November Chill

74 Comments

10:22PM

A low pressure trough hangs on nearby, and a northwesterly flow will deliver chilly weather for the next few days. Clouds will dominate through Saturday with some instability and colder air aloft, but Sunday and the start of next week will feature more sun.

I continue to watch the potential for an East Coast storm for the middle of next week. But at 5 days away it’s still too early to talk about details, other than there is potential for a significant rain and wind event in the forecast area.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 46.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/wind. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain/PM rain showers. Low 45. High 53.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

74 thoughts on “November Chill”

  3. EURO solution of 987 mb low east of northern Virginia and a 1034 mb high in east central Canada. The isobars look tightly packed for a time from central NJ, northward to central New England. Not good.

  5. Thanks TK. How are you feeling?

    Is there still. Low chance of serious flooding along the coast for this storm? I sure hope so. I don’t know what that would do to those to our south

    1. I think the east coast of New England will be ok because its coastal towns still have the beaches, dunes and natural barriers that will greatly guard against a storm surge ( my guess might be a couple feet in height ).

      However, as the photos show, most of NJ coastal communities had those protections completely wiped away, so…… lets hope any surge down there coincides at low tide.

      High tide Wednesday afternoon around 5 pm and 5:30 am Thursday morning.

    3. Thanks Captain. Great video from TWC. I have become less of a fan of TWC in recent years but I think they did a great job covering Sandy. I especially liked the way they kept everyone in the loop with the different computer models in a way everyone could understand. I like the new severe weather guy on there too, not Stu Ostro, but the other guy in the video. He’s like a young Paul Kocin 🙂

    1. The swirl to the east of SNE is actually a disturbance that formed yesterday and was responsible for the rain that I did not forecast. Sandy’s original center is over the St. Lawrence Valley, nearly spun down. You can pick it out if you look really closely.

  8. Still some divergence in Models.

    Euro still advertises an inside runner/coastal hugger.
    Canandian is East of benchmark (973 MB)
    Gfs is about benhmark

    So who knows. Looking way too warm no matter which track.

    Coastal wind/rain. Hope it’s not too mach wind.

  9. Hi all! Just a quick personal note. Normally would not want to make a big deal of this because it’s something I’ve dealt with multiple times since 1997. My heart has been in atrial fibrillation since 4:30 Thursday morning. It’s not the first time. The condition actually runs in the family, but I seem to have won the lottery of longer episodes. 😉

    If it hasn’t resolved by noon then I am taking a trip to the hospital to be proactive about this episode. So if I don’t update for a while you’ll know why. In reality this should not take all that long to deal with. 🙂 I may even have my phone with me and can check in from there, depending on how long my visit is.

    My leaning btw on the midweek storm is with the Euro. That is not great news for coastal areas.

    1. Good luck at the hospital – I have had heart issues and always debated when to go, always better to go sooner. I just did not like going on Friday night/Saturday b/c sometimes they would hold you to Monday AM until the varsity team arrived!

    7. TK. When you get to the hospital they may start you on a blood thinner and discuss options for cardioversion if IV treatment to convert you back to sinus rythm does not work. If you have any questions regarding treatment, feel free to ask. Hope you get well!

      1. Hoping the IV works. I’ve had about 10 solid episodes of a-fib since 1997 and each and every time it resolved without treatment. Hoping it happens even before the IV but we’ll see. Thanks to you and I will let you know if I have any questions!

        Thanks for being part of the blog!

  10. Tk don’t wait till noon go now please. Nothing else is as important as that, please go now, relax and the best of luck to you.

  14. 12Z GFS shifted a little more west, has the center going right over Providence. Slows down as it gets here too. I’ll tell ya though, more and more cold air coming in on the back side with each model run. If this decides to track just east of the benchmark…

  19. im wondering if this storm tracks further east would southern new england get a chance of mix precipiation. or is it just to warm for any storm to give eastern mass winter precipitation right now

  20. We headed down to Scituate and marshfield and were pleased to see very little damage. We were also surprised how many leaves are still on the trees. It’s a beautiful day

      1. Humarock had less from Irene than this storm since the far north side of hum was underwater with sandy and there was far far more beach erosion but the rest of the area sure had more trees down from Irene it seemed

  21. Hard to believe that GGEM model showing a sub 970mb low so soon after Sandy. Something to be said for patterns.

    If that stuff shows up this winter, man it’ll snow.

  22. 12z EURO a little lower on the low pressure projection (984 mb) and a little higher on the east-central Canada high pressure (1039 mb) than today’s 0z run. Would think that only tightens the pressure gradient and increases the wind potential.

    2. Yes……..

      One of my favorite webcams is the skaket beach webcam, in Orleans on Cape Cod. There’s also a picture on the site that shows Nauset Beach in Orleans on the ocean side. Well, that beach has lost a TON of sand from Sandy and the high tides have been nearly making it to the dunes since the storm. Normally, its a steep slope of beach that most high tides dont make it over, coming nowhere near to the dunes.

      3. I believe that Vicki. There was quite a high tide last Monday at noontime, so I’m sure a lot of sand was lost.

      1. Holden–and at about 900′.

        We got 15″ from that storm last October just for reference on highly marginal events.

  25. Some people are tring to scare the living crap out of people on a facebook weather page. This is going to be a nor easter , we get them all the time. its not such a great idea to say that this next storm is going to be a hybrid storm like sandy.

  26. Thinking of you TK and hoping you are on the mend!

    Was at Castle Island today for a fundraising walk and watched a couple of cruise ships leave that have been stuck here since the port of NY could not open. It was a beautiful sight to see them heading out into the harbor.

    1. Sue we saw cruise ships too and wondered if they were the ones stuck here. You just answered our question

  27. I saw that Canadian 12Z run as well and couldn’t believe it, a 962MB monster
    parked just South of the Cape and Islands! Still too warm for snow here with that
    run, but scary just the same!!

    1. 7PM NWS Taunton update is in. Still very concerned.
      More talk of snow in the interior. Much wind in the forecast. Much rain.

  30. For those places that see the snow from this next storm system it could be a while before another round of wintry precipitation happens. Looking at the latest CPC outlook there is a big pattern shift happening where it will get warm in the east and cold out in the west.

  32. it seems like the Euro model is saying northin for eastern mass, and areas south of the pike. then any were from 1-3 for central and western mass with 3-6 inches across the hills of central massachusetts. I cut each one of those by 1 to 2 inches do to the warm ground temperature. so add 1 to 2 inches to what i just said to get what the model is saying. this is going to be fun to track but sadly i won’t get any of the snow out of it.

  33. I get the idea southeast Mass and the Cape may be in for impacts that may be a bit worse than what we saw from Sandy due to its much closer proximity to this upcoming noreaster.

  34. Wind gusts over the interior of E. MA look to max out in the 40-45 mph range w/the next storm. Cape/Islands/Coast may approach 55/60 mph.

Comments are closed.