The Many Sides

152 Comments

8:44PM

The coming 7 days will showcase the many sides of New England’s weather. We’ll see cold and tranquil, wind & rain, maybe some snow, blustery unsettled, drying and moderating, and probably even Indian Summer before it’s all done.

The break-down:

Tonight… High pressure builds in, clouds vanish, winds die off, and the temperature drops to the coldest levels of the Autumn so far.

Tuesday… High pressure overhead brings tranquil, sunny, but chilly weather. It’s Election Day and despite the chill in the air it will be perfect for getting out to your local polling place so don’t come up with any excuses. 🙂

Wednesday… As we are enjoying our nice day Tuesday, a strong shortwave (bundle of energy) dropping through the southeastern US will join forces with a low pressure area off the Southeast Coast and intensify a coastal storm which will then deepen rapidly and move northward. This will throw a shield of precipitation into southern New England during the afternoon and evening (though some guidance has faster timing and a late morning arrival). With cold air in place, some snow may be leading the precipitation off, especially over the interior and higher elevations. The best chance of accumulating snow will be outside of the forecast area in the mountains, but I cannot rule out some accumulation of wet snow in the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH at some point Wednesday afternoon or night. The bigger story with this storm will be the wind, which will reach gale force in gusts especially in coastal areas. Wind damage is possible, as well as some scattered power outages. Coastal flooding should be minimal because of astronomically low tides, but even minor flooding can be a problem especially along the South Coast where moderate to significant flooding occurred with Sandy.

Thursday… The low pressure area should track to somewhere near Cape Cod and may do a small loop before heading east then north again in the waters just east of New England. Gusty winds will continue but will be shifting more northerly with time. Gusts should diminish and the threat of wind damage and coastal flooding will lessen. It should still be quite wet, even though the heaviest of the precipitation will likely have occurred overnight. There should be sufficient warming during the height of the storm so that anything falling on Thursday will be in the liquid form over the entire forecast area.

Friday… The storm departs, but how quickly this happens will determine the magnitude of clearing of the sky. Optimistic guidance shows clearing in the morning. A more reliable model shows clouds hanging on until late in the day when it should finally clear. Going to split the difference for now and adjust accordingly.

Weekend (Saturday / Sunday / Monday which is observed Veterans Day)… Fair weather, a warming trend, with some downright warm Indian Summer weather possible by Monday as high pressure ridging builds rapidly along the US East Coast.

The Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH:

TONIGHT: Any clouds vanish. Clear and cold. Lows ranging from 19 in deep valleys to near 30 in Downtown Boston, 20s everywhere else. Wind NW-N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Mostly sunny. A chilly day. Highs in the 40s. Light wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to start then high clouds advancing S to N toward dawn. Lows ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s coast. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds thicken S to N early. Rain develops SE to NW midday-afternoon but may start as snow in the 495 belt where some minor slushy accumulation is possible. Measurable snow may take place in the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs reach the lower 50s Cape Cod but struggle to the lower 40s in southern NH, middle to upper 40s by late day most areas. Wind NE-E increasing to 15-35 MPH but gusts 40-55 MPH by late day especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Stormy with rain, possibly heavy. Any mix well N & W to rain. Overnight rain tapers to drizzle and periods of lighter rain. Temperatures hold in the 40s. Wind E-NE 15-35 MPH with strong gusts continuing especially in coastal locations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

152 thoughts on “The Many Sides”

  1. Coastal no way we see accumulating snow around here or Boston, maybe what Tk said sure, but nothing but a snow shower here, if that. Take care.

  4. I like the idea of Indian Summer for next week…good for raking.

    Hopefully the winds won’t be too damaging. I have a bad feeling that this storm will be much more about the winds than rain or snow.

    1. Hadi… Have you ever heard about the Washington Redskins Election Prediction Theory? 17 out of 18 times when the Redskins lose at home on the Sunday closest to the election the incumbent loses. My mom told me that one today.

  9. Thanks TK.
    Looks like something for everyone in the forecast with the possiblity of the 1st flakes of the season and mild temps.

  12. So the 00z GFS offers a solution that’s further east, unphased, open system. Gotta love these last minute suggestions from the models. This solution may not be far from verifying either.

  13. Logan under freezing for the first time this cold season, at 31F.

    Saw this and thought about those without power. If there’s a sliver of relatively good news, there must be a slight ocean component to the wind in NJ, as immediate coastal areas are 35 to 40F, while interior NJ is in the 20s.

    1. If I remember correctly Boston usually gets its first 32 degree reading on average around November 7th.
      Interior areas up in elevation could get a light accumulation of snowfall with this next storm system.

  14. hard frost here in billerica. The marshland looks cool with tick frost ( ice crystals) on the brush and trees. At first it looked like there was a small coating of snow then i looked closer

    1. What a great term Matt – tick frost. I love your description too. WE had a hard frost for the first time here too. Mosquitoes gone for sure now!

  15. The very thing that creates a colder scenario, a track further offshore, may also be the undoing of the interior snow potential, if all the significant precip stays along the coastline or out to sea.

  17. Hmmm

    Interesting situation. Which model do you believe?

    Euro, Canadian and Ukmet all have a cold solution with the Canadian being
    the coldest with the most precip. Euro has SNOW even in Boston, but tracks so
    far to the East that precip would be limited.

    NAM has the warmest solution of all.
    GFS is somewhere in the middle.

    Look at this Canadian at 54 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=054&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1

    Here is the 850 MB chart for the same period:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=054&map=na&stn2=UV10m&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    And finally, 10M winds. Please note: NNW in Boston

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=UV10m&hh=054&map=na&stn2=TT850&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    If this verifies, we are looking at SNOW for Boston!!!!

  19. NWS:
    * SNOW…
    A TRICKY FCST…THE LATEST 06/3Z SREF AND 06/0Z ECMWF KEEP LESSER
    AMNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE WRN FCST AREA WHERE THERE IS A GREATER
    LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES WITHIN THE LOW LVLS…AND
    WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN…EXPECTING AN EVAPORATIONAL
    COOLING SCENARIO DOWN TO OR BELOW THE FRZG MARK AT THE SFC AS FAR
    EAST AS THE BOSTON SUBURBS/I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN
    THINKING…AM NOT CONFIDENT IN SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ACROSS THE
    WRN AND INTERIOR FCST AREA. AMNTS AROUND 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
    SURELY A BAND OF HIGHER AMNTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THETAE
    TROWALING COUPLED WITH EPV/MID-LYR FRONTOGENESIS LENDS TO LIFT
    WITHIN THE BETTER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -18C/. WHERE EXACTLY
    THIS SW-NE BAND ORIENTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN…BUT LIKELY ACROSS
    INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. ONE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WET
    SNOW DURING THE EVENING RUSH HR…AND ON TREES THAT REMAIN FOLIATED
    /CAN NOT RULE OUT POWER OUTAGES DUE TO WET SNOW AS WELL/. IF IT SNOW
    ACCUM RATES ARE QUITE MODEST…ONE CAN DISCOUNT SFC GROUND TEMPS.
    ACCUMS SHOULD OCCUR. BUT IF SNOW FALLS LIGHTLY…IT WILL LIKELY BE A
    FACTOR FOR SNOW ACCUM…WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW STICKING ONLY TO
    ELEVATED COLD SFCS. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE CHANGES TO ANTICIPATED
    SNOWS AS THE TRACK MODIFIES WITH LATER FCST GUIDANCE. THERE STILL
    REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFICS CONCERNING MASS AND THERMAL
    FIELDS.

  20. From the HPC:

    WITH A
    SURFACE RIDGE SETTING UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE…ENOUGH
    LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL WEDGE ITSELF ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
    BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM DELAWARE UP TO MAINE. THIS
    CURRENTLY INCLUDES SOME MAJOR METROPOLITAN CITIES INCLUDING
    PHILADELPHIA…NEW YORK CITY…AND BOSTON WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE.

  21. A track further east would be a lot better for those areas hit by Sandy. Now I am wondering does it track to far east that we only get grazed with precipitation.

  22. It would be nice if it stays over the fish and not impact recovery efforts. If it does not snow with this storm system I won’t be upset. We still got December, January, February, and March.

  24. I don’t a big fan of the NAM model. During the summer for thunderstorm days it seemed to created way more instability than the other models and for snowfall to me it over does it. It did nail a storm back in January 2011 so maybe this time it sees something the other models don’t.

    1. JJ,

      I was watching TWC last evening and Jim Cantore basically discounted
      the NAM completely.

      I used to swear by the NAM, so I don’t know what is going on.

      Like you say, perhaps it’s onto something.

      That’s what makes this so interesting.

  25. The biggest concerns with this system is the wind. I think the cape may have the highest rain amounts.have a nice day.

  29. As Tom mentioned above, Boston got down to 31 degrees this morning. If I am not mistaken last year Boston didn’t get below freezing for the first time until November 24th so we are a good 2 weeks ahead in that department. 🙂

    Also as Jimmy mentioned above, Boston’s first frost is November 7th so we are exactly where we should be for the season. Hopefully our snowfall this upcoming winter will be around normal as well. We will see.

  30. I know that coast line areas could experience wind gusts up to 60 mph. Does anyone know what the winds will be like for inland areas like Westwood, Norwood and Dedham (20 miles away from the coast line)?

      1. Thanks Captain. Basically those winds sound similar to that of Sandy and we even get as much rain as we had with Sandy. Ugh!

  31. I would not be surprised if wind advisory criteria is met for the interior. I am thinking winds 20-30 mph.

  32. Im glad too see the focus is now on the wind and not the snow. Unfortunately we need be worried about power outages and minor wind damage. The tempature will slowly be heading up the rest of the week.

    1. Agree. Snow is not a factor with this storm unless you live in the higher elevations of the manadnocks, Worcester hills, Berkshires and north and west. I don’t get too excited about a slush, sloppy 1/2 inch of snow. Yet I do enjoy those first flakes of the season as well.

  33. The snow is not a big deal but to me being a snowlover seeing those first flakes of the season makes me happy and hopes its the start of a snowy winter.

    1. Agree. You should be feeling good though. All these systems popping up, the cold air. It’s coming my friend. I think come march we will all be crying uncle. My unofficial guess is still 100 inches.

  34. One thing about the GFS……during the next couple of weeks, Canada never really reloads with any significant cold air.

            1. I was like that on Columbus day when everyone was off and I was working. Columbus day is the one and only day we don’t get

  35. After seeing Sandy on the models for days, this storm looks like a pushover, so I guess my idea of a “storm” is skewed a bit. Even so, I havent been impressed by the model outputs since early yesterday. The winds would be stronger if it were strengthening as it moved up the coast, but its actually going to be weakening when it gets here. Not saying the winds wont be a factor, but i dont think we hit the winds forecasted, even along the coastline. Unfortunately for those south of us in the areas hardest hit by Sandy, the storm reaches peak intensity as its moving off the carolinas and into NJ.

    2. So in your opinion, what do you think sustained winds will be like in inland areas? Gusts? And how about for the coastline? Thanks Acemaster.

  36. A pattern shift looks like it is going to happen. The warmth comes east and the cold heads west. The NAO is heading in the slightly positive category. Its tough to get any big time cold or storms to get going on the east coast with a setup like that.

      1. The UGH meter will come out if we get into mid December and we have not had an accumulating snowfall. I don’t get upset if there is no snow in November.

      1. I just hope its not like last winter where the pattern change was supposed to come, then pushed off till the next week, then we get headlines like, “pattern change coming!” “winter will be here next week!”….and it never came 🙁

    3. My “gut instinct” leads me to believe that the warmup/+NAO change is a tease. It will swing positive but then revert back to negative after 14-21 days, with winter arriving in earnest not only in temps but precip as well shortly thereafter Thanksgiving. Just a feeling, going to dig through info to see if it has any support.

    2. Is that 10-26 for MA with the small metrowest area around 10? But big winds south of here where the damage is Captain? I sure hope I read that wrong.

      1. Yes, but it was based off the 12Z GFS @1PM EST for what it is worth. Mostly 21-26 mph for central/eastern MA away from the coast.

  41. 12Z EURO looks weird once again. Storm just dissolves off our coast. Couple inches of snow in central/western MA on that run. Coastal winds have also come down a bit.

    1. It looks like a full occlusion may happen and the storm literally matures and dies right there. The energy would transfer N & E along a lobe in the cut off upper low.

  42. Hmmm

    Models all over the place again.

    18Z Nam virtually hugs the coast and is warm.
    12Z Ukmet if off shore, almost OTS
    12Z Canadian, again, most robust with precip and snow
    12Z Euro has just a touch of snow for boston, but a couple of inches interior.

    So, what will happen????

  43. Hi all! Very busy day in TK-land. Too boring to tell about it here.

    I realize that there is still uncertainty and that my posted forecast may not be what exactly happens. I’ll be examining the data in the next hour or so and posting a new blog while I listen to the music of Howard Jones & Eric Johnson. Just thought I’d toss those artists out there – 2 great ones. 🙂

  44. Brett Anderson’s blog this afternoon was interesting. With the upcoming pattern shift, there are more chances for widespread snow in the plains of southern Canada and the northern plains and upper midwest of the US. He says establishing early season snows in this area is important in maintaining arctic airmasses that cross the country into the winter. This is one thing that was lacking last winter. We would sometimes get air from that there, but with the lack of snow practically everywhere in southern Cananda and the northern tier of the US, the air masses were able to moderate before arriving here.

    1. I’m glad somebody is making note of that. It is going to contribute to what will probably end up a cold/dry winter in New England.

    1. Hope your afib is under control. Would you like to tell us what your take is on tomorrow’s impending storm?

      1. I am doing fine.

        I had to put off the blog update for a while. A few things to take care of. Will be hitting the blog after dinner while I watch the election stuff. Fun times. 😉

        My take though: Starts as mix/snow away from the coast, rain to the SE, pushes northwestward, eventually ends up rain in the entire forecast area. Max snow amounts slushy coating to 1 inch 95/495, 1-3 inches higher elevations outside 495, of course mainly on grassy areas. All washed away by Thursday morning except a few slush patches on the hill peaks.

        Top wind gusts: 30-50 east coast MA/NH, 40-60 CC, Islands, & RI. And those are gusts, not sustained.

        Coastal flooding: minimal.

        Rain/melted: 0.50-1.50, locally heavier to the SE.

        Minor to moderate impact overall. Moderate only being in a few cases where weak trees cause a few power outages and when max snow falls in the hills, as well as some street flooding from leaf-clogged drains.

        1. Thanks TK. No problems with the snow on the trees that still have leaves. There are a surprising number of them.

    1. Oh gosh today was crazy and I didn’t put two others in also. I will tomorrow. Someone yell at me if I forget please

      1. I did. And again no snow around here. I want it as well. I told you last night no accumulation for Boston, south. Snow showers yes.oh Im not the only one here who thinks that. The snow will come. Have a nice night. Don’t forget too vote.

  50. Again I like some of these snow numbers coming in. Tk could you explain your cold and dry comment on this winter. So to me dry is lack of precipitation of any kind. I’m assuming your going with normal snowfall. I believe that is what your trusted coworker said I think, and you seemed to agree. Thanks. Glad your feeling better.

    1. Hi John,

      I’m just throwing this out there…..

      Lets go with 100 inches of snow. Since Logan is right on the water, I think its fair to assume that a majority of that snowfall would fall with temps around 30F, leading to a ratio of 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of rain. We can even account for a few dry, powdery snow events accounting for 20 inches of snow using only 1 inch of rain. So…….to get 100 inches of snow at Logan, that requires 9 inches of melted precip.

      After this event, the rest of November looks milder, so, most of the snow is likely to fall over a 4 month period ( Dec thru March ), meaning about 2.25 melted inches of precip, as snow, each month.

      However, its probably reasonable that not every precip event all winter is going to be snow, and so it might be fair to expect some rain as well. By the time one adds in a projection for rain events, then, its going to create monthly precip totals that havent been too common lately.

      I guess what I’m saying is, mathematically, going against long term averages, its tough to get high seasonal snow totals by the coast in New England, especially when our monthly precip totals have been below average quite consistently for several months now.

      1. That’s it, I’m going with 1 inch! (Not my final answer) Good points Tom. When u break it down like that, it seems unlikely we get extremely high snow totals.

      3. How do I go against a math teacher, LOL. How’s it going tom. So I was trying to get some snow totals from previous winters, unfortunately had no luck. If we have a winter like 2010/2011 the 100 inches would come close, I want to see that winter’s total. I have not looked at the latest el Nino developments in a few weeks.part of my prediction was the development of a weak el Nino forming, which if it formed it would give us a fairly decent shot of some very snowy weather, and cold as well. I ed to check the status on that. Now there isotherinformaionwas reviewing over the summer/fall to steer me with the high amounts. I honestly believe if the week el Nino develops, the nao and other teloconects come togeather just right , we will have that high snow totals that I am predicting. Big if Tom, but going with it as of now. Again need too check the status of that wrak

        1. I thought it was a vast improvement Tom. I can sleep thinking about snow but now about the election coverage. I had to turn to the cooking channel.

    2. My reasoning is that I’m in strong agreement with Joe D’Aleo’s forecast. Taking all the indices into account, it displays a predominant trough/ridge/trough pattern across the Lower 48, frequent blocking, and a tendency for cut offs on or just off the East Coast. I think in New England the northern stream is strong and often NW-SE, i.e., trough axis just to the east, and a southern stream cut off that is often too far south to nail New England with big snows. All of the analogs show Boston’s snow mainly in the 33-55 inch range. Not as wide a range as you often see in a sample set of analogs for a pattern. To me this is a strong signal of cold, below normal precip, and near normal snow for Boston. So I guess I’m starting to give away my winter forecast and snow prediction for Boston.

  51. After last winter I will be happy with normal. I still think below normal snowfall but closer to normal.

  52. Pull up the 18z GFS, and go to 300 hours. That is the overall pattern I think we’ll be seeing this winter.

    1. Trough, ridge, trough with phasing occurring far too late and east to give us any appreciable snows. Boooooo

  53. I will be happy with two major storms or even on blockbuster. But then I guess just that would get us to close to normal.

  54. You used the phrase “gale force” and I love that word gale. It sounds like a type of bird. It is such a pretty word.

    Haha I need sleep…:D

    It was chilly today, but definitely not as bad as yesterday! Should I wear my winter jacket tomorrow?

  55. Today my son and I received an autographed set of CDs called Music For Local Forecast by Trammell Starks. 39 songs in their entirety, each of them having been featured on WeatherScan on cable (the musical continuous local forecast version of TWC). 🙂

  58. Winter Weather Advisories up for parts of SNE!
    Level 1 snow event for the places that receive snow (no more than 4 inches)

  62. Snow Flakes in the air in Norwood. Very few but you can see them when the wind dies down. First flakes of the season.

      1. John, should I more accurately define my posts for you? Should I say first flakes of the season “For Me” or could that simply be implied?

    2. none here yet but I may spend the day looking out the window in hopes of seeing just one and not get much work done!

  63. I tried to go through the comments for the past few days and capture all predictions. I apologize if I missed you. Please make sure your name and total is below. Charlie, for some reason I have you two times. Which one do you prefer? Thank you.

    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    tjammer 54.0
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    Philip 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Joshua 27.0
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.7
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

  66. David Brown
    Love this note from the National Weather Service:

    ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN REGION

    TO: ALL ER WFOS

    TWC HAS NAMED THE NOR`EASTER “ATHENA..” THE NWS DOES NOT USE NAME
    WINTER STORMS IN OUR PRODUCTS. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM USING THE TERM
    ATHENA IN ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS.

    I personally think it is ridiculous for TWC to name storms on their own..it takes hype to a whole new level.

  67. Are they going to start naming tornados too?

    I thought the point of naming tropical systems was b/c you may have a few at a time that are active and you want to avoid confusion.

    I do not believe this translates well to winter storms. If the storm is significant enough, it well go down in history as the “Blizzard of ’78” or the “April Fool’s Storm.”

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