Sunday Morning Update / The Week Ahead

67 Comments

7:17AM

Hi all! A quick personal note: Still in hospital but I have laptop with me therefore after a pretty decent night of rest and some nice medication to slow my heart rate (staying for a while today for a few tests then we’ll see what happens…) I am able to do a quick update for the WHW forecast area of eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

Discussion…

No big changes in the overall idea from the last entry. We’re chilly and dry through Tuesday as a low pressure trough departs to the east and high pressure builds in, with a northwest to northerly flow. Election Day (Tuesday) looks bright and chilly. No excuses not to get out and vote! Strong signals continue for the East Coast storm for midweek. Slowing the timing slightly so that for most of our area the heaviest precipitation and strongest wind take place Wednesday night into Thursday. The main concern about this storm threat is coastal flooding, and there will be some, but it will likely be only minor to locally moderate due to an astronomically much lower tide that what occurred during Sandy. Wind, though significant, will not be nearly as strong. However, some weakened trees and branches that did not come down during Sandy may do so in the midweek storm, so there will be a risk of additional power outages. Precipitation should be mainly rain across the forecast area due to a strengthening east wind ahead of the storm that should warm the atmosphere enough. Also, upper levels will be warming during the storm. Snow should be limited to the mountains. It is not out of the question that higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA pick up accumulating snow from part of the storm. Friday should be a dry, windy, chilly day behind the storm. An early peek at next weekend indicates fair weather and moderating temperatures.

Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s except around 30 urban centers. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s except some upper 10s inland valley areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over south to north followed by rain developing south to north. Potential for some mix/snow higher elevations well NW of Boston. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind, tapering off late. Low 38. High 50 (possibly warmer SE).

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

WEEKEND: Fair weather. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

67 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update / The Week Ahead”

  1. God love you TK for updating the blog while in the hospital. Praying for good results with your tests. Get some rest!

  2. TK – thanks for the update. Now, I want you to just relax! Let us know what happens when you are ready. Even when you get home, just relax. We are a good group here (thanks to you!) and we will do fine. Good luck with your tests – I am sure all is ok. My prayers and thoughts are with you.

  4. hope your feeling better and will get out of the hospital soon , did they charge you the extra hour ?

  5. Glad your doing better today TK. Hope your tests are ok and you can go home today. You always go above and beyond with us on the blog and we appreciate it!

    1. TK, thank you for your commitment to this blog. I hope you get a clean bill of health and are able to come home. Don’t worry about us here, we can some how manage to entertain ourselves 🙂

      1. Thanks!

        I know you can all go on and on. 🙂 No, that’s really a good thing!

        I just like to have the forecast up-to-date, and being given my laptop, a decent rest, and feeling pretty well this morning allowed me to review the guidance and update. So I took advantage. Resting now while I wait for the cardiologist. I have at least one more test to do today and hopefully I’ll be home before the sun goes down!

  7. TK, I’ve been off the blog for a few days busy painting several rooms in my home. For that reason, I just about your medical condition, so I apologize for not getting a get- well wish to you sooner!
    GET WELL! Will keep you in my thoughts hoping for a speedy recovery!

  8. Joe Joyce has the storm moving in Weds evening. Forecasting 1.75″ rain for Boston and 1-3″ most areas. Has winds at 40-50 MPH and higher in SE MA. mentioned snow possibilities way inland.

  9. Thanks for the update TK! Hope everything works out well so u can get home and relax. If they had an emmy/oscar/grammy, etc. award for best blog host, I would nominate you! 🙂

  10. Tk I echo what everyone has said. Relax. Don’t worry about here as we will. Do fine till you get back. Hang in there.

  11. Hey TK,

    Good weekend to rest! At least it’s the bye week and you don’t have the Pats to stress you out with 40 yard bombs against them all day.

    Best,

    Wade

  12. TK, thanks for the update NOW GET SOME REST. Unless the midweek storm does something totally unexpected we will be more than ok here posting to ourselves. Take the entire week if necessary, as long as you get better long term. Hopefully we will be needing you a lot this upcoming winter. 🙂

  15. I rested a few hours and also had an echocardiogram done. Waiting for the cardiologist to look at that and talk to me but very optimistic. I’m back in normal sinus rhythm, feeling A LOT stronger, and my heart rate is 65 and BP is back to normal.

    Thanks again to EACH and EVERY ONE of you!

  16. Thanks TK and feel better!
    As I said the other day I wish this storm would stay out over the fish but I don’t see that happening. The last thing residents affected by Sandy need is another coastal storm. It looks like a pattern shift will happen and the east will get a break as the NAO looks to be heading towards neutral.

  18. Heading home in a short while. 🙂

    The best news of all is that there is nothing serious going on, and that the only thing I need to do is get more potassium, i.e., eat more bananas, which I love anyway. 🙂

    I’ll be back to the blog FROM HOME soon!

  19. Tk just getting here for the first time today and I am smiling from ear to ear about your GREAT news!!! You are amazing……..I couldn’t believe when I read you had updated from the hospital. Please when you get home REST!!! We are covered and as you say can go on and on……..hmmm I think I may excel at that!!!

    Take care and thank you so very much!

    1. He is a stubborn one isn’t he? Haha, I visited him in the hospital and was excited to be able to post on the blog. 🙂

  22. The chances of some measurable snow in November is unlikely. In recent years we had some storms right before thanksgiving but few and far between. So far everything in my winter prediction is seeming to hold. As I called for some warmth on and off, but more on till mid December. The only small worry I have, and It’s very small is how much sandy may or may not hamper my thinking, how much or will this upcoming patern change things. Also the status of the nao + or_ time will tell. One last small observation is the lack of acorns that I am seeing.

    1. Didn’t Joe Joyce say we would have several chances for snow in November a few weeks ago? Wonder if he wants to revert back on that now.

      1. We rarely have measurable snow around here during this month, it could happen and does on rare occasion. My guess and just a guess is that first plowable event will be either right before xmas or right after and this will kick everything off.

          1. As the first line states we rarely have measurable snow around during this month, it could happen and does on rare occasion. I can’t remember the last time we had an inch or more during this month, its rare but again happens on occasion.

            2. Global warming ;). I remember when my kids were in school we would more often than not have snow by Veterans Day. It was a standing joke with a few of my friends

              Now not so much!

                2. I was just trying to remember. I know we’ve had snow twice in October since my grandson was born and I believe we may have in nov once but not positive. At the least since he’s 5 its about 40% before dec 1

                3. Vicki I don’t get into all that global warming stuff sorry. I dont believe we have had measurable snow in November since your grandson was born. I tried looking it up with no luck. I believe the last November snow was a snowstorm the day before thanksgiving my guess the late 90″s. I can’t remember the exact year.

                4. I was teasing about global warming but I do know we’ve had enough snow before dec 1 at least two times since he was born June 2007. Oct/nov really doesn’t matter much I think.

    2. Hi John,

      Actually I have a ton of Acorns in my yard. I was commenting on them today with the family. Hopefully will see alot of snow this year!!

      1. TJ what part of MA are you in. Like John, We have very few here compared to last year. My grandson collects them and tosses them down the storm drain but its slim pickins this year

        I’m hoping for some really good snow storms 🙂

        1. I live in Quincy. I have them all over the yard. There aren’t as many as 2010/2011 year when we got slammed with snow but definitely more than last year. I had none a year ago.

          1. I wonder what determines the amount of acorns. We have two huge oaks and had a lot of them last year but very few this year.

      2. That’s great. I go by a job in Brookline at work. The last five winters we have gone by this property by how much we cleanup during the fall. To date believe it or not the acorn theory there has worked believe it or not, maybe just luck. None last year and none this year.

  23. It does not bother me that the CPC showing above normal temps for us since its November. If it is showing this in December, January, February, and March then the UGH meter would be running very high!

  24. 12z EURO forecasted pressure for mid week storm down to 981 mb. Hits its strongest east of New Jersey, then slowly weakens at it moves northeast.

  27. Been away from the blog for several days. Sorry to hear you are in the hospital but also glad to hear you are heading.

    1. Matt , haven’t had the chance to look at the models today, are they saying different things for the midweek storm now?

      1. euro is much colder than the gfs. actually gives the hills a good amount of snow. of 4-8 with areas in western and central mass 1-4 inches as well as some possible ice before changing to rain. gfs has all rain besides for a small amount of snow north of rt 2 being possible one model though so i would rather stick with my gut and say that this will mainly be rain for most and go with the gfs even though the euro has been good this year. i think the maritime air will interfer. if anything i would say an ice event could effect the berks and hills.

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