Wednesday AM Update

146 Comments

7:28AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain develops SE to NW midday-afternoon but mix/snow in the 95/495 belt. Highs reach 50 Cape Cod but struggle to upper 30s interior southern NH, 40s by late day most areas. Wind NE increasing to 15-35 MPH but gusts 40-55 MPH by late day especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix to rain inland, rain elsewhere, may be heavy for a time. Snow accumulation slushy coating to 1 inch 95/495, 1-3 inches in some of the highest elevations, mainly on grassy areas. Overnight rain tapers to drizzle and periods of lighter rain. Temperatures steady. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH with strong gusts continuing especially in coastal locations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Low 51. High 60.

146 thoughts on “Wednesday AM Update”

  1. Thanks for the update TK.

    Waiting for 12Z runs, but most models have it cold enough above
    to support snow, at least for the first part of the storm. Problem is the
    strong off shore winds ahead of the system are transporting milder ocean air in.
    Serious boundarly layer issues abound. Ocean temps are around 52-53 Degrees.
    We would need a North Wind near the coast. By the time we get a North wind,
    the upper levels will have warmed, or so it looks right now.

    Inland, well that’s a different story.

    We shall see.

  3. 12Z NAM at 7PM this evening:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121107%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=009&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F07%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    Wind about NNE. Hmm Perhaps just inland a few miles, there “might” be some snow or mix? Inland sure to have some snow, before later on upper levels warm and it
    goes over to rain anyway.

  5. So North posted on the previous blog entry TWC has officially named this storm “Athena”

    What?!?!? 😯

  6. Wind gusting to 51 on Nantucket and some very heavy precip pivoting into LI right now.

    Also noticed the City of Philadelphia is under a Winter Storm Warning for 3-5″ of snow!

  7. Well I probably won’t be joining in on the fun at LSC, since the precip will have a hard time making it up here. With the dry air, we made it down to 13 last night.
    My snowfall prediction for Boston this winter is 45″.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    I just heard it on TWC, too. Honestly, I didn’t think they were that serious in naming winter storms. Athena. Pretty name. But good grief. The only icons I know how to make on my computer are 🙁 or 🙂 . If I could I would make one that would be, like, wow! or you have got to be kidding!

    I am looking forward to seeing some snow in the air, ‘though.

  10. Do we already have a coastal front?

    Look at the 10AM Obs for Boston:

    Last Updated: Nov 7 2012, 9:54 am EST
    Wed, 07 Nov 2012 09:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Overcast and Breezy
    Temperature: 44.0 °F (6.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 68 %
    Wind: from the Northeast at 23.0 gusting to 34.5 MPH

    And compare with Bedford, about what 15-20 Miles inland?

    Last Updated: Nov 7 2012, 9:56 am EST
    Wed, 07 Nov 2012 09:56:00 -0500
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: 35.0 °F (1.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 24.1 °F (-4.4 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 64 %
    Wind: from the North at 15.0 gusting to 25.3 MPH

  11. Hmmm.

    Just looking at the 12Z GFS….

    Here is the surface chart with 850MB temps at 9PM this evening:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F07%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=015&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

    Here is the 10Meter (about 37 Feet up) wind chart at 9PM:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121107%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_012_10m_wnd_precip_l.gif&fcast=012&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=11%2F07%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=51&nextImage=yes

    Notice That the wind has a Westerly component.

    If the GFS verifies, there will be some snow flying this evening, even in Boston!

  13. From the NWS:

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    — Changed Discussion –1030 AM UPDATE…

    MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
    EVENING. LOW DEW POINTS INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME EVAPORATIVE
    COOLING AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
    WHAT THIS MEANS IS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION STAYING
    ALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

  14. I asked yesterday about the snow – if even a wet inch or two – could affect the trees with their leaves still on them but I was thinking about the ones in my yard and figure that they still have their leaves because they are the healthiest ones and even in the Halloween storm had limited if any limbs break.

  15. Notice the last 4 obs from Boston as the wind is BACKING towards
    the North over time. At 6:54 AM wind was at 52 Degrees and by 9:54 AM,
    the wind was at 32 Degrees, 20 degrees more towars the North!

    071522 0322G30
    071454 0420G30 G 34
    071354 0525G33 G 37
    071254 0520G31 G 35
    071154 0520G31 G 31

      1. Charlie,

        Doesn’t matter. The dew point is low. It is cold above.
        When the rain get’s going there will be evaporational cooling.
        You’ll see snow flakes mixing in soon.

            2. The column is not saturated enough just yet to produce precip but it is snowing from above in those locales.

              1. I just wonder about the forward movement of the precip. By the time the column is saturated enough, we might not have the precip around anymore, or much lighter anyways

                1. The column saturates quite quickly. We aren’t dealing with dew points in the teens. In most cases they are in the low 30s.

    1. Started immediately as snow here and my office is only at 150′ elevation. There was some virga at first but didn’t take long for the snow to start reaching the ground.

        1. I live in Westwood. Even if it begins as rain, expect the cooler air to be drawn down to the surface quickly changing the rain to at least a rain/snow mix or all snow even in Easton. It will be close for you down there.

          1. I hope so! Its amazing how big of a difference just 15 or so miles makes in terms of rain/snow lines around here. I could leave work in Walpole in a whiteout, and get home in Easton to a pouring rain. And trust me, its happened many times before.

            1. I’ve seen it too. I used to live in Stoughton on the Easton line. The western side of the town could snow while on the east it could rain. Strange but every mile makes a difference. I think in this case however, many locales could see rain changing to a mix/snow due to cooling from above before going back to rain late this afternoon except for outside of 495.

  19. I have traveled south towards Attleboro and it is has turned into more of a light rain, but spotty temp is down to 44

  20. Snow has picked up rapidly. Visibility way down and it has started accumulating on colder surfaces (picnic tables, etc). Several of the schools in the area have announced early dismissals.

    Snowing all the way down to the shore, even at New Haven and Bridgeport now! I’ve noticed several observing stations in SNE reporting northerly winds as opposed to northwest.

      1. And a northerly wind is key. If it remained that way, SNE would be looking at all snow for the duration but this is only temporary. Nevertheless, it’s that northerly component that should result in mostly snow at the onset for many.

  22. HEAVY snow in manchester, CT. An intense band has set up along I-84. Huge flakes. Cars, grass, and shaded walkways are white already. The intensity of the snow really caught me off guard!

  27. Snowing moderately in Woonsocket, RI. Temp down to 35. Blustery with winds gusting to 25 mph. Per radar, it should be raining but it’s not picking up the evaporational cooling.

  28. Take not of steady, persistent band of moderate to heavy snow over CT. Accumulations should increase down there.

  31. It has changed to mostly snow here in na but no accumulation, there is rain mixing in as well, temp down to 40 🙂

    2. hmmm Charlie, are u SURE it was snowing in NA?? 😛 Its been a steady cold rain in Walpole, no snow mixing yet. Feels like a typical Nov day

      2. I have no proof but that I ran into the house and yelled for my son and said come outside and he was saying with a smile its snowing but it’s raining now 🙂

  34. Its going to take the precipitation a long time to start going extremely dry here even though we are aprently in the blue, we do have the wind. There has been the occastional snow flake but there not really noticable. If it snows and there is wind then i would not be surprised if there are low visabilities right now thinking up to 1 inch for me even though several models are hinting at 2-4 Euro and gfs are both saying at least 2 inches for me. but i do not think it would happen.

  35. Some pretty good radar echos coming ashore just south of Atlantic City, almost in the exact place Sandy made landfall. Looks like some very heavy rain/sleet. Def not what they need down there.

    1. Ace,

      I had to go home at lunch (Damn squirrel in the attic. Wife called me in a panic! I caught it and got rid of it!)

      Anyhow, while I was eating lunch I was watching TWC. The met (Don’t remember which one) indicated that those bright echos were melting snow
      coming down.

      1. Sorry about the squirrel! We had one in the attic a few years ago too, had babies and everything. Thats pretty cool the radar picks up on that, thats some serious melting going on

  36. 12Z Euro has a GOOD slug of SNOW for BOSTON tonight.
    It depicts the rain changing over and giving Boston some 4-6 inches of snow.

    Now is the Euro for real OR is it out to lunch?

    We’ll what the other models say.

  37. I am thinking level 1 snow event which is 4 inches and under. I see TWC has named this storm. All I got to say is are you kidding me. This is not major snow event for any area that receives snow. This is not Little Rock Arkansas.

    1. Couldnt agree with u more JJ. By naming this storm, its laughable. They are losing a lot of credibility as far as im concerned. If they keep naming these little ones, they are 1) going to mislead people into thinking its worse than it is, and next time they wont listen 2) going to run out of names very quickly

      1. The only up side I see is there might eventually be a storm named Vicki. I kind of like the idea of it being a winter storm 🙂 I think there might have been a Hurricane Victoria but I may have confused that with a temper tantrum I had when younger.

        Seriously, though, the general public is down on meteorologists and hype enough without deliberately adding to it. Foolish idea.

  39. storm is just kind of sitting there.

    echos keep drying up before reaching central mass. nothing here so far

  40. Got a solid inch of snow here in Manchester, CT under that initial heavy band. Everything is white and secondary roads are slushy. Snow has now lightened up considerably as a dry slot has moved in and the intense band has shifted NW. Looks like the radar is filling in behind it over RI though.

  44. I don’t think enough precipitation will be around to produce 4-6 inches of snow. With a snow ratio of less than 5-1 it would require heavy precip. Additionally, this storm seems to be weakening and has to overcome quite a bit of dry air aloft. I do not think this storm will live up to its potential.

    2. That may very well be. Just reporting results of Euro model.
      The Euro keeps it pretty intense for awhile.

      We shall see.

  45. TWC justification for naming this “winter storm” is kinda bogus IMO. Their main reasoning is bc its affecting the same areas affected by Sandy. They said it will help raise awareness. I think the last thing those people need is another name to a storm.

  48. 2PM Boston Obs:

    5 -RA 39 32 0326G37

    That is temp 39, light rain, depoint 32 winds NE at 30 degrees with wind
    at 26knots, gusting to 37 knots.

    I suspect snow flakes coming soon!

  49. Light to moderate snow for the past 90 minutes or so in Smithfield, RI, sticking to grass – roads are wet. Rain/Snow axis appears to be on a few miles north of the I-95 corridor (PVD/BOS) based on radar.

        1. It’s been snowing in Woonsocket light to moderately for two hours with no accumulation–wet roads–wet grass–wet car tops. The ground is just too warm. You aren’t missing too much. Perhaps if it’s still snowing when the sun sets we may see small accumulations.

        2. Ace there were a fair amount of snowflakes in Holliston right through to Uxbridge this morning. We didn’t have any either but I am just now seeing some in Framingham!!!!

          1. Vicki, have u been having a steady precipitation or is this the first thing to fall from the sky today?

            Also, could u put me in for 25.9″ of snow for this winter 🙂

            1. I put you down and it’s pretty much the first precip we’ve seen all day unless it was very light and I couldn’t see it.

    1. Then more bands of the ocean that may rotate into those areas. I would not be surprised to hear reports of 4 5 inches out
      of those areas especially the elevated areas.

        1. Band of VERY HEAVY precip heading NW. Currently
          just about to Woonsocket. (presumably it would be snow there)

          1. Radar echos indicate rain but it’s been snow here all day. Coming down at a good clip. Heavy band remaining stationary. However, ground still wet except a dusting forming on grassy surfaces and car tops. It’s having a hard time overcoming warm ground temps. If this were to set up after sunset, snow could begin to accumulate.

  56. Finally it’s snowing!! First flakes of the season!!

    …for me anyways 😉 (that was for u coastal)

  58. finally started snowing in Worcester. It took long enough!

    Dewpoint has been going down all day. Started at 20 and now down to 15. Lots of dry air.

  59. Crazy wind and snow in Framingham – roofs have a light coating. Uxbridge has a coating on the decks and lawns.

  63. Storm appears to be moving more east than northeast. Too much dry air to overcome in southern NH northward. Perhaps storm is shifting a bit more to the east than they thought?

    2. The high pressure area to the north is so strong that i think the storm is running out of real estate; i.e, viable atmosphere to drop precip. Its getting pushed down and away almost.

  64. Its amazing the places on the Jersey Shore who got hit hard by Sandy are now getting snow a week later.

    1. I was just talking to a co-worker about that. It really is amazing. Nothing would surprise me anymore weatherwise.

  65. Thankfully this pattern is going to change and give the places effected by Sandy a much needed break.

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