditions expected all came in with between 33 and 55 inches of snow at Boston (average 44). The indices scream normal this season.

      1. Hehe! I’ve seen this guy bust his forecast only 3 times in 15 years. Last year was one of them, but I busted mine too. Early on I am ready to go right back to the same mode of thinking he has.

        Coastal, I’m going to write to you on FB. I have a question. Check your inbox when you have a chance please. 🙂

  25. I SEE SOME HIGH SNOW NUMBER HERE. PEOPLE THOUGHT I WAS NUTS WITH MY 100 INCHES. BRACE YOURSELF FOLKS. VERY COLD AND SNOWY GUYS. I’LL BET THE HOUSE.

  26. I hope to see at least a typical Vermont winter this year. We may see some snow showers up here Friday night and into Saturday.

  27. No ones gonna like me when my winter forecast, earlier this fall I was thinking closer to 8-12 inches but have raised my total snowfall to around 20 inches, when I give my totals I will explain why, have a great day

  28. NWS currently has “small” potential for mixed precip mainly for the eastern half of SNE sometime during the Monday-Wednesday timeframe.

    1. I thinks there’s a chance but a very small chance especially for the eastern third of the state, up a few thousand feet it shows it way to warm I think 🙂

  29. Power back. Crew was from Kansas and Missouri. Very nice to talk to. A bunch of us have firepits going since we didn’t think we were getting power.

      1. Tx all. I’m still out front by the fire pit. I think this could be a new neighborhood tradition. 😀

  31. I will wait until around the 10th but for now i think slightly below for boston. but near normal central and western mass. I have a feeling that what ever happens next monday or tuesday will represent what many of the storms will do this winter. give eastern mass rain or a mix then mix or snow inland

  32. I am glad that you got your power back Vicki. Perhaps the power companies have finally learned their lesson. Those companies should not rest on their laurels and continue to improve repairs even more for the next storm. I was listening to Dan Rea on WBZ radio last night and Marcy Reed of N-Star was taking calls. There were still a lot of disgruntled customers. I don’t blame them.

    1. My husband works for a company who serves the utilities. 98% of the electric utilities in US are clients and a good portion outside of US. There is a lot more that goes into restoring power than the avg person sees. Also remember big buisiness isn’t hiring. That keeps the money at the top.

      1. I turned down an opportunity this summer to work for a major utility company. The hours we nuts but it was going to be well worth it for hire pay and a pension so I thought. There pay was not competitive and the pension is not offered to new employees. So it just did not make sense to work those crazy hours. They have a big turn over there now because of it. They just can’t keep there good employees because they are leaving for more money and a normal life.

        1. It’s bottom line, coastal. iMHO why our country is innthe mess we are in :). Its the Same for all our big companies. I worked for same co mac does until I was laid off after 32 years. The company has written the majority of standards for ASTM. Macs been testing rush oil samples all week for PCB. If a transformer goes. Its oil needs testing. Just one of the things that holds up fixing. In all,honesty the companies have been on target for each storm.

  34. I don’t see many above ave temp days in our future. Looks like at or below for at least the next 7 days. What’s strange to me is the low temps have been well above ave even on days the high temps are at the ave.

  35. The troll came knockin’ on the blog for Halloween but he got no treat, only tricked. 😉

    Happy Halloween everyone!

      1. Speaking of egging, a couple of teen punks wearing masks egged the MBTA bus I was on today. I know it is a Halloween traditon I guess, but it makes no sense to me whatsoever. >:-(

        1. the problem about halloween is that you have to think about your surroundings. If you are in a city and you though toilet paper over a car or a tree , or yard forking ( spelling out work or something ) .( Not to spell out bad words or racial slurrs).its called vandalism. if you are out by my grandparents in central mass its called a fun prank and everyone laughts about it. Its why i love my grandparents neibor hood

  36. Thanks John, that was a good article Old Salty posted. I had no idea that NYC has 500 miles of coastline. I also had no idea that the city was so prone to flooding. I was somewhat puzzled why Mayor Bloomberg evacuated the city, but it obviously was the right call.

    1. THAT CITY SURE GOES THROUGH A LOT. SO ABOUT THAT ARTICLE. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT, LOOK AT THE LATEST EARTHQUAKES, THE TORNADO A YEAR AGO, HOW THE LAST FEW SUMMERS WERE TRACKING A NEAR HURRICANE, A MEASURABLE SNOW STORM IN OCTOBER. THAT’S PLENTY RIGHT THERE TO MAKE YOU WONDER. I AM SO SORRY ABOUT THESE STUPID CAPS, I CANT SEEM TO FIGURE IT OUT.

      1. The city goes through alot because of its location. The proximity to the water, mountains to the west, and a plethora of convergence zones because of the multiple coasts and colliding sea breeze fronts make it a mini laboratory for rotating thunderstorms and other severe weather, the Atlantic Ocean carries many a tropical storm and hurricane by the region and they are bound to take a few now and then, the snow would be because they are in the Northeast and it snows very early and very late sometimes when the conditions come together, and the earthquake is easily explained by the multiple fault lines that fracture the earth’s crust in this part of the continent.

  37. Regarding the article. It’s nicely written, but they got it wrong.

    Storms are not any bigger now than any other time in history.

    1) We have people, cameras, and sensors everywhere. We see EVERYTHING that was easily missed as recently as 20 years ago, and especially 40+ years ago.

    2) Storms of greater magnitude than Sandy have occurred very often, and a few of them have even taken a similar path. Here’s the difference: Look at the coastal structural build-up now compared to then. That will quickly answer the question about the level of destruction.

    The WEATHER isn’t changing, WE are.

    1. I THINK THE FREQUENCY OF THESE STORM’S IS THE THING. LIKE HE SAID THE STORM OF THE CENTURY IS NOW LIKE EVERY 20YRS OR LESS. JUST TAKE HALLOWEEN FOR EXAMPLE, TWO IN A ROW AND TWO DIFFERENT BIG STORMS.

      1. Eh… One can make a case for it. But again I think it’s just a matter of population density. And ‘storm of the century’ is just something that every big storm seems to get labeled. Going back in history (1600s, 1700s, 1800s) there are reliable accounts of incredible storms in this and other parts of the country. The impact may not have been so great because the population has increased 50-fold, or more. More people = more impact.

        I’m not really sure last year’s early storm counts as something really out-of-this-world big. The snow amounts in the October 4 1987 storm in western New England were insane, and that was almost in September (missed by 4 days). There are other examples, but I guess we can settle at just not seeing this the same way. 🙂

            1. I may be a senior meteorologist and have some scientific backing for what I believe, but there is enough unknown to really make these views equally likely when it comes down to it.

              I will check with the tech’s. They are currently buried in a scary movie marathon while I listen to Oingo Boingo’s Dark At The End Of The Tunnel, Danny Elfman’s Music For A Darkened Theater, and the soundtrack to The Nightmare Before Christmas. 🙂

            2. John, the up arrow under the a. If there is a line under the arrow, it’s in permanent caps. If you press it until its just the arrow with no line, it should be normal. I have an EVO.

        2. Tk did you see Jim Cantore last night on channel 7 freaking out about how global warming could be the possible cause for Sandy. He said that we can’t blame every storm or Sandy on global warming but we know that the earth has been warming and we didn’t have to look about 300yrs but more like 30yrs and see that climate change is happening. He we can expect more big storms and more damage frequently. I thought it was a little irresponsible for him to start saying these things..

          Don’t get me wrong I believe our climate is changing due to natural cycles and human activity influencing our environment. But just thought it was out of place for him to start talking about climate change in the middle of this disaster. Anyone else have any thoughts?

          1. I like Cantore but if I were him I’d have held back on the editorializing. Either way, I respect his opinion.

            1. It’s not a question if global warming is happening, it’s a question of how much man made is accounted for it and how much is cycles,

          2. TJ I have a firm belief that some may be cyclical but some – perhaps more – is manmade. I didn’t see mr cantore but going by what you said I agree it is totally inappropriate

  39. Vicki, are you the one collecting snow total forecasts for the upcoming winter?? If so, could you list them in ascending/descending order. Not sure I am in there.

      1. Now that November will soon be upon us, it is time for us (myself included) to start coming up with some serious snowfall amounts. 🙂

  40. Does anyone here know if there any sections of Boston that still do trick-or-treat? Where I live in Dorchester on Halloween the streets are deserted on Halloween night. There are one or two homes with outdoor scary decor, but I suspect that they hold private parties by invite only maybe for their kids friends and/or close family.

    Back in the 1960’s through the 1980’s and early 90’s there were many kids in costumes (myself included) roaming the neighborhood every year trick-or-treating. 🙂

    Is trick-or-treating more of a suburban and rural event for kids today?

    2. Yes Phillip!! I am off Bourne street in JP and I get a ton of kids. Parents bring them in from mattapan/Dorchester!! It is simply awesome how the street does it.

  41. My guess for the winter Boston 40-50″ Worcester 70-80″. If i have to put exact # 50.for Boston 80 for Worcester.

  42. Is the Bilzzard of 78 the all time single event high snow total for Boston? I thought one of the big storms in the mid 1990’s finally eclipsed that? The whole time I was growing up every snow event seemed to be compared to 1978. Don’t seem to hear that as much anymore……

    1. Another candidate may be the Feb. 1969 snowstorm, I think, where…it didnt necessarily snow a lot on one given day, but I think it snowed for 3 or 4 days straight and when totaled, it added up to a very high amount.

  44. Took a quick peek at both the GFS and EURO and if I am correctly reading them, they once again differ on the path of an east coast storm about a week out.

    I think the GFS is out to sea and the EURO is not too far off the Massachusetts coastline with a 987 mb low………..the GFS signals a very cold shot of air mid month.

    Happy November all !

  45. My comment on some recent studies about storms.

    There are references above to recent news articles which suggest our planet may experience stronger, more frequent storms and even larger storm surges as the century clicks away. What is being referenced here, I believe, is a study released at the National Academy of Sciences, a study from the University of Copenhagen and I think a similar study which was authored around mid 2011.

    As a onetime (non-weather) researcher, I would say don’t jump on the bandwagon. These macro studies with macro conclusions are usually very challengeable. Regardless of the research skills of the authors, it’s difficult if not nearly impossible to think of let alone accurately include all of the relevant variables. A single massive volcano eruption could change the course of our weather for a long time to come.

    Here is another example — there have been a number of studies suggesting that by the time we reach the quarter century mark, gas prices will be less than $1 per gallon. True or not true? The logic from known variables may be OK, but are the studies all inclusive of what may occur between now and 2025?

    1. I respect ur opinion, I’ve been on the bandwagon that man made global warming is happening, 100% sure, it’s just how much us man made, u would think even if man made is contributing to global warming just 5% they would be doing something about it, instead if it raises tax’s people say forget about it, that why 🙂

  46. ‘morning all.

    Alright Vicki,

    Snowfall Prediction:

    Worcester Airport: 77″ (about 15% above average)
    Boston: 46″ (about 5% above average)

  47. These are totals so far – I’m just keeping track of Logan and it is to tenths of an inch. Please let me know if I missed you or you want to add. As always, if I don’t acknowledge I’ve seen your guess, it means I did not see it. Thank you!

    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Joshua 27.0
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.7
    Vicki 18.3

    2. Vicki, put me down for 62″. I believe Logan will get two storms that drop 14″ to 16″ each. I also would not rule out a blizzard that nails Boston South with 36″.

  48. I was watching the national news last night and I could not believe the
    destruction inflicted by “Sandy”. The Breezy Point section of NYC was just
    beyond description. The Jersey Shore just blew me away.

    Were we ever LUCKY!!!!

  49. re: Next Week’s event for about 11/8

    It seems to be getting stronger with each run and colder as well.

    The 0Z Euro has much wrap around SNOW, even for coastal areas.

    This should be interesting model watching.

    1. I went to take a look at that after you mentioned it. It throws up t0 3″ south of Boston and more north and west. If it holds it will be fun to track.

      1. Yes.

        I tried to get a working link for the Wundermap
        snow map at 168 hours. I copied the link to another
        browser window and kept getting the display at 12 hours!
        The link clearly shows 168, but yields 12!

        I used to be able to get that. If I get a chance later, I’ll play around with it some.

        Now we’ll see what the 12Z run shows. The Euro sure was
        supreme in forecasting Sandy.

    1. Well,

      If one takes this and selects ECMWF as the model and snow
      as the type and advance it to hour 168, they WILL see it.

  53. Let’s try this

    ?lat=42.35840&lon=-71.05980&zoom=4&type=terrain&units=english&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=168&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&pep=0&extremes=0&nycevac=0&hurrevac=0&livesurge=0&dir=0&hur=0

    1. Didn’t know we were keeping track of that ….. hold those thoughts as I am playing catch up both around the house and even more at work since I couldn’t work yesterday.

  59. Hi Vicki….can you put me down for 36.2″ at Logan for the upcoming winter. Thanks for being our record keeper!!!

    1. Ya know OS, i was just thinking that before i logged on to see the comments. I was thinking to myself, this will probably end up an inside runner. Cant wait for the 12Z runs!

  61. remember how often the Euro kicked around GFS last year? or do I have a bad memory.

    And for Sandy too, it way in advance.

    Euro is King Still.

    Just wanted to put that out there as we head into winter and before the GFS starts “acting up”

    1. Considering we didnt have much to track last year, there werent too many opportunities for the GFS to stink. I will say this though, more often than not, the GFS will show something and get us all excited and the EURO will show a miss. We watch and the GFS slowly moves toward the EURO and we’re all dissapointed. I have a hard time remembering when the EURO showed something and it ended up being a miss…

  63. Pretty bullish from the HPC. A little aggressive to me at this point.

    NOR’EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
    ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY…

    GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCE
    =====================================
    A DEEP CYCLONE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL HELP
    AMPLIFY A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND MAINTAIN A
    NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
    APPALACHIANS. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEA…AND IN
    GENERAL…EVEN MUCH OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS EXPECTED NEXT
    WEEK. HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE PRESSURES/FRONTS AND 500 MB PROGS
    WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND
    GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
    BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES
    THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY AND
    UTILIZED GUIDANCE THAT OFFERED MAX SOLUTION CLUSTERING.

    WEATHER IMPACTS
    ===============
    AS A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA…PACIFIC
    MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALLOWS FOR SKIRMISHES OF
    RAINS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
    BATCHES OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ARE MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO STREAK
    THROUGH THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY DIGS IN BEHIND THE
    NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
    SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIGHT TO MODERATE
    PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

    GUIDANCE STILL HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BUT COMMONLY AGREE
    THAT DEEPER LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR MON-THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE
    OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST.
    THIS WOULD BRING BEST ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC
    TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
    HEAVIER SNOWS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS
    THE LOW WRAPS INLAND. INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
    (AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF A MORE WESTERLY
    TRACK VERIFIES) TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING
    AND BEACH EROSION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
    EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN HURRICANE SANDY AND PRODUCE
    IMPACTS MUCH LESS EXTREME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE REGION MOST
    STRONGLY IMPACTED BY SANDY.

    1. Not only bullish, but somewhat alarmist as well.

      This far out, I think all they should have stated was that there
      was the “potential” for East Coast storm development and leave it at
      that.

      Is this the onset of the typical Winter HYPE?????

      1. My guess is they wouldnt be as bullish if there was significant model disagreement, but it seems from the write-up most models somewhat agree this far out, which we all know is pretty rare

      2. Because of the NWS website issues, I could only see the discussion from Albany. None-the-Less, this is a much better
        portrayal of what might be:

        FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD…THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
        DISAGREEMENT. WHILE ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
        DIGGING FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST…THEY DIFFER IN
        THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. THE LATEST 00 UTC GFS IS
        PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAT WHILE IT
        SHOWS SOME SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST…THIS STORM
        REMAINS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR AREA TO BRING ANY WEATHER TO OUR AREA
        FOR WED INTO THURS…ALTHOUGH IT DOES BEGIN TO TILT THE TROUGH
        NEGATIVE BY WED NIGHT TO ALLOW THE STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
        EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE…THE 00 UTC GGEM DIGS THE TROUGH
        INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND STARTS TO CUT IT OFF. THIS ALLOWS A STORM
        TO DEVELOP RIGHT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND TO SIT AND STRENGTHEN
        JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO OUR
        AREA. THE 00 UTC ECMWF IS A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO MODELS…AND
        WOULD BRING SOME PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ TO THE EASTERN
        HALF OF OUR AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE 00 UTC GEFS
        MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS
        STORM. AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY…AND THE
        FACT THAT WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT…WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO
        WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW…WITH
        P-TYPE BASED OFF SFC TEMPS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN.

  64. NAO is negative and the PNA is going slightly positive, pretty solid signals for an east coast storm next week. I am anxiously awaiting the afternoon runs.

  67. 12z GFS has the nor’easter but it is a coastal hugger. Low is sitting over Nantucket at hour 156. Too warm for eastern/southern New England but significant interior and northern New England snows.

    1. Major blocking going on as the GFS advances. Trough becomes negatively tilted and sends the storm in over Maine and then NW into Quebec. Even northern New England doesn’t do too well for snow with that run.

  68. From Brett Anderson at Accuweather:

    Potential East Coast Nor’easter next week.

    Computer models continue to hint at a possible East Coast/Maritimes storm for the middle of next week.

    Confidence is higher than usual that there will indeed be an intensifying storm off the Northeast U.S. coast by Wednesday. The question right now is the timing of the two pieces of upper-level energy that are supposed to phase. The earlier they phase, the more likely that the storm hugs the coast and spreads snow through interior New England and up into southeastern Quebec and perhaps northwestern New Brunswick, while rain and wind increase along the coast.

    A slower phase means that the storm gets farther east out into the Atlantic earlier before getting drawn more northward. This scenario would mean most of the heavier precipitation misses New England and southeastern Quebec, while snow blossoms over New Brunswick, perhaps northwestern Nova Scotia and western PEI, while areas farther east have a higher chance of heavy rain.

    Obviously, it is way early in the ballgame now, so just wait and see as better model guidance comes in over the weekend.

    1. So it looks like in either scenerio, us in SE NE wont see much if any snows. Still a good sign though of things to come 🙂

      1. Not necessarily, the 0z Euro delivered several inches of snow even to a good part of central and eastern MA!

      1. Jealous Scott! I went to school in Upstate NY and all my friends down here were all jealous when I was measuring snow in feet and they were measuring rain in inches. Looking forward to ur reports from up there during storms.

            1. Nice, my neighbor from home went there as well, but she graduated in ’98 – probably before your time. Good school!

              1. Yes def before my time. I was class of ’06. I loved it. Loved the area too. RPI is an excellent school too, knew a few people who went there.

  71. This possible nor’easter looks like it could drop some snow west and north of 495, this is the kinda winter we have in store, have a good day everyone 🙂

  72. This is from NWS in Albany, not such a rosey picture:

    WEDNESDAY…
    LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY…AND INTENSIFIES AS
    THE BC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN USA. THE DIGGING UPPER
    TROUGH ALSO PROVIDES A PATH FOR THIS CAROLINA LOW TO MOVE UP THE
    COAST PAST NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE
    POPS…WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG RI AND EASTERN MASS. TEMPERATURE
    PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS COULD HAVE
    A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE MORNING. AN INTERESTING SCENARIO THAT
    BEARS WATCHING…BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS EXTREME POINT.

    1. It is possible if the low intensifies enough, it could manufacture its own cold air. It has been stronger with each run.

  73. The Wundermap currently has the 12Z Euro at 75 hours.

    Does anyone have a link to a site where it comes out earlier?

    Thanks

    2. this is one storm I am going to hope with everything I have goes out to sea. Those areas do not need anything else.

      1. You’re gonna be buried if that shifts a bit east! Still plenty of time to do that. At the very least, you would probably be in for some decent front and/or back end snow.

  76. It’s actually down to 982mb by the time it tracks into Central New England. Big rain and wind producer for us.

    1. I’m not, sorry JimmyJames 🙂

      A nice 18 inch snowfall on Christmas Eve, beginning after everyone safely arrives at their destination sounds good.

      1. ugh – our family travels in the morning………. it’s a tough time for snow I guess – I was trying to think of another scenario but can’t

    1. Yes and the Euro is “usually” pretty good at picking that up.

      So, we shall see, but seriously, would you expect anything other
      than an inside runner?

      1. Old Salty – you are forever patient with me and I appreciate it – I am sure I have asked this before but keeping all of the terms in my head seems impossible. Does an inside runner mean it comes inland rather than right up the coast and does that mean warmer air for our area? Those are wild guesses. Thank you!

        1. I’ll answer for OS – yes!

          The Euro’s track is up through western New England (inland track). Any storm track west of us is an “inside runner” and would deliver warmer air.

    2. I’m surprised that the atmosphere is ready to recharge or set up so quickly after Sandy to produce another relatively deep low pressure system. 982 mb is pretty strong. A bit concerned about the 1037 mb high just west of Newfoundland. That creates quite a pressure gradient.

  80. Inside runner draws in mild air and is a killer for snowlovers as it tracks inland. You want to keep the low out over the ocean away from the coast and a high to the north to draw down the cold air.

  81. Updating shortly…

    I’ve been having one of my famous episodes of atrial fibrillation and ventricular tachycardia since 4:31AM. How fun is that? It’s a party! It usually spontaneously resolves. And it’s just part of the double heart condition I have. I’m fine really. 🙂

    Anyway looks like a bit of a chill in the days ahead, probably making the first week of November average a little cooler than normal. It’s also a dry pattern. We do have a potential storm threat for sometime next week but the jury’s out, way out, on that at this point. So low confidence, generic wording upcoming…

    2. Hope ur doing ok TK, take care of that ticker!

      Regarding ur med/long range forecasts, u sorta take a Bellichick-like approach, low confidence, generic wording 😛

    3. Woods Hill keeping you in my thoughts and prayers with a hope it all resolves quickly!! Please don’t update. Just rest. You don’t want to make me head to Woburn to keep you quiet now, do you????

      1. Too late, already updated!

        If you’re ever in the Woburn area, let me know. We’ll grab a coffee or beverage of your choice!

        1. Awwww thank you. That’d be nice.

          But seriously. Please don’t do what isn’t necessary. Remember I’m a worrier !

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