Cooler Breezes

122 Comments

3:50PM

November is here, and as if on cue, the weather is turning a bit blustery and cooler. This general pattern will be with us into the start of next week as the trough associated with what was once Sandy, combined with another trough from the west, hangs over eastern Canada, getting reinforced and delivering cool air to New England. This is also a largely dry pattern.

As we reach the middle of next week, things may get a little more active again as we’ll be watching a potential storm on the East Coast. It is far, far too early to even think about details at this point. Just watching the potential for the next couple days, and then will start to try to paint a picture.

Meanwhile, the updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH goes this way…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 49.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

122 thoughts on “Cooler Breezes”

  1. Thanks TK, hope you are feeling better.

    Here is the late PM Taunton discussion. Good news at least on the coastal flooding threat (or lack thereof) with next week’s storm due to very low astronomical tides:

    Wednesday and Thursday…
    the models are in fairly good agreement in showing the potential for
    a strong storm to affect our region. Of course there is
    considerable uncertainty on the timing/track and overall intensity
    at this time range. The main threats would be a period of strong
    winds along the coast and the potential for accumulating wet snow
    across the interior. The threat for accumulating wet snow across
    the interior would depend on if the storm tracks far enough off the
    coast…to allow enough cold air to remain in place. If the storm
    gets too wrapped up it will just be a rainstorm for everyone. Way
    too early to get much more specific…being the potential event is 6
    days in the future. We will say that the overall threat of coastal
    flooding appears low…given very low astronomical tides.

  2. Thanks, TK. Hope you are feeling better.

    This time I am hoping we don’t get snow nxt. Weds. as I have an appt. in Brighton. Already put it off this wk. due to the storm.

    Amazing that Sandy is still spinning around. But we knew that would happen. But when she is totally gone another Nor’easter could take her place!

  3. Thanks TK and hope you are feeling better!! All I have to say about next week’s storm is please don’t let it delay the election!!! Not sure I can take any extra days of all of the commercials!

    1. Oh good grief I hadn’t thought of that. I love listening to the news as I wake up but it’s all brown and warren commercials. My day starts with my BP horribly elevated. Please let it end

  5. i see an all rain event for most in southern new england besides for possibly some snow mixing in in the highest elevations of central massachussetts.Ski areas in vt and nh could do good with this storm.

    1. Good point about the ski areas matt. I dont think some of them can afford to have a season like last. Early season natural snow will be a huge boost. The snow would prob stay around for a while too as temps wont warm too much. Ironically the storm would coincide with the opening day of the Boston Ski Show, running 11/8 – 11/11. Im pretty sure ur a skiier so come on down if u can, i volunteer at the ticket booth every year, i can get u in for free, or anyone else for that matter. Just ask for AceMaster! 🙂

  6. Pete Bouchard said that today (November 1st) is the beginning of Solar Winter. I never heard of the term before. 🙂

    Also, Pete has a warm rain for next week (60’s) and Todd a cold rain (40’s)…which is the more likely scenario at this early stage?

    2. would depend on if the track goes well west then we would be in the east side of the storm. ( warm rain since we would be on the warm side of the storm) Or if it travels to our east then you would be on the west side ( colder side of the storm.

  7. Thanks TK.
    I think next week will be in the liquid form. Still early and plenty more opportunities for snow.

    1. Get those leaves raked, JJ!

      I’m doing that this weekend with my son but there will still be more to come.

      1. all my leaves are off the trees. raking this weekend. I hope Barry Burbank is at the ski show 😀

      2. With everything the two maples on either side of our house still have at least 2/3 of their leaves. The Japanese maple in our back yard also has at least 2/3 of the leaves. Those are the only 3 threes we have in the yard. The yard meanwhile is covered from our leaves and the neighbors since they blew across our yard and all stopped at the fence on the south side of the house.

    2. I agree with you Jimmy that rain is the likely form. It will be just a matter of (warm vs. cold) rain and how much wind which the northeast doesn’t need much of right now.

  8. The 18z GFS keeps Boston’s 850mb temp below 0C from about 18z Friday through about 09z next Wednesday. Chilly time!

  9. Regardless of what happens next week, temps eventually rise to just above normal levels for most of the CONUS accroding to the CPC, probably a last bout of Indian Summer.

    2. I think we have bouts of warm weather on and off till mid December, that is when I predict things to go down hill.

      1. Awhile back Brett Anderson hinted at a fairly quiet December then more active and snowier Janruary-Feburary so you may be on the right track on that John.

  10. This is Eric, one of the few who takes part in the semi-civil debates on New England Weather Works’ page. The middle of next week should be interesting, I am looking forward to see if the GFS will flip-flop like it did with Superstorm Sandy. The temps are very cold this week, and the long term forecasts seem like they will get a bit colder.

    1. Welcome to the blog Eric! I agree that the pattern is a cool to chilly one into next week. So far I don’t really have a feel for next week, but can’t ignore signals for an event in close proximity to the East Coast.

      3. I am indeed a weatherman in training. I am a freshman at Lyndon State, and am majoring in Atomspheric Science-Broadcast Track.

  12. The only thing I get from the models for next Thursday is “yucky.” (Yucky is highly definitive yet relatively unknown meteorological term. :))

    I can already hear a TV met saying “wintry mix.”

  15. Welcome Eric !

    In spite of the short work week, TGIF !!

    I wonder if both the EURO and GFS signal for a mild Veteran’s Day weekend will come true, that would be nice.

  16. Welcome Eric!!!

    Looking at the GFS it is a better solution for storm ravaged areas vs. the euro. It actually takes a close pass at 40/70 so maybe a good omen for winter.

      1. In December or January but there just isn’t enough cold air to work with yet. Far interior (Upstate NY and northern NE) would have a snow event if the Euro/GFS tracks were to hold.

    1. I have it, Captain!!

      Eric we are making predictions with regard to the amount of snow at Logan during the 2012-2013 winter season. A not terribly firm date of Nov 15 was set to have your predictions posted. I’m keeping track so if I don’t acknowledge your prediction it just means I haven’t seen it so please remind me 🙂 We are predicting to the tenths.

  18. Welcome Eric!!!

    06Z GFS for next event:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F02%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=138&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    0Z Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1

    So, here we go again.

    At this point, I would lean towards an “inside runner” or possibly a “coastal hugger”.
    I don’t think a benchmark storm is in the cards. We’ll keep watching.

  19. This may be beyond my weather knowledge, but will the position of that high pressure area in eastern canada have an effect on the eventual track? I noticed the GFS has it further east than the EURO and the EURO ensembles and NOGAPS that OS posted have the high further west, almost due north of us.

    1. I don’t think that it affects the track of the storm so much as it provides
      drainage of cold air into New England, to perhaps support snow in the
      interior and up North.

    1. Charlie, did they officially cancel the entire year?? I heard they were gonna cancel the winter classic and all-star games this week.

    2. Games are officially cancelled through November 30, I didn’t think they made a call on the rest of the season yet. Though unfortunately Charlie is probably right 🙁

      1. I think your right mark. Cancelled games for Nov is old news, I thought there was somthing that I missed. Big hockey guy here.

  21. I was pointing out that it’s a close pass to the benchmark on the GFS run, still inside that mark but certainly not far off. And just bc its close doesn’t mean snow this time of year. A lot of other factors in play this time of year.

    1. Hadi, i re-read ur post about the benchmark from earlier and I agree, it may be a good sign for the rest of the winter if we can get a storm to take that track. It means, at least for now, the pattern would be allowing for this to occur where last year we couldnt get one of those if we tried. Its also good the blocking isnt so strong that it pushes the storm track to our south like a few years ago when the mid-atlantic got all the snow.

    2. Hadi,

      Of course, not the least of which is the SSTs which are running in the
      mid-50s. Also, on that run, 850MB temps are still too WARM at the coast
      and a long way inland as well. Simply NOT cold enough yet.

  22. I agree, too warm in SNE for significant snow this time around, even with a benchmark track. If this were January, it would be a different story. Upstate NY, northern NE, and perhaps western MA could get in on the snow. I think the best chance for frozen precip in SNE would be a track SE of the benchmark, which would draw the cold air closer to the coast but also deliver us lighter precip as we would be on the fringe of the storm.

  23. OS totally agree!! The waters are wayyyy too warm even with a benchmark storm to get much snow in eastern sections this time of year.

    My earlier post must have been confusing bc I was just pointing out that the GFS track is pretty decent for later in winter.

    1. Hadi very true, HOWEVER, there are some indications
      there the trough will have a negative tilt to it, so the right
      track could back in here with N to NW winds and plenty of SNOW.

      Of course, this would be an outside chance.

      06Z DGEX model hinted at this.

          1. At 120 Hours has a deepening system just off
            the NC coast with upper winds destined to have it hug the coast. We’ll see.

  25. 12z GFS is much warmer and OTS. It’s basically just a southern stream storm. What happened to that nice digging trough in the east? It’s gone!

  26. it might turn out that way Mark but don’t take the GFS seriously until about 48 hrs. out, maybe 72 hrs if it’s having a good day unless you want a general idea on the overall pattern

  29. It would be nice if this was just a fish storm and give the places hardest hit by Sandy time to clean up and not have to have another wind and rain event.

    1. JJ, would be nice, but I fear it is destined to be an inside runner. Not sure
      how much impact that would have on NJ and NYC. Before it moves just
      about over them, I suspect they’ll get some more wind and rain, unfortunately.
      Let’s hope that the winds and tides won’t be too bad.

      12Z Euro forecasts 850MB winds up to 60Knots. Not sure how that
      might translate to the surface.

  30. Euro agrees with the GFS in one regard – it shows a much warmer solution. Bulk of the significant snow is in southern Canada and western Maine. While still a direct hit, the storm definitely is not as deep and strong as the Euro was depicting it yesterday, which is good news for NY/NJ.

  31. It’s Friday and I’m losing it!

    For kicks, here are some charts from the 12Z JMA model (Japanese).

    120 Hours Surface:
    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

    144 Hours Surface:
    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif

    144 Hours Precip:
    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_144HR.gif

    144 Hours Winter Critical Thicknesses:
    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_THK_WINTER-CRITICAL_144HR.gif

    If this were ever to verify (and there isn’t much chance of that), this would be
    a pretty dandy early season snowstorm, even for Boston!!!

  35. If the EURO solution comes to fruition then the areas that were hit by Sandy would be in real trouble. Sandy destroyed so much of the coastal areas that protect the region that any storm would just be plain disastrous for the region.

    1. I saw one picture in a NJ coastal town where the ocean now crosses into a neighborhood. The beach, any barriers or sand dunes, completely gone. I’ve read stories about new inlets having been created. Crazy !

      I have college friends in SW Connecticut who are currently without power.

      Death toll in the US is now 97 and 165, including the Carribean nations Sandy tore through.

      I think TWC is running a 1 hr special on Sandy, its either tonight or Sunday night, but certainly, I would like to see it.

      1. I just can’t believe the devastation. That was one mighty
        storm and our area was spared the worst of it.

        1. It’s horrifying to watch the coverage. I’d like to see TWC special too. If you think of it, could you post when it’s on. I’ll do some checking too. Tx.

  36. Good NWS Upton discussion on coastal storm:

    The weather pattern becomes more active during the middle of next
    week. Models continue to show the development of a coastal low from
    the southern stream…but there is a split among models as to
    whether or not it phases with northern stream energy. Timing and
    position of the resultant surface low therefore differ. The 02/12z
    operational GFS and ensemble mean have become more progressive and
    unphased…potentially showing its southeast bias in patterns like this
    this far out in time. The European model (ecmwf)…typically farther west…still
    continues phase the two streams and show the surface low closer to
    the coastline and slower to pass through. Preference therefore is to
    go more along the lines of HPC guidance…which…like both the
    02/00z ensemble means of both GFS and European model (ecmwf)…is a
    compromise…taking the low over or very near the 40n/70w benchmark
    sometime late Wednesday or Wednesday night. The past few European model (ecmwf)
    ensemble mean runs have shown a similar track.

    What all of this means for US is a likelihood of rain…focused on
    Wednesday and Wednesday night across the southeast two-thirds of the
    forecast area. Have capped probability of precipitation at chance farther north and east
    during this period. The thermal profile could be cold enough for
    some snow or mixed precipitation at the onset and end of the event…but
    the timing of the precipitation may preclude any wintry precipitation.

    Fortunately…astronomical tides will be relatively low as we’ll be
    nearly in the midpoint of full and new moons. Timing…track…and
    strength of the low are uncertain…so it is difficult at this point
    to forecast with at least moderate confidence the degree of coastal
    flooding…if any at all. This will continue to be monitored. Gusty
    winds of around 40 miles per hour will also be possible.

  37. Nice write up from HPC:

    349 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012

    VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2012 – 12Z FRI NOV 09 2012

    …POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING NOR’EASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
    NEXT WEEK…

    USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/02 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND 00Z/02
    EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN TO DEFINE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES
    FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. AN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE AVERAGE OF A CERTAIN
    NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC MODEL WITH THE INITIAL
    CONDITIONS, IE. THE MEASURED WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, “PERTURBED.”
    THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER OUTCOMES ARE OFTEN DIFFERENT THAN THE MAIN
    MODEL DUE TO THESE FORCED ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR INITIALIZATION,
    WITH AN AVERAGING OF THE RESULTING SPREAD AFFORDING A MORE STABLE
    ENVELOPE OF SCENARIOS AGAINST WHICH TO JUDGE ANY GIVEN SOLUTION.
    THE 12Z/02 GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MANUAL EUROPEAN
    CENTRE BLEND- ITS HEAVY INCORPORATION OF THE MEAN HOPEFULLY
    MITIGATING SOME OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE- WITH THE
    12Z/02 ECMWF AND UKMET DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC
    COAST. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE
    FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT FROM THIS WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
    ARCTIC AIR WILL WEDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY DAY 7. THE EAST
    COAST WILL STILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR LARGE STORMS, WITH
    ENERGY SWIRLING TOGETHER BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO CREATE
    ANOTHER COASTAL CYCLONE, ALBEIT A TAMER VERSION THAN THIS WEEK’S.
    STILL, MORE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE ALONG THE
    RECENT TRACK OF SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL CIRCULATION WOULD
    IMPACT RECOVERY EFFORTS AND EXACERBATE THE ALREADY STRESSED
    COASTLINE, RIVERS, TREES, AND POWER GRIDS.

    1. Thank you Scott. Facinating read.

      I wonder IF the late phasing JMA solution might not be so far off
      afterall?

      Well, we certainly have many more runs to watch. In this case, let’s
      HOPE for an OTS solution.

      1. I haven’t heard anyone else mention the Euro is working with the wrong MJO phase, which would cause it to have major issues. I’m really stumbling on this one.

        1. Yes, I caught that as well. We’ll see if there is an adjustment with later runs.

          Hard to believe they’d do that with the Euro?????

          I’d like to see TK’s take on this.

          1. All I’ll say right now is it’s very interesting and I am going to try to contact someone for more info on this.

    2. I have trouble understanding how he is putting so much faith into the GFS which just flip-flopped all over the place with sandy and has done so already again with this storm. He says that the Euro has consistently been coming up with the stronger coastal storm solution but has been inconsistent in how it gets there. Well to me, that strengthens my belief in the Euro if it is changing several initialization factors and still arriving at the same solution. The upper air pattern next week will again be conducive for east coast storm development. No reason to doubt the Euro, which again so far has been unwavering in its solution.

  39. Well the latest run of the Euro (ECMWF) is a depressing one, it looks like the temperatures are warm enough that it will be mostly rain for everyone, with some mixing or even snow farther North and in higher elevations. My major concern at the moment, and I am sure others may share this with me, is the winds that this coastal storm will produce in CT, NY, and NJ. These states I just mentioned are still dealing with widespread damage and power outages, and more power outages are not needed. Lets see what the later runs of the GFS, CMC, and Navy show

  40. Well, I completely missed the meso-rain event in Metro Boston this afternoon. Thought there would be sprinkles but not even enough to add to the forecast I posted last night. Was I wrong.

  41. For me the over all storm track is more important than the precip type. It’s still early for snow. But if the over all storm track is favorable for snow in sne, Regardless if we get snow or not. Then it could be a good sign for the winter.

    1. Very warm system with that 1035 high east of, enhancing the marine air-mass. Think rain for this storm.

      1. Snow is a longshot this early in November anyway, especially near the coast and not-too-distant interior.

      2. Scott, from what I recall of my years at LSC, the best snowmakers are when a storm gets north of Boston, heads into western Nova Scotia, New Brunswick or eastern Maine and the wraparound clobbers northern New England.

        One cant understand the shadow effect of the White Mtns until they spend a winter up there. The storm will be sitting near Cape Cod and on radar, there’ll be all kinds of heavy precip in NH heading north and because of the easterly component of the wind towards the White Mtns, there’s not an ounce of precip falling in Lyndonville.

        The other track is the front end dump of an inside runner that evetually redevelops in the Gulf of Maine.

        Its funny, in many ways to do well snowwise in NE Vermont, you almost have to route for things that will not necessarily provide a lot of snow to southern New England.

        1. It took us awhile to see any meaningful rainfall from Sandy due to the shadowing. But we did manage to pick up about an inch of rain as it was swirling around.
          Do you remember if Lyndon still makes out with a lot of snowfall during the winter despite the shadowing?

        2. Yes…it does get its fair share of snowfall. But, in different ways than southern New England. Whereas down here, once or twice a winter there might be a good snow squall on a cold front, most of the cold frontal passages up there are good for an inch or two…..the clipper systems that go across northern New England that do nothing down here can drop a quick 3 to 6 inches up there……oh and the cold…a high of 25F down here is good for a high of 10F up there and below zero at night. If its a normal winter, I think you’ll see your fill of snow and cold.

          1. Sounds great, especially after last “winter”. We’ll see how cold we get early next week as models are indicating the 850mb temps will likely get below -10C.

  43. Sandy notwithstanding…….. I think an overall pattern change can sometimes be proceeded by an east coast storm…..and it looks like a pattern change is coming in 7 to 10 days of a milder eastern United States.

      2. It will be that way on and off till mid December. That is when I predict old man winter to finally come out and play.

        1. Brett Anderson mentioned in one of his blogs awhile back a possibly mild December and then snowy January-February.

  44. I think winter starts late just after Christmas, personally I think the difference in Boston to say Worcester will be almost different climates this winter. From Boston to Providence corridor will feature more rain than snow this winter and Worcester will see more snow than rain.

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